The Racing Post pundits fancy City's chances

On Wednesday morning I picked up a copy of the Racing Post's Big Kick-Off - an in-depth, 72-page betting guide to the new football season which the paper produces each year during the week before the campaign begins.

This year, the Post's leading Football League correspondent, Dan Childs, has selected the following as his best bets for the Championship:

Fulham to win the league - 1 point at 11/2
Cardiff to finish in the top six - 3 points at 2/1
Hull to be relegated - 2 points at 9/2
Reading to be relegated - 1 point at 9/1
Cardiff to win the divisional handicap with a +12 points start - 1 point at 18/1
Birmingham to finish in the top half of the table - 4 points at 6/4
Dominic Solanke to finish as top scorer - 1 point at 18/1
Cardiff to finish above Swansea - 5 points at 4/5

Childs predicts City will finish second and makes much of the team's improved form last season after Mick McCarthy took over. In his seasonal preview, he says:

"McCarthy's had a few issues to contend with, including the loss of loanees Harry Wilson and Sheyi Ojo, but the experienced gaffer has recruited well. He's added energetic midfielder Ryan Wintle from Crewe, while his attacking options have been boosted with the season-long loan singing of exciting winger Ryan Giles from Wolves and the free signing of Irish international striker James Collins from Luton.

"Those additions add further firepower to a team who scored 66 league goals last term - the fourth-highest in the Championship - and Cardiff will be hard to beat thanks to the powerful presence of Sean Morrison, a member of last season's team of the year, at the heart of their defence."

The pundit's prediction for the Championship's top ten is as follows:

1 - Fulham
2 - Cardiff
3 - West Brom
4 - Bournemouth
5 - Sheffield United
6 - QPR
7 - Birmingham
8 - Middlesbrough
9 - Nottingham Forest
10 - Millwall

Childs believes Swansea will finish 14th. His is a very positive outlook as far as City is concerned, but I should point out that he predicted the Bluebirds would finish third in each of the last two seasons. His main bets in those campaigns paid dividends (Fulham to be promoted in 2019/20, Norwich to win the league in 2020/21), but his bet on Cardiff to be promoted last year didn't.

Elsewhere in the betting guide, stats expert Kevin Pullein also backs City for promotion at odds of 11/2, but it's notable that none of the representatives of the eight major bookmakers who were asked to give their seasonal predictions for the Championship selected Cardiff.

Meanwhile, the paper's leading football writer, Mark Langdon, captures my feelings perfectly when he says: "In terms of quality, this season's Championship looks absolutely dreadful."

City are rated as fifth-best in almost all of the bookmakers' pre-season lists and it's easy to see why. If you remove Fulham, West Brom, Sheffield United and Bournemouth from the equation, who else looks capable of mounting a promotion challenge? For me, given the nature, experience and depth of the squad, the Bluebirds are fifth-favourites almost by default in a division that was desperately short of genuine quality last season and looks even more so this.

If I had to bet on City's finishing position for 2021/22, I'd opt for fourth on the basis that at least one of the relegated sides is likely to disappoint. It promises to be an interesting campaign as nothing looks clear cut at either end of the table, but I'm expecting the quality of the football to be the poorest we've seen in the Championship for many years.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Meanwhile, the paper's leading football writer, Mark Langdon, captures my feelings perfectly when he says: "In terms of quality, this season's Championship looks absolutely dreadful."

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This quote is copied and pasted before every single season without fail.

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Originally Posted by Pedro de la Rosa

This quote is copied and pasted before every single season without fail.

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Although anyone that has us finishing 2nd, might have a point :hehe:

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Originally Posted by Pedro de la Rosa

This quote is copied and pasted before every single season without fail.

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I don't think that's true at all. For instance, last season it was clear that the three relegated sides were, on paper at least, well above average by this division's standards, and Brentford looked strong too. This year, not so much. I buy the Post's pre-season guide every year and have done so for more than a decade. Never before have I seen anything like that quote from the paper's pundits.

If you exclude the three teams who were promoted last season, the division was generally garbage. The fact that Barnsley and Swansea were able to secure play-off spots with their blatant limitations was telling. Usually, there is a reasonable amount of genuine quality and talent spread throughout the division. Last season there wasn't much. This season there appears to be even less. But maybe you have other ideas?

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

I don't think that's true at all. For instance, last season it was clear that the three relegated sides were, on paper at least, well above average by this division's standards, and Brentford looked strong too. This year, not so much. I buy the Post's pre-season guide every year and have done so for more than a decade. Never before have I seen anything like that quote from the paper's pundits.

If you exclude the three teams who were promoted last season, the division was generally garbage. The fact that Barnsley and Swansea were able to secure play-off spots with their blatant limitations was telling. Usually, there is a reasonable amount of genuine quality and talent spread throughout the division. Last season there wasn't much. This season there appears to be even less. But maybe you have other ideas?

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I agree it looks weaker this season compared to last.
Last season I don't think was particularly weak compared to the average though. The three relegated teams all remained in pretty good shape which is unusual (or used to be at least) and Brentford were clearly a very good team.

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Originally Posted by Pedro de la Rosa

This quote is copied and pasted before every single season without fail.

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And it rings more true than ever this season imo. It's there for the taking.

There's a definite lack of quality around the league. Great scenario for a hardworking hard-nosed team to barge their way into a promotion fight. Come on Mick!

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

I don't think that's true at all. For instance, last season it was clear that the three relegated sides were, on paper at least, well above average by this division's standards, and Brentford looked strong too. This year, not so much. I buy the Post's pre-season guide every year and have done so for more than a decade. Never before have I seen anything like that quote from the paper's pundits.

If you exclude the three teams who were promoted last season, the division was generally garbage. The fact that Barnsley and Swansea were able to secure play-off spots with their blatant limitations was telling. Usually, there is a reasonable amount of genuine quality and talent spread throughout the division. Last season there wasn't much. This season there appears to be even less. But maybe you have other ideas?

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The line is trotted out every year on here, maybe not the RP but every year without fail its posted multiple times on here.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

Last season I don't think was particularly weak compared to the average though.

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I guess that depends on how you judge it. Last season, the division was less competitive than usual - two of the three relegated teams were promoted at a canter, Brentford were a clear third best and nobody outside the top six teams (two of which were poor, one of which underperformed) came even remotely close to getting into the play-offs. The division was a bit of a non-event last season and the quality of the football played by those outside the top three was generally poor.

QPR improved during the second half of the season and I fancy Stoke will be a good bit better this season after offloading plenty of dead wood, but I really can't see much quality in the league right now. The fact that Fulham are favourites with a new manager and a squad that is effectively the same as that which finished fourth in 2019/20 is a clear sign of the realities of the situation.

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Originally Posted by dembethewarrior

The line is trotted out every year on here, maybe not the RP but every year without fail its posted multiple times on here.

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I can remember it being said in the Dave Jones years.
more so when we were doing well.

As a whole this division looks weaker on paper this season, as several clubs are having to trim costs, as we are. but I'm sure there will be young players I've never heard of having breakout seasons somewhere.

I still wouldn't think of this season as a particularly good opportunity for promotion.
Fulham will be strong and have spent money
West Brom are always good at this level - they know how to take a relegation and bounce back.
Bournemouth look strong again.

Not much to choose between the rest of the teams in the division though.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

I guess that depends on how you judge it. Last season, the division was less competitive than usual - two of the three relegated teams were promoted at a canter, Brentford were a clear third best and nobody outside the top six teams (two of which were poor, one of which underperformed) came even remotely close to getting into the play-offs. The division was a bit of a non-event last season and the quality of the football played by those outside the top three was generally poor.

QPR improved during the second half of the season and I fancy Stoke will be a good bit better this season after offloading plenty of dead wood, but I really can't see much quality in the league right now. The fact that Fulham are favourites with a new manager and a squad that is effectively the same as that which finished fourth in 2019/20 is a clear sign of the realities of the situation.

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Reading were a decent side last season as well, just tailed off badly. They had some talented youngsters, but they don't look as good this time around.

Stoke, QPR, Milwall all might be capable of doing well this time.
Barnsley have lost Mowatt and Dike, but their young side will be improving naturally with experience anyway so I think they could be back up there.
I have no idea if we will be challenging at the top or in a relegation battle this season, it's always a pretty close division outside the 2 extremities.

Such is the disparity between the premier league and championship incomes these days though I fear that we are going to see 2 or more relegated clubs going straight back up more often than not.
And to go up without parachute payments is an even more challenging achievement. Brentford achieved it with several years of building through excellent recruitment. Leeds manged it, but their additional commercial income is almost like having a parachute payment compared to a lot of teams.
I guess Sheffield Utd wouldn't have had any either, but they were innovative tactically.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

I still wouldn't think of this season as a particularly good opportunity for promotion.
Fulham will be strong and have spent money
West Brom are always good at this level - they know how to take a relegation and bounce back.
Bournemouth look strong again.

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To me, it looks a golden opportunity.

Fulham have a new manager and it's difficult to know what sort of appetite the squad will have for the battle. After all, most of those who got them promoted in 2019/20 barely got a look-in last season in the Premier League. Under the circumstances, does their squad have the stomach for the Championship? They certainly have the quality but I reckon Silva's got a real job on to raise morale among a group of players who could quite easily lack motivation.

West Brom's new manager doesn't look a good fit for the style they generally play and there seem to be problems within the squad, so I think they're a bit of unknown quantity right now.

Bournemouth have obvious quality but a new manager and a small squad.

As for Sheffield United, it's impossible to know what to make of them. The squad looks good by Championship standards, but most of the players did next to nothing last season and they also have a new manager.

Most of the rest of the division looks mediocre at best and many clubs have been doing little or no business in the transfer market due to a variety of financial problems.

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City are rated as fifth-best in almost all of the bookmakers' pre-season lists and it's easy to see why. If you remove Fulham, West Brom, Sheffield United and Bournemouth from the equation, who else looks capable of mounting a promotion challenge? For me, given the nature, experience and depth of the squad, the Bluebirds are fifth-favourites almost by default in a division that was desperately short of genuine quality last season and looks even more so this

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Via the automatic spots? No one.

Via the play-offs? QPR, Boro and Stoke. Some are suggesting Millwall.

We were such a boom or bust team last season, even under Mick, I think our experience may be slightly overvalued. We've also lost obvious creativity from the side so unlikely we score as many goals, though I'd agree our depth is still better than most.

We finished 8 last season and it's highly likely that 3 (Swansea, Barnsley, Reading) of the teams above us have worse seasons this year probably finishing below us. How many teams behind us have done enough to catch-up and overtake? I can see why you've got us as fifth favourites and while I've said 10th in other thread I reckon that's a floor rather than a ceiling.

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Originally Posted by surge

We finished 8 last season and it's highly likely that 3 (Swansea, Barnsley, Reading) of the teams above us have worse seasons this year probably finishing below us.

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On the subject of last season, the gap between 6th and 7th was 7 points and a huge goal difference (Reading in 7th were 19 goals worse off than Bournemouth in 6th). You have to go as far back as 2005/06 to find a similar gap. On that occasion, it was 8 points and Wolves in 7th were 11 goals worse off than Palace in 6th.

Generally, the gap between 6th and 7th is much smaller - often just a point or even goal difference.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

I don't think that's true at all. For instance, last season it was clear that the three relegated sides were, on paper at least, well above average by this division's standards, and Brentford looked strong too. This year, not so much. I buy the Post's pre-season guide every year and have done so for more than a decade. Never before have I seen anything like that quote from the paper's pundits.

If you exclude the three teams who were promoted last season, the division was generally garbage. The fact that Barnsley and Swansea were able to secure play-off spots with their blatant limitations was telling. Usually, there is a reasonable amount of genuine quality and talent spread throughout the division. Last season there wasn't much. This season there appears to be even less. But maybe you have other ideas?

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Well, that's it. The three relegated sides plus Brentford were a cut above last season. Clearly.

I think this season, the relegated sides will be a cut above, they're perhaps not as good as the three that went up but with Bournemouth as well, it is hard to look past the top 4. People always say how crap the division is and while there may be an element of truth, it is clear nobody has any money so it is hard to capitalise.

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Originally Posted by Pedro de la Rosa

Well, that's it. The three relegated sides plus Brentford were a cut above last season. Clearly.

I think this season, the relegated sides will be a cut above, they're perhaps not as good as the three that went up but with Bournemouth as well, it is hard to look past the top 4. People always say how crap the division is and while there may be an element of truth, it is clear nobody has any money so it is hard to capitalise.

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Middlesbrough have just signed a player for £6.08 million and probably are second highest spenders in the league because of it.

Have Stoke made any significant signings?

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Originally Posted by surge

Middlesbrough have just signed a player for £6.08 million and probably are second highest spenders in the league because of it.

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Only 5 or sides have spent anything whatsoever. And then there's Fulham! QPR certainly dark horses, although they're probably a light shade of dark.

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Originally Posted by Hilts

Have Stoke made any significant signings?

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Sam Surridge for 5.5m (what does that make Moore worth!), Ben Wilmot (1.5m) and Vrancic on a free.

If I had to put money down right now, I might be tempted to bet on us reaching the playoffs. I don't think we will though. Top 2? I can't see that. But you never know. Fulham, West Brom, and Bournemouth have to be better than us on paper. Sheffield United? I don't know. Will Hull, Peterborough or Blackpool have anything to offer?

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Originally Posted by NYCBlue

Fulham, West Brom, and Bournemouth have to be better than us on paper.

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I’m not sure what the situation is with Bournemouth at present but they have a small squad and plenty of injury problems. Their side included no less than ten academy graduates last night.

Great to see optimism on here for our coming season .
I dont share it .
Hopefully I am way of the mark but our style of football has had its day.
Certainly bottom half , maybe bottom 3 .
Even if we move dinosaur Mick on it will be hard to get this collection of hoofball experts playing proper football.
As I said, I really hope I am wrong , looking forward to taking my seat and supporting Cardiff today.
Please pay Tomlin , to provide the afternoon entertainment, even if its in a wheel chair.....

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Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock

Hopefully I am way of the mark but our style of football has had its day. Certainly bottom half, maybe bottom 3.

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I’d rate the chances of a bottom half finish as no more than 15%, and the chances of a bottom three finish as 0%. I don’t see that as optimism, but rather realism.

City are obviously far from great and the football is sure to be grim at times, but it looks a really weak division this time around and McCarthy’s men should be comfortably strong enough to overcome most of the teams at this level despite their blatant limitations.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

I’d rate the chances of a bottom half finish as no more than 15%, and the chances of a bottom three finish as 0%. I don’t see that as optimism, but rather realism.

City are obviously far from great and the football is sure to be grim at times, but it looks a really weak division this time around and McCarthy’s men should be comfortably strong enough to overcome most of the teams at this level despite their blatant limitations.

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at this level, there's usually one or two teams that are better than everyone else and one or two teams that are bad and then everyone else is basically within a few percent of each other. usually the whole midtable is within a few points until the last 1/4 of the season
I don't know enough about the other side's to know all their personnel, and on paper we probably shouldn't be anywhere near being in trouble. however as all teams will be fairly close I think it'll be more important whether teams gel as a team or don't work well as a team. I think it's entirely feasible that our current setup won't work.
we've stripped out all the creators from last season and it's unclear where it's going to come from this time.
we will probably be fine, but it isn't impossible that we won't be.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

we've stripped out all the creators from last season and it's unclear where it's going to come from this time.

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Set-pieces as usual I suspect.

Set plays we will be more or less the most dangerous in the league.Hopefully Giles can provide crosses for Moore. Im sure Collins will be a big upgrade on Glatzel.

I cant believe Stoke have paid 5.5m on Surridge. He wasnt great at Swansea. Better than Vokes though.

Our season just looks like mid table.

Pity we didnt have 2 more creative players.

We had a bit of a purple patch last season , won a few games although playing dreadfully on the whole, this led to a very poor finish to the season .
Does anyone know what our exact form was for the last dozen or so games ?

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Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock

Does anyone know what our exact form was for the last dozen or so games ?

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Won 3, drew 6, lost 3.

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Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock

We had a bit of a purple patch last season , won a few games although playing dreadfully on the whole, this led to a very poor finish to the season .
Does anyone know what our exact form was for the last dozen or so games ?

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I make it 15 points from our last 12 games which is not great.
we did have some injuries though in that period.
mostly though we didn't manage to get the wingbacks involved in the final third as often as our good patch, which completely nullified our attack.
3 attacking players + 2 deep midfielders is just too easy to defend against.
5 attacking players + 2 deep midfielders will cause problems.
I just hope we are bold enough to go for it.

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Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock

Great to see optimism on here for our coming season .
I dont share it .
Hopefully I am way of the mark but our style of football has had its day.
Certainly bottom half , maybe bottom 3 .
Even if we move dinosaur Mick on it will be hard to get this collection of hoofball experts playing proper football.
As I said, I really hope I am wrong , looking forward to taking my seat and supporting Cardiff today.
Please pay Tomlin , to provide the afternoon entertainment, even if its in a wheel chair.....

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Bollox :biggrin: £1,000 bet for charity that we don’t finish in the bottom 3.

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Originally Posted by ninian opinian

Bollox, £1,000 bet for charity that we don’t finish in the bottom 3.

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Are you going to give Jimmy 16/1, because those are the odds?

The best prices available for City this season with the major bookmakers are as follows:

To win the Championship - 16/1
To finish in the top two - 8/1
To win promotion by any means - 11/2
To finish in the top six - 2/1
To finish in the top half - 2/5
To finish in the bottom three - 16/1

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Are you going to give Jimmy 16/1, because those are the odds?

The best prices available for City this season with the major bookmakers are as follows:

To win the Championship - 16/1
To finish in the top two - 8/1
To win promotion by any means - 11/2
To finish in the top six - 2/1
To finish in the top half - 2/5
To finish in the bottom three - 16/1

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The bet is 1,000.

That's how it works.

Its in the wording.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Are you going to give Jimmy 16/1, because those are the odds?

The best prices available for City this season with the major bookmakers are as follows:

To win the Championship - 16/1
To finish in the top two - 8/1
To win promotion by any means - 11/2
To finish in the top six - 2/1
To finish in the top half - 2/5
To finish in the bottom three - 16/1

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Can't say I fancy any of those odds. Maybe the 2/5 if you're into those types of bets. Which I am not.

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Originally Posted by NYCBlue

Can't say I fancy any of those odds.

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As far as I'm concerned, pre-season odds are very seldom appealing. However, it's noticeable that the bookies are a lot more optimistic about City's chances this season than many fans appear to be. To me, that says a lot more about the quality of the division this time around than it does about the current Cardiff team.

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Originally Posted by ninian opinian

Bollox :biggrin: £1,000 bet for charity that we don’t finish in the bottom 3.

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I will take that at 16/1 . Since its for charity .

Where shall we deposit the money to show good intent ?

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Originally Posted by dembethewarrior

The bet is 1,000.

That's how it works.

Its in the wording.

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You generally need two people to agree ( or disagree) for a bet to be set .:thumbup:

I would rather he didn't take the bet because I would possibly be going down to the football with the wrong attitude.:hehe:

We were better today than I had hoped.

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Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock

You generally need two people to agree ( or disagree) for a bet to be set .:thumbup:

I would rather he didn't take the bet because I would possibly be going down to the football with the wrong attitude.:hehe:

We were better today than I had hoped.

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You are correct :thumbup: