Promoted to the Premier League - stick or twist..

Seeing that Nottingham Forest are approaching a summer spend of £60 million, with the associated massive hike in wages, I'm just wondering which 3 teams they're hoping to finish above. Fulham and Bournemouth presumably, and then probably Watford. After that there's not much what you'd call poor sides. Everton won't go down, they never do. Newcastle and Villa are getting established. Perhaps Leeds ?

On reflection I think they are looking to put together a squad that will be at least a couple of places from the bottom 3. £20-£30 million would probably give you a fighting chance, but £60 million - you have to be looking at 15th/16th at least.

It's a long way from the Norwich yo-yo approach, but it seems the more you spend the shorter the odds of staying up. The flip side is you have so much more to lose.

They'll definitely finish above Watford, especially as they are now in the Championship !

I would say that £60m is the minimum you need to spend to give yourself a chance of avoiding the drop. Even relatively average players cost £20-£30m nowadays.

I think Forest will finish above both Fulham and Bournemouth. Leeds will go down and I wouldn't be surprised if Everton do too, as they have let their best outfield player go. Still, they have Pickford in goals, who Imo saved them from relegation last season. They'll probably finish above Southampton and Brentford too (it depends who they have got in to replace Erikson, who will be sorely missed). Will Villa improve on last seasons 14th position? It too, depends on who Gerrard has got in. I can see them struggling again, so Forest could finish above Villa too unless they hit the ground running.

I could well be wrong though and Forest finish bottom of the table come next May lol

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Moodybluebird

I would say that £60m is the minimum you need to spend to give yourself a chance of avoiding the drop. Even relatively average players cost £20-£30m nowadays.

---

This.

I think they'll do OK too. Especially in the first half of the season. I fancy them to finish above Fulham and Bournemouth and at this rate Everton.

I think Brentford could struggle with the 2nd season syndrome

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Don Corleone

I think Brentford could struggle with the 2nd season syndrome

---

Yes, maybe that's the 3rd after Bournemouth and Fulham

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Moodybluebird

I would say that £60m is the minimum you need to spend to give yourself a chance of avoiding the drop. Even relatively average players cost £20-£30m nowadays.

---

The figures talked about nowadays are frightening. Time was, being promoted suggested you were more than ready for the step up, over and above the rest in your division. I reckon there are 8 or 9 teams in the Championship who - given a spend of £60m - would stand a fair chance of staying up

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

The figures talked about nowadays are frightening. Time was, being promoted suggested you were more than ready for the step up, over and above the rest in your division. I reckon there are 8 or 9 teams in the Championship who - given a spend of £60m - would stand a fair chance of staying up

---

As you said in your heading - Stick or twist ?
Difficult to know where to draw the line between being ambitious and being overly cautious.

What I would say in Forest's favour is that they have a damn good coach. Likewise Graham Potter of Brighton. You've got a decent chance of success with a top coach at the helm and I suspect Forest will just about maintain their PL status next season.

Lingard signed on a 1 year deal - works brilliantly for both parties I think

Players like Neco will go up in value.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Seeing that Nottingham Forest are approaching a summer spend of £60 million, with the associated massive hike in wages, I'm just wondering which 3 teams they're hoping to finish above. Fulham and Bournemouth presumably, and then probably Watford. After that there's not much what you'd call poor sides. Everton won't go down, they never do. Newcastle and Villa are getting established. Perhaps Leeds ?

On reflection I think they are looking to put together a squad that will be at least a couple of places from the bottom 3. £20-£30 million would probably give you a fighting chance, but £60 million - you have to be looking at 15th/16th at least.

It's a long way from the Norwich yo-yo approach, but it seems the more you spend the shorter the odds of staying up. The flip side is you have so much more to lose.

---

Didn’t we spend £60 million in 2013 and 2019 after promotion? Fulham spent 100 and finished below us….it takes more than just throwing money at it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Wales-Bales

Players like Neco will go up in value.

---

Which fragment of your brain will triumph in the end do you think. The one which says we are heading for a dystopian catastrophe in three years because of the Great Reset or the other bit that says our next golden generation will rule the roost in World Cup USA 2026?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Wales-Bales

Players like Neco will go up in value.

---

As will Brennan Johnson, who they can flog for more money after a season in the EPL if they get relegated.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Moodybluebird

As you said in your heading - Stick or twist ?
Difficult to know where to draw the line between being ambitious and being overly cautious.

What I would say in Forest's favour is that they have a damn good coach. Likewise Graham Potter of Brighton. You've got a decent chance of success with a top coach at the helm and I suspect Forest will just about maintain their PL status next season.

---

I totally agree with this. I also think that giving Cooper £60M to spend is also a much safer option than say, someone like Warnock. I'm looking forward to seeing how Forest do this season. I'm a big fan of Cooper and of course there's the Brennan Johnson connection too.

I think Gerrard will do OK at Villa as he'll have the chance to develop his own squad. Likewise, Potter at Brighton. Brentford will struggle imo.

I think AQM raises a really good question regarding stick or twist. It's still galling to see our squad this season and manager when we've had two PL promotions in recent years. My view is that we've not been either ambitious enough or ruthless enough or smart enough as a club since our first promotion. The second relegation was inexcusable and farcically naive to expect Warnock to take the club forward.

Look where we are.

It still hurts.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by goats

Didn’t we spend £60 million in 2013 and 2019 after promotion? Fulham spent 100 and finished below us….it takes more than just throwing money at it.

---

It does indeed. The greater the spend, the better the chances of survival, but whilst the odds move in your favour, the financial consequences of failure are greater. And unless you have a good manager and good contacts, no amount of money will assure you of success.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

It does indeed. The greater the spend, the better the chances of survival, but whilst the odds move in your favour, the financial consequences of failure are greater. And unless you have a good manager and good contacts, no amount of money will assure you of success.

---

I agree with this but would add that a naive board and owner (it's perfectly possible to be thankful for what he had done for CCFC and be critical at the same time) is the constant in our case.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Seeing that Nottingham Forest are approaching a summer spend of £60 million, with the associated massive hike in wages, I'm just wondering which 3 teams they're hoping to finish above. Fulham and Bournemouth presumably, and then probably Watford. After that there's not much what you'd call poor sides. Everton won't go down, they never do. Newcastle and Villa are getting established. Perhaps Leeds ?

On reflection I think they are looking to put together a squad that will be at least a couple of places from the bottom 3. £20-£30 million would probably give you a fighting chance, but £60 million - you have to be looking at 15th/16th at least.

It's a long way from the Norwich yo-yo approach, but it seems the more you spend the shorter the odds of staying up. The flip side is you have so much more to lose.

---

Fulham spent well over £100m four years ago, were useless and came straight back down finishing well below us in the table. Its not always money that counts.

Twist, go all in, with rich owners, its not our money and I doubt will ever be replayed

now if you are not owned by a wealthy owner, of course the answer it stick and hope for the best, try and build and get ready next time, but you will then face the question again

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Citizen's Nephew

I agree with this but would add that a naive board and owner (it's perfectly possible to be thankful for what he had done for CCFC and be critical at the same time) is the constant in our case.

---

We haven't really been a 'well run club' since the 1950's. Too mean, not ambitious enough, not wealthy enough, too naive, too little football nouse - we've never got it quite right.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dml1954

Fulham spent well over £100m four years ago, were useless and came straight back down finishing well below us in the table. Its not always money that counts.

---

I could have sworn they've just been promoted again being easily the best team in the league last season. As I recall we didn't. You're right money isn't everything.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Citizen's Nephew

I totally agree with this. I also think that giving Cooper £60M to spend is also a much safer option than say, someone like Warnock. I'm looking forward to seeing how Forest do this season. I'm a big fan of Cooper and of course there's the Brennan Johnson connection too.

I think Gerrard will do OK at Villa as he'll have the chance to develop his own squad. Likewise, Potter at Brighton. Brentford will struggle imo.

I think AQM raises a really good question regarding stick or twist. It's still galling to see our squad this season and manager when we've had two PL promotions in recent years. My view is that we've not been either ambitious enough or ruthless enough or smart enough as a club since our first promotion. The second relegation was inexcusable and farcically naive to expect Warnock to take the club forward.

Look where we are.

It still hurts.

---

In 2019 we went down by only two points, finished 8 points above Fulham (who spent £100m+) and 18 above Huddersfield. One more win and we would have stayed up (Chelsea home game comes to mind when we were cheated by an incompetent ref and linesman). Hardly inexcusable or farcically naive performance bearing in mind all the other clubs that have been relegated straight back in recent years with far worse records than us.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dorcus

I could have sworn they've just been promoted again being easily the best team in the league last season. As I recall we didn't. You're right money isn't everything.

---

But it is a risky strategy

If something goes wrong and you don’t get yourself up quickly it can all fall apart quite easily


If a few clubs adopt the same strategy, the risk multiplies, Fulham are lucky that all other teams shedded costs and players while they did the opposite.

Can’t fault them and you’re right they won it at a canter, but who knows what might have happened if it wasn’t for COVID

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dorcus

I could have sworn they've just been promoted again being easily the best team in the league last season. As I recall we didn't. You're right money isn't everything.

---

And in the meantime your favourite team were promoted again in 2020 and relegated again, in 2021, spending another £100m in the process. Thats three promotions and two relegations in the last five years. Lovely. Something we can all aspire to

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dorcus

I could have sworn they've just been promoted again being easily the best team in the league last season. As I recall we didn't. You're right money isn't everything.

---

Yes, do you remember the narrative that we would bounce back? In fact, the Fulham argument is a redundant one for a number of reasons. Firstly, we both got relegated. Secondly, Fulham were already relegated when we played them away. Warnock royally f*cked that up because he was a stubborn git. I can't be sure (stating the bleeding obvious), but if we'd had a better manager and £100M spend that season, we wouldn't be looking at 17th in The Championship this season as some dizzy height of achievement.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dml1954

And in the meantime your favourite team were promoted again in 2020 and relegated again, in 2021, spending another £100m in the process. Thats three promotions and two relegations in the last five years. Lovely. Something we can all aspire to

---

You're not thinking this through. If promotion after being relegated isn't something to aspire to, what is?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Citizen's Nephew

Yes, do you remember the narrative that we would bounce back? In fact, the Fulham argument is a redundant one for a number of reasons. Firstly, we both got relegated. Secondly, Fulham were already relegated when we played them away. Warnock royally f*cked that up because he was a stubborn git. I can't be sure (stating the bleeding obvious), but if we'd had a better manager and £100M spend that season, we wouldn't be looking at 17th in The Championship this season as some dizzy height of achievement.

---

The moral of the story is one needs to speculate to accumulate (as always) and having a competent and progressive manager is a massive plus.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dorcus

The moral of the story is one needs to speculate to accumulate (as always) and having a competent and progressive manager is a massive plus.

---

:thumbup:I might write it up as a fable in the style of Aesop! :hehe:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Citizen's Nephew

You're not thinking this through. If promotion after being relegated isn't something to aspire to, what is?

---

In Fulham's case it is obviously to aspire to be relegated again. They don't learn the lessons and throw silly money at it again, on the wrong players, which has so far failed.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dml1954

In Fulham's case it is obviously to aspire to be relegated again. They don't learn the lessons and throw silly money at it again, on the wrong players, which has so far failed.

---

Hear hear! Fulham should follow City’s model and spend their money on players with genuine Premier League pedigrees like Josh Murphy, Greg Cunningham and Leandro Bacuna.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dml1954

In Fulham's case it is obviously to aspire to be relegated again. They don't learn the lessons and throw silly money at it again, on the wrong players, which has so far failed.

---

But is hasn't failed has it? They're back in the PL and with a stronger squad than when they went up with us a few years ago.

I don't even know how there can possibly be an argument over this. Last season, they were auto-promoted (at a canter as someone else pointed out). What were we doing? Scrapping it out at the bottom of the same division. If you look at Fulham and us over the last few seasons, throw in Wolves and Villa for good measure, what have we learned or achieved? We've gone backwards at an alarming rate.

We can't keep blaming it on an horrendous piece of officiating against Chelsea. Warnock couldn't do anything about that. So the Fulham match imo is fair game for criticism. I honestly believe we've been horrendously mismanaged from a footballing perspective. Anyway, I'm boring myself now as we'll never agree on this so you're welcome to the last word. I really don't care enough.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

We haven't really been a 'well run club' since the 1950's. Too mean, not ambitious enough, not wealthy enough, too naive, too little football nouse - we've never got it quite right.

---

Aint that the the truth .
Forever middle of the road ... wherever middle of the road is...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dorcus

The moral of the story is one needs to speculate to accumulate (as always) and having a competent and progressive manager is a massive plus.

---

You mean like Cooper ? Was it ever on the cards?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock

You mean like Cooper ? Was it ever on the cards?

---

There you are, I rest my case, and Forest haven't been afraid to spend money when needed. One reaps what one sows.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dml1954

Fulham spent well over £100m four years ago, were useless and came straight back down finishing well below us in the table. Its not always money that counts.

---

What is it then? I'm not disagreeing with you. But what do you think it is that counts?

I think they'll be fine and because of Neco, Johnson and Hennessey I actually hope they survive. Yuck.

I couldnt care less if they stay up or not but theyve signed Lingaard now. They really are having a right go at the PL. Havent heard of a lot of their signings.

Losing Spence is a blow didnt they have other loans as well did any of them stay.

I still say they are 1 of the 3 most likely to drop.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hilts

I couldnt care less if they stay up or not but theyve signed Lingaard now. They really are having a right go at the PL. Havent heard of a lot of their signings.

Losing Spence is a blow didnt they have other loans as well did any of them stay.

I still say they are 1 of the 3 most likely to drop.

---

any of the promoted teams nearly always stand a decent chance of being in the bottom 5, if not the 1st season then the 2nd

while the difference in the top of the Championship and the bottom of the EPL is very small, you know the way its going

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dml1954

In Fulham's case it is obviously to aspire to be relegated again. They don't learn the lessons and throw silly money at it again, on the wrong players, which has so far failed.

---

I wonder what Fulham’s accounts are like? Not like they have big crowds? Rich owner just sucking it up? Or just better mgt than VT ever managed when relegated

Given that the team finishing bottom will still get ~£100m from TV revenue and other sources, spending £60m on players isn't too shocking.
The trouble is those teams that do get relegated will have the wage bills carrying forward to the Championship.
Its ridiculous money.