More stats - does missing out on automatic promotion affect your playoff chances?

I think it's safe to suggest that us City fans are happier at the potential prospect, if we can get there, of a playoff tie against West Brom, than the thought of playing Brentford.

Having a free few minutes, I thought I'd look at how teams that have missed out on automatic promotion have fared in the end of season lottery.

Criteria - a team has to have had more than a week in the top 2 in the last few weeks of the season and been in a decent position to challenge for automatic promotion since February. I've not been extremely specific, I was just after an overview.

I found 19 teams that had missed out on automatic promotion to the top flight since the birth of the playoffs in 1987, so roughly half of all seasons has seen a side slip up at the death.

Of those 19, 10 lost in the playoff semis, 3 lost in a playoff final while the remaining 6 put the disappointment behind them to win the playoffs.

Leeds (last season) and Wolves (in 2002) are the biggest examples of teams being clear and looking certs for automatic promotion all season. Both lost in the semis. In 2011 we were in the top 2 more than we were out of it, yet missed out and lost in the semis. Bristol City were top or second for most of the 2007/08 season but missed out on the last day and ended up losing a playoff final.

Teams that have gone on to win the playoffs after missing out on the playoffs tended to be well clear and part of a 3-horse race that went on for some time.

Ipswich are the side that have missed out on automatic promotion the most (3 times). They at least won one of those playoff campaigns.

One of the more bizarre seasons was the 1987/88 campaign, where 3 points separated the top 5 with 4 games to go. All those sides had spells in the top 2 over the final month or so. Millwall won the title, Villa finished 2nd on goals scored where 1 point separated 2nd from 5th!

Love your stats Eric. May I ask where your user name came from?

unfortunately it is too small a sample to read anything into it

great read , I do admire your knowledge and in depth investigations and summary, your like the TLG who also has knack along with TOBW.

I do agree that WBA will be the better option a lot if teams who fall into that third slot do suffer , and the 6th team can at times have more momentum, how the hell we got here I don't know ,its like the mysterious Warnock promotion year all over again accept its via the play off ,what an added bonus to a truly awful year with the Covid deaths and the dreadful death of Whitts

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Originally Posted by Rjk

unfortunately it is too small a sample to read anything into it

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All stats like this are never conclusive proof that something will definitely happen, or even to its likelihood. While I agree about the small sample, there's a trend to suggest the teams that miss out from the strongest positions are more likely to mess up in the playoffs. You're never likely to get a good pool size as teams missing out doesn't happen every season.

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Originally Posted by life on mars

great read , I do admire your knowledge and in depth investigations and summary, your like the TLG who also has knack along with TOBW.

I do agree that WBA will be the better option a lot if teams who fall into that third slot do suffer , and the 6th team can at times have more momentum, how the hell we got here I don't know ,its like the mysterious Warnock promotion year all over again accept its via the play off ,what an added bonus to a truly awful year with the Covid deaths and the dreadful death of Whitts

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6 / 19 teams that finished in third were promoted, that's 32%.

What would you expect it to be?

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Originally Posted by life on mars

great read , I do admire your knowledge and in depth investigations and summary, your like the TLG who also has knack along with TOBW.

I do agree that WBA will be the better option a lot if teams who fall into that third slot do suffer , and the 6th team can at times have more momentum, how the hell we got here I don't know ,its like the mysterious Warnock promotion year all over again accept its via the play off ,what an added bonus to a truly awful year with the Covid deaths and the dreadful death of Whitts

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Thanks for your comments.

Yes, it's been a very surreal season. For me, if we finished in the top 6 I'll be happy with that. I have no expectations on promotion. Any results beyond that are a bonus. Maybe Whitts is looking down on us?

When I look back, I totally expected us to beat Blackpool. I felt that we had the talent for automatic promotion the time we lost feebly to Reading. Both playoff campaigns were disappointing and frustrating. I never had that feeling when West Ham stuffed us. Given everything that season, we were amazed to be in the top 6.

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

All stats like this are never conclusive proof that something will definitely happen, or even to its likelihood. While I agree about the small sample, there's a trend to suggest the teams that miss out from the strongest positions are more likely to mess up in the playoffs. You're never likely to get a good pool size as teams missing out doesn't happen every season.

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Flip a coin 10 times and there's a good chance you won't get 10 heads and 10 tails.
sometimes you'll even get 8 heads and 2 tails but it doesn't mean the coin is defective, just you haven't flipped enough.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

6 / 19 teams that finished in third were promoted, that's 32%.

What would you expect it to be?

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3 of them finished in 4th, but that's not particularly important.

44% of teams that finished in 3rd overall (or the highest position) have won the playoffs to the top flight. Again, I appreciate the small sample, but there it helps the suggestion that teams that miss out tend not to do quite as well.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

Flip a coin 10 times and there's a good chance you won't get 10 heads and 10 tails.
sometimes you'll even get 8 heads and 2 tails but it doesn't mean the coin is defective, just you haven't flipped enough.

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Of course.

What would you accept as a fair pool size?

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Originally Posted by valleys caveman

Love your stats Eric. May I ask where your user name came from?

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Eric the Half a Bee is a Monty Python song.

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Originally Posted by RichardM

Eric the Half a Bee is a Monty Python song.

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Thanks for the reply RichardM. May I ask where your user name came from?

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Originally Posted by valleys caveman

Thanks for the reply RichardM. May I ask where your user name came from?

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You may.

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Originally Posted by RichardM

You may.

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:hehe:

Where did you get your user name from RichardM?

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Originally Posted by valleys caveman

:hehe:

Where did you get your user name from RichardM?

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I made it up. It's my first name and the initial letter of my surname.

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Originally Posted by RichardM

Eric the Half a Bee is a Monty Python song.

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I remember changing it one night. Couldn't think of anything, but I was playing the Monty Python Sings album and that came on.

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Originally Posted by RichardM

I made it up. It's my first name and the initial letter of my surname.

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I'm going to go with Morgan?

If WBA do manage to muff it up then they will be gutted. I don’t think it will effect those players completely though. They are a yo-yo team and won’t have the pressures from the fans of going up. I also think crowds not being there will help the stronger teams.

Let’s be honest, Fulham, WBA and Brentford are all a cut above us. First two have way more depth than us. On our day we can beat any of them but it’s unlikely over 3 games. I don’t think Forest are any better than us.

We just got to make sure we get there as all under us have a good chance of taking 6th.

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Originally Posted by RichardM

I made it up. It's my first name and the initial letter of my surname.

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Very subtle. i love it!! :hehe:

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Of course.

What would you accept as a fair pool size?

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About 30 metres

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Originally Posted by BLUETIT

About 30 metres

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Quite a deep post for this time in the morning.

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Quite a deep post for this time in the morning.

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Every Saturday, 6am, Tony Blackburn :music: Sounds of the 60’s :music:

Makes me and the Mrs teenagers for 2 hours.

Sets the weekend up :thumbup:

I’m happy to take sixth as long as the JBs are seventh or eighth.

Remember when play offs started it was 3 from (championship old div 2) and 1 from (prem old div 1).

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Quite a deep post for this time in the morning.

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It's one of those sink or swim comments

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Originally Posted by RichardM

I made it up. It's my first name and the initial letter of my surname.

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Richard Madeley is a City fan! Probably Judy too.

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Originally Posted by theclaw

Remember when play offs started it was 3 from (championship old div 2) and 1 from (prem old div 1).

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I remember the first year. I lived in London and was going to see the Beastie Boys in Brixton. Charlton, (Div 1) were at home to Leeds the same day in the first game of a two-legged final. Everyone was talking about it kicking off in Brixton. I can't remember anything happening though.