https://www.ft.com/content/6d044f4b-...e-804778a85747
Seems to be going to plan doesn't it.
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https://www.ft.com/content/6d044f4b-...e-804778a85747
Seems to be going to plan doesn't it.
Nothing to see here cos it’s a pay wall
Is it? I read the article.Quote:
Originally Posted by stevo
Fair play, I'm a stupid phucker on times!
Imports and exports down the last 5 years, most economists pointing the reason at the B word. Decent bar chart showing the decline.
UK trade volumes suffer record five-year decline
Drop in goods imports and exports attributed to Brexit by economists
The UK goods trade has suffered its steepest five-year fall on record, highlighting how Brexit has reduced flows both into and out of Britain, say economists.
The volume of UK goods imports and exports was 7.4 per cent smaller in 2023 than in 2018, the largest five-year decline in goods trade since comparable records began in 1997, according to FT calculations of data published by the Office for National Statistics on Friday.
The ONS reported that the volume of imports fell 7.4 per cent compared with 2022 and was down 3.8 per cent compared with 2018.
Meanwhile, exports fell 4.6 per cent year on year, with substantial drops in exports to both EU and non-EU countries. Over five years, export volumes fell 12.4 per cent.
Emily Fry, economist at the Resolution Foundation think-tank, said after years of data being affected by the pandemic and the energy price shock, the 2023 figures were a real “big sign” of the impact of Brexit.
“A clear implication of this [data] is that the new trade barriers that were put in place by Brexit are having an effect on trade,” she said.
Economists point out that the performance of the UK goods trade has been worse than that of other advanced countries.
“The UK’s weak trade performance is unusual among advanced economies,” said John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank.
He added that most countries saw an increase in goods trade after the pandemic, but “the UK did not participate in the boom thanks to the trade barriers that it imposed upon itself”.
“The obvious culprit is Brexit,” he said.
In its latest economic and fiscal outlook, the Office for Budget Responsibility, the spending watchdog, noted in 2023, UK trade intensity — exports and imports as share of the economy — was 1.7 per cent below its 2019 level, driven by poor goods performance. This contrasted with an average increase of 1.9 per cent across other G7 economies.
“This may suggest that Brexit frictions and post-pandemic disruptions have weighed more on trade in goods than on services,” the OBR concluded.
Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, said that while UK goods exports have performed “poorly” over recent years compared to other economies, Britain’s services exports have “grown strongly”.
But he added that it was “unclear how much of the underperformance in goods trade related to Brexit”. “Goods exports have been weak for both EU and non-EU countries — although Brexit is almost certainly partly responsible,” he said.
Springford said the weakness of UK trade with both EU and non-EU countries may have been because Britain had missed out on the strong growth of intra-EU trade in recent years. “We can infer that the UK’s goods exports to the EU would have grown more than its exports to the rest of the world if Brexit hadn’t happened,” he said.
Fry said it was “particularly concerning” to see exports of key high-value manufacturing sectors shrink after the ONS data showed the real value of chemical exports had dropped 15 per cent compared with 2018.
The data “implies that those industries aren’t performing particularly well after Brexit and that could have kind of longer term implications for poor national productivity”, she added.
You won't be able blame everything coming down the pipeline on Brexit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jordi Culé
Do you ever look at the EU? It never ceases to amaze me how little supposedly pro-europeans seem to actually follow what is happening there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jordi Culé
Current events are a global problem involving global players.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
Absolutely.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wales-Bales
And yet we still get the British left hammering the British working class for voting to leave something that made our lives worse and quoting journalists and economists whose inspiration is mainly that they own second homes in the EU to hammer us more. All the whole ignoring glaring data on growth and unemployment and wages and anything else you care to mention that shows the EU is in the same boat, often sinking quicker than us.
Don’t think he is. Just quite a bit of what has gone wrong over the past eight years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wales-Bales
Who are the Btitish 'left' here Jimbo?Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
The economists or the Financial Times, perhaps both or are they just commenting and reporting the facts presented before them?
As for the British 'working class' voting for Brexit, there's a number of studies on Statista documenting that they probably wouldn't vote the same way now.
There's also a number of articles detailing where dome industries who were overwhelmingly Pro Brexit think they've been conned.
https://www.politico.eu/article/brex...stry-betrayal/
Good to see your 'condescending amazement' has returned functioning. It feels like old times.
X
Remember that time I made a post including inflation + interest rates of western European countries, I'm pretty sure it was France, Germany, Portugal, Switzeland, Italy and Spain.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
The UK performed worse than all of them. You conveniently ignored that post despite me pointing you in the right direction multiple times.
How on earth has the EU made working class lives worse?
:hehe: Yeah, I'm looking forward to the answer to that one!Quote:
Originally Posted by Doucas
...along, of course, with the answer to the question of how Brexit has made working class lives (or most people's lives, really) better.
Correct me if Im wrong but aren't you rich and live in the EU? Are you best placed to say?Quote:
Originally Posted by Swiss Peter
Two weeks after we left the EU covid hit. Did that not impact things?
For the record, wages are, and have risen faster here than elsewhere. All knocked out by rising house prices of course bought upon by record immigration more than anything.
Correct me if Im wrong but aren't you fairly rich and live in the EU? Are you best placed to say?Quote:
Originally Posted by Swiss Peter
Two weeks after we left the EU covid hit. Did that not impact things?
For the record, wages are, and have risen faster here than elsewhere. All knocked out by rising house prices of course bought upon by record immigration more than anything.
Most tradies are now have had a very good few years even if the country more widely hasn't.
If you're talking about how the EU made working class lives worse in the UK, why would it be notable that COVID hit after the UK left? It's the decades before that would be relevant.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
Two different points there though. The one about COVID is that it entirely skews any political decisions, has made it very difficult to assess out outcomes yet. That goes for any govr elected in 2019,2020,2021 etc and certainly a big political and economic change that happened in Feb 2021 and was followed a few weeks later by a global pandemic.Quote:
Originally Posted by lardy
The basic matrics comparing UK and the EU are very mixed. There is no clear picture when viewed holistically.
And, nope I don't think the EU is particularly good for working class Europeans. Not all bad by any stretch but could do so much better.
The irony is that itd a free market obsessed institution run by Conservatives for the many years and which we democratically chose to leave, overwhelmingly so in poorer communities. And yet still great swathes of the British left fawn over it and condemn anyone for wanting out.
Covid arrived in Europe in early 2020, not 2021.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
Strange, but I don't remember the advertising from Leave saying "The basic matrics comparing UK and the EU will be very mixed. There will be no clear picture when viewed holistically." back in 2016, pre Referendum.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC8q...FactPointVideo
You're wrong. Weird post!Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
...and having told me that I am in no position to judge the impact of the EU on working class lives here, you presume to know how the EU is for working class Europeans! Classic James :hehe:Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
Yes, sorry that's a typo. Our first day outside of the EU was on 1st Feb 2020. Barely a few weeks later parts of Europe entered a lockdown. Within 6 weeks we were ourselvesQuote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
I didnt tell you, I asked. In my experience, when I look at the friends I have who are absolute anti-brexit die-hards, as opposed to those who voted against it but accepted the result with grace, nearly all have a financial interest at play. Usually a business or second home. They frequently abuse people who voted differently, on pretend moral grounds but there is usually money or personal motivation at play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Swiss Peter
Hey, I am very very happy to look at all the stats. That exactly what I try to do. Not just look at selective ones to try to make a point.
Apologies if I mis-characterised your situation. Just borne from trying to understand why some people can't move on. 👍
I have said consistently that I am open to acknowledging and welcoming the benefits of Brexit as and when - and if - they manifest themselves (I live here, and it is not my interest or in the interest of my family and friends to do otherwise) In my mind, it is you James that is stuck in some sort of ideology/mindset that refuses to acknowledge the realities of how this is all unfolding. But - anyway, here we go again - we'll never agree.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
(Oh, and for the record my holiday home in Europe is my sister's small 4th floor flat in an apartment block in Berlin with no lift, and I visit quite a lot. It's always interesting to talk to the locals, and can be a valuable education to set alongside what you can learn in books of statistics:thumbup:)
I don't think I'm blind to it. I think its largely irrelevant. As I always did. My issue is always with people spreading things I believe to be untrue claiming it to be a "disaster" etc when it plainly isn't. There are far greater issues at play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Swiss Peter
That's great, as discussed I love Germany, although Berlin is one of the few cities I've never been to. No holiday home here, though my Nan had a place in the Costs Brava but that's long gone and my mum did live in Hannover, France and Spain. Alas, no more!
Absolutely! Speak to people! Qualitative data is critical too.
I find it hard to believe that some people still think that Brexit was and is a good thing. For the record, I voted remain but accepted the result at the time and wanted us to move on as a country. But the facts speak for themselves.
Nothing to say about those adverts I linked to? The one contrasting the NHS outside the EU with what is was like within it especially would be hilariously funny for how completely and utterly wrong it was if the subject matter was not so serious.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
JimboQuote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
I see you have learned zero. Stop spouting one-eyed BS.
Brexit will be detrimental for the UK economy forever. The emerging trade data clearly show this. Any rational, honest economist would tell you this.
My usual question to you - what expertise do you have to comment on Economics? We both know it's none. But I'm sure that won't stop you.
I can read real data instead of spouting things from crystal balls like you.Quote:
Originally Posted by az city
I hope you got your money back for the last few crystal balls by the way?
I offered you a challenge before about who would more accurately predict forthcoming data. You didn't accept the challenge then. Had you done it, I would likely have been right, and a charity of your choice may have been a tenner richer. The offer is still there!
I watched a little earlier.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
Do I strike you as the kind of person particularly interested in political adverts? Party political broadcasts are my least favourite form of political communication. Interesting from a campaigning perspective perhaps but in terms of understanding things, almost entirely useless.
I don't endorse them. I think it was wrong to use the NHS too.
I also think it was entirely wrong of Britain Stronger in Europe to talk about a collapse in house prices, stock market crash or a bonfire of rights etc. I recall specifically an advert that had a piece of paper with things like 'maternity pay' ripped up on the table if we left the EU. Utter hogwash of course, as was the claim of a house price crash - pretty sinister given that's where most people's wealth lies.
I'm happy to criticise both sides. It was a dreadful campaign. Are you?
Stick to town planning, you arrogant thicko.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
Being called arrogant from you?! Goodness me. It's like ten thousand spoons when all you need is a knife.Quote:
Originally Posted by az city
More strange insults and no predictions again. Could do with your consistency down the City.
Always groundhog day today and the apocalypse tomorrow with you! 😉
I'm an immigrant in another country ( no! not ex pat- we are immigrants like any other) and from what i've seen heard and read, the UK is a complete and utter shitt show with more people living on welfare at best and if not on the street, Food banks weren't a thing when i lived in the UK. i'm well aware that's gone well for some, the middle class and up. (tories)
Criticise both sides, but only one of them on here - you slavishly follow the Leave line in every thread on Brexit.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
Yes, I criticise both sides - the Remain campaign used to drive me mad with the dire warnings from Cameron and Osborne which took us for fools.
It's because the only "side" (it was 7 years ago remember why are you still talking sides? We are all on the same side now) is making hysterical predictions that don't take into account what is also happening in other countries.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
That's why.