https://youtu.be/UKAY97gpnrw?si=a-4sHLxgoZOoWQn1
I am ex forces he says
Probably threw him out with all those tattoos
Problem today is you can't be racist without people calling you racist
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https://youtu.be/UKAY97gpnrw?si=a-4sHLxgoZOoWQn1
I am ex forces he says
Probably threw him out with all those tattoos
Problem today is you can't be racist without people calling you racist
Seems a nice bloke
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...chart-31206989
When you think who the former MP was as well, you’d guess they had no chance, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they retain the seat.
When you have a weak opposition that's always going to be a fair shoutQuote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
That ex army bloke is an advert for stupidity
Apparently the Tamworth constituency has an unusually large number of homes worth upwards of £7.5 million. It's a pretty safe bet those votes won't be going to Labour nor probably the Lib Dems. For some people it's not about government competency or otherwise.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
Vox-pop interviews on the street don't usually convey that we have a well-educated and intelligent population.....Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
Not sure where you get that from.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dorcus
No data for the enormously wealthy, but in 2019, £70,000+ households were the least likely to vote Tory.
Of those groups, 40% voted Tory compared to 51% who voted Labour and Lib Dem.
Given the way polls have changed you can probably expect two thirds of wealthiest households to vote either Labour or Lib Dem i guess.
Scroll to the bottom below..
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
Labour pretty steady at 1.3-1.4 (~70% chance) to win Tamworth but that will only really be people taking a stab on internal polling and obviously anything could happen on the day.
Mid Beds looks very frustrating for proponents of tactical voting to remove the Tories. Tories have drifted out to roughly even money to win as internal polling indicates its bloody close but will likely be a ~ 30/30/20 Tory/Lab/Lib split.
Probably most likely outcome seems to be 1 con/1 lab but either could win both, seems more likely that labour win both than the tories.
As for 'weak opposition'...
Tamworth is probably a seat they will need to win for a majority so is a decent signal as to their overall strength but even in 97/01 it was by no means a super safe seat so any win is good
Mid Beds is a seat Labour never win so despite this being a by-election and all the usual things that go along with that, a Tory loss there would be a clear signal to the Tories that Sunak's message is yet to cut through at all.
So potentially 'remainer' votes I guess? Not worth really thinking about as turnout changes so much in by-electionsQuote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
The opposition is weak .....2 poor leaders .....and split ....2 parties to vote forQuote:
Originally Posted by Eric Cartman
If Labour get an increase of their vote that's no good if the people who could have voted to change the government stick with the liberals and smaller parties
It's always been the problem and always will be
Weak opposition , 2 main opposition parties so vote is split , fptp voting system
If starmer does get in he needs to get PR sorted
You are just saying the same things over and over again, but the evidence doesn't back it up. If Labour win Mid Beds or come close (something that Blair led opposition did not manage in 97), it is a huge reach (/nonsense) to call them weak.Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
I would have PR tomorrow, because people would be more incentivised to vote for ideas rather than against them and parties wouldn't be incentivised to be vague when fighting an election. I thought this when the Tories were massively ahead and still feel the same way now that Labour are massively ahead.
You seem to think the answer is PR but then also that the answer is for lablib to merge into some awful beige catch all, it doesn't make sense.
I was on about the Tory candidate who told poor voters that they could f*ck off, but I take your point.Quote:
Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie
It's either or , it's painfully obviousQuote:
Originally Posted by Eric Cartman
PR and one centre and left of centre party making regular deals or a stronger opposition in a bland, if you want , new centrist party
Or we can go on as we are
Which in the current state may still lead to a conservative government , even with a small minority
I ain't going to spend the rest of my life hoping for that , if the next election is yet another wet fart I will vote green and let the centre and left argue with each other
Labour are a rock solid 14-20 points ahead in the polls and have been for some time now. It might close, it cant widen much more but the idea of a merger has never been further off the table than it is right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
Labour win both by elections on huge swings which give them small majorities in both cases. In Tamworth, it looks like votes going to three other right wing parties cost the Tories the seat.
To win both is great for Labour
But they are sure to put their foot in it at some point
And please get rid of annalise dodds and the pompous Islington woman
Low turn outs in both seats, but we're in record breaking territory now if the Tories are to turn around their fortunes and win another term. Governments don't traditionally do well in by elections, but they don't lose so many on twenty per cent plus swings against them as this one has done in the last few years and rural seats turning Labour on such a big swing like mid Beds did was unheard of before last night.
No doubt, you'll hear Conservatives saying that the results still do not show people are convinced and impressed by Labour and its leader and I'd say they're right in that view, but that's to ignore the main lesson of these and other recent by elections that the country would appear to have had more than enough of their party.
Can Sludge finally drop his ‘weak opposition’ nonsense and get behind the only party who can beat these bandits?
The opposition in this country are crap and thats why so many are saying they are voting Labour with a heavy heart and hoping we don't get a watered down version of the conservatives or tory liteQuote:
Originally Posted by Dave Blue
I am voting Labour because I want this lot out but I think starmer lacks conviction and faffs about
Labour getting some great by election results doesn't mean the opposition isn't crap it means that people have had enough of the tories
Emily Thornberry , that's her
Pompous old bat
another election where labour have done even better than expected, after the Scottish one. as it stands on course for a landslide
Spot on really. I suppose to add to the mix is the nature of the by-elections, which are often called after a death and the nature of the previous incumbents also don't help.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
Labour are absolutely on course for victory. Not by the swings here..both these seats will likely go back the other way, but Starmer is doing very well.
It's interesting how he nullifies opposition. There isn't really much criticism coming from the opposition now - he's not talking about Brexit, the more divisive cultural issues etc and he is not offering any notable change of course on the economy etc.
On the left, you will always get people who think the Labour leader isn't left-wing enough, but he is largely ignoring them. I think his biggest risk is if Corbyn created any formal or informal opposition, which I think is unlikely, but I guess that would take 10% off his vote. That said, he would probably gain half of that back in people glad to see them formally out of the party too.
He's riding the wave and benefitting from it. But that's not a criticism of him at all. It's absolutely sensible. If the tide is taking you in anyway, why waste your energy rowing?
It's not over and I do think polls will narrow somewhat but I think people just want a change of govt really, and naturally so.
Mid Beds will likely swing back but the nature of the Tamworth seat might mean labour keep that.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
Labour have stolen the Tory policy of being vague and telling people broadly what they want to hear. It's working and anyone moaning at Starmer for not 'doing more' is missing the point, detail is dangerous in politics.
I could see, for want of a better word, a 'corbynite' party form after the next election if labour have such a big majority that they have no leverage from within. I feel like one of the big reasons the Tories haven't seen a split is that leaders were required to pander to the more extreme blocks to keep their majority in the house (even more visible with Sunak now than ever before).
Have you been hacked?Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
No he's just on the ropes like his beloved tory party so he's been on the bottleQuote:
Originally Posted by Dave Blue
He will be back with more founts of knowledge from the internet once he's sobered up
Labour or Lite Blue Labour need less voter apathy, Scotland and no hiccups from here on in to have a majority, my guess the silent Lite Blue Lib's have done a deal so coaltion on the way .
Let's hope Labour dont feck up on :
Europe soft alliance.
Woman's vaginas.
Immigration tactics.
Israel/ Palestinian choices.
Interestingly:
20% swing gives Labour 190 majority with Tories at 30 seats .
If Reform votes had gone Tory they would have held on I think to both seats ?
Turnouts appalling including Rutherglen. Scotland??
Voter apathy in all these by elections is clear to see.
Do by-election always transfer onto GE .
Boris was only 10 points behind , if he was still there would it be different ?..
When that voter looks at that ballot form inna year or so and has to tick for Tory or Tory lite , what happens..
War is coming (see Maggie victory)
Ask Kinnock about expecting too just walk into government moment .
Blair was and still is the most successful Labour Lite government, Thatcher next, then Boris ask yourself why??
How did John Major deliver afyer Thatcher win and go on to break a voter win record 14 million I think ??
The country is a Conservative one and shifts its shades of blue back hand forth and avoids far left views .
I read somewhere British Conservatives is the most successful political party in worlds history ???
So it'd not complicated why we see the Governments we do .
No I've never voted Tory but a fan of Boris Libertarian approach to politics. Followed by Blair.
Be particularly interesting to hear your take on Boris' libertarian qualifications given that people were being fined for eating a sandwich in a park for half of the time was PM.Quote:
Originally Posted by life on mars
811. The increase in the Labour vote yesterday in Tamworth from the 2019 general election.
That's insaneQuote:
Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish
Mind you the place is full of right wing little englanders
Wasn't the turnout only 35 percent this time ?Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
Needed a 20 percent swing to labour from toryQuote:
Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish
23.9 percent swing was recorded
Your figure seems odd
Wasnt there a referendum on PR or keeping first past the post ? - And PR didnt win the vote if I recallQuote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
When I was younger I always thought PR was a better system. These days though I think if we went PR then we would have coalition govt after coalition govt and nothing would ever get done.
It almost as bad as going red to blue, blue to red every 10 years or so.
Maybe what we should have is one cluster f uck of a shambles aka the Drakeford Party - and put them in power for 26 years....
Yesterday 11,719 voted for Labour candidate.Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
Gen. Election 10,908 voted for Labour candidate.
Of course it's nothing other than a terrible result for the Tories, but that's not the full picture..
Christ mate, you want people to honour referendum results now? What kind of far-right neo-nazi are you?!Quote:
Originally Posted by pipster
Feels like cope when you could say that at almost every by-election, I would imagine increasing your total number of votes at a by-election is a pretty good result regardless.Quote:
Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish
I might be wrong but I think they are both record breakers or near to in terms of swing. Tamworth is apparently the Tories 55th safest seat.
I think a better justification is that it is hard to have two worse departing MPs so you can understand the disillusion felt by voters in those parts. Pincher was a very high profile scandal and made not only himself but the government look like complete shit. Dorries has a negative IQ and seems to have got into politics to help herself and nobody else.
What is good about the stuff that is 'getting done' at the moment?Quote:
Originally Posted by pipster
'I am glad there isn't a coalition, it would have taken far longer to destroy the health service as they would never agree how to do it'
Which health service are you talking about?Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric Cartman
That Labour didn't increase the size of their vote may mean there simply aren't many more Labour voters in the constituency
What worries me is that when there is the chance to give the Tories a real kicking a lot of Labour voters couldn't be arsed
Well feck em then
As you say, there might not be any more. The Tories just didn’t bother as they obviously have some shame and self respect even for Tories.Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
That's not possibleQuote:
Originally Posted by Dave Blue
Since it's you, let's go with mental healthQuote:
Originally Posted by pipster