The U.K. is currently on the exact same trajectory for deaths as Italy

https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus...tory_as_italy/

Don’t let anyone tell you statistical models don’t mean anything. They’ve been saying this for a month.

Please stay safe,at this rate the country will have another 3000+ deaths in 2 weeks.

Literally just read this too. Posted about it in the COVID thread.

It's extremely alarming. Thousands of people in the UK will die guaranteed due to no-one taking it seriously enough. It will literally take losing a loved one for some of these people to take it seriously. Maybe even not then.

My grandparents are very ill and I’ve come to the conclusion there’s a very good chance I won’t get to see them again or attend their funerals. There staying in but one of them has to go to the hospital, so quite likely to get it.

I don’t know what’s wrong with people, some pubs have been leaving the back doors open for people to go drinking.

Sorry to hear that.

It's awful hearing similar stories of people dying alone and funerals being ruined. It'll honestly take an army to force people indoors and I for one would welcome this measure with open arms.

I think it’s coming tbh. I reckon tomorrow London will be locked down and then the rest of the country will follow.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

My grandparents are very ill and I’ve come to the conclusion there’s a very good chance I won’t get to see them again or attend their funerals. There staying in but one of them has to go to the hospital, so quite likely to get it.

I don’t know what’s wrong with people, some pubs have been leaving the back doors open for people to go drinking.

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Is that right about some pubs leaving the back door open? That's shocking, the landlords should be told they'll lose their licence if they try to defy the government's orders to close their doors.

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Originally Posted by Rock_Flock_of_Five

Is that right about some pubs leaving the back door open? That's shocking, the landlords should be told they'll lose their licence if they try to defy the government's orders to close their doors.

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Haven’t looked into this, but is there some kind of fine or threat of imprisonment in place ???

Think compulsory reading should be:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ust-start.html

How can people still think it is not serious? It IS existence threatening to life as it is known.

Also just read the Bill before Parliament tomorrow...this includes many worrying checks on liberty, including:

"The bill will also allow people to be detained under mental health laws if one doctor deems that they are in need of urgent treatment, rather than two."

Very worrying.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/e...esponse-plans:

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus...tory_as_italy/

Don’t let anyone tell you statistical models don’t mean anything. They’ve been saying this for a month.

Please stay safe,at this rate the country will have another 3000+ deaths in 2 weeks.

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Key words there.... AT THIS RATE.

It could be even worse, or it could be better. The model has so many parameters, and the growth is seen to be exponential, that just altering one parameter could have huge consequences.

I will now only go to the shops for food. Apart from that, I am staying in although there are open areas I can walk around as well, so will do that.

That graph is 2 days behind and we have had the exact same numbers for the 2 following days.

Incubation period is 2 weeks and we haven’t done any more than Italy did so realistically we are getting exactly the same for the next 2 weeks unless we get a miracle.

We aren’t even on lockdown yet and London is more dense than any Italian city. I’d say more likely it’ll be worse at this rate.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

That graph is 2 days behind and we have had the exact same numbers for the 2 following days.

Incubation period is 2 weeks and we haven’t done any more than Italy did so realistically we are getting exactly the same for the next 2 weeks unless we get a miracle.

We aren’t even on lockdown yet and London is more dense than any Italian city. I’d say more likely it’ll be worse at this rate.

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I think London is extremely worrying, like you say any action will take at least 2 weeks to have an impact. I just think that, at this early stage, there are not enough data points. One of the issues we will have is compliance. Some people will say "They closed the pubs last weekend, people are still dying, so it's not working" and will start to not comply. We are in for a sobering 2 weeks at the least, and I wouldn't mind guessing that the panic buying frenzy may be a hotbed for virus spread.

But, have you seen the Spanish figures? Their rate of rise is steeper than the Italian's. Like I say, the UK figures could get better, the public (albeit in small numbers) will have seen what is happening in other countries who are ahead of us in the curve. I put my dad on lockdown last Sunday (ahead of the Government announcement) and I have been working from home 2 weeks (ahead of the announcement). I've spoken to others who have done the same. I reckon there should be a lockdown in all major cities or areas with a high population density (rather than a national lockdown).

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

That graph is 2 days behind and we have had the exact same numbers for the 2 following days.

Incubation period is 2 weeks and we haven’t done any more than Italy did so realistically we are getting exactly the same for the next 2 weeks unless we get a miracle.

We aren’t even on lockdown yet and London is more dense than any Italian city. I’d say more likely it’ll be worse at this rate.

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No cause for celebration, but figures today at 281 compared to Italy on 366.

In the interests of balance and not wishing to deny the seriousness of the situation, Italy has the second oldest (over 65’s) population in the World. Uk is 24th. Japan is 1st but has had very few virus cases reported. The figures mean little in terms of predicting what will happen and it is difficult to compare them country to country. There is no way of knowing if UK will follow Italy or not. Infection and death rates are still low in comparison to overall population.

This article published earlier, if accurate, would explain why Italian numbers are increasing.

Israeli doctor in Italy: We no longer help those over 60 - https://www.jpost.com/International/...over-60-621856

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Originally Posted by dml1954

There is no way of knowing if UK will follow Italy or not. Infection and death rates are still low in comparison to overall population.

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All wrong I’m afraid. People need to be careful.

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Originally Posted by Organ Morgan.

This article published earlier, if accurate, would explain why Italian numbers are increasing.

Israeli doctor in Italy: We no longer help those over 60 - https://www.jpost.com/International/...over-60-621856

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It doesn’t say they aren’t helping them just respirators are going to people under 60 as priority.

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Originally Posted by dml1954

In the interests of balnce and not wishing to deny the seriousness of the situation, Italy has the second oldest (over 65’s) population in the World. Uk is 24th. Japan is 1st but has had very few virus cases reported. The figures mean little in terms of predicting what will happen and it is difficult to compare them country to country. There is no way of knowing if UK will follow Italy or not. Infection and death rates are still low in comparison to overall population.

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I believe Germany has the 3rd highest over 65 population and a fraction of deaths compared to Italy and significantly lower than the UK to date. It also has a high number of cases. It looks like there are many more complex factors involved here.

Clearly things are going to get very much worse. The government's scientific advisor has stated that less than 20000 deaths is a good outcome. According to my son, who is on the front line, this is an horrendous illness and an awful way to die. The staff are scared and stressed especially as many of the deaths in Italy are medics.

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Originally Posted by Organ Morgan.

This article published earlier, if accurate, would explain why Italian numbers are increasing.

Israeli doctor in Italy: We no longer help those over 60 - https://www.jpost.com/International/...over-60-621856

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Its the same here with people over 70 pretty much. Most of them won't survive the process. My good friend working on the frontline of the NHS told me the same. As things get worse he mentioned it wouldn't surprise him if we lower it to 60 also as there's no equipment around. 60 is not old let's be honest. It's haunting to think my parents wouldn't even be given the chance to live in Italy right now.

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Originally Posted by Baloo

I believe Germany has the 3rd highest over 65 population and a fraction of deaths compared to Italy and significantly lower than the UK to date. It also has a high number of cases. It looks like there are many more complex factors involved here.

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I think I read recently that Germany had far more ITU beds than the UK, and presumably, Italy. However, as you say, there is complexity behind the statistics and only an idiot latches onto one facet of comparison.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

We are indeed on the same path. We’re pretty much where Italy was 15/16 days ago (5-6 thousand cases and 250-350 deaths).
The next fortnight we will be in total lock down. It has to happen, it is panning out exactly how the government has said.
Those who aren’t following or listening to the daily updates are complete and utter fools.

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Originally Posted by Monster munch

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

We are indeed on the same path. We’re pretty much where Italy was 15/16 days ago (5-6 thousand cases and 250-350 deaths).
The next fortnight we will be in total lock down. It has to happen, it is panning out exactly how the government has said.
Those who aren’t following or listening to the daily updates are complete and utter fools.

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We have some friends who live in Bergamo, they haven't been out in weeks apart from brief shops for food.

They are watching what's going on here and asking "What the f*** are you doing?"

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Originally Posted by Veg1960

We have some friends who live in Bergamo, they haven't been out in weeks apart from brief shops for food.

They are watching what's going on here and asking "What the f*** are you doing?"

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I can understand them thinking that but no one knows which plan is right and which plan is wrong. It is a completely unknown situation.We in UK always seem to think everyone else is right and we are wrong but by and large we do quite well. The only way we know is when the final numbers are counted

Looking at the figures the Chinese way is the right way but it is something that wouldn't work here, not least because those in charge don't have the same level of power.

In the same way we can't build two hospitals in a week or whatever it was.

The mindset of the people is also very different. I know people who live with an elderly relative that on Friday had to go for one last pint because they wouldn't be able to for some time.

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

I can understand them thinking that but no one knows which plan is right and which plan is wrong. It is a completely unknown situation.We in UK always seem to think everyone else is right and we are wrong but by and large we do quite well. The only way we know is when the final numbers are counted

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Yeah let's wait until loads of people have died before making a decision.

There are plenty of case studies round the world of countries who have done it right and wrong. We've chosen to go down the route of italy and spain.

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Originally Posted by Trigger

Looking at the figures the Chinese way is the right way but it is something that wouldn't work here, not least because those in charge don't have the same level of power.

In the same way we can't build two hospitals in a week or whatever it was.

The mindset of the people is also very different. I know people who live with an elderly relative that on Friday had to go for one last pint because they wouldn't be able to for some time.

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‘Had’ to go out? Really?

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

Yeah let's wait until loads of people have died before making a decision.

There are plenty of case studies round the world of countries who have done it right and wrong. We've chosen to go down the route of italy and spain.

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You cannot have case studies of something that is on-going. You can only study it once it is finished and all the facts and figures are known.
That won't be for some time. As someone said, there are so many variables that it is impossible to know something is absolutely right or absolutely wrong

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

You cannot have case studies of something that is on-going. You can only study it once it is finished and all the facts and figures are known.
That won't be for some time. As someone said, there are so many variables that it is impossible to know something is absolutely right or absolutely wrong

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So we should just wait and hope for the best then?

Are you saying we can't learn from China, Italy, Spain, France and Singapore becasue it's still ongoing?

If you don't know if something is "absolutely right" surely you look at the multiple world wide examples and play it as safe as possible?

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

You cannot have case studies of something that is on-going. You can only study it once it is finished and all the facts and figures are known.
That won't be for some time. As someone said, there are so many variables that it is impossible to know something is absolutely right or absolutely wrong

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What?! :hehe:

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

Yeah let's wait until loads of people have died before making a decision.

There are plenty of case studies round the world of countries who have done it right and wrong. We've chosen to go down the route of italy and spain.

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I'm not being rude and i think that generally you post some good stuff, your politics seem roughly the same as mine. I tend to agree with you over this virus although i don't know for sure what's going to happen so i'm taking sensible measures in order to minimise my risk and everyone else's. What i was going to say is why don't you go and do something else (and a fair few others on here) a bit more productive apart from giving your opinion on the pending doom that may happen over the coming months (and others on here) there must be jobs in the house you can get on with or people locally who need your help. This can't be doing your health much good (and others on here) Take care mate.

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Originally Posted by Tuerto

I'm not being rude and i think that generally you post some good stuff, your politics seem roughly the same as mine. I tend to agree with you over this virus although i don't know for sure what's going to happen so i'm taking sensible measures in order to minimise my risk and everyone else's. What i was going to say is why don't you go and do something else (and a fair few others on here) a bit more productive apart from giving your opinion on the pending doom that may happen over the coming months (and others on here) there must be jobs in the house you can get on with or people locally who need your help. This can't be doing your health much good (and others on here) Take care mate.

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I'm working from home, I'm on here to waste the few spare minutes I get.

I don't think what I'm posting is "doom an gloom" it's true if we've already waited a long time to do something, there is evidence that if we wait any longer it'll get worse.

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

I can understand them thinking that but no one knows which plan is right and which plan is wrong. It is a completely unknown situation.We in UK always seem to think everyone else is right and we are wrong but by and large we do quite well. The only way we know is when the final numbers are counted

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So we don't know whether or not having people crammed onto tube trains in a city where there are reports of already full IC wards is a good idea or a bad idea, because we don't know the final numbers.

:thumbup:

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Originally Posted by rudy gestede

What?! :hehe:

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I only said you cannot have "Case studies" until the event is over and it can be stuided. That's all?

Butwhy do you assume that every other government in the world is getting it right but not ours? What eveidance do you have of that?

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

I only said you cannot have "Case studies" until the event is over and it can be stuided. That's all?

Butwhy do you assume that every other government in the world is getting it right but not ours? What eveidance do you have of that?

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Where have I said that? Lots have got it wrong and we’ve just done exactly the same as them. That’s the whole point.

Norway has now had 3 days with no deaths. I think they started having the majority of people working from home prior to it being very bad there.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

I'm working from home, I'm on here to waste the few spare minutes I get.

I don't think what I'm posting is "doom an gloom" it's true if we've already waited a long time to do something, there is evidence that if we wait any longer it'll get worse.

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Yup, i'm not going to disagree with you, but how many times can you repeat the same thing? It just becomes noise after a while. I know it looks like i'm having a go at you, probably because i usually respect your opinion, there are others who in my opinion are adding nothing now, obviously bored and nothing better to do. Good luck to them if we end up on lockdown, they'll probably get ill with stress or heart disease before the corona shows up.

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Originally Posted by Tuerto

Yup, i'm not going to disagree with you, but how many times can you repeat the same thing? It just becomes noise after a while. I know it looks like i'm having a go at you, probably because i usually respect your opinion, there are others who in my opinion are adding nothing now, obviously bored and nothing better to do. Good luck to them if we end up on lockdown, they'll probably get ill with stress or heart disease before the corona shows up.

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Fair enough, you make a good point :thumbup:

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

Fair enough, you make a good point :thumbup:

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And so do you, i almost always respect what you say and i wouldn't dream of telling people what they should do. All the best mate.

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Originally Posted by Rock_Flock_of_Five

Is that right about some pubs leaving the back door open? That's shocking, the landlords should be told they'll lose their licence if they try to defy the government's orders to close their doors.

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Yes, and on this occasion I can say that the Royal Oak in Bryn nr Maesteg was one.