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It is still highly unlikely but before the season started Bet 365 were offering handicap betting.
We were 18/1 to win the Championship with a +30point handicap.
I put $30 on it and for the first 7 games I’d given it up as a lost bet, but I just took a look and they’re offering a $3 cash out…
So they’re saying there’s a chance 🤣🤣
You obviously cashed out yeah :hehe:Quote:
Originally Posted by StraightOuttaCanton
🤣….A few more wins and it might get back to $30 but at that point I know I’ll let it ride.Quote:
Originally Posted by MacAdder
What does the +30 point handicap mean?Quote:
Originally Posted by StraightOuttaCanton
Add 30 points to our final points total and if it’s more than the Champions it’s a winQuote:
Originally Posted by NYCBlue
I will give you £15 for it .:thumbup:Quote:
Originally Posted by StraightOuttaCanton
I have bet , top half , top 6 and promoted
Top half is a couple of quid the other two were interest bets .I haven't given up on any of them.
That said I haven't booked any holidays on the strength of them.
Sunderland should win the handicap bet
You need to add everyone else’s handicap onto their points totalQuote:
Originally Posted by StraightOuttaCanton
You’re right… didn’t realise that at the time so I have no log of where everyone started… Suspect as you say that Sunderland would have had a largish handicap at the start of the season too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry Hill
Can’t see the cash out improving much now 🙄
If this was the bet youd have a decent chance even now. As it yeah teams like sunderland, oxford and derby will be above usQuote:
Originally Posted by StraightOuttaCanton
I've bet this market before and didn't log the other teams, I contacted the customer service chat and they sent me the handicaps for the other teams :thumbup:
Ah , I am out then....:hehe:Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry Hill
That's what I thought. Probably won't happen, but worth a punt at 18/1.Quote:
Originally Posted by StraightOuttaCanton
Statement of the obvious perhaps, but handicap bets are notoriously difficult to land. Even if you manage to identify a side the bookies have underestimated, it only takes one other team to perform slightly above expectations and the bet could be scuppered.Quote:
Originally Posted by StraightOuttaCanton
Based on the points each side has accrued so far plus the start Bet365 gave them, the current Championship top ten is as follows (Bet365 handicap points in brackets):
1 Oxford United – 50 points (+36)
2 Blackburn Rovers – 49 points (+30)
3 Sunderland – 47 points (+19)
4 Millwall – 46 points (+30)
5 Plymouth – 46 points (+34)
6 Watford – 45 points (+26)
7 Bristol City – 44 points (+28)
8 Preston – 44 points (+30)
9 Derby County – 43 points (+28)
10 Cardiff City – 42 points (+30)
Surely his bet only includes Cardiff? So let's say Sunderland win the Division with 100 points, then Cardiff need to get at least 71, in order for the 30 point handicap to lift them above Sunderland, and win the bet. It doesn't matter how any other side does, as long as Cardiff finish less than 30 points behind the winner. Or am I reading this wrong?
You're reading it wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by tforturton
At the start of the season, the bookies publish their handicap lists. Every team is given a handicap mark. Back in August, Bet365 made Leeds the Championship favourites, so they started with a handicap mark of scratch (+0 points). Next in the betting came Burnley, who were given a +6 point start. Then Luton, who were given +10 points, etc, down to Oxford, who were given +36 points.
All teams are priced at 18/1. The bet is to finish top of the handicap table, not simply above whoever turns out to be top of the actual Championship table.
You’re not going to get 18/1 on what would effectively be a two horse race if it’s just Cardiff v the league winner. It’s 18/1 because it involves the total points handicap of 24 teams.Quote:
Originally Posted by tforturton
TLG has explained how it works.
I've just worked out the final Championship handicap table based on Bet365's pre-season prices for 2023/24. Unsurprisingly, Ipswich walked away with the handicap prize. The top ten was as follows (Bet365 handicap points in brackets):
1 Ipswich Town - 108 points (+12)
2 Leicester City - 97 points (+0)
3 Leeds United - 94 points (+4)
4 Southampton - 93 points (+6)
5 Hull City - 92 points (+22)
6 West Brom - 87 points (+12)
7 Cardiff City - 86 points (+24)
8 Preston - 85 points (+22)
9 Bristol City - 84 points (+22)
10 Norwich - 83 points (+10)
Don’t let NCB see this ffs. He’ll be claiming Bulut nearly got us in the play offs.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
:hehe: :hehe: :hehe:Quote:
Originally Posted by J R Hartley
I think last season's final handicap table goes to show just how hard it is to win such a bet. City (in terms of points and league position) finished well ahead of where the bookies, the pundits and most fans expected they would before the season began, but they were still nowhere near landing the handicap bet - some 23 points short, in fact.
I was surprised to see Sunderland are only 3rd in this years table so far, Assumed they would be well clear but like you say it only takes 1 other less fancied club to have a half decent season.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
Very early to properly consider this season’s handicap table as it will obviously level out as the better sides pick up more points, but it does already illustrate that handicap betting is far from straightforward.Quote:
Originally Posted by J R Hartley
One thing’s for sure, though - as you’ve previously highlighted, the bookies aren’t going to offer 18/1 on what would effectively be a two-horse race. The handicap system is a lot more complicated than that.
Thanks for publishing the start of season handicap… (guess I could’ve looked it up 🙃)Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
The explanations make much more sense than the literal way in which I’d assumed.
Effectively I just made a $30 fun bet.
Side note … I also had $10 on Sheff Wed to finish bottom… 16/1… that’s also offering a 10% cash out. I’d be more optimistic with that one than the City bet
I’m not sure if the handicap is available anywhere online, but the Racing Post publishes an 80-page football betting guide called The Big Kick-Off a few days before each season starts. That contains all the bookies’ pre-season prices, handicaps, etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by StraightOuttaCanton
I buy it every year and keep my copies as they are interesting to look back on as the season progresses. If you need Bet365’s Championship handicap table at any point, just give me a shout and I’ll put it on here for you.
When you have time, can you post what the handicap list was for the SPL at the beginning of this season. Be interested to see what Aberdeens was and what price they were.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
Looks a very difficult bet to land. Too many variables .Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
Bit like the bet builder the bookies like to offer .
There should never be more than one selection on your bet.
Anyone who gambles or has gambled, will agree that there is no such thing as the perfect system.
There are very good systems though, and I have hit on one with football, that has shown a decent profit each season, over the last 5 seasons (decent for my type of gambling).
Every weekend, you can get odds on there being over 1.5 goals (in other words, 2 or more goals) in any league game being played.
Certain games are not worth betting on as the odds can be as small as 1/12, but on any given weekend, you will get at least a dozen games where the odds will be 1/3, or maybe 2/5.
I pick 5 of these games and stake £5 on an accumulator. If the 5 games each produce 2 or more goals, your return will be £12.50. (£7.50 profit) equivalent of just over 3/1.
If it loses, I suck it up, but religiously stick to the same bet every weekend.
You won’t ever win fortunes, but over the last 5 seasons, I have a combined profit of £2,000.Not to be sneezed at for a small time gambler like myself. A small weekly amount, that gives you an interest, but won’t break the bank.
Anyone looking to gamble a bit more, could up it to maybe £30 a week, which would obviously give you around 6 x the profit that I get.
The Brucie bonus with this bet, is it doesn’t matter who scores 1st, or who wins or draws, as long as there are 2 or more goals in the games.
:hehe: Not bad for youQuote:
Originally Posted by J R Hartley
£1,000 not £2,000. (Fat fingers)Quote:
Originally Posted by William Treseder
An average of £200 a season
They didn't have a handicap for the Scottish Premiership, or if they did the Post didn't publish it.Quote:
Originally Posted by William Treseder
However, Aberdeen were as big as 150/1 to win the league (now just 12/1) and 3/1 to win the league without Celtic and Rangers (now 1/50!).
👍Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman