Ho much is it worth spending in January

There seems to have been a lot of speculation amongst Cardiff fans on various social media channels that we are going to bring in a number of new players and push the boat out in January.

It'll be the first transfer window in a while where we can actually spend any money, so you can understand the anticipation.

However, despite not being able to spend transfer or loan fees in the last 2 windows, I doubt we've built up a significant war chest - I don't remember our last accounts being anything to write home about and the wages for some of our frees and loans will have been hefty you'd have thought.

Also, while we are still within touching distance of the playoffs, there is no guarantee that we will make it, and automatic is out of the equation already - if we did make the playoffs we wouldn't be the favourites to go through either, with one of the current top 4 being most likely.

I think we've also seen enough to suggest we shouldn't be in any danger of going down too though.

So say we spend a few million to strengthen the side, and that gives us a 75% chance of making the playoffs (which i think is pretty generous) - then if the 4 playoff teams were evenly matched we'd have a 25% chance of winning it, so a .75 x .25 chance of promotion.

Unfortunately I think there is likely to be 2 sides at least that are stronger than us, in that playoff mix (if we made it)
So plucking a number out of the air - say that gives us a 15% chance of winning the playoffs (again generous I think) our chances of promotion with spending become .75 x .15 = approximately 11 %.

So we'd be investing in something that had a 89% chance of not happening.

Of course players we'd be looking to bring in would also be here next season and beyond - but a lot of the players we are linked with are close to or beyond 30.

Take Kieffer Moore for example - quality player at this level undoubtedly and would definitely improve us. He's 31 now and will be 32 in the summer. He COULD go on to his late 30s at a high level like Zlatan for example - alternatively his levels could drop off a cliff anytime as with many other players. If we write off this season as being unlikely to win promotion (based on the 11% chance) then we'd be getting a full season next year, sure - could we really count on another? It might be basically 1 season that the investment will have any utility for us - which makes it basically akin to a loan transfer - and how much would we want to pay for that kind of transfer - a couple of million tops? Would Bournemouth want to let him go for that amount? probably better to keep him around where h might score the odd goal off the bench?

Of course if we are bringing in players with the potential to increase in value, younger talented players then there is a much better case to spend some money, but I haven't seen us linked with anyone who fits that profile.

I'd be tempted to make a few signings from league 1/2 for low fees to see if we can uncover any new Perry NGs.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rjk

There seems to have been a lot of speculation amongst Cardiff fans on various social media channels that we are going to bring in a number of new players and push the boat out in January.

It'll be the first transfer window in a while where we can actually spend any money, so you can understand the anticipation.

However, despite not being able to spend transfer or loan fees in the last 2 windows, I doubt we've built up a significant war chest - I don't remember our last accounts being anything to write home about and the wages for some of our frees and loans will have been hefty you'd have thought.

Also, while we are still within touching distance of the playoffs, there is no guarantee that we will make it, and automatic is out of the equation already - if we did make the playoffs we wouldn't be the favourites to go through either, with one of the current top 4 being most likely.

I think we've also seen enough to suggest we shouldn't be in any danger of going down too though.

So say we spend a few million to strengthen the side, and that gives us a 75% chance of making the playoffs (which i think is pretty generous) - then if the 4 playoff teams were evenly matched we'd have a 25% chance of winning it, so a .75 x .25 chance of promotion.

Unfortunately I think there is likely to be 2 sides at least that are stronger than us, in that playoff mix (if we made it)
So plucking a number out of the air - say that gives us a 15% chance of winning the playoffs (again generous I think) our chances of promotion with spending become .75 x .15 = approximately 11 %.

So we'd be investing in something that had a 89% chance of not happening.

Of course players we'd be looking to bring in would also be here next season and beyond - but a lot of the players we are linked with are close to or beyond 30.

Take Kieffer Moore for example - quality player at this level undoubtedly and would definitely improve us. He's 31 now and will be 32 in the summer. He COULD go on to his late 30s at a high level like Zlatan for example - alternatively his levels could drop off a cliff anytime as with many other players. If we write off this season as being unlikely to win promotion (based on the 11% chance) then we'd be getting a full season next year, sure - could we really count on another? It might be basically 1 season that the investment will have any utility for us - which makes it basically akin to a loan transfer - and how much would we want to pay for that kind of transfer - a couple of million tops? Would Bournemouth want to let him go for that amount? probably better to keep him around where h might score the odd goal off the bench?

Of course if we are bringing in players with the potential to increase in value, younger talented players then there is a much better case to spend some money, but I haven't seen us linked with anyone who fits that profile.

---

I’d add that we probably pushed the wages boat out a bit more than in the previous two or three summers in 2023.

Up to about ten days ago, I wouldn’t have been bothered about relegation either, but our last three performances have been so bad that I think we may have to think about bringing some players in next month to try to ensure relegation doesnt become an issue in the new year.

We need to stop the slide we're on at the moment by Bulut and his coaches working with the existing squad and the handful of u21s that are pushing for inclusion, and plan for next season. This is the time where we really see what Bulut has as a coach and as a man manager.

In January 3-4 permanent signings down the spine of the team would be great - if they are all an improvement on what we have, not just adding numbers. We are not going up this season - but we should have an eighteen month plan to do that if Tan is willing and able (God willing!) to spend up to the fair play limit.

Where we do need cover - like LB when Collins is off at ACON - bring back one of the players we have out on loan who have been playing competitive football - Bagan or Davies (although he hasn't played much). Better that than O'Dowda or another square peg in a round hole.

We have, in theory, the money we got back from the insurance brokers to spend. None of us know how much that was, or whether Tan wants to spend it on players, but as we were claiming £10m it should be a decent amount.

I don’t think there is going to be this big spend as some on Twitter think.

We certainly need some players that’s for sure. The amount to spend should be dependant on where we are come January,

We could gave done with the transfer window being about 4/5 weeks ago, Tan may have thought ‘hang on, we’ve got a chance here, I’ll speculate’, shudder to think what his thoughts are now.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by splott parker

We could gave done with the transfer window being about 4/5 weeks ago, Tan may have thought ‘hang on, we’ve got a chance here, I’ll speculate’, shudder to think what his thoughts are now.

---

True, a month ago planning to spend to try and hit the playoffs, now spending to steady the decline, who would want to own a football club!!!

The truth is we were always a mid-table team, but we will get over-excited when doing well, and lots of people are now panicking and talking of relegation now that we are in a bad bit of form.

We need players in as we're being propped up with loans but I suspect that'll be the summer as January can be tricky ad expensive. Personally more than players it would be good to have a bit of stability with our manager as we seem to be on an endless cycle of rebuilding the squad or playing style.

I'd be pleased two good signings in Jan - maybe Kieffer and a midfielder. I'd recall Bagan as cover for Collins (AFCON), consolidate this year, get in two or three quality platers in the summer and have a serious go next year.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue

True, a month ago planning to spend to try and hit the playoffs, now spending to steady the decline, who would want to own a football club!!!

The truth is we were always a mid-table team, but we will get over-excited when doing well, and lots of people are now panicking and talking of relegation now that we are in a bad bit of form.

---

Relegation isn't out of the question

Im not adverse to bringing in a couple of players - we clearly need a left back - however we are likely to not go up this season so I wouldn't want to see us signing 5 30 year olds and still not go up when we could be giving valuable game time to the likes of Colwill, Etete and Mcuiness to see how far they can really go at this level.

If we bring in players to replace the loan signings then not too many complaints about that

No chance of going up this season the top 6 are much much stronger than recent years. But get people in and gelled for next season which should be much weaker

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NinianOpinion1927

Relegation isn't out of the question

---

Anything is possible but I'd be more surprised if we are relegated than promoted, although we will most likely finish around where we are, especially with a few new players in and a few back from injury.

Sensible thing to do would be to start planning for next season as we'll have 3 poorer sides coming down from the PL and nobody of ths standard of Ipswich coming up

As poor as the past few weeks have been I'm not worried about relegation - every side has a blip

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Undercoverinwurzelland

We have, in theory, the money we got back from the insurance brokers to spend. None of us know how much that was, or whether Tan wants to spend it on players, but as we were claiming £10m it should be a decent amount.

---

That just covers what we were forced to give to Nantes. Hopefully we will get that and plenty more on top back when it’s proved the scummy agent who was banned organised the fatal flight. We have a shot at the playoffs this year maybe? You can see Leeds just missing auto and finishing 3rd. Now if we finish 6th then as their traditional bogey team I can see us winning, then it’s the lottery of the final so you never know. I’d be looking more to a proper challenge next season with Ramsey and Moore a bit fitter plus other new signings. Also important is what clubs are coming down? Burnley walked it last time can they do it again? Luton nothing special….

Warnock proved its about motivation and desire not money. I'd look at the Eastern European , Turkish and Greek arena they have the old desires we ( used ) to see of our own

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by life on mars

Warnock proved its about motivation and desire not money. I'd look at the Eastern European , Turkish and Greek arena they have the old desires we ( used ) to see of our own

---

How did motivation and desire work out in the PL?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYCBlue

How did motivation and desire work out in the PL?

---

or when we had returned to the championship and had a huge financial advantage over most of the division?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by life on mars

Warnock proved its about motivation and desire not money. I'd look at the Eastern European , Turkish and Greek arena they have the old desires we ( used ) to see of our own

---

Warnock is all about money and lining his pockets. That’s his motivation & desire, you’re way off the mark.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by life on mars

Warnock proved its about motivation and desire not money. I'd look at the Eastern European , Turkish and Greek arena they have the old desires we ( used ) to see of our own

---

I'm not sure I'd agree with this. I still don't have enough confidence in Bulut's management to think we should invest heavily in 2-3 high earners from Greece/Turkey who could subsequently become a burden under a different manager.

A player like Moore is a no-brainer but I don't think we should be gambling in the transfer market, it has taken 3-4 seasons to balance the squad after a heavy investment into players who were too once style/type specific.

Despite a pretty good start, I can see the whole Bulut thing blowing up in our face.

I doubt whether much, if any, money will be spent in January. Tann is already £150m invested and doubt whether he will be prepared to spend any more. Of course the club will be worth a lot more if we got promoted but even with the 5 or so players wanted by Bulut I strongly believe that will be insufficient to build a promotable team. In other words, it will take many millions to build a team capable of promotion and the money required to do this will be simply out of our reach. I wish I could be more optimistic but I can't.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 2b2bdoo

I don’t think there is going to be this big spend as some on Twitter think.

We certainly need some players that’s for sure. The amount to spend should be dependant on where we are come January,

---

Which is why our 2 month long malaise, as if we've been waiting for this transfer window, is so much of a mystery.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Which is why our 2 month long malaise, as if we've been waiting for this transfer window, is so much of a mystery.

---

Doesn’t mean we can’t add key players to key positions, just being able to offer a small fee or a loan fee surely opens up the markets massively compared to the summer? Don’t you think? No mystery for me, I think the work done in the summer under the embargo was exceptional.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 2b2bdoo

Doesn’t mean we can’t add key players to key positions, just being able to offer a small fee or a loan fee surely opens up the markets massively compared to the summer? Don’t you think? No mystery for me, I think the work done in the summer under the embargo was exceptional.

---

Maybe you've misunderstood my point.

We've spent 2 months playing piss poor football and I've heard it suggested several times that we've been waiting for the transfer window to strengthen.

We've dropped to 13th as things stand and are horribly out of form. We did well for the first 8 games after Ramsey was injured, so losing him is no excuse.

The opportunity to sign better players with the lure of a playoff charge rests on the next few games. If we're bottom half, we'll be scraping the barrel or looking for some inspiration in the transfer market. If we can be close to the top 6, different story.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Doucas

I'd be tempted to make a few signings from league 1/2 for low fees to see if we can uncover any new Perry NGs.

---

Yep.

I wouldn't want to see Kieffer Moore back at the club after seeing him playing half-arsed when the Bournemouth speculation first started.

If we can sign decent players no older than 28 on 3-year contracts. Sign as many as possible. This season is not make or break.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYCBlue

If we can sign decent players no older than 28 on 3-year contracts. Sign as many as possible. This season is not make or break.

---

iF Bulut stays true to form, he'll be looking for twenty nine year olds. The number of times he dismisses the likes of Colwill and Tanner with a "but, he's a young player" offers a clue as to his thought processes, he's much like Warnock in that respect and we might well be in dange rof going to the signing players with no resale value route.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

iF Bulut stays true to form, he'll be looking for twenty nine year olds. The number of times he dismisses the likes of Colwill and Tanner with a "but, he's a young player" offers a clue as to his thought processes, he's much like Warnock in that respect and we might well be in dange rof going to the signing players with no resale value route.

---

Exactly.

The reality is that it is extremely unlikely that we are going to get promoted this season. This January's recruitment and continued squad reconstruction would bebetter targeted at a push for promotion next season.

There should also be a bit of financial common sense. The development of the Colwills and Eli King would be more prudent than the continued use of players such as Rinhomota, Adams and Sawyers. I'd also sell Robinson whilst he has value. He's no better than OK

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Vindec

I doubt whether much, if any, money will be spent in January. Tann is already £150m invested and doubt whether he will be prepared to spend any more. Of course the club will be worth a lot more if we got promoted but even with the 5 or so players wanted by Bulut I strongly believe that will be insufficient to build a promotable team. In other words, it will take many millions to build a team capable of promotion and the money required to do this will be simply out of our reach. I wish I could be more optimistic but I can't.

---

You're right, we're in the group of also-rans nowadays, there being the start of a financial division between clubs in the Championship. I seriously doubt there was any chance of Moore coming here, and with City apparently needing to ship out players before new ones come in, it's going to be a quieter January than predicted..

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

iF Bulut stays true to form, he'll be looking for twenty nine year olds. The number of times he dismisses the likes of Colwill and Tanner with a "but, he's a young player" offers a clue as to his thought processes, he's much like Warnock in that respect and we might well be in dange rof going to the signing players with no resale value route.

---

Here's a question. This has been our transfer policy for years. How much of this eminates from the board and their desire to get to the PL more than to build a club?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYCBlue

How did motivation and desire work out in the PL?

---

Considering the standard of players we had, pretty well. We would have stayed up had it not been for that lino.

Re spending, we should be building for next season. I’d be shocked if Moore doesn’t come back, and we should be trying to put pieces of the puzzle together so that we can have a real go next season

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Here's a question. This has been our transfer policy for years. How much of this eminates from the board and their desire to get to the PL more than to build a club?

---

We had started to move away from that though, started bringing in younger players like Ng, McGuinness, Wintle and let go of the older high earners

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pedro de la Rosa

Considering the standard of players we had, pretty well. We would have stayed up had it not been for that lino.

Re spending, we should be building for next season. I’d be shocked if Moore doesn’t come back, and we should be trying to put pieces of the puzzle together so that we can have a real go next season

---

So it didn't work. Because the players weren't good enough. And that Chelsea game had no bearing on our final position. We finished 2 points behind with a vastly inferior goal difference.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYCBlue

So it didn't work. Because the players weren't good enough. And that Chelsea game had no bearing on our final position. We finished 2 points behind with a vastly inferior goal difference.

---

It nearly worked, and staying up would have been an incredible acheivement. Considering we lost that game, and we would have won had that goal not gone in, I'd say it made a massive difference as we'd have got 3 points as well as a massive, massive confidence boost rather than the exact opposite happening. Warnock himself pinpoints that as the moment he knew all hope was lost.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pedro de la Rosa

It nearly worked, and staying up would have been an incredible acheivement. Considering we lost that game, and we would have won had that goal not gone in, I'd say it made a massive difference as we'd have got 3 points as well as a massive, massive confidence boost rather than the exact opposite happening. Warnock himself pinpoints that as the moment he knew all hope was lost.

---

Agree with this, that linesman did for us good and proper.