Local election results.

I posted this on another board just now - I did not know the Wandsworth and Westminster results then and, as I mention , it's still early days yet, but I stick by what I said;

"It's still early days, but it seems to me that, at the moment, Labour are being taught the lesson that they cannot just keep on parroting Tory mistakes and scandals and expect voters to automatically fall into their laps - the Tories are losing votes, but they certainly aren't being switched to Labour in any great numbers.

As someone who is to the left politically, I can only name one policy of Labour's at the moment that I'm sure of and feel it would be a vote winner - a windfall tax on oil company profits (a policy shared by other opposition parties).

Labour needs to be more pro active and start telling us what they would do, not just what the the Tories are doing wrong - people may not like the Tories as much as they did, but I don't think they like an opposition that they feel does little else but criticise either.

I'd also say it's high time that Labour swallowed its pride and started talking to other opposition parties about things like electoral pacts as well as rethinking its views on proportional representation."

Think that is about right.

The London results were positive but there is little dent in the Red Wall seats that Labour will need to win the next election. I think the Tories have reabsorbed most of the Farage right flank and there is still a strong leave/remain divide that cuts across traditional party lines. This seems to favour the Tories in the Midlands and North at the expense of the the south where they are now more vulnerable.

I agree that Labour has to make a more positive case for change, though policies don't usually firm up until the latter stages of parliamentary terms. It looks like not being Boris Johnson is not enough for Starmer, particularly as the probability is that the Tories will jettison Johnson before the next election.

One thing I would say is that the Tories are not exactly fizzing with new ideas to sell either now or for the next election. Levelling up seems more of a slogan than a set of coherent policies. They can hardly go into the next election on a Brexit platform having "got it done" in this cycle, though they will no doubt sow seeds that the other parties will undo its imaginary gains.

I can only see informal agreements with other parties where 2nd place in seats is clear cut.

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

I posted this on another board just now - I did not know the Wandsworth and Westminster results then and, as I mention , it's still early days yet, but I stick by what I said;

"It's still early days, but it seems to me that, at the moment, Labour are being taught the lesson that they cannot just keep on parroting Tory mistakes and scandals and expect voters to automatically fall into their laps - the Tories are losing votes, but they certainly aren't being switched to Labour in any great numbers.

As someone who is to the left politically, I can only name one policy of Labour's at the moment that I'm sure of and feel it would be a vote winner - a windfall tax on oil company profits (a policy shared by other opposition parties).

Labour needs to be more pro active and start telling us what they would do, not just what the the Tories are doing wrong - people may not like the Tories as much as they did, but I don't think they like an opposition that they feel does little else but criticise either.

I'd also say it's high time that Labour swallowed its pride and started talking to other opposition parties about things like electoral pacts as well as rethinking its views on proportional representation."

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Completely agree, I have no idea what they stand for and the fact Starmer said he'd break his pledges to win an election concerns me greatly. They won't have my vote until this is addressed (voted for green/plaid yesterday).

It does look like a pattern is emerging. It has been a lot easier for labour to make gains in areas where Brexit wasn't a problem for them.

It's a difficult one because ordinarily you wouldn't want to show your hand this far from a GE but these locals, more than any, have been undertaken on a national basis with Boris being the main issue.

This is probably typical of starmer, a slow creep towards some small small level of dominance but he is never going to inspire massive headline gains.

It does feel like the macro environment is going to play out in favour of labour though, as it did for the tories in 2008-2010. Maybe a similar reaction from the electorate to that time period, not enough fully trust the opposition for a landslide but enough to form a coalition.

I agree with most of the points above. Would add that Labour has lost 200,000 members since Starmer’s election as leader including many of the younger and most active. It is a hamstrung and demoralised party with few policies and an uninspiring leader who has reneged on all his 10 pledges. As an ex-member I didn’t vote Labour this time (my partner - also an ex-member stood for the WEP) and I saw hardly any Labour posters around.

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Originally Posted by jon1959

I agree with most of the points above. Would add that Labour has lost 200,000 members since Starmer’s election as leader including many of the younger and most active. It is a hamstrung and demoralised party with few policies and an uninspiring leader who has reneged on all his 10 pledges. As an ex-member I didn’t vote Labour this time (my partner - also an ex-member stood for the WEP) and I saw hardly any Labour posters around.

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Around here there was a Independent councillor who has made local issues his priority since he won his place on the Council after the last election. He got one of my two votes and I gave the other one to Labour because the Council up here seems more proactive and visible than it was in Cardiff.

So, my votes were made very much from the perspective of local politics and I believe that there is a move towards “smaller” politics across the country - I might be wrong, but it strikes me that this should aid left/progressive parties more.

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Originally Posted by jon1959

I agree with most of the points above. Would add that Labour has lost 200,000 members since Starmer’s election as leader including many of the younger and most active. It is a hamstrung and demoralised party with few policies and an uninspiring leader who has reneged on all his 10 pledges. As an ex-member I didn’t vote Labour this time (my partner - also an ex-member stood for the WEP) and I saw hardly any Labour posters around.

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I was one of those as well, I was inspired by Corbyn who genuinely wanted to make things better for the population and couldn't be bought off by the billionaire class.

Then now we have mr status quo starmer.

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Originally Posted by jon1959

I agree with most of the points above. Would add that Labour has lost 200,000 members since Starmer’s election as leader including many of the younger and most active. It is a hamstrung and demoralised party with few policies and an uninspiring leader who has reneged on all his 10 pledges. As an ex-member I didn’t vote Labour this time (my partner - also an ex-member stood for the WEP) and I saw hardly any Labour posters around.

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Bring back Corbyn I say, or get Angela to launch an offensive

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Originally Posted by Doucas

I was one of those as well, I was inspired by Corbyn who genuinely wanted to make things better for the population and couldn't be bought off by the billionaire class.

Then now we have mr status quo starmer.

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All the population ??

Which countries ??

All races ??

NATO or Russia ??

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Originally Posted by life on mars

All the population ??

Which countries ??

All races ??

NATO or Russia ??

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Anyone in the UK outside of the top 1% wealth bracket.

I seriously can't wait for your way of thinking forged by 50+ years of right wing billionaire propaganda to die off so that we can fix the serious issues in our society.

So Corbyn who has denounced Putin many many times is the Russian whole the tories who receive significant amount of funding by Russian oligarchs and pushed for brexit aren't. Hilarious.

Labour must ben slightly underwhelmed with so much flax thrown at the Tories id expect a bigger turn out protest vote instad of a 1 in 5 votes cast turnout

Wonder if Corbyn now gone the fear he would get in and allowed centralist Labour candidates to get some votes and liberals making more gains so far , it may change but Labour only up 33 and Green not far behind on 23 and Liberals up 58 its interesting times

Tories down 120 .

What is needed now is the rise of new Corbyn party ???????????????

Abolish labour and liberal parties , form a new alternative left of centre party

No other option

Some good analysis above.

It's a good day for Labour, but in all honesty, thats what you expect in local elections from whomever isn't in government and in that context it's not as good as Labour would have historically expected. Also, more evidence that the party are becoming increasingly popular in wealthier, metropolitan cities and parts of London and are still struggling to enthuse more traditionally working class communities in the north. Nothing we didn't know before.

Still lots to count, but Tories will probably be okay with it. They expected a kicking, they got a kicking and sometimes people want to punish parties, and having done so are sometimes more open to voting for them again.

Lib Dems have done well. They often do at local elections. Might be the start of a return to prominence for them after brexit etc. Lots of southern Tories will be more content voting for Lib Dems than Labour.

Greens picked up a few, no bad thing. Interesting from a Labour perspective though who probably want to keep that genie in the box a little.

No news from Wales - I expect the status quo

Scotland - I think Labour will gain a lot of seats, at the expense of the Tories and the SNP

N.IReland - Unfortunately Sinn Fein will win, which will stir the pot a lot.

Sinn Fein becoming the largest party in NI will be the best news from these elections.

Unionism is in crisis - good!

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Originally Posted by jon1959

Sinn Fein becoming the largest party in NI will be the best news from these elections.

Unionism is in crisis - good!

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Hear hear and if the wretched DUP get whacked into third place by the Alliance it would be perfection.

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Originally Posted by Eric Cartman

It does look like a pattern is emerging. It has been a lot easier for labour to make gains in areas where Brexit wasn't a problem for them.

It's a difficult one because ordinarily you wouldn't want to show your hand this far from a GE but these locals, more than any, have been undertaken on a national basis with Boris being the main issue.

This is probably typical of starmer, a slow creep towards some small small level of dominance but he is never going to inspire massive headline gains.

It does feel like the macro environment is going to play out in favour of labour though, as it did for the tories in 2008-2010. Maybe a similar reaction from the electorate to that time period, not enough fully trust the opposition for a landslide but enough to form a coalition.

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I think your analysis is sound. I thought it interesting to read the opinion of Sky election expert Will Jennings. He says the Conservatives did far better in council areas with a low graduate demographic but fared much worse in areas with a demographic of higher educational achievement. Labour's results followed the converse.

I wonder if it might be a useful Tory government strategy to allow pupils to leave school at 12: it might just secure their future.

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

Some good analysis above.

It's a good day for Labour, but in all honesty, thats what you expect in local elections from whomever isn't in government and in that context it's not as good as Labour would have historically expected. Also, more evidence that the party are becoming increasingly popular in wealthier, metropolitan cities and parts of London and are still struggling to enthuse more traditionally working class communities in the north. Nothing we didn't know before.

Still lots to count, but Tories will probably be okay with it. They expected a kicking, they got a kicking and sometimes people want to punish parties, and having done so are sometimes more open to voting for them again.

Lib Dems have done well. They often do at local elections. Might be the start of a return to prominence for them after brexit etc. Lots of southern Tories will be more content voting for Lib Dems than Labour.

Greens picked up a few, no bad thing. Interesting from a Labour perspective though who probably want to keep that genie in the box a little.

No news from Wales - I expect the status quo

Scotland - I think Labour will gain a lot of seats, at the expense of the Tories and the SNP

N.IReland - Unfortunately Sinn Fein will win, which will stir the pot a lot.

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Unfortunate for whom? If they win, that will be the democratic will of the NI people. That's how it works.

Does make the UK gov's squirming over the deal it agreed on the NI Protocol even more difficult - I can see that.

I listened to a Podcast previewing the elections and it turned out be pretty accurate apart from two things. Firstly, they thought there was no chance of Labour taking Westminster and, second, that predictions of some sort of electoral Armageddon for the Conservatives were wide of the mark - the conclusion was that the “smart money” was on them losing something like 250/300 Councillors.

Well, they’ve lost 398 and, although I presume all of the results are in by now, if that we’re to go up to hit 400 to allow the extent to which they had a bad election more significant, I wonder if that may have consequences for Johnson? If they really have lost a hundred seats more than the so called smart money was expecting, then will those MPs finally find some backbone? I’m not holding my breath.

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Originally Posted by Swiss Peter

Unfortunate for whom? If they win, that will be the democratic will of the NI people. That's how it works.

Does make the UK gov's squirming over the deal it agreed on the NI Protocol even more difficult - I can see that.

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I think we will see how democratic the Democratic Unionist Party is when they contemplate power sharing when they are not the dominant power!

Some think democratic votes are there to.be overturned ?

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Originally Posted by life on mars

Some think democratic votes are there to.be overturned ?

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Donald Trump?

oops sorry I meant Donald Trump???

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Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays

I think we will see how democratic the Democratic Unionist Party is when they contemplate power sharing when they are not the dominant power!

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Yes very good point. They won't share power with SF. In my opinion this is a flaw in the GFA. If the Deputy Leader refuses to share power the Deputy Leadership should transfer to the third largest Assembly party.

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Originally Posted by Dorcus

Yes very good point. They won't share power with SF. In my opinion this is a flaw in the GFA. If the Deputy Leader refuses to share power the Deputy Leadership should transfer to the third largest Assembly party.

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They will share power with SF because they have in the past, but not with Sinn Fein having the First Minister, even though the posts of First and Deputy are equally important in he eyes of the GFA. It's semantics of course but we are talking about the DUP here.

There would be no point transferring the Deputy Leadership to the third largest party, because the DUP wouldn't take part in the assembly so it couldn't function anyway.

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Originally Posted by Elwood Blues

They will share power with SF because they have in the past, but not with Sinn Fein having the First Minister, even though the posts of First and Deputy are equally important in he eyes of the GFA. It's semantics of course but we are talking about the DUP here.

There would be no point transferring the Deputy Leadership to the third largest party, because the DUP wouldn't take part in the assembly so it couldn't function anyway.

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You're right we're talking about the DUP here. What a bunch of knobheads.

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Originally Posted by Swiss Peter

Unfortunate for whom? If they win, that will be the democratic will of the NI people. That's how it works.

Does make the UK gov's squirming over the deal it agreed on the NI Protocol even more difficult - I can see that.

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Well I wrote the post, so it's unfortunate from my perspective.

I have little time for Sinn Fein I am afraid. It is stacked with people who hold, or have held opinions sympathetic to the IRA and they offer little but chaos going forward and the break up of a country.

I don't dispute for a second their right to try and lead a coalition government but that doesn't mean that I don't think it's an unfortunate thing.

Personally, I'd rather the SDLP and the UUP do better than the more radical Sinn Fein and DUP / TUV

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

Well I wrote the post, so it's unfortunate from my perspective.

I have little time for Sinn Fein I am afraid. It is stacked with people who hold, or have held opinions sympathetic to the IRA and they offer little but chaos going forward and the break up of a country.

I don't dispute for a second their right to try and lead a coalition government but that doesn't mean that I don't think it's an unfortunate thing.

Personally, I'd rather the SDLP and the UUP do better than the more radical Sinn Fein and DUP / TUV

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It will take a lot more time for Sinn Fein to shake of the taint of Adams and McGuinness but when it comes to the potential break-up of the United Kingdom (I presume you mean this country) there are greater pressures than the election of a Sinn Fein First Minister.

I think it was Theresa May who said no UK Prime Minister could agree a customs border in the Irish Sea between Great Britain and Northern Ireland but that is exactly what Boris Johnson agreed so expediently with DUP votes to get Brexit done. For all the denial noise from both the UK government and the DUP since the real risk is not the supposed stifling of trade with the mainland but the competitive advantage that Northern Ireland has by remaining in the Single Market.

Similarly Brexit has re-energised separatist sentiment in Scotland. Both present greater threats to the Union than half hearted noises from the Shinners on a United Ireland.

Attachment 4908

horrible set of results for the Tories, on what was a pretty bad result last time around.
Labour will be very pleased with the results in Wales and London, but the rest of the country was fairly flat. but then I think they now have more seats than all the other parties put together

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Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays

Donald Trump?

oops sorry I meant Donald Trump???

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No UK MP's in Parliament sadly

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Originally Posted by Rjk

Attachment 4908

horrible set of results for the Tories, on what was a pretty bad result last time around.
Labour will be very pleased with the results in Wales and London, but the rest of the country was fairly flat. but then I think they now have more seats than all the other parties put together

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Looks like the red Northern Wall held up for Tories though which is a shock .
The South West Remainers / NIMBYS went Liberal and Green .
Wales should worry about Plaid.
SNP were always going to win more seats as they hate anything English.
Labour has confirmed its Metropolitan middle class voting base how that plays out in the Election will be of great interest.

The map looks like remain v leave gotta feeling Brexit will be revisited as the Tories will stoke that fear of returning to Europe if you vote LD or Labour .

The other game to be played out will be of one of collation with SNP / Labour and the break up of UK .

Cant wait for the general election ,that's always one to stay up for not these.

I wonder who will be the Labour and Tory leaders into that campaign

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Originally Posted by Rjk

Attachment 4908

horrible set of results for the Tories, on what was a pretty bad result last time around.
Labour will be very pleased with the results in Wales and London, but the rest of the country was fairly flat. but then I think they now have more seats than all the other parties put together

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Think that the Labour results outside London and Wales are about what was expected and emphasises the size of the task they face.

As for the Tories, I mentioned in an earlier message that the “smart money” was on them losing between 250 and 300 seats. In the event, they’ve lost close to double that, but many people will go by the initial reporting which had that the results were not as bad as feared - I suppose the question is, will Tory MPs have cottoned on that the results are, in fact, pretty terrible for the party? I’m sure they will, but whether they’ll do anything about their liability of a leader is another matter.

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Originally Posted by life on mars

No UK MP's in Parliament sadly

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Where are the UK MPs if not in Parliament? :biggrin:

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Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays

Think that is about right.

The London results were positive but there is little dent in the Red Wall seats that Labour will need to win the next election. I think the Tories have reabsorbed most of the Farage right flank and there is still a strong leave/remain divide that cuts across traditional party lines. This seems to favour the Tories in the Midlands and North at the expense of the the south where they are now more vulnerable.

I agree that Labour has to make a more positive case for change, though policies don't usually firm up until the latter stages of parliamentary terms. It looks like not being Boris Johnson is not enough for Starmer, particularly as the probability is that the Tories will jettison Johnson before the next election.

One thing I would say is that the Tories are not exactly fizzing with new ideas to sell either now or for the next election. Levelling up seems more of a slogan than a set of coherent policies. They can hardly go into the next election on a Brexit platform having "got it done" in this cycle, though they will no doubt sow seeds that the other parties will undo its imaginary gains.

I can only see informal agreements with other parties where 2nd place in seats is clear cut.

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RE: levelling up, it was on R4 this morning that of the Las for the 100 worst off areas, something like 38 local authorities had received levelling up grants, despite around 70% applying.

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

Well I wrote the post, so it's unfortunate from my perspective.

I have little time for Sinn Fein I am afraid. It is stacked with people who hold, or have held opinions sympathetic to the IRA and they offer little but chaos going forward and the break up of a country.

I don't dispute for a second their right to try and lead a coalition government but that doesn't mean that I don't think it's an unfortunate thing.

Personally, I'd rather the SDLP and the UUP do better than the more radical Sinn Fein and DUP / TUV

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Indeed ( I have little time for Sinn Fein) strange how romantically they are viewed now ??

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Originally Posted by Tito Fuente

Where are the UK MPs if not in Parliament? :biggrin:

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Yes indeed ,the question related to abiding by a Democratic vote or decision and not trying to overturn the will of the people, as the people will lash out .