Who will win the US election?
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Who will win the US election?
No Kanye option?
Didn't he withdraw?
No score draw option?
Nobody thinks Trump will win then?
Compare with this earlier poll, there were a few confident then...
https://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.ph...mp-predictions
Not sure about the definition of landslide in US politics but that's my guess.
Here are the UK General Election polling from 2019 and the actual results if anyone wants to compare with mainstream polling organisations.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...neral_election
I see a civil war occurring
I'd love it to be a Biden landslide, but I think the gap's going to close in the next fortnight - I almost went for a narrow Trump victort because I have this dread that he could still win, but the polls couldn't be that wrong could they?
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...mp-will-win-an
Perhaps we can add Pat's vote and see how many on this Board share his prophecy if impending global doom soon after his second term has completed.
Trump's nominee is moving onto the Supreme Court and therefore Trump and hard-right America has won even if they lose.
I wonder what Republican's actually think? In one way their party became one family who didn't believe in traditional Republican viewpoints and in another they employed a bully and a liar to stamp over traditional convention so they can challenge abortion rights etc.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-12-point-poll
That's from February 2013 :facepalm:
Do you know what "run up to the election" means? I can give you a hint... it's not 27 months beforehand.
In the 3 weeks in the run up to the 2015 election there was a poll spread of +6 Conservative to +3 Labour. Most polls had the Conservatives in the lead. The stone came out on 3 May, 4 days before the election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...neral_election
Don't let fact get in the way of an argument though!
Let's just call it as it is... LoM is thick. Not a bit thick. Thick. He's constantly wrong and when it's pointed out he either ignores it, waits for someone else to reply so he can hang onto their coat tails and agree with their post or he simply responds with something irrelevant to your post.
I'm glad he said that he won't be "bullied off here like RB" (who wasn't bullied in the slightest... although he was an annoying c**t who was obsessed with calling everyone an anti-Semite without reason, yet had a lot of problems with black people and foreigners for some reason) as I'd miss feeling smarter than at least one person on the politics board (as Gluey has disappeared too by the looks of it).
I think LoM has his views, I struggle with many of them because I think that they are ill thought out and led by others. I think he would be better advised to think more frequently and post less often. That said, he seems to read more than me so I struggle calling out anyone who is still being stimulated by learning and knowledge.
Prediction.
Biden wins.
Trump barricades himself in the White House, surrounded by ‘patriot’ and white power militias whilst tweeting incessantly “Fix!” and “Fake News!”
He nukes a swing state like Pennsylvania or Michigan in retaliation for voting Biden which has now been passed as Treason by Trumps Supreme Court.
The White House siege is ended as Russian creditors turn up with bailiffs to collect $400 million.
Trump succumbs to novichok poisoning.
I’m only slightly taking the piss there. I think my first two points are certainties.
If you study the overall period from 2010 to 2015 you can clearly see Labour in the lead (see the first graph and red line ) its only at the final run in the polls where they close.
I won't dip towards your rudeness by calling people thick as I belive folk deserve respect whatever their views , I know your a tough keyboard warrior though so respect for that .
I maybe thick , but I have better qualities than your childlike name calling .
TOBW said he didn't remember Labour having a double-digit lead in the run up to the election and you provided stats from 2 years before the election... He's right and you're flapping around trying to prove that the polls were close but Labour had a lead, which is what we already knew.
A double-digit lead for Labour in the run up to the election is what you should be trying to prove if you want to disagree with TOBW. Everything you've said so far just confirms his point and makes you look like you can't grasp the reality of what's being discussed (this happens a lot in your posts).
As for "I maybe thick , but I have better qualities than your childlike name calling"... If those qualities are being a racist, misogynistic, defender of child abusers because young women are "probably asking for it" then I'm going to have to disagree with you about your "better qualities".
Being thick is probably your greatest quality from what I can gather. Also, I didn't call you thick because of your "views" - you'd understand that if you were a bit brighter :thumbup:
Seems like PA might go trump's way, and TX might go Bidens.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...iden-trump-win
This might help some of you, whatever side of the fence you're sitting?
Apparently it is looking like a very high turnout
this historically benefits democrats as older, richer, white voters are already very likely to vote.
However, in some key states - PA and FL especially it is thought that this could benefit Trump.
Polls will get a lot closer as they come under more scrutiny, the biggest problem if Biden doesn't get a landslide is the final postal vote tally up . I bet both sides have their legal teams ready to battle , one can only prey for a Biden landslide to avoid this becoming a drawn out and nasty moment .
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...p/?cid=abcnews
PA looks very important this time round.
538 has Trump down to an 11% chance of winning now, and a lot will come down to Pennsylvania
Could be drawn out for weeks , seem to remember Al Gore arguing for a Florida recount , 36 days later the supreme Court decided against a recount to settle in George of the Bush favour , like Trump, he lost the popular vote.
All Trump an wish for us to just contest it , Biden needs a landslide to take away the doubt .
And we know who now runs the supreme court
As Pennsylvania is so tight I'm hoping the current riots in Philadelphia don't help the Trump campaign. On the other hand another instance of trigger happy cops could boost the black vote, so it's on a bit of a knife edge.
Another scenario with Biden winning Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin (all very possible) might mean the Pennsylvania result won't make any difference.
If Splott goes to Trump its all over