Highest and lowest points totals to go down- the magic 50 points?

Off the top of my head we got 49 2 years ago and stayed up.

Birmingham went down with 50 points last season?

What's the highest and lowest?

If it's to match last season we need 18 points in last 13 games to stay up. Possible but.......

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

Off the top of my head we got 49 2 years ago and stayed up.

Birmingham went down with 50 points last season?

What's the highest and lowest?

If it's to match last season we need 18 points in last 13 games to stay up. Possible but.......

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Five wins and a few draws, it’s possible but if you targeted the likes of Luton, Stoke Oxford etc
We just haven’t done enough against teams in and around us when we’ve been at home

3 wins in the last 20 matches suggests that’s going to be a tall order to win 5 in the next 13

Our only hope is that Luton, Derby and Plymouth are worse than us in the remaining league games

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Originally Posted by olderblue

Our only hope is that Luton, Derby and Plymouth are worse than us in the remaining league games

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Not wishing to tempt fate here, but I think Plymouth are done. They had a golden opportunity to earn three points yesterday but couldn't take it. They looked clueless. They've had a brief flurry of good results, but it wouldn't surprise me to see that end now. They're a really poor side.

John Eustace will need to turn Derby around rapidly if they're to survive and I don't see that happening. I think they're pretty much done too.

Luton are the most difficult side to assess. They're on a woeful run and looked truly terrible against Plymouth on Wednesday, but I can't help feeling they could run into some sort of form soon. Big game for them at Watford today.

The bookies are currently calling it as follows:

Plymouth - 1/7
Derby - 1/2
Luton - 8/15
Cardiff - 15/8
Stoke - 7/2
Oxford - 4/1
Hull - 15/2

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Not wishing to tempt fate here, but I think Plymouth are done. They had a golden opportunity to earn three points yesterday but couldn't take it. They looked clueless. They've had a brief flurry of good results, but it wouldn't surprise me to see that end now. They're a really poor side.

John Eustace will need to turn Derby around rapidly if they're to survive and I don't see that happening. I think they're pretty much done too.

Luton are the most difficult side to assess. They're on a woeful run and looked truly terrible against Plymouth on Wednesday, but I can't help feeling they could run into some sort of form soon. Big game for them at Watford today.

The bookies are currently calling it as follows:

Plymouth - 1/7
Derby - 1/2
Luton - 8/15
Cardiff - 15/8
Stoke - 7/2
Oxford - 4/1
Hull - 15/2

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Would you agree that if any of the current bottom 3 finish above us that means we've been relegated?

Of course hull is a big game but with the other results they are getting they are going to finish above us anyway.

Oxford are only possible ones that make me doubt it. Not impossible they could get hardly anymore points. I'd have thought they'd be good bets for relegation next season.

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

Would you agree that if any of the current bottom 3 finish above us that means we've been relegated?

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I would. I know there are 13 games to go, but none of the current bottom three look like they have sufficient quality to get out of trouble.

Long way to go yet, so nothing can be taken for granted, but it’ll be a surprise if Luton, Derby or Plymouth can escape.

It’s vital we take advantage of the game in hand we have on the teams below us. Being 6 points above them should give us a psychological advantage….you would hope

I can’t see 50 points no matter which way I cut it, 48 maximum. Imperative to win the home games against Stoke, Oxford & Luton plus pick up a couple of others.

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Originally Posted by Des Parrot

I can’t see 50 points no matter which way I cut it, 48 maximum. Imperative to win the home games against Stoke, Oxford & Luton plus pick up a couple of others.

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I agree. I can't see Luton, Derby and Plymouth picking up 20+ points between now and the end of the season.

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Originally Posted by PontBlue

I agree. I can't see Luton, Derby and Plymouth picking up 20+ points between now and the end of the season.

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City on 33 now: they win at home against Hull, Stoke, Luton, Oxford and Sheffield Wednesday= 48; Draws against WBA, Preston and QPR= 51

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Not wishing to tempt fate here, but I think Plymouth are done. They had a golden opportunity to earn three points yesterday but couldn't take it. They looked clueless. They've had a brief flurry of good results, but it wouldn't surprise me to see that end now. They're a really poor side.

John Eustace will need to turn Derby around rapidly if they're to survive and I don't see that happening. I think they're pretty much done too.



Luton are the most difficult side to assess. They're on a woeful run and looked truly terrible against Plymouth on Wednesday, but I can't help feeling they could run into some sort of form soon. Big game for them at Watford today.

The bookies are currently calling it as follows:

Plymouth - 1/7
Derby - 1/2
Luton - 8/15
Cardiff - 15/8
Stoke - 7/2
Oxford - 4/1
Hull - 15/2

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I hope you’re right and the three sides below us stay that way

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dorcus

City on 33 now: they win at home against Hull, Stoke, Luton, Oxford and Sheffield Wednesday= 48; Draws against WBA, Preston and QPR= 51

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We all hope you’re right in your optimism

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Des Parrot

I can’t see 50 points no matter which way I cut it, 48 maximum. Imperative to win the home games against Stoke, Oxford & Luton plus pick up a couple of others.

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I'd definitely take 48. 46 I'd probably take also if we can keep a point a game up.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

Off the top of my head we got 49 2 years ago and stayed up.

Birmingham went down with 50 points last season?

What's the highest and lowest?

If it's to match last season we need 18 points in last 13 games to stay up. Possible but.......

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Since 1988/89 and the second tier was made up of 24 teams, the highest points tally a side has gone down with has been Peterborough (in 2013/14). The lowest of all the teams in 22nd position has been 37 points (Peterborough again in 2021/22), but this was affected by points deductions elsewhere.

The average number of points of a side in 22nd position since 1989/90 is 46.

To try and calculate the points needed is impossible, the best we can do is guesswork. Some weeks ago I predicted 45 points would be sufficient to keep a side in the division. I think that's still very possible.

I've calculated the points the team in 22nd position after 34 games has had and the points the team in 22nd position at the end of the season has had. On average 22nd position at the end of the season has gained 13 points over the last 12 games. Notice I refer to the actual position, not the team in that position as that sometimes changes. Take, for example, 1989/90. Plymouth were 22nd with 34 games played and had 35 points. Bournemouth finished the season in 22nd with 48 points. That season Plymouth gained 20 points from their last 12 games and finished 16th.

This season Plymouth are in 22nd position with 30 points. In 37 seasons, that's the 7th lowest points tally for a side in 22nd. Only once when the division has had a side in 22nd position on 30 points or fewer at this stage has a team gone down with more than 42 points. The situation changes somewhat when the sides in 22nd position after 34 games has had 31 points - here there have been occasions where 49 and 50 points has seen relegation.

More correlation starts to appear between points won at this stage and at the end of the season. As a general rule, the higher the points won by the team in 22nd after 34 games, the higher the points needed for survival and, often, the greater the number of points won between then and the end of the season. Conversely, when points have been low, points needed for survival have been lower and, sometimes the points won between now and the end of the season are fewer.

There have been 13 occasions where the team in 22nd after 34 games has had 31 or fewer points. Only 3 times has 45 points or more been needed for survival.

One word of warning - Gillingham in 2004/05 had 31 points after 34 games. They won an impressive 19 points and only lost 1 of their last 12 games. They were relegated with 50 points.

Blackburn got relegated on goal difference with 51 points in 2016. Nottingham Forest also finished on 51 but stayed up. Whatever happened to them.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

Would you agree that if any of the current bottom 3 finish above us that means we've been relegated?

Of course hull is a big game but with the other results they are getting they are going to finish above us anyway.

Oxford are only possible ones that make me doubt it. Not impossible they could get hardly anymore points. I'd have thought they'd be good bets for relegation next season.

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The Hull game is huge, it is a must not lose for either side. We get a lovely 4 point cushion if we both draw. Start Salech and Robinson, and go from there!

We're going to get saved by the bottom 3 being absolutely dire. The club should have a full review of what the hell has happened in the last 18 months, and all of our transfer activity analysed. Salech looks a real player but so many aren't just bad signings, they're bad players. I'm just praying Tan wakes up and realises what's going on at some point.

I roughly calculated a couple of weeks ago 46 may ge enough, with 48 to make sure.
Basically if we can draw all our remaining games we should be OK. A draw Tuesday would not be a disaster.
I agree, as the season has progressed several teams have looked even worse than us, so fingers crossed.

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Since 1988/89 and the second tier was made up of 24 teams, the highest points tally a side has gone down with has been Peterborough (in 2013/14).

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It was 2012/13. Peterborough were relegated with 54 points. Wolves were also relegated that year with 51 points. Meanwhile, Vincent Tan’s Redbirds were winning the league with 87 points.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

It was 2012/13. Peterborough were relegated with 54 points. Wolves were also relegated that year with 51 points. Meanwhile, Vincent Tan’s Redbirds were winning the league with 87 points.

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Now that was a crazy season. 55 points were required to stay up. Yet leicester got in the play offs with 68!

Just 14 points between promotion and relegation.

And hull got automatic promotion with 79 points. Only 25 more than peterborough!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

Now that was a crazy season. 55 points were required to stay up. Yet leicester got in the play offs with 68!

Just 14 points between promotion and relegation.

And hull got automatic promotion with 79 points. Only 25 more than peterborough!

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Current gap between 2nd and relegation is 40 points and will likely be well over 50 at end of the season.

2012/13 the year we won it really was a unique season.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

It was 2012/13. Peterborough were relegated with 54 points. Wolves were also relegated that year with 51 points. Meanwhile, Vincent Tan’s Redbirds were winning the league with 87 points.

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Yes, that was a typo. Prior to Peterborough beating us at home we were top with 44 points, while they had 13 and were bottom. We won 2 more points than they did over the last 25 games of the season.

Hull went up automatically having lost 15 games. Bristol City went down as bottom with 41 points, which has been enough for survival. Very odd season.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Yes, that was a typo. Prior to Peterborough beating us at home we were top with 44 points, while they had 13 and were bottom. We won 2 more points than they did over the last 25 games of the season.

Hull went up automatically having lost 15 games. Bristol City went down as bottom with 41 points, which has been enough for survival. Very odd season.

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Yet two of the promoted teams from 12/13 stayed up pretty comfortably the foilowing season.

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

Yet two of the promoted teams from 12/13 stayed up pretty comfortably the foilowing season.

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The gap does feel bigger now.

The 3 promoted teams last season are all coming back down without a fight.

2 of the relegated teams plus leeds are too strong for the championship.

Luton are the ones who dont fit in at all though!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Not wishing to tempt fate here, but I think Plymouth are done. They had a golden opportunity to earn three points yesterday but couldn't take it. They looked clueless. They've had a brief flurry of good results, but it wouldn't surprise me to see that end now. They're a really poor side.

John Eustace will need to turn Derby around rapidly if they're to survive and I don't see that happening. I think they're pretty much done too.

Luton are the most difficult side to assess. They're on a woeful run and looked truly terrible against Plymouth on Wednesday, but I can't help feeling they could run into some sort of form soon. Big game for them at Watford today.

The bookies are currently calling it as follows:

Plymouth - 1/7
Derby - 1/2
Luton - 8/15
Cardiff - 15/8
Stoke - 7/2
Oxford - 4/1
Hull - 15/2

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What are the bookies saying now?

Think derby and Luton have both won every game since this!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

What are the bookies saying now?

Think derby and Luton have both won every game since this!

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According to Skybet:

Plymouth 1/10
Luton 8/13
Derby 5/4
Oxford 13/8
Cardiff 13/8
Stoke 3/1

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Der Kaiser

According to Skybet:

Plymouth 1/10
Luton 8/13
Derby 5/4
Oxford 13/8
Cardiff 13/8
Stoke 3/1

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Only QPR & Blackburn on worse form and they’re both safe.

If our form doesn’t change the bottom 3 will be
City
Oxford
Plymouth

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Des Parrot

Only QPR & Blackburn on worse form and they’re both safe.

If our form doesn’t change the bottom 3 will be
City
Oxford
Plymouth

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I personally don't think Luton will carry their form on, they have a difficult run in. Derby I do think will stay up, so it's between us and Oxford currently for me and their run in is brutal.

Nightmare scenario is going to Norwich on the last day and needing Swansea to help us out at home against Oxford which is increasingly looking like more of a realistic possibility.

For several weeks I had been pretty sure 46pts would be enough.
Now it's looking like much closer to the magic 50.
Somehow City have to win 3 games. Can they do it? Our current form makes that improbable. Perhaps we may find it easier away from home.

Luton games.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Des Parrot

Only QPR & Blackburn on worse form and they’re both safe.

If our form doesn’t change the bottom 3 will be
City
Oxford
Plymouth

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But it will, and so will the form of others around us.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Der Kaiser

According to Skybet:

Plymouth 1/10
Luton 8/13
Derby 5/4
Oxford 13/8
Cardiff 13/8
Stoke 3/1

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Plymouth will go down.

I'd have thought cardiff and Oxford more likely to go down than derby or Luton on current form?

Derby have won 3 in a row and Luton also got 3 wins in March.

Lots of people in this thread thought would be a low points total and city would stay up due to Luton and derby not picking up enough to over take us.

Both now seem determined to stay up. Both also seem to have more strength than us. Our best chance of winning is late goals like at Blackburn as less time for us to fall apart. Even at 1 0 with a decent performance at half time did anyone think we were going to win? I'm sure everyone knew the 2nd half would be different.

I do think Oxford have similar vulnerabilities to ourselves though and when I heard they went 1 up at Middlesbrough I still thought they'd lose. That gives us another team to target but way it's going well be going down with them.

I don't think any other teams are in it at all.

22. Oxford
23. Cardiff
24. Plymouth

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Originally Posted by Grangenders

22. Oxford
23. Cardiff
24. Plymouth

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On current form yes.

there's still about 6 teams in it, they won't all go on brilliant runs until the end of the season

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

On current form yes.

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And that's part of the problem. One team wins a couple, suddenly people are expecting them to go on an exceptional winning run.

Take, for instance, Derby. In a form table over the last 4 games they've won 9 points. If they carry that same average through until the end of the season they'll have 56 points, and will have won almost as many points in their final 11 games as they would have done in their previous 35. Possible, but highly unlikely. If they do, good luck to them as they will more than have earned it.

Twice this season have we gone on runs of half a dozen or so games without defeat. I reckon other sides around us will have been thinking that Cardiff are hitting a bit of form and will pull away.

Looking at QPR's fixtures their next two will be interesting if they were to lose to us and then follow it up with less than a win against Oxford, they also seem to have a bit of an injury crisis so could be properly dragged into it quite quickly.



Realistically they'll beat us on Saturday and that'll be that for them.

Fifty points? Where are we going to find ten points from seven games? Only one or two look winnable, so it's going to take some sort of miracle.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Not wishing to tempt fate here, but I think Plymouth are done. They had a golden opportunity to earn three points yesterday but couldn't take it. They looked clueless. They've had a brief flurry of good results, but it wouldn't surprise me to see that end now. They're a really poor side.

John Eustace will need to turn Derby around rapidly if they're to survive and I don't see that happening. I think they're pretty much done too.

Luton are the most difficult side to assess. They're on a woeful run and looked truly terrible against Plymouth on Wednesday, but I can't help feeling they could run into some sort of form soon. Big game for them at Watford today.

The bookies are currently calling it as follows:

Plymouth - 1/7
Derby - 1/2
Luton - 8/15
Cardiff - 15/8
Stoke - 7/2
Oxford - 4/1
Hull - 15/2

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Think derby and Luton have won pretty much every game since this post. 4 wins in a row for derby. 3 in a month for Luton.

What a difference a manager makes hey?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

Think derby and Luton have won pretty much every game since this post. 4 wins in a row for derby. 3 in a month for Luton.

What a difference a manager makes hey?

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Bit like when we had 4 wins out of 6 unbeaten when Riza took over?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Bit like when we had 4 wins out of 6 unbeaten when Riza took over?

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Absolutely agree another new manager bounce is our best and final hope.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Father Dougal

Absolutely agree another new manager bounce is our best and final hope.

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Don't expect Derby and Luton to keep winning.