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Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
Looking at the FIFA rankings prior to the tournament, these were the FIFA rankings of all sides in Euro 2020, where the rankings given are for UEFA countries only.
1 Belgium
2 France
3 England
4 Portugal
5 Spain
6 Italy
7 Denmark
8 Germany
9 Switzerland
10 Croatia
11 Netherlands
12 Wales
13 Sweden
14 Poland
15 Austria
16 Ukraine
18 Turkey
19 Slovakia
20 Hungary
21 Russia
22 Czech Republic
25 Scotland
30 Finland
32 North Macedonia
It's perhaps not too much of a surprise that 21 of the top 24 European countries made the championship. Serbia (17th), Norway and Romania (23rd and 24th) missed out.
You'd expect most of the top 16 UEFA countries to make the last 16 and this is what has very nearly happened. The only top 16 country to miss out was Poland, with only the Czech Republic making the last 16 as a country outside the top 16 (though they're heading in that direction).
2nd place in our group was a decent achievement given that we were ranked 3rd in the group from our FIFA rankings. Turkey were also the highest non top 16 UEFA side in the rankings. However, 12th in the rankings and 12 top 2 sides from 6 groups suggest second wasn't beyond us. Had we finished 3rd, it would have been the joint 2nd best 3rd place finish, so in terms of rankings, we achieved roughly what we might have expected due to the rankings.
One way of looking at how tough each group was would be to consider the average UEFA ranking of the 4 countries in each. This is how they compare:
F - 8.5
A - 11.25
E - 12.75
B - 14.75
D - 15
C - 18.5
To finish 2nd in the second toughest group (according to the rankings) is a greater achievement.
In the last 16, the higher ranked side has won 3 of the 4 games so far. The only exception is the Kingdom of the Netherlands, who are ranked 11th in UEFA. Defeat to Denmark was not a surprise based on the rankings. England vs Germany is the only last 16 tie left to feature two top 8 sides, while Sweden vs Ukraine is the only one left not to feature any top 8 sides.
In other words, reaching the last 16 should have been the minimum requirement - anything more would have been a bonus. We managed that.
Of course this doesn't take into account relative sizes of countries, where we've massively over achieved in recent years. I think our achievement is to have been one of the better footballing countries in Europe for a few years now and hopefully the future continues to be bright for a few more years yet.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
https://www.eloratings.net/
I find the elo ratings a bit better than the FIFA rankings - although there isn't a huge amount of difference at the moment
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
Yes. We’re that high in the rankings because we’re greater than the sum of our parts.
When you got someone who can’t get in Luton’s squad, not looking out of place on the international stage it really shows you that we could be doing hell of a lot worse.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Rjk
https://www.eloratings.net/
I find the elo ratings a bit better than the FIFA rankings - although there isn't a huge amount of difference at the moment
All rankings have a flaw to them somewhere along the line.
While not football, one such example is Jonny Clayton in darts. Premier League champion, Masters champion, probably 2nd best player in the world this year. Not in the top 16 as the two tournament wins were non-ranking!
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
In another thread I said the individual result that should be focused on is the Switzerland one because of the FIFA rankings and because they're such an experienced and decent tournament side - their record is now qualifying for 8 of past 9 tournaments and getting to knock-out stages in 5 of those - so can see where you're coming from.
On paper somewhat expecting to qualifying as at least one of the third best sides does show how well we've done over last 10 years or so.
However, I've also previously highlighted the issues which I feel sets our tournament apart from most (CEO stepping down, manager stepping away 3 months before tournament starts, filling an empty seat in backroom staff with someone not in work since 2019, amount of travel to what felt like a series of away grounds) which you've not mentioned. I don't think we could have expected qualification despite positive FIFA rankings, getting to the knock-outs was important to keep the momentum going and finishing second in the group was a fine achievement. I wish we hadn't let our frustrations show as much in last game but this side, again, has been through a lot so I expect them to learn from it but I'll forgive and forget it quickly.
Regarding next steps, I think this tweet says it all:
Quote:
Consolidating future qualifications, transitioning to next generation of players, maintaining the allure of playing for Wales over other potential nations AND, crucially, getting the women’s team to a major tournament all make up a massive task. But doable!
https://twitter.com/tomandersonbks/s...37324194533379
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
Why don’t you put population figures against each country and see where we should “rank” in those terms?
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
I think to find ourselves in these rankings are great.
Scotland and Ireland haven’t been as far as us and they have a larger pool of players to choose from.
We’ve done well and moved on from the Alun Evans days!
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
Yes of course it bloody is. Turkey looked strong heading into the tournament, the Swiss as pointed out are tournament regulars and Italy are Italy. Getting third would have been an achievement, but 2nd place was well beyond what I expected.
We have to remember outside of Bale and Ramsey our squad just isnt very good. Having a Luton backup starting for us whilst teams like Switzerland have an Arsenal and Atalanta player starting in midfield just highlights how far we are away from a lot of sides irrespective of what the rankings say.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
This seems a chicken and egg situation.
You can point out that we're doing just about what we should according to the rankings - well, let's step back and appreciate how well we are doing in the rankings. We are not historically a top ranked European team. We don't even have a professional league at home.
The rankings reflect consistently good results over a period of time, and there we are sitting in the middle. We're above teams who have a strong tournament record in recent years (Turkey, Sweden, Czechs).
Yes, it's an achievement, all of it.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
WJ99mobile
Yes. We’re that high in the rankings because we’re greater than the sum of our parts.
When you got someone who can’t get in Luton’s squad, not looking out of place on the international stage it really shows you that we could be doing hell of a lot worse.
Not looking out place? He was horribly exposed during this tournament for me.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Toadstool
Why don’t you put population figures against each country and see where we should “rank” in those terms?
I get that population plays a massive part but Belgium are ranked number one with only 11 million population.
Maybe we need to focus on other things like better infrastructure and better coaching, instead of just using "little old Wales" as an excuse.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
You look at the rankings for the world and to get to the last 16 in a European championship would be about par on paper.
It's never as easy as that and never will be for us.
I wasn't surprised we got through the group, I was 50/50 pre tournament.
I wouldn't say getting through the group is an achievement but more the overall and continued progress of Welsh international football where I'm no longer surprised by our successes and was actually more surprised and disappointed by the 4 nil capitulation.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
UNDERHILL1927
I get that population plays a massive part but Belgium are ranked number one with only 11 million population.
Maybe we need to focus on other things like better infrastructure and better coaching, instead of just using "little old Wales" as an excuse.
I want to know what Croatia do with only 4 million. I guess if there is a focus on a particular sport then anything is possible.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
On that basis we reached where should have, last 16.
We don’t have a proper League for players to achieve International selection and that is a major hurdle, we are therefore restricted to a small number to choose from via the English pyramid system, ergo we really are punching above our weight.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Trigger
I want to know what Croatia do with only 4 million. I guess if there is a focus on a particular sport then anything is possible.
Yeah good point, we're battling with rugby all the way which doesn't help when it comes to budgets etc.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
UNDERHILL1927
I get that population plays a massive part but Belgium are ranked number one with only 11 million population.
Maybe we need to focus on other things like better infrastructure and better coaching, instead of just using "little old Wales" as an excuse.
Yes but you have to take into account that Belgium is very flat so they have more room for football pitches for people to practice on. :getscoat:
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
xsnaggle
Yes but you have to take into account that Belgium is very flat so they have more room for football pitches for people to practice on. :getscoat:
Mountain football World Cup winners 2045.....WALES!
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
xsnaggle
Yes but you have to take into account that Belgium is very flat so they have more room for football pitches for people to practice on. :getscoat:
Belgium must be the best national team in world football that uses English as their language of communication in training and on the pitch.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Trigger
You look at the rankings for the world and to get to the last 16 in a European championship would be about par on paper.
It's never as easy as that and never will be for us.
I wasn't surprised we got through the group, I was 50/50 pre tournament.
I wouldn't say getting through the group is an achievement but more the overall and continued progress of Welsh international football where I'm no longer surprised by our successes and was actually more surprised and disappointed by the 4 nil capitulation.
^^^this
the result I can live with, the manner in which we played was appalling.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Cleve van Leef
On that basis we reached where should have, last 16.
We don’t have a proper League for players to achieve International selection and that is a major hurdle, we are therefore restricted to a small number to choose from via the English pyramid system, ergo we really are punching above our weight.
We've been punching above our weight for years. 10 years ago we were ranked 114th. The Faeroes pipped us into Pot 4. We were 3 points above North Korea and 5 behind the Central African Republic. We were on the same rankins page as Thailand, Barbados and Malaysia. Kuwait were 13 places above us.
10 years on, one semi-final and one second round. People knocking our achievements have conveniently forgotten where we have come from. In 10 years time, we are more likely to be ranked closer to 100 than the top 10 because the FAW have a habit of botching progress. Enjoy it while it lasts is all I will say.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Allez Allez Allez
We've been punching above our weight for years. 10 years ago we were ranked 114th. The Faeroes pipped us into Pot 4. We were 3 points above North Korea and 5 behind the Central African Republic. We were on the same rankins page as Thailand, Barbados and Malaysia. Kuwait were 13 places above us.
10 years on, one semi-final and one second round. People knocking our achievements have conveniently forgotten where we have come from. In 10 years time, we are more likely to be ranked closer to 100 than the top 10 because the FAW have a habit of botching progress. Enjoy it while it lasts is all I will say.
I don't see anyone knocking our achievements and I think everyone is enjoying our current successes.
I tend to look at the here and now, hence the post. I think it is an achievement being the 12th best country in UEFA as things stand.
I struggle with the idea that, because we've not made major tournaments or been utterly shite, that it has a bearing on how things are currently, other than making us a bit more grounded in terms of expectation levels. This Euro campaign has been par for the course in terms of how we are ranked. I don't buy into any argument that we are punching above our weight, or how being behind Kuwait in the rankings over a decade ago means we shouldn't qualify for tournaments or better. We are where we are at this moment and we are there on merit, we're not just punching above our weight. I used to get fed up of hearing City fans after successive top half finishes in the Championship, an FA cup final and two failed playoff campaigns saying we were still punching above our weight because we had spent some time in the bottom two divisions.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
I don't see anyone knocking our achievements and I think everyone is enjoying our current successes.
I tend to look at the here and now, hence the post. I think it is an achievement being the 12th best country in UEFA as things stand.
I struggle with the idea that, because we've not made major tournaments or been utterly shite, that it has a bearing on how things are currently, other than making us a bit more grounded in terms of expectation levels. This Euro campaign has been par for the course in terms of how we are ranked. I don't buy into any argument that we are punching above our weight, or how being behind Kuwait in the rankings over a decade ago means we shouldn't qualify for tournaments or better. We are where we are at this moment and we are there on merit, we're not just punching above our weight. I used to get fed up of hearing City fans after successive top half finishes in the Championship, an FA cup final and two failed playoff campaigns saying we were still punching above our weight because we had spent some time in the bottom two divisions.
Of course we are punching above our weight. It would be ludicrous to suggest otherwise. We have the population of Birmingham.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Dave Blue
Of course we are punching above our weight. It would be ludicrous to suggest otherwise. We have the population of Birmingham.
And if you include West Brom, the same number of league clubs, albeit they have one in the Prem and two alongside us and Swansea.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
We were the outsiders of the 4 in the group….and the bookies are not often wrong…except in this case…although Switzerland and Italy were much better than us.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
G rangetown Blue
We were the outsiders of the 4 in the group
On what basis?
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
At this tournament we got a positive result against the two sides outside FIFA's top 10 and lost fairly comfortably to the two sides in FIFA's top 10. I'll repeat that worth holding onto Switzerland result seeing as they're meant to be as many as 4 places better than us - it really is our only result in which we defied the rankings - and a side like Switzerland or Denmark are going to be our competition to get to the World Cup.
I do think it's funny how perception of groups changes so dramatically after a tournament is over though. Many people had Turkey down as dark horses to get to later stages of 2020 based presumably on mixture of exciting youth and experienced players who had just won Ligue 1 and good results against France in build up(?) but they're now seen as one of the weakest sides.
I also think those looking too closely at the rankings are missing a good chunk of context. Not only what I said earlier about us specifically but also that so far only Sweden, France and Belgium have overcome the organisational advantage some teams have. Teams like Italy and Netherlands have found it more difficult as soon as they play away.
In hindsight it turned out that Turkey were as good a match-up as Russia in 2016 for us and our primary tactic attacked their primary weakness. We could have got a draw against Italy but they weren't going for it and Denmark exposed that we couldn't make sufficient in-game adjustments when things starting to go against us and we struggle to break teams down once we're losing - the two main reasons we beat Belgium were missing this time.
In some ways there is so much more to be said about this tournament and so much more can be learnt from it compared to 2016. I just don't think anyone is as interested :hehe:
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
On what basis?
UEFA seedings when drawing the groups.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
The longer this Swiss/French game goes on our result against the Swiss, no matter how it was gained, is looking more and more respectable.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
surge
UEFA seedings when drawing the groups.
That's interesting. I hadn't been aware of this so though thought it was worth looking up.
The seedings were based on how well teams did in qualifying. Wales were 19th best qualifiers. Wales and Sweden were the only countries seeded out of the top 16 but were ranked in UEFA's top 16 at the start of the tournament. This suggests we had a pretty good run since qualification for Euro 2020, culminating in being promoted to Nations League A.
Turkey, on the other hand, had been relegated to Nations League C since qualification and were ranked outside the top 16, despite being seeded 14th.
Another point to all of this, Turkey, Russia and Poland were all sides seeded in the top 16 but were ranked lower in the UEFA rankings than they were seeded. All failed to qualify. Germany and Ukraine were also seeded higher than their rankings at the start of the tournament and both struggled to get through. Wales, Sweden and Denmark (despite the understandable Finland defeat) were seeded lower than their rankings but got through.
I think my point is that seedings are probably less of a guide than the FIFA rankings of each team at the start of the tournament.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
That's interesting. I hadn't been aware of this so though thought it was worth looking up.
.....
I think my point is that seedings are probably less of a guide than the FIFA rankings of each team at the start of the tournament.
I'd agree with that. Looking at it now and it's clear that Turkey weren't the same side that had beaten France 2-0 and drawn 1-1 away from home in the qualification for Euros 2020 so their FIFA ranking more telling of their current position, especially as they only won one game in the whole of 2020.
I'd agree with Splott Parker's point that tonight's game will show our result against Switzerland in a different light. Like Russia coming out of 2016 and then out of 2018, our perception of opposition teams after tournaments does tend to change quite a bit.
If I'm allowed to add two more things: i) in time we'll come to see playing Italy third as our one advantage in this competition and ii) we've picked up 4 points from opening games of 2016 and 2020. That's a fantastic habit and really says a lot of positive things about the sides we produced.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
surge
I'd agree with that. Looking at it now and it's clear that Turkey weren't the same side that had beaten France 2-0 and drawn 1-1 away from home in the qualification for Euros 2020 so their FIFA ranking more telling of their current position, especially as they only won one game in the whole of 2020.
I'd agree with Splott Parker's point that tonight's game will show our result against Switzerland in a different light. Like Russia coming out of 2016 and then out of 2018, our perception of opposition teams after tournaments does tend to change quite a bit.
If I'm allowed to add two more things: i) in time we'll come to see playing Italy third as our one advantage in this competition and ii) we've picked up 4 points from opening games of 2016 and 2020. That's a fantastic habit and really says a lot of positive things about the sides we produced.
We picked up 3 points from the opening two games in 2016.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
surge
I'd agree with that. Looking at it now and it's clear that Turkey weren't the same side that had beaten France 2-0 and drawn 1-1 away from home in the qualification for Euros 2020 so their FIFA ranking more telling of their current position, especially as they only won one game in the whole of 2020.
I'd agree with Splott Parker's point that tonight's game will show our result against Switzerland in a different light. Like Russia coming out of 2016 and then out of 2018, our perception of opposition teams after tournaments does tend to change quite a bit.
If I'm allowed to add two more things: i) in time we'll come to see playing Italy third as our one advantage in this competition and ii) we've picked up 4 points from opening games of 2016 and 2020. That's a fantastic habit and really says a lot of positive things about the sides we produced.
Yes, there are nothing but positives from our Euro performances. It's been amazing!!
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
Yes, there are nothing but positives from our Euro performances. It's been amazing!!
Sarcasm? What have I said to deserve that?
I was disappointed with Denmark game - lack of plan B, showing too much frustration - but much more positive than negative overall when judged on context of it.
For Splott Parker, we won against Slovakia and drew again Switzerland giving us fast start in both tournaments when vitally important.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
surge
Sarcasm? What have I said to deserve that?
I was disappointed with Denmark game - lack of plan B, showing too much frustration - but much more positive than negative overall when judged on context of it.
For Splott Parker, we won against Slovakia and drew again Switzerland giving us fast start in both tournaments when vitally important.
Ah, I read it as we picked up 4 points from the first two games of both tournaments:thumbup:
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
Well we got as far as the reigning Euro & World Champs which sounds pretty good to me.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
surge
Sarcasm? What have I said to deserve that?
I was disappointed with Denmark game - lack of plan B, showing too much frustration - but much more positive than negative overall when judged on context of it.
For Splott Parker, we won against Slovakia and drew again Switzerland giving us fast start in both tournaments when vitally important.
No sarcasm, honestly. I'm proud of our efforts. We fell short against Denmark. Got a good draw against Switzerland. We can take positives from the tournament, even in defeat.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
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Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
No sarcasm, honestly. I'm proud of our efforts. We fell short against Denmark. Got a good draw against Switzerland. We can take positives from the tournament, even in defeat.
We were very fortunate to draw with Switzerland though. They should have scored three or four against us.
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Re: Is it such an achievement for Wales to have qualified from the group stages?
After tonight, anyone who says no needs their head checking.