6 games to go - a look back at the last 20 Championship seasons

6 games to go and we're in the playoffs. This might be a bit unexpected but nevertheless we're holding on. I make it this will be the 9th season we've appeared in the playoff positions, excluding the two automatic promotion seasons. I think that demonstrates we're among the top teams in this division and can consider ourselves quite a big name now at this level.

We've got 61 points. That's the joint lowest for any team in 6th place at this stage of the season. In fact, it's the second worst record of any team in 6th in terms of wins and goal difference. I think this demonstrates the competitive nature of the division this season. Leeds, on top with 75 points, also have the 2nd worst record of any division leader at this point in 2 decades.

What of the other 3 sides that had 61 points after 40 games? Brighton had 61 points and finished 4th in 2012/13 with 75 points. Leicester finished 5th with 76 points in 2009/10 (before losing to us on penalties). Wolves missed out on the playoffs in 2007/8.

With relatively few games remaining, working out the number of points that teams finishing 6th get is a waste of time. I think a better option is to consider how many points the team in 6th has after 40 games and then how many the team in 6th has at the end of the season. For example, last season Aston Villa had 63 points in 6th place after 40 games. Derby finished 6th with 74 points, so the 6th positioned side gained 11 points over the last 6 games.

The average number of points gained by 6th place is 9.75. That surprised me a little. However, in 2016/17, 6th place had 66 points after 40 games and 80 points at the end of the season as all the sides went on, and needed, excellent runs of form. The season before saw the opposite. 6th place had 67 points after 40 games and only 74 points by the end. Sheffield Wednesday managed just 6 points from 6 games but still managed a top 6 place.

It's worth noting that in the seasons where the points tallies are comparatively low, teams tend to win less points in the battle to get in the playoffs. In the 3 seasons where the team in 6th had 61 points, 70 points was enough for a playoff spot. I suspect the same to be true this season, where the top clubs have a lot of games against each other.

One quirk that I spotted is that only 1 team in 6th place over the last 20 years has finished 6th!

In 20 seasons, 15 teams in the playoffs at this stage have dropped out. Never before has a side in 3rd missed out. Only once has a side in 4th missed out (Preston in 2006/07). Of sides in 5th and 6th there's an even split - 7 in each position has finished outside the playoffs. On that stat alone, we have a roughly two thirds chance of finishing in the playoffs.

No side below 8th has gatecrashed the playoff party. Another very curious quirk is that whenever the teams in 5th or 6th miss out, they end up being replaced (in all bar one occasion) by the team in 7th or 8th respectively. Preston were 7th, we were 5th in 2008/09. We were 8th and Brighton were 6th in 2011/12. I should point out at this point that I have drawn up tables where all the top sides have played 40 games, so that might not always match a league table on a specific date (teams end up with games in hand) but as all teams in the division have played 40 games this season, this had to be the correct way of calculating things. This quirk leads to the horror of all horrors in that, if we did miss out, statistically at least, the side in 8th would have the best chance of overtaking us. I don't need to say any more!!

In short, 70 points should be enough for a top 6 finish and we've got more chance of finishing there than not.

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

6 games to go and we're in the playoffs. This might be a bit unexpected but nevertheless we're holding on. I make it this will be the 9th season we've appeared in the playoff positions, excluding the two automatic promotion seasons. I think that demonstrates we're among the top teams in this division and can consider ourselves quite a big name now at this level.

We've got 61 points. That's the joint lowest for any team in 6th place at this stage of the season. In fact, it's the second worst record of any team in 6th in terms of wins and goal difference. I think this demonstrates the competitive nature of the division this season. Leeds, on top with 75 points, also have the 2nd worst record of any division leader at this point in 2 decades.

What of the other 3 sides that had 61 points after 40 games? Brighton had 61 points and finished 4th in 2012/13 with 75 points. Leicester finished 5th with 76 points in 2009/10 (before losing to us on penalties). Wolves missed out on the playoffs in 2007/8.

With relatively few games remaining, working out the number of points that teams finishing 6th get is a waste of time. I think a better option is to consider how many points the team in 6th has after 40 games and then how many the team in 6th has at the end of the season. For example, last season Aston Villa had 63 points in 6th place after 40 games. Derby finished 6th with 74 points, so the 6th positioned side gained 11 points over the last 6 games.

The average number of points gained by 6th place is 9.75. That surprised me a little. However, in 2016/17, 6th place had 66 points after 40 games and 80 points at the end of the season as all the sides went on, and needed, excellent runs of form. The season before saw the opposite. 6th place had 67 points after 40 games and only 74 points by the end. Sheffield Wednesday managed just 6 points from 6 games but still managed a top 6 place.

It's worth noting that in the seasons where the points tallies are comparatively low, teams tend to win less points in the battle to get in the playoffs. In the 3 seasons where the team in 6th had 61 points, 70 points was enough for a playoff spot. I suspect the same to be true this season, where the top clubs have a lot of games against each other.

One quirk that I spotted is that only 1 team in 6th place over the last 20 years has finished 6th!

In 20 seasons, 15 teams in the playoffs at this stage have dropped out. Never before has a side in 3rd missed out. Only once has a side in 4th missed out (Preston in 2006/07). Of sides in 5th and 6th there's an even split - 7 in each position has finished outside the playoffs. On that stat alone, we have a roughly two thirds chance of finishing in the playoffs.

No side below 8th has gatecrashed the playoff party. Another very curious quirk is that whenever the teams in 5th or 6th miss out, they end up being replaced (in all bar one occasion) by the team in 7th or 8th respectively. Preston were 7th, we were 5th in 2008/09. We were 8th and Brighton were 6th in 2011/12. I should point out at this point that I have drawn up tables where all the top sides have played 40 games, so that might not always match a league table on a specific date (teams end up with games in hand) but as all teams in the division have played 40 games this season, this had to be the correct way of calculating things. This quirk leads to the horror of all horrors in that, if we did miss out, statistically at least, the side in 8th would have the best chance of overtaking us. I don't need to say any more!!

In short, 70 points should be enough for a top 6 finish and we've got more chance of finishing there than not.

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Pray for snow in Derby.

What is the average number of points for the team in 6th ?

What is the average number of points for the team finishing in 7th ?

When looking at teams finishing in 7th what is the average amount of points needed to beat the 7th place finishing team (by a point) ?

Good stuff Eric.
I'd already calculated that 70/71 points should be enough. So 3 wins and a draw from 6 games. Think we need to win our home games.

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Originally Posted by trampie09

What is the average number of points for the team in 6th ?

What is the average number of points for the team finishing in 7th ?

When looking at teams finishing in 7th what is the average amount of points needed to beat the 7th place finishing team (by a point) ?

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All totally irrelevant and I'll explain why.

In 20 years the highest point tally for 6th at this moment in the season was 68 points (2014/15, Derby and Ipswich both had that in 6th and 7th respectively). That season Ipswich finished 6th with 78 points. Unsurprisingly, the seasons that had the highest points after 40 games generally had the highest points after 46 games.

This season has seen the promotion chasers gaining the 2nd worst number of points in 20 years. Working out averages is pointless. For your info 74 points would suffice, but making any claim that is what will be needed is ludicrous, simply because of the much lower than normal points won.

Flip the thing on its head and say this season has seen teams in and around the top 6 with a far higher points tally. Suppose we had 68 points. Claiming 74 would be enough for a playoff spot would be as equally daft!

I seem to remember someone calculating we didn't have a snowball in hell's chance of making the top six some months ago.......:-)

Thanks Eric. At the moment, only Derby appear in with a chance of putting a barnstorming run together that would mean you needed something like seventy four points to get into the top six. Seems to me we can probably afford to lose a couple of matches and, almost certainly, make the top six if we win the other four, but three could well turn out to be enough - we can't afford another Charlton type practice game though.

A win Saturday will be nice, then a decider home to the original snowflakes.....

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

6 games to go and we're in the playoffs. This might be a bit unexpected but nevertheless we're holding on. I make it this will be the 9th season we've appeared in the playoff positions, excluding the two automatic promotion seasons. I think that demonstrates we're among the top teams in this division and can consider ourselves quite a big name now at this level.

We've got 61 points. That's the joint lowest for any team in 6th place at this stage of the season. In fact, it's the second worst record of any team in 6th in terms of wins and goal difference. I think this demonstrates the competitive nature of the division this season. Leeds, on top with 75 points, also have the 2nd worst record of any division leader at this point in 2 decades.

What of the other 3 sides that had 61 points after 40 games? Brighton had 61 points and finished 4th in 2012/13 with 75 points. Leicester finished 5th with 76 points in 2009/10 (before losing to us on penalties). Wolves missed out on the playoffs in 2007/8.

With relatively few games remaining, working out the number of points that teams finishing 6th get is a waste of time. I think a better option is to consider how many points the team in 6th has after 40 games and then how many the team in 6th has at the end of the season. For example, last season Aston Villa had 63 points in 6th place after 40 games. Derby finished 6th with 74 points, so the 6th positioned side gained 11 points over the last 6 games.

The average number of points gained by 6th place is 9.75. That surprised me a little. However, in 2016/17, 6th place had 66 points after 40 games and 80 points at the end of the season as all the sides went on, and needed, excellent runs of form. The season before saw the opposite. 6th place had 67 points after 40 games and only 74 points by the end. Sheffield Wednesday managed just 6 points from 6 games but still managed a top 6 place.

It's worth noting that in the seasons where the points tallies are comparatively low, teams tend to win less points in the battle to get in the playoffs. In the 3 seasons where the team in 6th had 61 points, 70 points was enough for a playoff spot. I suspect the same to be true this season, where the top clubs have a lot of games against each other.

One quirk that I spotted is that only 1 team in 6th place over the last 20 years has finished 6th!

In 20 seasons, 15 teams in the playoffs at this stage have dropped out. Never before has a side in 3rd missed out. Only once has a side in 4th missed out (Preston in 2006/07). Of sides in 5th and 6th there's an even split - 7 in each position has finished outside the playoffs. On that stat alone, we have a roughly two thirds chance of finishing in the playoffs.

No side below 8th has gatecrashed the playoff party. Another very curious quirk is that whenever the teams in 5th or 6th miss out, they end up being replaced (in all bar one occasion) by the team in 7th or 8th respectively. Preston were 7th, we were 5th in 2008/09. We were 8th and Brighton were 6th in 2011/12. I should point out at this point that I have drawn up tables where all the top sides have played 40 games, so that might not always match a league table on a specific date (teams end up with games in hand) but as all teams in the division have played 40 games this season, this had to be the correct way of calculating things. This quirk leads to the horror of all horrors in that, if we did miss out, statistically at least, the side in 8th would have the best chance of overtaking us. I don't need to say any more!!

In short, 70 points should be enough for a top 6 finish and we've got more chance of finishing there than not.

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Got a bit of time on your hands, I see. :hehe:

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Originally Posted by Cyclops

I seem to remember someone calculating we didn't have a snowball in hell's chance of making the top six some months ago.......:-)

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Surely not. Which idiot was that? :hehe:

In fairness, us getting into the playoffs has been quite unexpected.

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Originally Posted by BLUETIT

Got a bit of time on your hands, I see. :hehe:

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Aye. Took about half an hour.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

Thanks Eric. At the moment, only Derby appear in with a chance of putting a barnstorming run together that would mean you needed something like seventy four points to get into the top six. Seems to me we can probably afford to lose a couple of matches and, almost certainly, make the top six if we win the other four, but three could well turn out to be enough - we can't afford another Charlton type practice game though.

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I would agree with that. However, we're talking of a Fulham-esque run of two seasons ago that was so unlikely. I guess that's one problem with stats. The moment you suggest likely outcomes, the unlikely happens and makes a fool out of you!

I think it's between us and Derby, and we're strong favourites due to Derby's run in.

Derby's next 6 games are

Forest (H)
West Brom (A)
Brentford (H)
Cardiff (A)
Leeds (H)
Birmingham (A)

That's a tough run of fixtures and they'd do well to get 10 points.

It's just whether we go on one of our runs where we draw a few and only pick up the odd win. I think we'll get over the line just about. Bristol are in a dreadful run of form and need to win on Saturday to stand any chance so hopefully it plays into our hands that they have to come at us - as when teams sit in and defend - that's when we look awful.

14th July Game against Derby will I think be a shit or bust game for both teams.

Having said that - if we get 6th we'll probably end up playing Brentford ( or possibly WBA ) and I think we'll lose that one

And it's Cardiff City
Cardiff City FC,
We're by far the greatest team in the top half of the Championship,
The world has ever seen...

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Originally Posted by Toadstool

14th July Game against Derby will I think be a shit or bust game for both teams.

Having said that - if we get 6th we'll probably end up playing Brentford ( or possibly WBA ) and I think we'll lose that one

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That’s the great thing, no one expects anything. I can’t even recall if we’ve been in the top 6 all season, once maybe?

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Originally Posted by SunderlandBluebird

I think it's between us and Derby, and we're strong favourites due to Derby's run in.

Derby's next 6 games are

Forest (H)
West Brom (A)
Brentford (H)
Cardiff (A)
Leeds (H)
Birmingham (A)

That's a tough run of fixtures and they'd do well to get 10 points.

It's just whether we go on one of our runs where we draw a few and only pick up the odd win. I think we'll get over the line just about. Bristol are in a dreadful run of form and need to win on Saturday to stand any chance so hopefully it plays into our hands that they have to come at us - as when teams sit in and defend - that's when we look awful.

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Damn, i didnt realise that, pretty tough run in. Ours isnt an easy one either, though we have the chance to put the final nail in the coffin of bristols playoffs hopes saturday.

The game v Derby already looks like itll be massive. and with fulham/forest both winning midweek it does look like just one place up for grabs now.

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Originally Posted by goats

That’s the great thing, no one expects anything. I can’t even recall if we’ve been in the top 6 all season, once maybe?

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No we haven't been there before. We got to 8th after a run of 3 wins on the bounce in Nov/Dec. Back to back wins at Luton and Huddersfield saw us still in 11th after a run of 18 points from 12 games, albeit only 2 of those were lost (too many draws). Then we were 4 points adrift. 2 points from 4 games saw us in 11th but amazingly we were only 1 point further adrift of the playoffs.

Those 4 games were particularly odd in terms of form (when we had draws against Wigan and Brentford and lost to Stoke and Forest). At the same time Preston lost 3 out of 4, Brentford were winless, Forest picked up 5 points while Bristol City won a solitary point. Our dodgy run of form was replicated by others around us and we stayed afloat. Winning 3 of our last 4 has seen us reach the top 6.

It might be worth pointing out that Bristol City haven't won in 8 games and are having their usual end of season slide down the table, Preston have 1 point in 6 games, Blackburn have faded, Swansea and Millwall are inconsistent. Derby have won 5 on the bounce, but those wins have come against Sheffield Wednesday who are out of form, Blackburn (same), Preston (same) and Millwall and Reading who are pretty inconsistent. It'll be interesting to see whether this run continues when they play better teams who are in form. You'd suspect it might - they have the best record of all Championship sides in 2020 (we are 7th in that table).

https://www.soccerstats.com/table.as...ngland2&tid=10 might be of interest. Average points per game of remaining opponents (factoring in home or away performance). Derby's run in is the 2nd most difficult of all Championship sides on paper. Ours is 7th easiest. Of course the game isn't played on paper....

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Originally Posted by TheGoose

The game v Derby already looks like itll be massive. and with fulham/forest both winning midweek it does look like just one place up for grabs now.

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Yes, the top 5 won't be caught by anyone below Derby. Mathematically Derby could catch Forest or Fulham, but the 7 point deficit Derby has to both sides has never been made up in 20 years. The biggest point margin that has been overhauled from this point was 6 points. Funnily enough, the team to miss out had 67 points that season. A point for guessing which side bollocksed things up so spectacularly.....

So I agree. There's a less than 5% chance of Forest or Fulham missing out.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

Thanks Eric. At the moment, only Derby appear in with a chance of putting a barnstorming run together that would mean you needed something like seventy four points to get into the top six. Seems to me we can probably afford to lose a couple of matches and, almost certainly, make the top six if we win the other four, but three could well turn out to be enough - we can't afford another Charlton type practice game though.

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Have you seen Derby's remaining fixtures Paul. Looks tough.
Spedger

I think it's a straight fight between us and Derby for 6th, and sadly I think they will pip us to it. I hope not of course, but they've got Wayne Rooney and we've got Marlon Pack!! It makes the game this weekend at Bristol City vital for us, as I think City are good at hanging on . There are still the others to consider, PNE , Swansea etc. I think we are two far behind Forest and Fulham, 6 points, and Brentford, 8 points. Swansea and PNE are 4 points behind us and Blackburn and Millwall 5 points and even Bristol city 6 points (which makes our game against them vital, can't afford to lose). Blackburn had a bad result this week, and Preston are failing , and Swansea are erratic. We are better than all of those clubs. Derby and us seem to have the momentum at present, opening up a small gap on the rest.

If it stays as it is we'd play Brentford over 2 games in the Semi final, I'd rather have Fulham, Forest or WBA though. but the current two look like going up. We played badly the other night and still drew so i am optimistic but not confident of us making it.

All our home games are midweek, is that an advantage, disadvantage or make no difference at all?

What you guys maybe ain't factored in is that City have recent experience of gaining promotion and many of the team are still playing. The phrase 'battle-hardened' comes to mind.




Well, that's not really a phrase, more like an adjective.

Had us for 73 points before Tuesday I'll stick with that.

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Originally Posted by Bluebina

All our home games are midweek, is that an advantage, disadvantage or make no difference at all?

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Home 2nd tier games played on weekends:
Wins 51.6%
Draws 24.3%
Defeats 24.1%

Home 2nd tier games played midweek:
Wins 52.0%
Draws 27.1%
Defeats 20.9%

Split further...

Tuesdays
Wins 46.7%
Draws 30.4%
Defeats 22.9%

Wednesdays
Wins 57.6%
Draws 23.5%
Defeats 18.9%

As an aside, I've just spotted that Brentford at home just before the lockdown was our 900th home game in the second tier.

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

All totally irrelevant and I'll explain why.

In 20 years the highest point tally for 6th at this moment in the season was 68 points (2014/15, Derby and Ipswich both had that in 6th and 7th respectively). That season Ipswich finished 6th with 78 points. Unsurprisingly, the seasons that had the highest points after 40 games generally had the highest points after 46 games.

This season has seen the promotion chasers gaining the 2nd worst number of points in 20 years. Working out averages is pointless. For your info 74 points would suffice, but making any claim that is what will be needed is ludicrous, simply because of the much lower than normal points won.

Flip the thing on its head and say this season has seen teams in and around the top 6 with a far higher points tally. Suppose we had 68 points. Claiming 74 would be enough for a playoff spot would be as equally daft!

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I understand the point about it being a low point scoring season for the better teams and that a below average points tally might suffice this season, but I was wondering what was the average points tally of the 7th place team was just out of interest.

I looked at the relegation battle from the Prem a few seasons back and at the time (don't quote me on this as I'm doing it from memory) that if you had 35pts you was more likely to go down than stay up and 36pts you was more likely to stay up than go down.

I thought the interesting stat/target was the likely/average points total of the team in 18th place and not 17th place and likewise in the Championship as regards making the playoffs the likely/average points total of the 7th place team is more salient imo than the likely/average points total of the 6th place team as a side would need to beat the 7th place team points tally to make the playoffs as opposed to targeting trying to match the projected 6th place teams points tally.

Derby were very ordinary against us last Saturday. Brentford on Tuesday night were a different matter. They were quick, clever and incisive. They won in second gear. A good team to avoid in the play off semi finals.

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Originally Posted by Pearcey3

Derby were very ordinary against us last Saturday. Brentford on Tuesday night were a different matter. They were quick, clever and incisive. They won in second gear. A good team to avoid in the play off semi finals.

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They’re the best team in the division in my book... won’t be surprised at all if they make an automatic spot

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Originally Posted by Cyclops

I seem to remember someone calculating we didn't have a snowball in hell's chance of making the top six some months ago.......:-)

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Indeed,glass half full stuff

I think we did quite well in our two games against Brentford, they went two up in both of them (didn’t they?), yet Pack scored a screamer ( it was Pack, if I recall) up there and we had them rattled. At our place they started like a train but we reined them in, equalised and were the more likely to snatch a winner. Perhaps we may be the team they’d prefer to avoid.