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Operation Yellowhammer
Government has released documents relating to what it's now calling "HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions" but what was a month ago called "BASE SCENARIO"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...dsom-live-news
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
I'm 100% backing Boris but I'm not 100% backing his own government's analysis.....
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
Sky news is reporting that it's the worst case scenario and not the base scenario.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
We have the worst case scenario
Boris fecking Johnson
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Vindec
Sky news is reporting that it's the worst case scenario and not the base scenario.
Sky news are reporting that it is titled worse case scenario, and not titled base scenario (which it appears to have been titled previously)
I guess people will see what they want to see (and I include myself in that)
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
If that's the worst case scenario, then it's no cause for panic IMO.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wales-Bales
If that's the worst case scenario, then it's no cause for panic IMO.
Well I for one will sleep a lot better now that you've cast your eye over it and concluded it's OK.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Wales-Bales
If that's the worst case scenario, then it's no cause for panic IMO.
Riddle me this: if the SR consequences of a no deal exit are so negligible, why is a no deal exit held as such a bargaining chip with the EU by the leaver tools?
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
I'm 100% backing Boris but I'm not 100% backing his own government's analysis.....
Johnson = 100% loser dick
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
Worst case scenario, base scenario? Whatever. None of it sounds like something anyone would want to vote for. Each to their own I suppose, but I wouldn't fancy it.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
Wales-Bales
If that's the worst case scenario, then it's no cause for panic IMO.
I’m so pleased you have no loved ones who need care, medical supplies or drives a truck...or is Irish.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
Dave Blue
I’m so pleased you have no loved ones who need care, medical supplies or drives a truck...or is Irish.
Yet another panic merchant. Feared of the day you’ve never seen.
Just as the UK were pioneers in inventing the telephone, television etc, we will prove to be pioneers in escaping the clutches of a debt ridden, power hungry all consuming “club for the boys’, called the EU. We’ll be the 1st to leave, but we won’t be the last.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
William Treseder
Yet another panic merchant. Feared of the day you’ve never seen.
Just as the UK were pioneers in inventing the telephone, television etc, we will prove to be pioneers in escaping the clutches of a debt ridden, power hungry all consuming “club for the boys’, called the EU. We’ll be the 1st to leave, but we won’t be the last.
Not sure if serious, but...
You say "we", but you've mentioned just two people by way of example, and they are both dead. So those guys won't be around to invent us out of trouble.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
What's the worst case scenario when you get out of bed in the morning?
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
Government has to plan for worst case scenarios. It already has procedures in place for every natural disaster you could think of also.
We're British, at worst we will form an orderly queue to get a single loaf of bread, no two for one deals for a while and maybe some organised pavement shuffling by remain and leave debating teams.
Let project fear commence.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
Optimistic Nick
Not sure if serious, but...
You say "we", but you've mentioned just two people by way of example, and they are both dead. So those guys won't be around to invent us out of trouble.
The trouble is in your mind, and others like you.
Nobody is saying it’s gonna be smooth sailing. A big change is always gonna have teething problems, and some will suffer more than others while we get used to it, but that’s happened since time began.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
William Treseder
Yet another panic merchant. Feared of the day you’ve never seen.
Just as the UK were pioneers in inventing the telephone, television etc, we will prove to be pioneers in escaping the clutches of a debt ridden, power hungry all consuming “club for the boys’, called the EU. We’ll be the 1st to leave, but we won’t be the last.
:hehe: it’s the blitz spirit lads!
This is the base case, if you’re happy for people to die for the U.K. to be in a situation which so far has zero discernable benefits fair enough.
This is what will happen if we get no deal. There is no panicking about it and it’s why it’s important that we get a deal.
No one at the time voted for a no deal and anyone saying they did is a liar.
But hey at least hedge funds directly related to boris johnson have placed £8.3bn on a no deal Brexit happening.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
William Treseder
The trouble is in your mind, and others like you.
Nobody is saying it’s gonna be smooth sailing. A big change is always gonna have teething problems, and some will suffer more than others while we get used to it, but that’s happened since time began.
What are the benefits that will offset this then?
What will the country gain from a no deal Brexit?
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
Trigger
Government has to plan for worst case scenarios. It already has procedures in place for every natural disaster you could think of also.
We're British, at worst we will form an orderly queue to get a single loaf of bread, no two for one deals for a while and maybe some organised pavement shuffling by remain and leave debating teams.
Let project fear commence.
If no deal happens this isn’t project fear this is reality mate.
We are Britain and the actual case is people who rely on certain drugs will die because we can’t get them.
The U.K. imports 99.7% of its insulin. If you are happy for people who have something simple like diabetes to die fair enough.
But I hope you can tell me something positive that will come from this to offset people literally dying?
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
rudy gestede
:hehe: it’s the blitz spirit lads!
This is the base case, if you’re happy for people to die for the U.K. to be in a situation which so far has zero discernable benefits fair enough.
This is what will happen if we get no deal. There is no panicking about it and it’s why it’s important that we get a deal.
No one at the time voted for a no deal and anyone saying they did is a liar.
But hey at least hedge funds directly related to boris johnson have placed £8.3bn on a no deal Brexit happening.
What a drama queen 😁
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
William Treseder
What a drama queen 😁
It’s facts mate. If you would prefer to believe the Tory party and their billionaire propagandists over doctors, economists, and business fair enough.
I still don’t get why people are so desperate for this yet have not one positive reason to leave and are happy to ignore all the facts of a no deal.
During the referendum people were saying how important the single market was and now they don’t mind people dying as long as we leave. Ive never seen brainwashing like it.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
William Treseder
Yet another panic merchant. Feared of the day you’ve never seen.
Just as the UK were pioneers in inventing the telephone, television etc, we will prove to be pioneers in escaping the clutches of a debt ridden, power hungry all consuming “club for the boys’, called the EU. We’ll be the 1st to leave, but we won’t be the last.
Genghis Khan was shit hot too. Hows Mongolia shaping up nowadays?
This does sum it up. People unable to accept the world has moved on and we're not a super power of the future.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
rudy gestede
It’s facts mate. If you would prefer to believe the Tory party and their billionaire propagandists over doctors, economists, and business fair enough.
I still don’t get why people are so desperate for this yet have not one positive reason to leave and are happy to ignore all the facts of a no deal.
During the referendum people were saying how important the single market was and now they don’t mind people dying as long as we leave. Ive never seen brainwashing like it.
The people who are pushing it have successfully managed to get brexit and no deal to be seen as equal. They're nothing of the sort, which is why in the campaign everyone from Farage down said we'd get a deal (Norway, Canada, etc). NOT ONE of them was selling no deal, but now they are making out that we were always at war with Eurasia. It's incredible to see happening in real time.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Trigger
Government has to plan for worst case scenarios. It already has procedures in place for every natural disaster you could think of also.
We're British, at worst we will form an orderly queue to get a single loaf of bread, no two for one deals for a while and maybe some organised pavement shuffling by remain and leave debating teams.
Let project fear commence.
Have you forgotten the fuel shortage? :hehe:
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
lardy
Genghis Khan was shit hot too. Hows Mongolia shaping up nowadays?
This does sum it up. People unable to accept the world has moved on and we're not a super power of the future.
The knots Leavers are now having to tie themselves in to try to justify their original decision would be hilarious if it wasn't such a serious situation.
Can anyone say that they had fully considered the fact that there may be shortages of crucial medicines for some patients as a result of us leaving the EU when they cast their vote Leave vote in 2016 - truthful answers would be appreciated as opposed to the usual "party line" stuff.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
the other bob wilson
The knots Leavers are now having to tie themselves in to try to justify their original decision would be hilarious if it wasn't such a serious situation.
Can anyone say that they had fully considered the fact that there may be shortages of crucial medicines for some patients as a result of us leaving the EU when they cast their vote Leave vote in 2016 - truthful answers would be appreciated as opposed to the usual "party line" stuff.
People have been fully indoctrinated into the cult of Brexit. They don’t know what they want they just know they want Brexit at all costs.
Our pal William above said he voted leave because the EU were corrupt but doesn’t seem to care that the leader of our country has gambled £8.3bn on a no deal Brexit happening.
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How long before we hear that people knew that they were voting for food shortages and medicine shortages, rising cost of fuel and widespread public disorder? And that we should respect their wishes
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
William Treseder
The trouble is in your mind, and others like you.
Nobody is saying it’s gonna be smooth sailing. A big change is always gonna have teething problems, and some will suffer more than others while we get used to it, but that’s happened since time began.
But why stick a pin in your eye when you don't have to?Nice of you to think of those who will suffer so that a minority of politicians can indulge in some ancient ideological notion of the Empire days when the ruling classes bowed to no one.Project fear is now becoming project reality and thanks to the law we may now know the full extent before we jump off the cliff.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
Quote:
Originally Posted by
William Treseder
The trouble is in your mind, and others like you.
Nobody is saying it’s gonna be smooth sailing. A big change is always gonna have teething problems, and some will suffer more than others while we get used to it, but that’s happened since time began.
But at least you're happy for people to suffer. What benefit do they get for their suffering?
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
William Treseder
escaping the clutches of a debt ridden, power hungry all consuming “club for the boys’,
I think you'll find that's the Conservative party.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
But at least you're happy for people to suffer. What benefit do they get for their suffering?
They get to see what a wonderful nation “we” are. “We” invented the telephone after all “we” can definitely get through this
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
I'm baffled the same people who call the EU a "debt ridden, power hungry all consuming “club for the boys’" seem more than happy with Cummings and Johnson running the country so they make a profit on money they're investing based on a no deal brexit.
I could see why people originally voted for brexit, we were promised so much, especially low income families. But there is such a chasm between what was promised and a no deal brexit that I struggle to see why people still want it.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
John Humphries on Radio 4 this morning said that the revelations of Operation Yellowhammer were akin to a disaster movie where the supermarket shelves start to empty and panic sets in, leading to looting and rioting etc. I do wonder if this isn't just in the realms of movie making. I believe modern Western civilisation has only a thin veneer of "civility" which would quickly vanish in such a scenario.
We (and I include myself in this as a baby-boomer) are the post-war spoilt generations. We have no concept of shortages of the basic necessities of life unlike my parents who lived through WW2 (I can just remember sweet rationing finishing in the early 50's). Look at what happened in the Bahamas recently after the hurricane - armed gangs looting whatever they could scavenge. I'm pretty sure they were not doing this in order to share with their neighbours!
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Should have added that this thread should be moved to the Politics forum.
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I'll tell you who is laughing at the moment, those preppers and their collection of every tinned food imaginable.
Not worried by lack of fuel, with all the riots who would want to be driving around in a reasonably priced family car anyway.
May as well head to the Winchester and wait for it all to blow over.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
Wales-Bales
If that's the worst case scenario, then it's no cause for panic IMO.
Serious question - how many lives do you consider an acceptable number to lose because of no deal, for example because of medicine shortages?
I'm not suggesting thousands will die, I'm hoping that worst case is very much worst case and it will all be fine, but it's not insane to think that some people who are completely dependent on certain medicines would die if those medicines were even slightly delayed, which seems to be a pretty realistic possibility due to a no deal Brexit. So as someone who thinks this report is no cause for panic, how many people do you think is an acceptable amount to die to get us out of the EU?
I personally think the answer is 0 being that the consequences of no deal are well known in advance and our parliamentary system is being torn apart in an attempt to avoid it happening, but there's no way your answer (going by what you believe both about this report and Brexit in general) can be 0 so what is the magic number?
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
Llandaff Blue
They get to see what a wonderful nation “we” are. “We” invented the telephone after all “we” can definitely get through this
I'll remember that when I hear of the first Brexit death. I'll remember that when a friend of mine loses his or her job thanks to Brexit. Those comforting words will mean a lot, I'm sure.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
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Originally Posted by
delmbox
Serious question - how many lives do you consider an acceptable number to lose because of no deal, for example because of medicine shortages?
I'm not suggesting thousands will die, I'm hoping that worst case is very much worst case and it will all be fine, but it's not insane to think that some people who are completely dependent on certain medicines would die if those medicines were even slightly delayed, which seems to be a pretty realistic possibility due to a no deal Brexit. So as someone who thinks this report is no cause for panic, how many people do you think is an acceptable amount to die to get us out of the EU?
I personally think the answer is 0 being that the consequences of no deal are well known in advance and our parliamentary system is being torn apart in an attempt to avoid it happening, but there's no way your answer (going by what you believe both about this report and Brexit in general) can be 0 so what is the magic number?
I don't know how anyone can actually read it and say no cause for panic. Either he hasn't read it or he can't comprehend how bad it will be.
One of the lines in there says "Low income families will be disproportionally affected by food price rises".
Yet again the poorest members of society are going to be ****ed by the richest. A lot of people who use this board will be affected by that too. No deal brexit is a disgrace.
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Re: Operation Yellowhammer
Here are some highlights of yellowhammer, and let's remember this is the base case for a no deal brexit:
Quote:
Thyroxine is needed by 1 in 20 people in the UK to stay alive to cope with their autoimmune condition, the large majority of this is manufactured in the EU.
HGV traffic will reduce to 40-60% of currentlevels, HGVs could face delays of 2 days. Could take 3 months to get back to even 50-50 levels.
Significant price increase of electricity for domestic and commercial users
Cannot stockpile insulin so their will be a massive shortage
Domestic food supply will be at risk of an outbreak of disease as we cannot buy the chemicals we need to keep it disease free
Fresh food shortages, non fresh food could be ok but availability on the shelf will be reduced (even without panic buying)
Chemical supply chain could break down and fresh water supply could be affected (luckily this one is unlikely)
Gibralter is ****ed (paraphrased)
Significant ammounts of police resource will be taken up with protests and counter protests, lucky out police force is well staffed!
Fuel shortages
Low income groups will not be able to afford food and fuel
Checks to be implemented on Northern Irish border
Northern Irish buisnesses will stop trading
Social care providers likely to go bust over time
Anyone calling this project fear has to remember this was prepared by the party who want brexit at all costs and these are just a handful of the negatives I've pulled out.
I've not seen one positive yet either.