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The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
As things stand, here's a table showing the current rankings of every team that could finish second in their groups (group, played, country, points, goal difference):
1 B 6 Switzerland 18 11
2 E 7 Poland 18 9
3 A 7 France 16 10
4 I 8 Iceland 16 6
5 B 6 Portugal 15 18
6 G 7 Italy 14 3
7 E 7 Denmark 13 7
8 C 7 Northern Ireland 13 5
9 E 7 Montenegro 13 2
10 F 8 Slovakia 12 5
11 D 7 Serbia 12 3
12 D 7 Wales 11 2
13 I 7 Croatia 11 2
14 I 7 Ukraine 11 1
15 F 7 Scotland 11 -1
16 A 6 Sweden 10 3
17 H 7 Greece 10 3
18 A 7 Netherlands 10 2
19 D 7 Republic of Ireland 10 1
20 A 6 Bulgaria 9 -4
21 F 7 Slovenia 8 2
22 H 6 Bosnia 8 2
23 H 6 Cyprus 4 -7
This is taken from results against the current bottom team in each group. In groups A and B, the team that will finish bottom is unclear, but it makes little difference, except if Bulgaria were to finish 2nd in group A.
Providing Wales beat Ireland, they cannot be caught by Greece, Slovenia, Netherlands or Cyprus - of these Greece are strong candidates to finish second, Netherlands have a chance but have to beat Sweden in their last game. Slovenia are unlikely to finish second as Slovakia host Malta while Cyprus need lots of results to go their way. Also, if Luxembourg finish bottom of group A, Hungary couldn't catch Wales. Scotland would be unlikely to catch Wales barring a victory by 3 more goals than Wales manage.
If Wales only draw with Ireland, we could only guarantee finishing above Slovenia and Cyprus - neither are likely to finish second. If Greece and Bosnia both slip up tonight, then a point would be enough against Ireland. A point would also suffice if Croatia and Ukraine draw (by a similar scoreline or a lower scoring draw). Not sure what would happen if we draw with Ireland and Croatia and Ukraine draw and score 1 more goal each (so 0-0 with us, 1-1 there) as that would mean we'd be level on points, goal difference and goals scored with Croatia. Otherwise, a draw with Ireland means elimination.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
What a stupid system.
So - is a draw likely to get us 2nd?
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Edit - Slovakia couldn't catch Wales, either. Missed that out.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Hilts
What a stupid system.
So - is a draw likely to get us 2nd?
Likely? Well, it's possible. We'll know more tonight. If Bosnia and Greece both fail to win, a draw would be fine regardless of the Ukraine-Croatia result. Otherwise, a draw would only suffice if Ukraine-Croatia is a draw as well.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
If we draw and Serbia lose, wouldnt we still win the group on goal diff?
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Hilts
What a stupid system.
So - is a draw likely to get us 2nd?
Yes, and a play off spot, according to the all-knowing Sky...
http://www.skysports.com/football/ne...n-over-georgia
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MacAdder
Whoops!!
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
El Gwapo
If we draw and Serbia lose, wouldnt we still win the group on goal diff?
Yes, providing Serbia lose by 2 or more, or we draw 7-7 and Serbia don't score.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
Yes, providing Serbia lose by 2 or more, or we draw 7-7 and Serbia don't score.
Ah ok cheers. Scenario 1 is unlikely, scenario 2 is well beyond even a Welsh qualifying campaign
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
Yes, providing Serbia lose by 2 or more, or we draw 7-7 and Serbia don't score.
What if....
Ah feck it, roll on Tuesday!! :angry:
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
El Gwapo
scenario 2 is well beyond even a Welsh qualifying campaign
:hehe: :hehe:
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
As things stand, here's a table showing the current rankings of every team that could finish second in their groups (group, played, country, points, goal difference):
1 B 6 Switzerland 18 11
2 E 7 Poland 18 9
3 A 7 France 16 10
4 I 8 Iceland 16 6
5 B 6 Portugal 15 18
6 G 7 Italy 14 3
7 E 7 Denmark 13 7
8 C 7 Northern Ireland 13 5
9 E 7 Montenegro 13 2
10 F 8 Slovakia 12 5
11 D 7 Serbia 12 3
12 D 7 Wales 11 2
13 I 7 Croatia 11 2
14 I 7 Ukraine 11 1
15 F 7 Scotland 11 -1
16 A 6 Sweden 10 3
17 H 7 Greece 10 3
18 A 7 Netherlands 10 2
19 D 7 Republic of Ireland 10 1
20 A 6 Bulgaria 9 -4
21 F 7 Slovenia 8 2
22 H 6 Bosnia 8 2
23 H 6 Cyprus 4 -7
This is taken from results against the current bottom team in each group. In groups A and B, the team that will finish bottom is unclear, but it makes little difference, except if Bulgaria were to finish 2nd in group A.
Providing Wales beat Ireland, they cannot be caught by Greece, Slovenia, Netherlands or Cyprus - of these Greece are strong candidates to finish second, Netherlands have a chance but have to beat Sweden in their last game. Slovenia are unlikely to finish second as Slovakia host Malta while Cyprus need lots of results to go their way. Also, if Luxembourg finish bottom of group A, Hungary couldn't catch Wales. Scotland would be unlikely to catch Wales barring a victory by 3 more goals than Wales manage.
If Wales only draw with Ireland, we could only guarantee finishing above Slovenia and Cyprus - neither are likely to finish second. If Greece and Bosnia both slip up tonight, then a point would be enough against Ireland. A point would also suffice if Croatia and Ukraine draw (by a similar scoreline or a lower scoring draw). Not sure what would happen if we draw with Ireland and Croatia and Ukraine draw and score 1 more goal each (so 0-0 with us, 1-1 there) as that would mean we'd be level on points, goal difference and goals scored with Croatia. Otherwise, a draw with Ireland means elimination.
you are enjoying this arent you :thumbup:
I get the feeling it appeals to some " maths thing " you have going on :hehe::hehe:
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
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Originally Posted by
blue matt
you are enjoying this arent you :thumbup:
I get the feeling it appeals to some " maths thing " you have going on :hehe::hehe:
Yes! :hehe:
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
Yes! :hehe:
Well done Eric for your constant updates. I have smoke coming out of my ears even reading your figures, never mind trying to work all that out myself! Lol!
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
As things stand we really need another favour from Cyprus. We need them to hold Greece. We would then only need to draw on Monday. As it stands it looks like we will need to beat Ireland
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
Yes! :hehe:
:thumbup:
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Pearcey3
As things stand we really need another favour from Cyprus. We need them to hold Greece. We would then only need to draw on Monday. As it stands it looks like we will need to beat Ireland
Yes, or Ukraine and Croatia draw on Monday night.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
Yes, or Ukraine and Croatia draw on Monday night.
Eric. There is no way that will end in a draw. We will not be that lucky. It’s down to Cyprus.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
how is our goal difference 2?
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Pearcey3
Eric. There is no way that will end in a draw. We will not be that lucky. It’s down to Cyprus.
I think you're right. Just mentioning as a statistical possibility.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
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Originally Posted by
lazbian
how is our goal difference 2?
Take away the Moldova results. We've been beaten Austria and Georgia by a solitary goal.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Pearcey3
As things stand we really need another favour from Cyprus. We need them to hold Greece. We would then only need to draw on Monday. As it stands it looks like we will need to beat Ireland
I now kind of hope we need to win it tbh. We can win the group with 3 points too and I'd like to see us go for it. We're at home and I think we're a better team so would like try try and get it done and dusted on Monday.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
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Originally Posted by
Baloo
I now kind of hope we need to win it tbh. We can win the group with 3 points too and I'd like to see us go for it. We're at home and I think we're a better team so would like try try and get it done and dusted on Monday.
I have a horrible feeling we will draw on Monday night and go through the entire campaign unbeaten having never been behind in any game which I suspect will be a record. Slovakia will pip us to the final play off place.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
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Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
Take away the Moldova results. We've been beaten Austria and Georgia by a solitary goal.
realised that after i wrote it
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Pearcey3
I have a horrible feeling we will draw on Monday night and go through the entire campaign unbeaten having never been behind in any game which I suspect will be a record. Slovakia will pip us to the final play off place.
Can that happen, this format is spinning me out, Slovakia are playing Malta who are bottom, can’t they not overtake us as the are playing the bottom team in their group
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Actually never mind I’ve just realised why they can 😂
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
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Originally Posted by
gronovic
Can that happen, this format is spinning me out, Slovakia are playing Malta who are bottom, can’t they not overtake us as the are playing the bottom team in their group
Yes they can because they will be on 12 points net of results against the bottom side which will be the same as us if we draw but they have a better goal difference. We have to win on Monday night.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Who the hell come up with this format lmfao, never used my brain so much in my life
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
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Originally Posted by
gronovic
Who the hell come up with this format lmfao, never used my brain so much in my life
It’s appalling.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Pearcey3
I have a horrible feeling we will draw on Monday night and go through the entire campaign unbeaten having never been behind in any game which I suspect will be a record. Slovakia will pip us to the final play off place.
At the same time, if we finish with only 2 wins against the other top-4 teams in the group we haven't really stamped much authority either.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
If we draw 0-0 and Ukraine- Croatia finishes 1-1 we would have same points, same goal difference and same goals scored as Croatia. It then goes to FairPlay , they have one red card and so do we. Then goes to yellow cards, they have had 9 , we have had 13 so we would miss out on number of yellow cards! Surely not even Wales could miss out like that, it would be as unbearable as the Bodin penalty!
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WRe: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
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Originally Posted by
Don Corleone
If we draw 0-0 and Ukraine- Croatia finishes 1-1 we would have same points, same goal difference and same goals scored as Croatia. It then goes to FairPlay , they have one red card and so do we. Then goes to yellow cards, they have had 9 , we have had 13 so we would miss out on number of yellow cards! Surely not even Wales could miss out like that, it would be as unbearable as the Bodin penalty!
It is absurd and could so easily have been avoided by having just eight groups either by getting rid of the minnows like Gibraltar and Kosovo or by having bigger groups.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
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Originally Posted by
Baloo
At the same time, if we finish with only 2 wins against the other top-4 teams in the group we haven't really stamped much authority either.
Slovakia have lost four games in their group!
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
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Originally Posted by
Igovernor
Yes, though a pity it doesn't include info about all possible 2nd placed teams as these tables never do.
Of the 4 teams on 13 points there, Denmark have a relatively easy tie (Greece still have yet to play Gibraltar and the result won't count). Sweden go to Holland and Norn Ireland go to Norway. I'd be amazed if they both won those games.
In any case, a win leapfrogs us over Greece. Other results are irrelevant. Win and we're in the playoffs. Win and Georgia does us a favour and forget the playoffs.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
do the ni and scotland games today have any bearing on us?
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
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Originally Posted by
lazbian
do the ni and scotland games today have any bearing on us?
Not really.
NI have already qualified for play offs.
If Scotland win they would have more points than us should we only draw on Monday.
Should Scotland fail to win then the likelihood is Slovakia will then finish 2nd as they are home to Malta. They also have a better goal difference than us so a point in Monday would be no good.
Therefore as this group now has no bearing on our result Monday I will be supporting our Celtic brothers today.
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
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Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
Yes, though a pity it doesn't include info about all possible 2nd placed teams as these tables never do.
Of the 4 teams on 13 points there, Denmark have a relatively easy tie (Greece still have yet to play Gibraltar and the result won't count). Sweden go to Holland and Norn Ireland go to Norway. I'd be amazed if they both won those games.
In any case, a win leapfrogs us over Greece. Other results are irrelevant. Win and we're in the playoffs. Win and Georgia does us a favour and forget the playoffs.
Yeah, but what if we draw?
:hide:
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Re: The race to avoid being the worst 2nd placed country
If Slovakia draw with Malta and Scotland draw with Slovenia. Surely we will only need a draw tomorrow to get a play off place.
Spedger
