My predictions for the new season

I have been thinking hard for a few days and reckon that nobody whose contract is ending will be offered an extension, or for the few that are then it'll be on a drastically reduced basis. Morrison, Moore, Smithies, Ralls, Vaulks and Murphy will be gone and replaced with cheaper league 1/2 young players. I think everyone will be up for sale. We will have to become sustainable for the first time in ages, can't see Tan forking out big sums on a regular basis again. I'm quite looking forward to seeing McCarthy build his own team

I don't think we will sell all of those, but perhaps 2

I reckon 1. Moore.

Smithies is on too high wages. I think we will hang on to Morrison.

Nobody will come in for Vaulks and Murphy.

Im sure if we made Ralls available Warnock would have him for starters.

lol

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Originally Posted by Hilts

I reckon 1. Moore.

Smithies is on too high wages. I think we will hang on to Morrison.

Nobody will come in for Vaulks and Murphy.

Im sure if we made Ralls available Warnock would have him for starters.

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I genuinely think we'll have a radically different squad next year, we can't keep spunking millions on players that turn out to be crap and then need their contracts paying up. It'll be full of young enthusiastic kids, who may take time to settle in.Look how well Sang,Colwill and Ng have done so far.

I have a feeling we are about to enter a period of austerity and that everyone on decent money will be gone. Including Morrison. I hope I'm wrong.

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Originally Posted by tomcat

I genuinely think we'll have a radically different squad next year, we can't keep spunking millions on players that turn out to be crap and then need their contracts paying up. It'll be full of young enthusiastic kids, who may take time to settle in.Look how well Sang,Colwill and Ng have done so far.

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If we have a team full of young enthusiastic kids including, and others on par, with Sang, Colwill and NG we’ll get thumped and relegated.

The vast majority of clubs have had their budgets shrunk drastically by a season without stadium revenue and, thinking about Andre Ayew, the only way to permanently get rid of a player is to: i) find a buyer who the club and player are happy with, ii) wait until their contract expires or iii) buy them out of their contract.

It's unlikely that McCarthy gets to build his own team until the year after when some of our higher earners have had their contracts come to an end.

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Originally Posted by EastbourneBlue

If we have a team full of young enthusiastic kids including, and others on par, with Sang, Colwill and NG we’ll get thumped and relegated.

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I wholeheartedly agree, but it's what I've heard is going to happen from more than one trusted source. Morrison and Moore have intrinsic value and will be easy to sell, we'll get cut-price younger versions of both. Watters has been identified as not of the required quality and will get bombed out too

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Originally Posted by tomcat

I genuinely think we'll have a radically different squad next year, we can't keep spunking millions on players that turn out to be crap and then need their contracts paying up. It'll be full of young enthusiastic kids, who may take time to settle in.Look how well Sang,Colwill and Ng have done so far.

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Morrison may go.

The others you need buyers. Isnt happening in my opinion.

I think the matchday squad come August will have around a dozen current squad members and 7 maybe 8 from this season in the 11.

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Originally Posted by Hilts

Morrison may go.

The others you need buyers. Isnt happening in my opinion.

I think the matchday squad come August will have around a dozen current squad members and 7 maybe 8 from this season in the 11.

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Moore will be bought. I think we'd accept relatively low fees to get some higher earners off the wagebill.

We all know nothing. Your general pessimism is unwarranted. Wouldn’t want to party with many of you.

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Originally Posted by Stanmore Bluebird

We all know nothing. Your general pessimism is unwarranted. Wouldn’t want to party with many of you.

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Do you see us keeping our best players and Tan funding a promotion charge?

My opinion is that there will be minimum movement both at City & elsewhere. Maybe a couple moved out and a couple of loans.

WBA & Fulham will go straight back up. Peterborough & the play-off winners straight back down.

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Do you see us keeping our best players and Tan funding a promotion charge?

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Who knows? As supporters we have to hope for the best scenario. With so little money being around and our players already vastly overpaid, I can’t see them taking a drop in wages to move to other Championship clubs. None of them are true Premiership standard so I don’t see them being poached by their teams.

As for Tan, we need his money just to keep the City afloat.

I don’t know how we will do next season; there is no particular need for pessimism in my opinion.

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Originally Posted by Des Parrot

My opinion is that there will be minimum movement both at City & elsewhere. Maybe a couple moved out and a couple of loans.

WBA & FULHAM will go straight back up. Peterborough & the play-off winners straight back down.

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What makes you come conclusion ?

The 7 loanees they got, have played the majority of their games and I can't see any of them staying, so that means they have to recruit a new squad to play in a league which will be a different type of football.
They were lucky to go up last season, another 10 minutes and we would have scored, in the second leg. They were on the rack.

And, Brentford never turned up for the final.

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Originally Posted by BLUETIT

What makes you come conclusion ?

The 7 loanees they got, have played the majority of their games and I can't see any of them staying, so that means they have to recruit a new squad to play in a league which will be a different type of football.
They were lucky to go up last season, another 10 minutes and we would have scored, in the second leg. They were on the rack.

And, Brentford never turned up for the final.

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Parachute payments?

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Originally Posted by The Hooded Claw

Parachute payments?

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yep, straight off the bat, before they've even sold a ticket they have £45 million more to play with than us.
their budget for the season is likely to be about 3 times what ours is.
the fact they had a lot of loanees means they have a high degree of flexibility now in how to spend it.

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Originally Posted by The Hooded Claw

Parachute payments?

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Originally Posted by Rjk

yep, straight off the bat, before they've even sold a ticket they have £45 million more to play with than us.
their budget for the season is likely to be about 3 times what ours is.
the fact they had a lot of loanees means they have a high degree of flexibility now in how to spend it.

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So the AGENTS can start robbing them blind, before a contract is printed.

The championship, is a strange olde league.

Who would have predicted Barnsley in the top 6

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Originally Posted by BLUETIT

So the AGENTS can start robbing them blind, before a contract is printed.

The championship, is a strange olde league.

Who would have predicted Barnsley in the top 6

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Dickie Bird & Michael Parkinson:hehe:

The way football teams are run these days puts Fulham at a massive advantage in the loan market. They can take their pick of players available from the massive PL rosters on loan all over London. Chelsea alone have over 30 players out on loan this season.

I would be more than a little surprised if Morrison is allowed to leave, mainly because he possesses the leadership qualities MM will heavily rely upon if we are going to be introducing more youngsters into the team.

Of the others mentioned, the only real loss would be Keiffer Moore. Based on his goals this season and his international standing I don't think a bid of under £10m would be accepted by the club, at least I hope not.

The Championship is an unpredictable league at the best of times but with Covid massively affecting the finances of all clubs, next season promises to be the most unpredictable ever.

Player recruitment for next season is key so let's all hope that MM is up to the challenge.

Transfer fees and wages will be depressed across all leagues - a good thing. We don't know yet what the new football economy will look like - but comparisons with previous seasons (even last summer under Covid) will be apples and pears. Income and player costs down, even if most other costs are unchanged.

There will be a lot more players available out of contract as clubs reduce bloated squad sizes. A buyers market with a bigger pool of available talent at a lower cost, and less likelihood of generating big fees from sales. Moore and Morrison (not Murphy) the most saleable - but even then the benchmarks from previous windows may not apply.

If Cardiff is in Covid trouble because of reduced revenues (with parachute payments last season and Tan's backing) how much worse will it be for two thirds of other Championship clubs? Relegated clubs with parachute payments may find it harder than normal to reduce their costs through player sales.

We have got the most talented batch of youth players in a decade coming through the academy - and it seems a willingness to bring them into the first team.

Overall I don't see why we should be pessimistic about the summer and next season. I will be disappointed if Moore is sold (don't think Morrison will go and doubt there will be takers for Murphy willing to pay a significant fee), but with youth players coming through, out of contract and loan players leaving, and new loans and free transfers joining, I expect us to be in the play off fight again.

One thing is sure, the Mick McCarthy honeymoon is now over and he can now reshape the team the way he wants. Judge him then.

A few on here think Bennett will be offered a new deal but I'm not so certain.

Sentiment aside, in the cold light of day he is a full back who has a very serious injury.
I know many feel we owe him something but if he was at another club and negotiating with us then got that serious an injury we would simply move on.

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Originally Posted by jon1959

Transfer fees and wages will be depressed across all leagues - a good thing. We don't know yet what the new football economy will look like - but comparisons with previous seasons (even last summer under Covid) will be apples and pears. Income and player costs down, even if most other costs are unchanged.

There will be a lot more players available out of contract as clubs reduce bloated squad sizes. A buyers market with a bigger pool of available talent at a lower cost, and less likelihood of generating big fees from sales. Moore and Morrison (not Murphy) the most saleable - but even then the benchmarks from previous windows may not apply.

If Cardiff is in Covid trouble because of reduced revenues (with parachute payments last season and Tan's backing) how much worse will it be for two thirds of other Championship clubs? Relegated clubs with parachute payments may find it harder than normal to reduce their costs through player sales.

We have got the most talented batch of youth players in a decade coming through the academy - and it seems a willingness to bring them into the first team.

Overall I don't see why we should be pessimistic about the summer and next season. I will be disappointed if Moore is sold (don't think Morrison will go and doubt there will be takers for Murphy willing to pay a significant fee), but with youth players coming through, out of contract and loan players leaving, and new loans and free transfers joining, I expect us to be in the play off fight again.

One thing is sure, the Mick McCarthy honeymoon is now over and he can now reshape the team the way he wants. Judge him then.

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Agree completely.

And of course the mercurial tomlin will be fit again and in amongst it (Allegedly :hehe:)

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Originally Posted by jon1959

Transfer fees and wages will be depressed across all leagues - a good thing. We don't know yet what the new football economy will look like - but comparisons with previous seasons (even last summer under Covid) will be apples and pears. Income and player costs down, even if most other costs are unchanged.

There will be a lot more players available out of contract as clubs reduce bloated squad sizes. A buyers market with a bigger pool of available talent at a lower cost, and less likelihood of generating big fees from sales. Moore and Morrison (not Murphy) the most saleable - but even then the benchmarks from previous windows may not apply.

If Cardiff is in Covid trouble because of reduced revenues (with parachute payments last season and Tan's backing) how much worse will it be for two thirds of other Championship clubs? Relegated clubs with parachute payments may find it harder than normal to reduce their costs through player sales.

We have got the most talented batch of youth players in a decade coming through the academy - and it seems a willingness to bring them into the first team.

Overall I don't see why we should be pessimistic about the summer and next season. I will be disappointed if Moore is sold (don't think Morrison will go and doubt there will be takers for Murphy willing to pay a significant fee), but with youth players coming through, out of contract and loan players leaving, and new loans and free transfers joining, I expect us to be in the play off fight again.

One thing is sure, the Mick McCarthy honeymoon is now over and he can now reshape the team the way he wants. Judge him then.

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No chance .
We will continue to be dire .
Crowds will refuse to come back into the stadium to watch hoofball.

Firstly, surely the majority of the parachute payments are paid towards the end of each subsequent season after relegation. That means that the second yearly payment that we are due (over £30m) is around now and this money will be available to carry us through into next season. Therefore our next years budget will not be as dire as people are predicting. Secondly, why would anyone in their right mind be as pessimistic as the OP. From what has been said there is no indication that players like Moore or Morrison want to or will be sold. There is also no indication that Tan is going to stop funding the club or transfers altogether either. Budgets will be lower all around the leagues and the fact that we have some good young players coming through will obviously help. Players will leave but only if deemed surplus to requirements and if Moore is sold then I am confident that the money will be used to bring in replacements. PS. The negativity and pessimism on this board is truly staggering at times.

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Originally Posted by dml1954

Firstly, surely the majority of the parachute payments are paid towards the end of each subsequent season after relegation. That means that the second yearly payment that we are due (over £30m) is around now and this money will be available to carry us through into next season. Therefore our next years budget will not be as dire as people are predicting. Secondly, why would anyone in their right mind be as pessimistic as the OP. From what has been said there is no indication that players like Moore or Morrison want to or will be sold. There is also no indication that Tan is going to stop funding the club or transfers altogether either. Budgets will be lower all around the leagues and the fact that we have some good young players coming through will obviously help. Players will leave but only if deemed surplus to requirements and if Moore is sold then I am confident that the money will be used to bring in replacements. PS. The negativity and pessimism on this board is truly staggering at times.

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Why would you assume that the parachute payments are paid at the end of the year?
I've never seen anything to suggest that was the case.
In any case we will receive about 35 million less next season than we will this season, so we will need to budget accordingly.

If we got rid of those players suggested by the OP, then we'd be relegated. If we had all the kids playing we'd get hammered every week.

But we will have Tomlin, and in he's not injured, and if he's fit(!), and if he plays superbly in every game(!), someone might buy him next January. Oh look....a Flying Pig.

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Originally Posted by dml1954

Firstly, surely the majority of the parachute payments are paid towards the end of each subsequent season after relegation. That means that the second yearly payment that we are due (over £30m) is around now and this money will be available to carry us through into next season. Therefore our next years budget will not be as dire as people are predicting. Secondly, why would anyone in their right mind be as pessimistic as the OP. From what has been said there is no indication that players like Moore or Morrison want to or will be sold. There is also no indication that Tan is going to stop funding the club or transfers altogether either. Budgets will be lower all around the leagues and the fact that we have some good young players coming through will obviously help. Players will leave but only if deemed surplus to requirements and if Moore is sold then I am confident that the money will be used to bring in replacements. PS. The negativity and pessimism on this board is truly staggering at times.

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Feel free to bookmark my comments, Tan paid a whack of money into the club last month and doesn't want to continue to bankroll City. Morrison is on a very high wage and we could get a fee for a player who's value will lessen in the next few years due to his age. Nelson was a good buy, no reason why we couldn't get a decent replacement in cheaply. Moore would be a big loss but I wouldn't want to stand in his way if he fancied playing at a higher level on a higher wage.

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Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock

No chance .
We will continue to be dire .
Crowds will refuse to come back into the stadium to watch hoofball.

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Fair point. The team's shit. The club's shit. The manager's shit. Life's shit.

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Originally Posted by jon1959

Fair point. The team's shit. The club's shit. The manager's shit. Life's shit.

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I'll be there next year in person , watching the shite ,bring it forth .

Oh and I think we will grab a play off spot

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Originally Posted by tomcat

Feel free to bookmark my comments, Tan paid a whack of money into the club last month and doesn't want to continue to bankroll City. Morrison is on a very high wage and we could get a fee for a player who's value will lessen in the next few years due to his age. Nelson was a good buy, no reason why we couldn't get a decent replacement in cheaply. Moore would be a big loss but I wouldn't want to stand in his way if he fancied playing at a higher level on a higher wage.

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So basically, sell most of the first team, put all the youngsters in and accept the inevitable fate of ending up in League One (or two after). Excellent business sense, ending up with a club worth bog all instead of the £150m plus he has put in ! Tan has been putting a ‘whack of money’ in ever since he took over and there is absolutely no evidence that he is not going to continue to back the club now. He has recently taken on an experienced manager on a presumably high salary and stated his desire to get back into the Premier League sooner rather than later.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

Why would you assume that the parachute payments are paid at the end of the year?
I've never seen anything to suggest that was the case.
In any case we will receive about 35 million less next season than we will this season, so we will need to budget accordingly.

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At the end of the season we were relegated from the Premier League, we would still have been in receipt of that seasons TV and rights money which was not finally calculated until the League finished and our position was known. The parachute payments were for the following two seasons, the second one of which has just ended. Therefore it is entirely likely that the parachute payments are made at the end of each year. Also the parachute payments are 55% for the first year and 45% for the second, so actually drop by about £6m, not £35m. TV money to all clubs is mainly paid out at the season end, with possibly interim payments around the New Year.

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Originally Posted by dml1954

At the end of the season we were relegated from the Premier League, we would still have been in receipt of that seasons TV and rights money which was not finally calculated until the League finished and our position was known. The parachute payments were for the following two seasons, the second one of which has just ended. Therefore it is entirely likely that the parachute payments are made at the end of each year. Also the parachute payments are 55% for the first year and 45% for the second, so actually drop by about £6m, not £35m. TV money to all clubs is mainly paid out at the season end, with possibly interim payments around the New Year.

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Broadcasting rights money to EPL clubs is not held back until the end of the season when the final apportionment (based on live TV coverage decisions) is known - is it?

I thought it was paid in instalments? With both parachute and solidarity payments to EFL clubs paid in a similar way. The intention is to cushion the financial impact of relegation and that hits from the start of the season, not the end.

In May last year the EPL clubs were in the middle of a massive argument with Sky and BT about refunding a % of the TV money already paid out by the broadcasters - and my impression was that they didn't send the EPL/clubs a cheque at the end of the season and then ask for some of it back a week later.

Football was suspended in early March 2020, and by then the EPL clubs already had a major part of the broadcasting money! Surely the same applies to knock-on payments further down the football pyramid?

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Originally Posted by dml1954

At the end of the season we were relegated from the Premier League, we would still have been in receipt of that seasons TV and rights money which was not finally calculated until the League finished and our position was known. The parachute payments were for the following two seasons, the second one of which has just ended. Therefore it is entirely likely that the parachute payments are made at the end of each year. Also the parachute payments are 55% for the first year and 45% for the second, so actually drop by about £6m, not £35m. TV money to all clubs is mainly paid out at the season end, with possibly interim payments around the New Year.

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Pretty sure payments are staggered throughout the season, this would mean that you're correct in that there may be some left to pay for this year. However, this would no doubt be catered for in this years budget so will have no bearing on next year when the income from the Premier League will drop from £35m to the £4.5m solidarity payment.

Given our wage bill has been reported as around £22m it's likely that it's going to need more than just losing our out of contract players to keep us going. Does anyone know the max amount an owner is allowed to put into a club per year under FFP?

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Originally Posted by Punxsutawney Phil

Pretty sure payments are staggered throughout the season, this would mean that you're correct in that there may be some left to pay for this year. However, this would no doubt be catered for in this years budget so will have no bearing on next year when the income from the Premier League will drop from £35m to the £4.5m solidarity payment.

Given our wage bill has been reported as around £22m it's likely that it's going to need more than just losing our out of contract players to keep us going. Does anyone know the max amount an owner is allowed to put into a club per year under FFP?

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isn't it 80million over a 3 year period

Just lifted the following from Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premie...0the%20Premier

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Parachute payments are unique to the English game and currently see clubs relegated from the Premier League receive a percentage of the equally shared element of broadcasting rights each Premier League club receives. This percentage drops progressively over a three year period – 55% in the first year, 45% in year two and, if the club was in the Premier League for more than one season before relegation, 20% in the third year.

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Same article says we'd have had £41.6m last year, £34.9 this so £80m is close but we get nothing next year as we were only in the league for season.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

isn't it 80million over a 3 year period

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Just realised you probably mean how much can be invested! :facepalm:

trump will continue his election lies, boris johnson will lie his azz off and you lot will believe it ..again.
there will be no peace in the middle east.