First steps to coming out of lockdown?

Under thirties with no underlying health conditions and not living with parents allowed out first?

It looks like we are still trying herd immunity, just without the steep peak?

People with immunity, primary school kids back to school so the above could go to work?

It's not going to be easy to do is it, arguments for and against all suggestions I would imagine?

Send back industries that can't work from home first. Loosen restrictions, in areas without high number of cases, on other workers.

Maybe let schools back so people can work without child care (but aren't they a big spreader of the virus?).

Has there been any news on this at all?

Until there is a vaccine I suppose it would be possible to ease the lockdown in a 'blind' manner by turning the tap back for lower risk age groups, schools, certain industries, some low infection geographical areas etc.

But unless we have adequate testing and tracing - and the UK is way off that now, and at less than 15% of the Hancock target by the end of the month - it will all be done on the basis of total trial and error based on fluctuating infection and death rates.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jon1959

Until there is a vaccine I suppose it would be possible to ease the lockdown in a 'blind' manner by turning the tap back for lower risk age groups, schools, certain industries, some low infection geographical areas etc.

But unless we have adequate testing and tracing - and the UK is way off that now, and at less than 15% of the Hancock target by the end of the month - it will all be done on the basis of total trial and error based on fluctuating infection and death rates.

---

I can see the clammer to get the economy going but it's a very fine balancing act, you're right we desperately need a vaccine, let's hope that Oxford study works and we have a vaccine developed in the UK by September.

Could the UK use it for Brexit negotiations and trade deals with the US, that would be handy?

I saw the way czech republic who admittedly have handled it quite well and had very low infections and deaths are going to do it:

Smaller shops not located in shopping centres start to do business from 27th April
Larger outdoor shopping malls and fitness centres without changing rooms from 11th May
Restaurants and pubs can serve products in outdoor beer gardens from 25th May
25th May government will open outdoor parts of zoos
8th June Shopping malls, restaurants, pubs, hotels, haridressers, salons, theatres, castles, zoos and cultural and sports events to 50 people as well as larger weddings

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

I saw the way czech republic who admittedly have handled it quite well and had very low infections and deaths are going to do it:

Smaller shops not located in shopping centres start to do business from 27th April
Larger outdoor shopping malls and fitness centres without changing rooms from 11th May
Restaurants and pubs can serve products in outdoor beer gardens from 25th May
25th May government will open outdoor parts of zoos
8th June Shopping malls, restaurants, pubs, hotels, haridressers, salons, theatres, castles, zoos and cultural and sports events to 50 people as well as larger weddings

---

Wow that sounds fairly sensible/logical, and they can always slow down at any point if they need too?

The problem with other countries plans is the size of the population and the size of the country might lend itself to something that may not be so practical in a relatively small but densely populated country like UK.
Places lie the Czech repubilc, Belgium and Sweded for example have quite small populations ans may be able to act in ways we couldn't.

I'm dreading them reopening schools. I have one in nursery and one in primary school.

If the schools reopen I am legally required to send them out as cannon fodder for wave 2.

I think schools will reopen first (possibly excluding hotspots like London).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bluebina

I can see the clammer to get the economy going but it's a very fine balancing act, you're right we desperately need a vaccine, let's hope that Oxford study works and we have a vaccine developed in the UK by September.

Could the UK use it for Brexit negotiations and trade deals with the US, that would be handy?

---

Could give us some bargaining power. I heard that 46% of vaccines are being developed in North America (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...date-covid-19/). I thought that Trump's response would lead to US decline but the vaccine could reduce this.

But with vaccines, they could give a certificate to people who had it and allow them to go out but the issue is how can it be enforced?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO

I think schools will reopen first (possibly excluding hotspots like London).

---

True because schools would need to reopen either earlier or at the same time as parents would go into work.

With London, it seems to be ahead and cases were declining a week or two ago. Maybe it would be best to ease measures there first, considering how much of the British economy is based there?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by xsnaggle

The problem with other countries plans is the size of the population and the size of the country might lend itself to something that may not be so practical in a relatively small but densely populated country like UK.
Places lie the Czech repubilc, Belgium and Sweded for example have quite small populations ans may be able to act in ways we couldn't.

---

Wales and Scotland both have smaller populations than Czech Republic, I'd imagine it would be up to our devolved govs

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by adz-a32

True because schools would need to reopen either earlier or at the same time as parents would go into work.

With London, it seems to be ahead and cases were declining a week or two ago. Maybe it would be best to ease measures there first, considering how much of the British economy is based there?

---

As soon as everyone is on the tube it'll spread again. I'm going to be WFH as long as I can get away with it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

As soon as everyone is on the tube it'll spread again. I'm going to be WFH as long as I can get away with it.

---

True. Maybe do certain industries first? Or maybe because many commuters are from out of London, the Tube won’t be as crammed? Don’t have the exact stats so it’s all speculation...

This was posted on another forum by a guy that lives in Italy.



I wanted to share an important update we have received here in Italy.

There has been talk for a while of a 3 phase plan moving into April, and we have received the draft of what will happen moving forward. I expect many countries will adopt a similar approach, particularly as some sectors share a mutual interest.


PHASE ONE

We are currently in this phase now we are seeing a trending drop in the number of new cases, deaths and people in critical care.

Since a week or 2 you can now exercise 200 metres from your home, including dog walking that wasn't allowed in the 2nd half of March

14th April (so yesterday) they announced libraries and newsagents would re-open, maintining current regulations on distancing and wearing a mask.

18th April, some farms and factories can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.


PHASE TWO

4th May, you will be allowed to go out and about, however it is obligatory for everyone to wear a mask and follow distancing rules.

4th May, Some clothes shops and DIY centres can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.

11th May, Some offices can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.

18th May, Some bars and restaurants can re-open, as well as some other companies in this sector as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.

25th May, Hairdresses, barbers and salons can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing and it will be appointment only, with one customer at a time.

31st May, Serie A resumes. Other sports can also resume however must be played with no audience until further notice.

8th June, Sports Centres can re-open for individual sporting activities only or for classes with low volume and that can respect the distancing rules.


PHASE THREE

September 2020 - Schools will re-open for high school students and above (age 13+) It is not clear when children under 13 will go back to school, it may not happen in 2020.

December 2020 - Cinemas and theatres can re-open.

March 2021 - Nightclubs and other similar group and close contact activities can resume.

April 2021 - Only in 12 months the border will be re-opened. No holidays or going abroad is allowed until this time. This is also subject to the destination and how they are coping and what rules they have in place.

If there are no holidays or going abroad for 12 months won't every airline go bust?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Wash DC Blue

This was posted on another forum by a guy that lives in Italy.



I wanted to share an important update we have received here in Italy.

There has been talk for a while of a 3 phase plan moving into April, and we have received the draft of what will happen moving forward. I expect many countries will adopt a similar approach, particularly as some sectors share a mutual interest.


PHASE ONE

We are currently in this phase now we are seeing a trending drop in the number of new cases, deaths and people in critical care.

Since a week or 2 you can now exercise 200 metres from your home, including dog walking that wasn't allowed in the 2nd half of March

14th April (so yesterday) they announced libraries and newsagents would re-open, maintining current regulations on distancing and wearing a mask.

18th April, some farms and factories can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.


PHASE TWO

4th May, you will be allowed to go out and about, however it is obligatory for everyone to wear a mask and follow distancing rules.

4th May, Some clothes shops and DIY centres can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.

11th May, Some offices can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.

18th May, Some bars and restaurants can re-open, as well as some other companies in this sector as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.

25th May, Hairdresses, barbers and salons can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing and it will be appointment only, with one customer at a time.

31st May, Serie A resumes. Other sports can also resume however must be played with no audience until further notice.

8th June, Sports Centres can re-open for individual sporting activities only or for classes with low volume and that can respect the distancing rules.


PHASE THREE

September 2020 - Schools will re-open for high school students and above (age 13+) It is not clear when children under 13 will go back to school, it may not happen in 2020.

December 2020 - Cinemas and theatres can re-open.

March 2021 - Nightclubs and other similar group and close contact activities can resume.

April 2021 - Only in 12 months the border will be re-opened. No holidays or going abroad is allowed until this time. This is also subject to the destination and how they are coping and what rules they have in place.

---

Good luck with that

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Wash DC Blue

This was posted on another forum by a guy that lives in Italy.



I wanted to share an important update we have received here in Italy.

There has been talk for a while of a 3 phase plan moving into April, and we have received the draft of what will happen moving forward. I expect many countries will adopt a similar approach, particularly as some sectors share a mutual interest.


PHASE ONE

We are currently in this phase now we are seeing a trending drop in the number of new cases, deaths and people in critical care.

Since a week or 2 you can now exercise 200 metres from your home, including dog walking that wasn't allowed in the 2nd half of March

14th April (so yesterday) they announced libraries and newsagents would re-open, maintining current regulations on distancing and wearing a mask.

18th April, some farms and factories can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.


PHASE TWO

4th May, you will be allowed to go out and about, however it is obligatory for everyone to wear a mask and follow distancing rules.

4th May, Some clothes shops and DIY centres can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.

11th May, Some offices can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.

18th May, Some bars and restaurants can re-open, as well as some other companies in this sector as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.

25th May, Hairdresses, barbers and salons can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing and it will be appointment only, with one customer at a time.

31st May, Serie A resumes. Other sports can also resume however must be played with no audience until further notice.

8th June, Sports Centres can re-open for individual sporting activities only or for classes with low volume and that can respect the distancing rules.


PHASE THREE

September 2020 - Schools will re-open for high school students and above (age 13+) It is not clear when children under 13 will go back to school, it may not happen in 2020.

December 2020 - Cinemas and theatres can re-open.

March 2021 - Nightclubs and other similar group and close contact activities can resume.

April 2021 - Only in 12 months the border will be re-opened. No holidays or going abroad is allowed until this time. This is also subject to the destination and how they are coping and what rules they have in place.

---

I really don’t want to wear a mask for a year

No footy or other sporting events or anything else which attracts crowds like concerts in Italy until further notice then. That's grim.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bluebina

People with immunity, primary school kids back to school so the above could go to work?

It's not going to be easy to do is it, arguments for and against all suggestions I would imagine?

---

Lots of top scientists saying keeping kids off school is counter productive....I know a few folk doing important jobs from home related to this virus with their kids running around them.....

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bluebina

I can see the clammer to get the economy going but it's a very fine balancing act, you're right we desperately need a vaccine, let's hope that Oxford study works and we have a vaccine developed in the UK by September.

Could the UK use it for Brexit negotiations and trade deals with the US, that would be handy?

---

Strange that places like travis Perkins have shut, surely they should try and keep the building trade going......

Does anyone have a list of countries for which wearing masks in public is mandatory? It's strange that some do have that requirement while others don't as I assume they are acting on the best advice of similarly qualified public health experts.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Welshcake.

I'm dreading them reopening schools. I have one in nursery and one in primary school.

If the schools reopen I am legally required to send them out as cannon fodder for wave 2.

---

As it’s probably been around since last October, maybe even earlier, so I wouldn’t worry too much. I know lots of people who had all these symptoms around Christmas when everyone just assumed it was a rough seasonal flu. Great if a vaccine does arrive in September
But that’s being very hopeful so let’s get the economy going and kids in school so we all have a stable place to carry on in!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Wash DC Blue

This was posted on another forum by a guy that lives in Italy.



I wanted to share an important update we have received here in Italy.

There has been talk for a while of a 3 phase plan moving into April, and we have received the draft of what will happen moving forward. I expect many countries will adopt a similar approach, particularly as some sectors share a mutual interest.


PHASE ONE

We are currently in this phase now we are seeing a trending drop in the number of new cases, deaths and people in critical care.

Since a week or 2 you can now exercise 200 metres from your home, including dog walking that wasn't allowed in the 2nd half of March

14th April (so yesterday) they announced libraries and newsagents would re-open, maintining current regulations on distancing and wearing a mask.

18th April, some farms and factories can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.


PHASE TWO

4th May, you will be allowed to go out and about, however it is obligatory for everyone to wear a mask and follow distancing rules.

4th May, Some clothes shops and DIY centres can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.

11th May, Some offices can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.

18th May, Some bars and restaurants can re-open, as well as some other companies in this sector as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing.

25th May, Hairdresses, barbers and salons can re-open as long as they can guarantee they meet the regulations of distancing and mask wearing and it will be appointment only, with one customer at a time.

31st May, Serie A resumes. Other sports can also resume however must be played with no audience until further notice.

8th June, Sports Centres can re-open for individual sporting activities only or for classes with low volume and that can respect the distancing rules.


PHASE THREE

September 2020 - Schools will re-open for high school students and above (age 13+) It is not clear when children under 13 will go back to school, it may not happen in 2020.

December 2020 - Cinemas and theatres can re-open.

March 2021 - Nightclubs and other similar group and close contact activities can resume.

April 2021 - Only in 12 months the border will be re-opened. No holidays or going abroad is allowed until this time. This is also subject to the destination and how they are coping and what rules they have in place.

---

My mate lives near Venice, he has business here and is hoping to fly back here mid May! There will be no airlines or clubs to open in a year if they do this....

I watched a Horizon documentary the other day on pandemics (was from a few years ago). They had a lot of clips of press conferences from the 1980s where people were being promised a vaccine for the HIV virus within 2 years of that being discovered. Never happened, took decades before any sort of reliable treatment for symptoms appeared. This is a very different virus obviously but you can't assume they will ever find a vaccine or treatment and we may just have to live with the fact that everyone will get it sooner or later and lots of people will die.

The temporary hospitals being thrown up may end up being modern-day leper colonies, once up and running they can send everyone back to work

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by goats

As it’s probably been around since last October, maybe even earlier, so I wouldn’t worry too much. I know lots of people who had all these symptoms around Christmas when everyone just assumed it was a rough seasonal flu. Great if a vaccine does arrive in September
But that’s being very hopeful so let’s get the economy going and kids in school so we all have a stable place to carry on in!

---

Whilst I would like to believe that is true, it isn't backed by fact. We didn't have a confirmed case in the UK until the end of Jan 20 so I can't really trust a load of Karens on Facey with the sniffles.

I think we will have a vaccine by Sept but the manufacturing ramp up with take some months.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by goats

As it’s probably been around since last October, maybe even earlier, so I wouldn’t worry too much. I know lots of people who had all these symptoms around Christmas when everyone just assumed it was a rough seasonal flu. Great if a vaccine does arrive in September
But that’s being very hopeful so let’s get the economy going and kids in school so we all have a stable place to carry on in!

---

You know lots of people who were completely unable to get out of bed for a few days around Christmas, with severe muscle pain, weakness and dizziness ? Because that's what real flu is. Or did they just have bad colds?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by lardy

You know lots of people who were completely unable to get out of bed for a few days around Christmas, with severe muscle pain, weakness and dizziness ? Because that's what real flu is. Or did they just have bad colds?

---

I know what it is, I caught it once or twice in my 47 years too....yeah bed ridden

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

If there are no holidays or going abroad for 12 months won't every airline go bust?

---

As soon as I started working, I prioritised getting enough savings so that I could continue to live if I was out of work for 12 months. The reason, I saw a family member get seriously ill and had to retire early at 44. The other reason, the more I save, the quicker I can quit work. A lot of people see this as "bragging", but the same people go on about their flash cars, holidays etc etc. I use credit cards for one reason, so that someone can hold my outgoings for a month before I pay them off. That means I have a bit of money doing a bit of work in the meantime.

I am surprised that these huge companies, in some cases, seem incapable of surviving for a week or two with zero income.

I suspect that borders will open bit by bit. We could, possibly, see the same sorts of restrictions that some countries have in place for Yellow Fever.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by lardy

You know lots of people who were completely unable to get out of bed for a few days around Christmas, with severe muscle pain, weakness and dizziness ? Because that's what real flu is. Or did they just have bad colds?

---

I used to call a heavy cold "the flu". Then I had "the flu". Only the once, and I hope never to get it again.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Philo2

I watched a Horizon documentary the other day on pandemics (was from a few years ago). They had a lot of clips of press conferences from the 1980s where people were being promised a vaccine for the HIV virus within 2 years of that being discovered. Never happened, took decades before any sort of reliable treatment for symptoms appeared. This is a very different virus obviously but you can't assume they will ever find a vaccine or treatment and we may just have to live with the fact that everyone will get it sooner or later and lots of people will die.

The temporary hospitals being thrown up may end up being modern-day leper colonies, once up and running they can send everyone back to work

---

I agree with you. I believe the quickest a vaccine was ever produced was 5 years.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by goats

Strange that places like travis Perkins have shut, surely they should try and keep the building trade going......

---

Staff wages being subsidised by the government, no reducing of existing stock that can’t be replaced by furloughed suppliers, so no suppliers to pay, no vehicles to run & maintain, maybe a relaxing of rent on premises. When the crisis abates they’ll have a yard full of existing stock whereas if they’d stayed open it would have been whittled down by the builders that are still working and they’d have to wait for suppliers to restock. They’ve got it worked out to a tee. The few builders merchants that have stayed open (mostly one off local firms) while making hay while the sun shines at present will eventually run out of the most sought after materials, have to wait for suppliers to get up and running again and maybe go through a lean patch with the government furlough financial help no longer available. They’ll drop their employees then like a shot house seat.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

I saw the way czech republic who admittedly have handled it quite well and had very low infections and deaths are going to do it:

Smaller shops not located in shopping centres start to do business from 27th April
Larger outdoor shopping malls and fitness centres without changing rooms from 11th May
Restaurants and pubs can serve products in outdoor beer gardens from 25th May
25th May government will open outdoor parts of zoos
8th June Shopping malls, restaurants, pubs, hotels, haridressers, salons, theatres, castles, zoos and cultural and sports events to 50 people as well as larger weddings

---

i found it interesting that some of the countries that helped out the refugees back in 2015/16 (which i applaud them for doing so) are getting hit hard now...Germany took in the most followed by in no correct order Spain Italy and France, i wonder if there's any correlation.
side note:
Sweden has noted a worrying stat that ethnic minorities in Sweden figure quite high in the deaths recorded.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO

I agree with you. I believe the quickest a vaccine was ever produced was 5 years.

---

After extensive research (3 clicks on Google) I can reveal that a vaccine for Zika virus was developed and ready for testing in 7 months - back in 2015. Then the virus fizzled out before clinical trials could start.

This time around - with more international collaboration, greater spread and massively greater economic and social consequences - most informed opinion (scientists not football message board experts) has been saying 12-18 months for at least the last 2 months. That might involve fast tracking a few stages.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jon1959

After extensive research (3 clicks on Google) I can reveal that a vaccine for Zika virus was developed and ready for testing in 7 months - back in 2015. Then the virus fizzled out before clinical trials could start.

This time around - with more international collaboration, greater spread and massively greater economic and social consequences - most informed opinion (scientists not football message board experts) has been saying 12-18 months for at least the last 2 months. That might involve fast tracking a few stages.

---

Well, in that case I’m sticking with the football message board experts then:hehe:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jon1959

After extensive research (3 clicks on Google) I can reveal that a vaccine for Zika virus was developed and ready for testing in 7 months - back in 2015. Then the virus fizzled out before clinical trials could start.

---

Ready for testing. It hadn't undergone any clinical trials. It hadn't been mass produced. Its chances of success could not be determined.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ToTaL ITK

i found it interesting that some of the countries that helped out the refugees back in 2015/16 (which i applaud them for doing so) are getting hit hard now...Germany took in the most followed by in no correct order Spain Italy and France, i wonder if there's any correlation.
side note:
Sweden has noted a worrying stat that ethnic minorities in Sweden figure quite high in the deaths recorded.

---

Germany isn’t as badly affected though

This won't please sports watchers at all. From the BBC Coronavirus Wales live reports:


Mass gatherings 'could be banned for a year'
Dr Meirion Evans
BBCCopyright: BBC
Dr Meirion Evans has worked as a consultant epidemiologist for Public Health Wales. Dr Meirion Evans has worked as a consultant epidemiologist for Public Health Wales
Mass gatherings could be banned in Wales for more than a year while the hunt for a vaccine continues, a senior government adviser says.

Dr Meirion Evans, professional adviser to Wales' chief medical officer, says the restrictions could remain until a vaccination is routinely available.

However, he says some lockdown measures could be relaxed over the coming weeks.

Official figures show 463 people have died with coronavirus in Wales, with 6,118 confirmed cases.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jon1959

This time around - with more international collaboration, greater spread and massively greater economic and social consequences - most informed opinion (scientists not football message board experts) has been saying 12-18 months for at least the last 2 months. That might involve fast tracking a few stages.

---

With regards to "most informed opinion". Has a survey been undertaken that backs that up? The claims of there being vaccines ready in 12-18 months are definitely catching the headlines. There are quite a few people who are a bit more reserved about the chances.

Michael Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology at Harvard says

Quote:

---

Twelve to 15 months has been a timeframe that's been passed around as a minimum that it could take to develop a vaccine and bring it to market. But there's a caveat out there. That 12-to-15-month timeframe assumes that the vaccine actually works and protects us. But that's actually really the hard part ... finding the right combination of things to put in the vaccine to make sure that it elicits a good amount of immunological protection. And so it could be that 12 months from now, we're starting back at ground zero with a new trial.

I think that 12 to 15 months is probably not the most realistic timeframe. I anticipate that it will be quite a bit longer, if ever. And it's important to remember that we don't have any useful vaccines currently for many of the seasonal viruses that we see every year.

---

There are quite a few others out there. Dr Peter Hotez for one. Also, the inventor of the rotavirus vaccine said

Quote:

---

When Dr. Fauci said 12 to 18 months, I thought that was ridiculously optimistic,and I’m sure he did, too.

---

I am not saying that it is impossible for a vaccine to be produced in 12-18 months - I don't really know if it is possible or not. However, if you look at the history of vaccines, one has not been clinically trialled and mass produced in that time frame.

Again, not that this is in any way related, we were told antibody tests would be available within days. From memory, this was a couple of days after the lockdown started. They are available, but they are too unreliable. So, until these scientists explain why a vaccine will be available in 12-18 months, based on current progress, tests, results etc then I will remain cautious about the claims.