WHO warns of 'second peak' in areas where COVID-19 declining

"The disease can jump up at any time," WHO emergencies head Dr. Mike Ryan said.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/w...id-19-n1214406

I just get the feeling that the only thing that could put a stop to people starting to ignore the lockdown, or social distancing guidelines, is a massive 2nd wave in somewhere like Spain or Italy.

It seems pretty obvious that you can get a second wave anywhere the virus is declining. If it wasn't declining it wouldn't be a second wave would it?
I second wave "Could" that magic word again. But in fact you may get a second wave whenever you lift quarantine restrictions, whether earlier or later, then again you may not!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by The Bloop

I just get the feeling that the only thing that could put a stop to people starting to ignore the lockdown, or social distancing guidelines, is a massive 2nd wave in somewhere like Spain or Italy.

---

some massive waves in Portugal [Nazare].

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by xsnaggle

It seems pretty obvious that you can get a second wave anywhere the virus is declining. If it wasn't declining it wouldn't be a second wave would it?

---

I don't think that is the point being made. The aim is to end this wave and have no further outbreaks.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by xsnaggle

It seems pretty obvious that you can get a second wave anywhere the virus is declining. If it wasn't declining it wouldn't be a second wave would it?
I second wave "Could" that magic word again. But in fact you may get a second wave whenever you lift quarantine restrictions, whether earlier or later, then again you may not!

---

No scientific basis for 'second wave' either. As you say, 'could' , 'might' 'possibly'.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

No scientific basis for 'second wave' either. As you say, 'could' , 'might' 'possibly'.

---

Isn't the scientific basis that it speads quite easily when people are interacting closely? If everything goes back to normal you'd expect a jump in number of infections, you just have to hope people are behaving considerately so it doesn't spread as quickly as it did when everyone was acting as normal and that the people who've had the virus will be immune to getting it again.

Maybe I don't understand by what you mean by no scientific basis?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

some massive waves in Portugal [Nazare].

---

🏄👍

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

No scientific basis for 'second wave' either.

---

Isn't there? Are you saying there is no scientific evidence that second waves could happen. Remember, science isn't about telling us exactly what will happen, but what is likely to happen under certain conditions.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

No scientific basis for 'second wave' either. As you say, 'could' , 'might' 'possibly'.

---

The scientific basis for a second wave:

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-epidemic-waves/

The first wave is surely a pretty good scientific basis for the second wave anyway isn't it?

Am I being stupid here? I feel like I'm really missing something.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

The first wave is surely a pretty good scientific basis for the second wave anyway isn't it?

Am I being stupid here? I feel like I'm really missing something.

---

Who actually said that? It is stunning.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

No scientific basis for 'second wave' either. As you say, 'could' , 'might' 'possibly'.

---

Been trying to scare people with this for ages now, first it was people in London parks, then bank holidays, then VE Day, where is the second wave? :sherlock: oh that’s right it’s coming in October now

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by goats

Been trying to scare people with this for ages now, first it was people in London parks, then bank holidays, then VE Day, where is the second wave? :sherlock: oh that’s right it’s coming in October now

---

The second wave was always talked about as being in the autumn. Are you thinking of surges?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by xsnaggle

Who actually said that? It is stunning.

---

I said that, the first wave was caused by people getting infected going about daily life. Unless the virus disappears completely people going back to every day life are going to start spreading it again and you'll get another peak that way.

That's ignoring the fact that they expect a second wave in the autumn too.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

I said that, the first wave was caused by people getting infected going about daily life. Unless the virus disappears completely people going back to every day life are going to start spreading it again and you'll get another peak that way.

That's ignoring the fact that they expect a second wave in the autumn too.

---

Unless some kind of control can be found to either eliminate it or reduce it to a minor sickness for a much greater percentage of the population than now.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

I said that, the first wave was caused by people getting infected going about daily life. Unless the virus disappears completely people going back to every day life are going to start spreading it again and you'll get another peak that way.

That's ignoring the fact that they expect a second wave in the autumn too.

---

What is the progress of the vaccine? If it's going to come by autumn, couldn't it offset the effects of the second wave a bit? I do worry that if we get back to normal too soon then a second wave would happen as people may assume the danger has gone and that seems to be happening now. First time, hardly anyone had the foresight to know what'll happen but we can learn from what has happened and what is happening and apply that to pre-empt the second wave. But issue is whether the government would do anything or have a reactive approach again

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by adz-a32

What is the progress of the vaccine? If it's going to come by autumn, couldn't it offset the effects of the second wave a bit? I do worry that if we get back to normal too soon then a second wave would happen as people may assume the danger has gone and that seems to be happening now. First time, hardly anyone had the foresight to know what'll happen but we can learn from what has happened and what is happening and apply that to pre-empt the second wave. But issue is whether the government would do anything or have a reactive approach again

---

A second wave will happen. The virus isn't going to disappear on its own, and the world won't be in lockdown until then, so it's inevitable.

Will there be a vaccine by then? Seems hard to believe there'll be one that's tested, effective and mass produced in less than six months.

But there's also no real.reason for governments not to respond much better this time, other than incompetence. Hopefully outbreaks should be more easily contained.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by lardy

A second wave will happen. The virus isn't going to disappear on its own, and the world won't be in lockdown until then, so it's inevitable.

Will there be a vaccine by then? Seems hard to believe there'll be one that's tested, effective and mass produced in less than six months.

But there's also no real.reason for governments not to respond much better this time, other than incompetence. Hopefully outbreaks should be more easily contained.

---

True. I heard reports saying by October but the issue is that we would probably not be fully aware of the effectiveness

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO

Isn't there? Are you saying there is no scientific evidence that second waves could happen. Remember, science isn't about telling us exactly what will happen, but what is likely to happen under certain conditions.

---

Like most, I've read scores of experts' [not conspiracists] views on CV19. I may be wrong but no-one has based the 2nd wave scenario on any historical precedent. Like everyone since this thing started, they're making assumptions, predictions, and speculations.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Like most, I've read scores of experts' [not conspiracists] views on CV19. I may be wrong but no-one has based the 2nd wave scenario on any historical precedent. Like everyone since this thing started, they're making assumptions, predictions, and speculations.

---

None of them mentioned the 1918 flu? The really really famous one?

It's interesting that you've stopped the "this is nothing, no one has died of covid" line, and moved on to this denial. As much as we all wish it wasn't happening, it is.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Like most, I've read scores of experts' [not conspiracists] views on CV19. I may be wrong but no-one has based the 2nd wave scenario on any historical precedent. Like everyone since this thing started, they're making assumptions, predictions, and speculations.

---

No historical precedent of a second wave of a virus? There definitely is.

Unless someone can see into the future what else are you basing an hypothosis on other than assumptions and predictions? Scientific assumptions and predictions are usually pretty acurate too, seems a strange reason to doubt something. Do you have a scientific background? You seem very sure about this.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by lardy

None of them mentioned the 1918 flu? The really really famous one?

It's interesting that you've stopped the "this is nothing, no one has died of covid" line, and moved on to this denial. As much as we all wish it wasn't happening, it is.

---

And we always get more than 1 peak of flu every year too, usually multiple.

It would be a minor miracle not to get another peak without a virus or very well adheared too social rules for restricting the virus.

A second peak seems almost obvious without numerous restrictions. I'd like to know why people think it's not possible. Especially when some countries have already had a 2nd peak.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by lardy

None of them mentioned the 1918 flu? The really really famous one?

It's interesting that you've stopped the "this is nothing, no one has died of covid" line, and moved on to this denial. As much as we all wish it wasn't happening, it is.

---

102 years ago though, Christ they didn’t even have paracetamol back then. We keep hearing it’s nothing like flu anyway, pandemic flu would apparently be far worse.
It’s a shame we can’t rely on any info out of China as they are a few months ahead of Europe, they would happily lose 5 million people and deny it ever happened, and the WHO sound like a shambles for praising the way they handled the outbreak initially.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by goats

102 years ago though, Christ they didn’t even have paracetamol back then. We keep hearing it’s nothing like flu anyway, pandemic flu would apparently be far worse.
It’s a shame we can’t rely on any info out of China as they are a few months ahead of Europe, they would happily lose 5 million people and deny it ever happened, and the WHO sound like a shambles for praising the way they handled the outbreak initially.

---

It's a virus like flu but the symptoms aren't like flu.

We can rely on the info coming out of Korea and Germany who have both seen increased R numbers since relaxing lockdowns. This is expected even for us, it just needs to be carefully managed so it doesn't get too high.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by goats

Been trying to scare people with this for ages now, first it was people in London parks, then bank holidays, then VE Day, where is the second wave? :sherlock: oh that’s right it’s coming in October now

---

Funnily enough though the infection rate hasn’t reduced significantly?

I wonder why?

Still everyone crammed onto beaches yesterday in England will rectify the current ‘R’ rates.

Tally ho.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jordi Culé

Funnily enough though the infection rate hasn’t reduced significantly?

I wonder why?

Still everyone crammed onto beaches yesterday in England will rectify the current ‘R’ rates.

Tally ho.

---

But far more people are being tested which means they are capturing more information than before. So if the rate is not rising that's a good thing.

From my experience it’s the old ****ers who will transmit a 2nd wave. Had to tell one up m&s earlier.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by xsnaggle

But far more people are being tested which means they are capturing more information than before. So if the rate is not rising that's a good thing.

---

Do you think it’ll be a good thing if the rate increases next week?

It’s currently between 0.7 to 1. More than 1 and it is suggested by scientists we could have another significant surge.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jordi Culé

Do you think it’ll be a good thing if the rate increases next week?

It’s currently between 0.7 to 1. More than 1 and it is suggested by scientists we could have another significant surge.

---

Of course it won't be a good thing. I can't imagine why you even bother to ask the question.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by xsnaggle

Of course it won't be a good thing. I can't imagine why you even bother to ask the question.

---

Look handsome you seem to have a habit on jumping on other people’s points without much thought what has been said prior to your Size 10 feet landing with a thump. My point was to someone asking where the second wave is and I was insinuating that it could well happen in the next few weeks.

I was being sarcastic. Yes it is the lowest form of wit but I thought it would suit you fine:biggrin:

Please accept my apologies.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jordi Culé

Look handsome you seem to have a habit on jumping on other people’s points without much thought what has been said prior to your Size 10 feet landing with a thump. My point was to someone asking where the second wave is and I was insinuating that it could well happen in the next few weeks.

I was being sarcastic. Yes it is the lowest form of wit but I thought it would suit you fine:biggrin:

Please accept my apologies.

---

Your question appeared to be in direct response to me saying if they were testing more and the number of infections wasn't rising that was a good thing. so when you asked the question I responded to it.. I know what had been said previously.

It seems fairly common sense to assume that as lockdown is eased that cases will go up but the hope is that the tracing and control will keep it in check.
By the way, size 9 and don't patronise me it is a waste of time and it does you no credit. Have a nice evening.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by xsnaggle

Your question appeared to be in direct response to me saying if they were testing more and the number of infections wasn't rising that was a good thing. so when you asked the question I responded to it.. I know what had been said previously.

It seems fairly common sense to assume that as lockdown is eased that cases will go up but the hope is that the tracing and control will keep it in check.
By the way, size 9 and don't patronise me it is a waste of time and it does you no credit. Have a nice evening.

---

Are you having a hissy fit?

Chill out handsome, I didn’t think you’d bite at that.

My sincere apologies.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jordi Culé

Are you having a hissy fit?

Chill out handsome, I didn’t think you’d bite at that.

My sincere apologies.

---

People always think I am because I reply, but as I have said so often, this is a fecking football website, nothing anyone says will have any effect on this or my life. I really don't give a toss about what people think about this at all. I find a lot of the righteous indignation amusing. (I'll probably get pulled for that remark now lol)

If this 2nd wave does appear, we should be prepared with more ICU beds, more PPE and hopefully better drugs to treat it at the start ( with trace and testing, we should be able to identify people with it earlier )

watching people around here, life is starting to get back to normally quickly, wickes had a line around the carpark the 3 times i drove past it today, every customer i did today had been to the garden centre in the last week

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by blue matt

If this 2nd wave does appear, we should be prepared with more ICU beds, more PPE and hopefully better drugs to treat it at the start ( with trace and testing, we should be able to identify people with it earlier )

watching people around here, life is starting to get back to normally quickly, wickes had a line around the carpark the 3 times i drove past it today, every customer i did today had been to the garden centre in the last week

---

How do you keep your customers if you keep "doing" them? :hehe:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by xsnaggle

How do you keep your customers if you keep "doing" them? :hehe:

---

I am that good :thumbup:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by blue matt

I am that good :thumbup:

---

:hehe:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by xsnaggle

People always think I am because I reply, but as I have said so often, this is a fecking football website, nothing anyone says will have any effect on this or my life. I really don't give a toss about what people think about this at all. I find a lot of the righteous indignation amusing. (I'll probably get pulled for that remark now lol)

---

*Thumbs up*

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by xsnaggle

this is a fecking football website

---

I thought this was the Civil Service MB :hehe: