Looks grim for the tories in blue so far, but the tories in red are doing well.
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Looks grim for the tories in blue so far, but the tories in red are doing well.
I live in East Herts, massive swing away from the Tories, mostly to the greens. Not entirely unexpected as lots wouldn't vote Labour and the Lib Dems are so meh at the moment that even though they are the natural 'protest' they aren't really a convincing option. But the scale of the Tory collapse is unbelievable. Tory controlled all but one term during the 30+ years I have lived here. They won all 50 seats in 2015.
yeah this isn't looking good for the tories, maybe they need another leadership contest
They were saying the other day that any more than 600 Tory losses would be a worse than expected result .
Now they're talking about 700 losses and I've even seen 1000 being mentioned.
Senior tories are saying we need to cut taxes to stimulate growth - didn't they already try that?
The real election is what matters
I want to see the Tories absolutely battered but I think at best it may be a labour liberal coalition
The Tories have an 80 seat majority to overturn its a big ask
Largest party is what Labour need to aim for
Shit night for the Conservatives and a good night for Labour. That is pretty standard with local elections mind, where the party in power in Westminster very often gets a kicking.
That said, it's real results. It gives credibility to the opinion polls and undeniably shifts the balance of power towards Labour and also the Lib Dems.
I don't think it changes anything from last week though. We knew this would happen. Turnouts are low and people do vote differently in local elections.
For me the big thing is that it's a race against time for Rishi Sunak. Global economic conditions should be far better for the next 18 months than the last 3 years and a lot of the criticism thrown at them (inflation etc) will likely dissipate, allowing for some targeted tax cuts and growth whilst keeping unemployment low etc
Labour still on course to win, but I don't think yesterdays result change that much at all really
Concerning UK unemployment, this BBC article from March is an eye-opener. Unemployment: Who are the millions of Britons not working? - https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52660591
It says, 'about a quarter of people of working-age - around 10 million people - don't currently have jobs,' then later on, 'officially, about 1.3 million people in the UK were unemployed.'
Effectively then, there's really approaching 8 times more working-age people who are unemployed than what the official figures - which is defined and manipulated by government setting a very narrow criteria - would have us believe.
Yes and the effects will ripple , cannot wait for the next General Election , it will hinge on those not wanting to vote for Labour and Tories ,where will they go ,will folk warm more to Rishi Sunak as the polls are suggesting , will times get better , will greens take more , will SNP recover all by 28 January 2025 the latest date the next GE can be called ... its going to be brutal on here and out there
Seeing as the SNP are somewhere between opposing same sex marriage and allowing male rapists to identify as women to get into a woman's prison - you would think Labour would being getting all those seats in Scotland at the next election
Unfortunately Sir Beer Korma cant seem to work out if a woman can actually have a penis or not or whether Eddy izzard can go on the all woman panel as a prospective MP.
If Labour can sort it out then Sir Keir should be a shoe in for the next election. It'll then be the Tories chance to leave a note saying "all the money's gone" - nothing seems to ever change
past 600 Tory losses with 30% of the results still to come in
Tories have lowered expectations to such an extent that 800 losses will be portrayed as not that bad - that’s codswallop, but will Labour really be that pleased with their showing? Good results for Lib Dems and Greens.
Bad as it is,there are another 5-6 front benchers that haven't had a turn at being PM
Looks like I underestimated the Tory losses, they’re over 800 losses with forty still to declare.
Yes, it’s beginning to look like I drew my conclusions too early. According to the BBC, Labour gains are now edging towards 500 and Conservative losses are over 900 with twenty four councils still to declare.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
Tories over one thousand losses now - this was the figure they were talking about so that they could say they didn’t do too badly when they only lost eight hundred (which is the sort of figure they were really expecting to lose). These are terrible results for the Conservatives if that loss figure stays at current levels (there’s still twelve councils still to declare).
Terrible results for Labour as well.
https://socialistworker.co.uk/news/e...m-for-starmer/
One needs to take the blinkers off and see the bigger picture
I dislike this version of labour but the cold hard fact is this has been a big success for them.
However, I think someone else posted in this thread, I think Labour are only getting more votes because they aren't tory rather than coming up with actual reasons people should vote for them.
Socialist Worker. Haven't read that for a while. I see within the first few paragraphs they are already manufacturing the idea of ranpant fascism!
I genuinely wouldn't read much into this. Its local elections. It was a very good night for Labour and a very bad one for the Tories. It's a bit like looking at the League Cup and determing league form based on that.
Labour are still set for government but the polls are tightening and likely to tighten more as more favourable economic winds benefit Sunak and the reality of campaigning kicks in.
The one thing that you can be sure of about the great British public is that the one thing they don't like is politicians who gloat and take the electorate for granted by making statements like Starmer did indicating they think they have already won the next general election. As for the Lib Dems, they fall for it every time - win some seats and councils, think they are the best thing since sliced bread and then disappear without trace at the next main election.
That's generally been the way of it for years.
1997 was arguably the last time we had an election where people really voted for something positive.
The Tories got back in with a coalition in 2010 as Labour's time had run its course, bit like what is happening to them now.
Theresa May managed to blow a huge lead in the polls and people forget that Jeremy Corbyn managed to increase Labour's support to the point where May lost her overall control over Westminster and had to fork out lots of wonga to buy out the DUP.
People voted for Boris Johnson because he was popular with the public, probably because he'd shagged about 17% of them.
Since then, the further right of the Tory party have made their move on the back of Johnson's popularity, resulting in Truss's failed government in record time and plummeting in the polls.
The opposition are split
And both starmer and Ed davey are hopeless
I think a hung parliament with Labour the biggest party is on the cards
Probably no bad thing
As long as we get the Tories out
Hardly “terrible”, was Starmer expecting better when he was in Medway yesterday morning talking about forming a majority Government? Probably, but it seems that the country isn’t yet fully convinced by him or his party - that’s no bad thing as far as I’m concerned if it brings about a rethink on the dubious attack ads and leads to the leader applying the same meaning to the word “pledge” that ninety five per cent of the population does.
If the country is still making their minds up about the Labour party, it would appear that they have done about the Tories and there is a pretty broad based and large majority of anti Tory voters who feel that getting this shower out, as opposed to their party in, is the biggest priority in the general election.
I asked google, what is the definition and measurement of UK unemployment?
Answer - Unemployed people are defined as those aged 16 or over who are without work, available to start work in the next two weeks and who have either: a) been actively seeking work in the past four weeks, or. b) are waiting to start a new job they have already obtained.
ONS data for February 2023 - Employment in the UK: February 2023 - https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentand...k/february2023
Says: February 2023 UK unemployment rate: 3.7%, employment rate: 75.8%.
Or, 24.2% are not employed, but just 3.7% of those are counted as unemployed.
Of course, but within those you class as not-employed will be full time students and those training for work. It's not as if nearly 25% of the population sits on its arse. There will be a small percentage of people who choose not to work as a partner earns enough to keep both of them plus family.
Interestingly, the 75.8% employment rate includes those working part time and those on zero hour contracts. It's not as if three quarters of the population are in full time, meaningful employment.
Interesting that UKIP was wiped out in the local elections, and Reform only have 6 councillors.
The Tory Party has hoovered up the splintered right wing vote and is once again the disunited party of the right - apart from the self defined Independents in local elections who are Tories without the blue rosette.
Meanwhile on the left of the spectrum the Greens have doubled their councillor numbers (close to 500), taken their first council, and continued to run others in coalition with Labour. The Lib Dems have recovered more. Other new left parties and groups are emerging as the Labour purge of its socialist membership continues.
Put the nationalists into the mix and the realignment of electoral politics shows a right wing united in a single party (even if that covers a range of hostile factions) and a very fragmented centre and left.
That doesn't mean that parties won't informally co-operate in the next general election nor that electors (those allowed to take part with the new ID rules) won't vote tactically.