England’s first ever red warning for extreme heat on Monday and Tuesday.

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

What's the evidence it's man made ? And the 'exponential' increase you refer to is something like 1 degree in 220 years.

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Where is the evidence that widespread insect loss is man made?

And if it isn't, what can we do about it?

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Originally Posted by rudy gestede

You’re just being deliberately obtuse. Today is another point on that pattern, the fact today is happening is driven by climate change.

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I'm not being obtuse. I made a simple distinction between individual days and trends.

I hate analogies, but here's one anyway.

The sea wall and railway track at Dawlish has been smashed to pieces semi regularly for over a hundred years. If you picked one of the recent destructions at random it wouldn't really show anything out of the ordinary as it's happened through history. The strong proof that the climate is changing is the regularity with which it is now being destroyed.

I can't for the life of me work out why you have such an issue with what I'm saying. We're both in agreement that climate change is happening.

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

What's the evidence it's man made ? And the 'exponential' increase you refer to is something like 1 degree in 220 years.

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No it’s massively outside the average temperatures we saw throughout most of history. There was a step change after the start of the industrial revolution.

The Earth heated up and cooled down prior to that but it was within a limit mostly caused by the slight changes in the earth’s position in its orbit.

What evidence do you want to see, it can be seen on plenty of charts or in the individual data points.

What makes you think it isn’t man made?

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Originally Posted by chrisp_1927

I'm not being obtuse. I made a simple distinction between individual days and trends.

I hate analogies, but here's one anyway.

The sea wall and railway track at Dawlish has been smashed to pieces semi regularly for over a hundred years. If you picked one of the recent destructions at random it wouldn't really show anything out of the ordinary as it's happened through history. The strong proof that the climate is changing is the regularity with which it is now being destroyed.

I can't for the life of me work out why you have such an issue with what I'm saying. We're both in agreement that climate change is happening.

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Because you’re trying to say today isn’t caused by climate change when it is and there is plenty of evidence to make that claim.

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Originally Posted by rudy gestede

Because you’re trying to say today isn’t caused by climate change when it is and there is plenty of evidence to make that claim.

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Maybe I could have been clearer, my writing style is not the best and it's compounded by trying to type quickly whilst on the train. But I emphatically did not say that today is not due to climate change. In my first message i said it could be or could not be, but that the trends suggest we are in for much more extreme weather like this.
In my second message I was more explicit and said i thought it was highly likely that today was caused by climate change but we can't be 100% sure. My point really was just that an individual event can't be judged on its own, it's the accumulation of them that is the strong proof.



The reason I make this point is because the deniers are always quick to jump on a run of mild days to proclaim their 'what climate change ' nonsense' whilst completing disregarding the trends that show we are heating up. Just think it's important not to fall into the dame habits as them by proclaiming the importance of an individual day or 2.

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Originally Posted by chrisp_1927

Maybe you read it differently to me. But my reading of it he appears to be saying that climate change makes these events more likely to happen. He doesn't say that today is 100% climate change, he says that climate change makes it probable we will experience lots of days like this.

I didn't blow this point up, yourself and rudy decided to seize on it. I can't see where what I said is that far different from the article you link. Trends show climate change is real, not an individual day or 2. Those trends are happening.

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I do read it a bit differently and I think we're getting into semantics now. I was really just querying why you felt the need to dismiss the association between the current short-term record temperatures and climate change as "poor science", when an eminent Met Office scientist is, it seems, drawing precisely the same links.

I think it's actually poor science to demand it's 100% proven before connecting the two as I don't think that is actually how science works. Experts in the field researched it, predicted it and it's now happening. That's really where we are and why we're talking about it in this way I think.

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Originally Posted by Baloo

I do read it a bit differently and I think we're getting into semantics now. I was really just querying why you felt the need to dismiss the association between the current short-term record temperatures and climate change as "poor science", when an eminent Met Office scientist is, it seems, drawing precisely the same links.

I think it's actually poor science to demand it's 100% proven before connecting the two as I don't think that is actually how science works. Experts in the field researched it, predicted it and it's now happening. That's really where we are and why we're talking about it in this way I think.

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I'm making the distinction between individual days and trends. That's the same as your guy in the article is doing. It's the accumulation of record days that are worrying. 1 or 2 hot days is something and nothing, the fact they keep happening is the worry.

I'm not demanding it's 100% proven, I was pointing out that it can't be proven over a 2 day sample. The semantics are not coming from me, my point had remained the same. You have decided you disagree with what I'm saying despite the fact that we actually agree.

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Originally Posted by chrisp_1927

I'm making the distinction between individual days and trends. That's the same as your guy in the article is doing. It's the accumulation of record days that are worrying. 1 or 2 hot days is something and nothing, the fact they keep happening is the worry.

I'm not demanding it's 100% proven, I was pointing out that it can't be proven over a 2 day sample. The semantics are not coming from me, my point had remained the same. You have decided you disagree with what I'm saying despite the fact that we actually agree.

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Yes, I think we all understand the distinction between days and trends, even the Met Office scientist who started blabbering-on about climate change over "something and nothing".

Quote:

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Originally Posted by chrisp_1927

I'm making the distinction between individual days and trends. That's the same as your guy in the article is doing. It's the accumulation of record days that are worrying. 1 or 2 hot days is something and nothing, the fact they keep happening is the worry.

I'm not demanding it's 100% proven, I was pointing out that it can't be proven over a 2 day sample. The semantics are not coming from me, my point had remained the same. You have decided you disagree with what I'm saying despite the fact that we actually agree.

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But no one is proving it over a two day sample it’s the latest list in things caused by climate change.

If it was just today and nothing else it wouldn’t be “good science” but it isn’t it’s the latest outlier in years of outliers.

Be thankful it's not snowing.
Imagine trying to shovel snow in this heat!

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Originally Posted by rudy gestede

But no one is proving it over a two day sample it’s the latest list in things caused by climate change.

If it was just today and nothing else it wouldn’t be “good science” but it isn’t it’s the latest outlier in years of outliers.

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The scientists aren't suggesting it's proven over 2 days, but lots of armchair commentators and a few idiots on the news are. That was literally my point, that I disagree with people who hold up 2 days as proof. I fully accept the scientific concensus, I've never suggested otherwise. I can't for the life of me understand why the 2 of you are so determined to jump all over this.

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Originally Posted by Baloo

Yes, I think we all understand the distinction between days and trends, even the Met Office scientist who started blabbering-on about climate change over "something and nothing".

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You obviously don't. Because I've never once said I don't believe in the scientific concensus that climate change is real and happening. My one and only point was that 2 days are not the proof.

The blabbering on point you make is quite frankly pathetic. It was an interesting article, it's not his or my fault that you don't understand it.


Anyway, I'm out. Because I can't for the life of me actually understand where the point of difference between us is.

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Originally Posted by chrisp_1927

You obviously don't. Because I've never once said I don't believe in the scientific concensus that climate change is real and happening. My one and only point was that 2 days are not the proof.

The blabbering on point you make is quite frankly pathetic. It was an interesting article, it's not his or my fault that you don't understand it.


Anyway, I'm out. Because I can't for the life of me actually understand where the point of difference between us is.

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I really didn't accuse you of that. I've said a number of times that I simply responded to your reference to 'poor science'. It really is as simple as that but we keep skirting around it. Anyway, let's move on.

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

What's the evidence it's man made ? And the 'exponential' increase you refer to is something like 1 degree in 220 years.

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there is lots of evidence that it is man made? do you genuinely not know what it is?

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Originally Posted by Wash DC Blue

Be thankful it's not snowing.
Imagine trying to shovel snow in this heat!

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Finally a sensible post.
Who'd have thought a thread about the weather would turn out to be a 15-pager (so far!)

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Originally Posted by Baloo

I really didn't accuse you of that. I've said a number of times that I simply responded to your reference to 'poor science'. It really is as simple as that. Anyway, let's move on.

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Agreed, was bad wording on my part tbf.

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Originally Posted by bobh

Finally a sensible post.
Who'd have thought a thread about the weather would turn out to be a 15-pager (so far!)

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With these kind of threads, I find that when it rains, it pours.

It’s funny that the comments on the daily mail website parrot the poor points being made in here:

It’s just 2 days
It’s called summer stop moaning
Have you ever been to Benidorm it’s warm there
The earth has always got hotter and colder
No evidence it’s man made

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Originally Posted by bobh

Finally a sensible post.
Who'd have thought a thread about the weather would turn out to be a 15-pager (so far!)

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Threads on the weather have been getting longer and longer. This one may, might, could, be a record. Before 1999 there were NO threads about the weather.

Are these threads a result of man made activity ? I'd say so..

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

People love a drama, and the past two weeks the media, politicians, etc. have been acting like the big drama queens they are. Next they'll be painting red crosses on our doors and have bin men come road calling for the dead - then again they'll probably leave them in the gutter for being put in the wrong colour coffin..

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3rd of March 2020 says anyone worrying is a drama queen

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Ah, yes, we'll be back to Brexit and the 17 million of us who were duped next.

Probably doesn't apply to you because I think from what you said some time back, you used to work in the Patent office/ONS [???] - forgive me if I'm wrong - but as it stands the FTSE has lost 30% in the last 4 weeks. If people with personal pensions were buying annuities today they could have lost 30% of their pension fund. Why ? because everyone runs around making a huge drama, coming across all serious like they're Churchill in 1940, when the reality is 6 people have died in the UK in the past month - all from other complications.

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4th March 2020 compares it to brexit

If “A Quiet Nostradamus” is sticking to form I can only assume the sun will engulf is about this time next week

There was a graphic on the forecast the other day which showed that the UK record temperature had only been broken 3 times in over 100 years.
35.9c in ~ 1910, 37.5 in 2003 then 37.8 in 2019. However since 2003, the old 1910 record has since been exceeded about another 10 times.
The next couple of days isn't a one off. Extremes are definitely becoming more frequent.

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Originally Posted by lardy

Where is the evidence that widespread insect loss is man made?

And if it isn't, what can we do about it?

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Put it this way. Climate change isn't going to affect any of us. China is building coal fired power stations like they've gone out of fashion. The UK produces only around 1% of the World's co2. Even it it were man made, you can't do anything about it. All the environmental disasters around the corner can be averted, but it's of no interest to the climate change lobby.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Put it this way. Climate change isn't going to affect any of us. China is building coal fired power stations like they've gone out of fashion. The UK produces only around 1% of the World's co2. Even it it were man made, you can't do anything about it. All the environmental disasters around the corner can be averted, but it's of no interest to the climate change lobby.

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China gets around 30% of its current energy from renewables and it is rising

Quote:

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Put it this way. Climate change isn't going to affect any of us. China is building coal fired power stations like they've gone out of fashion. The UK produces only around 1% of the World's co2. Even it it were man made, you can't do anything about it. All the environmental disasters around the corner can be averted, but it's of no interest to the climate change lobby.

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What do you mean?

Us = people in the UK
Us = humankind

Quote:

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Put it this way. Climate change isn't going to affect any of us. China is building coal fired power stations like they've gone out of fashion. The UK produces only around 1% of the World's co2. Even it it were man made, you can't do anything about it. All the environmental disasters around the corner can be averted, but it's of no interest to the climate change lobby.

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And I'm not sure how your "put it this way" is even close to my question about insect loss :shrug:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Put it this way. Climate change isn't going to affect any of us. China is building coal fired power stations like they've gone out of fashion. The UK produces only around 1% of the World's co2. Even it it were man made, you can't do anything about it. All the environmental disasters around the corner can be averted, but it's of no interest to the climate change lobby.

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Absolutely mental post. Where to even start.

Firstly it will affect every single person on the planet through increased difficulties in growing crops, to sea level rises to oceans turning more acidic due to increased Co2 absorption which will have devastating consequences in marine life and us in the process. Not to mention increased instances of extreme weather.

'Even if it were man made you can't do anything about it'

Of course we can, increased renewable and nuclear power. We can solve this issue but we choose not to so we can keep big oil rich.

'All the environmental disasters can be averted'

Care to expand on that?

'But it's of no interest to the climate lobby'

What on earth are you talking about?

I've said it before on this forum and I'll say it again, we have severe issues in our society that for some reason older generations are hell bent on stopping solutions to these problems, the boomer generation will go down as the most selfish pig ignorant generation in the history of the planet.

https://www.bigissue.com/news/enviro...-like-in-2050/

An interesting read, all hypothetical of course but does make you think what the world could be like in 25/30 years.

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Originally Posted by Doucas

Absolutely mental post. Where to even start.

Firstly it will affect every single person on the planet through increased difficulties in growing crops, to sea level rises to oceans turning more acidic due to increased Co2 absorption which will have devastating consequences in marine life and us in the process. Not to mention increased instances of extreme weather.

'Even if it were man made you can't do anything about it'

Of course we can, increased renewable and nuclear power. We can solve this issue but we choose not to so we can keep big oil rich.

'All the environmental disasters can be averted'

Care to expand on that?

'But it's of no interest to the climate lobby'

What on earth are you talking about?

I've said it before on this forum and I'll say it again, we have severe issues in our society that for some reason older generations are hell bent on stopping solutions to these problems, the boomer generation will go down as the most selfish pig ignorant generation in the history of the planet.

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his 1st point ( or 2nd if you choose ) was this

China is building coal fired power stations like they've gone out of fashion

Now this point looks to be fairly true, according to "newscientist " article earlier the year, they say that China is building more than 1/2 the worlds new coal power stations, 52 per cent of the 176 gigawatts of coal capacity under construction in 20 countries last year.

when most of the world pledged to " cut back " on coal power stations in Glasgow at COP26, China ( and India ) were watering it down, the world is making a attempt, but with China ( and India ) kicking the can down the road for another 5 Years before change, it hardly surprising to hear they are still plowing on with the coal powered power stations

I can see how people in the UK ( who do make a effort to recycle and attempt to be a little greener ) think, well look at china, what I can do it a mere drop in the ocean compared the the damage the Chinese are doing

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blue matt

his 1st point ( or 2nd if you choose ) was this

China is building coal fired power stations like they've gone out of fashion

Now this point looks to be fairly true, according to "newscientist " article earlier the year, they say that China is building more than 1/2 the worlds new coal power stations, 52 per cent of the 176 gigawatts of coal capacity under construction in 20 countries last year.

when most of the world pledged to " cut back " on coal power stations in Glasgow at COP26, China ( and India ) were watering it down, the world is making a attempt, but with China ( and India ) kicking the can down the road for another 5 Years before change, it hardly surprising to hear they are still plowing on with the coal powered power stations

I can see how people in the UK ( who do make a effort to recycle and attempt to be a little greener ) think, well look at china, what I can do it a mere drop in the ocean compared the the damage the Chinese are doing

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China are doing a lot, they are still committed to peak carbon by 2030 and completely carbon neutral by 2060. that isn't coming without significant effort and investment, while at the same time raising the living standards of significant chunks of the population.
if you look into the detail of it it is pretty impressive what they are looking to achieve

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Doucas

Absolutely mental post. Where to even start.

Firstly it will affect every single person on the planet through increased difficulties in growing crops, to sea level rises to oceans turning more acidic due to increased Co2 absorption which will have devastating consequences in marine life and us in the process. Not to mention increased instances of extreme weather.

'Even if it were man made you can't do anything about it'

Of course we can, increased renewable and nuclear power. We can solve this issue but we choose not to so we can keep big oil rich.

'All the environmental disasters can be averted'

Care to expand on that?

'But it's of no interest to the climate lobby'

What on earth are you talking about?

I've said it before on this forum and I'll say it again, we have severe issues in our society that for some reason older generations are hell bent on stopping solutions to these problems, the boomer generation will go down as the most selfish pig ignorant generation in the history of the planet.

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There you are, getting abusive again.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rjk

China are doing a lot, they are still committed to peak carbon by 2030 and completely carbon neutral by 2060. that isn't coming without significant effort and investment, while at the same time raising the living standards of significant chunks of the population.
if you look into the detail of it it is pretty impressive what they are looking to achieve

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I'll take your world for it, yet it still looks like they are kicking the can down the road for a while, 52% of the worlds coal power station, while we in the UK sort out and recycle all our glass, plastics, tins etc etc , as I said, I can see how people look at china and think " why do we ( in the UK ) bother

oh and if you think China will achieve being carbon neutral, I'd love a pint of what you are drinking, its not going to happen

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

There you are, getting abusive again.

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Deflect, deflect and deflect.

Meanwhile in care homes

https://twitter.com/statsjamie/statu...Kls3IvuL7-Xyyg

WTAF ?

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Originally Posted by Citizen's Nephew

31 degrees in sunny Grangetown!!
Edit: no vineyards though

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Hardly any bloody pubs either, Cardiff, outside the city centre, is becoming a latter day Temperance Town...........am I on the right thread? Have I had my tea?

Pretty sure David Cotterill has about 5 accounts on this forum judging by his latest tweet.

https://twitter.com/cotterill_david/...rQuKQZ2AQ&s=19

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Originally Posted by Doucas

Pretty sure David Cotterill has about 5 accounts on this forum judging by his latest tweet.

https://twitter.com/cotterill_david/...rQuKQZ2AQ&s=19

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Everyone in the world is making themselves stupid by spending too long on the internet and watching nutters on YouTube.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Doucas

Because you ignored it before, I'll ask again

What do you hear/see when you see the fact that 99% of scientists say this is happening due to man.

Do you not believe the 99% figure? I'm trying to understand how anyone can see that and just dismiss it as easily as you do. What's the thought process?

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From the links you provided. It's not 99% of scientists but 99% of those funded to do peer reviewed papers.
Radio 4 today reported that the majority of scientists agree that climate change is man made. I wonder why they didn't use the 99%?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Bloop

There was a graphic on the forecast the other day which showed that the UK record temperature had only been broken 3 times in over 100 years.
35.9c in ~ 1910, 37.5 in 2003 then 37.8 in 2019. However since 2003, the old 1910 record has since been exceeded about another 10 times.
The next couple of days isn't a one off. Extremes are definitely becoming more frequent.

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I don't doubt we are entering a warmer period in the cycle. The question is whether the warming is induced by man.

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Originally Posted by Lither_1927

I don't doubt we are entering a warmer period in the cycle. The question is whether the warming is induced by man.

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The answer is yes according to the experts.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blue matt

I'll take your world for it, yet it still looks like they are kicking the can down the road for a while, 52% of the worlds coal power station, while we in the UK sort out and recycle all our glass, plastics, tins etc etc , as I said, I can see how people look at china and think " why do we ( in the UK ) bother

oh and if you think China will achieve being carbon neutral, I'd love a pint of what you are drinking, its not going to happen

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have a look at that they are doing, it is absolutely massive their renewable capacity already exceeds 50%. they will do it I am sure.
when they set their mind to something they generally just do it, like building the world's largest high speed rail network while we piss about over a couple of hundred miles of hs2 for 30 odd years.
not sure how far India have got with it, but China are definitely doing their bit.

worth remembering as well that despite how massive China is, the UK I think has made more all-time carbon emissions, so we can't really take the moral high ground on this