Any predictions?
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Any predictions?
https://x.com/bgatesisapyscho/status...426521894?s=46Quote:
Originally Posted by Wales-Bales
Strange voting patterns especially as the east lived through communism
It's like parts of the valleys hardly any immigration but they are targeted by the right who blame immigration for all the problems
Hence a high turnout for right wing parties
You’re missing the point , as usual it’s nothing to do with immigration, but your narrow minded view always reverts to the same conclusionQuote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
Quote from a tweet
This map speaks volumes. East Germany (AfD stronghold) remembers what it was like under communism, while West Germany (CDU stronghold) seems content with the status quo. The divide is clear—those who lived through authoritarianism reject it, while those conditioned by decades of globalist influence keep voting for more of the same. History repeats itself when people refuse to learn from it.
Don't be so stupidQuote:
Originally Posted by TWGL1
In west Germany it's mostly cosmopolitan
In the east there isn't as much immigration but like in some places in the UK immigration is still blamed for all the problems
East Germany has always had a far right problem
The history repeating itself is that the march of the far right leads to even more problems
It's got nothing to do with big government or fear of Europe or anything , it's the rise of the right and nationalism
The only people generally bothered by authority and government are conspiracy nutters
People are not turning to the far right because they are all libertarian conspiracy theorists .....its economic decline and the fake promises of the right who blame immigrants and target the poorer vote
Christ who tweeted that cobblers ?Quote:
Originally Posted by TWGL1
The east Germans are voting far right to reject authoritarianism .....the west Germans are " conditioned " by decades of globalist influence keep voting for more of the same
You may not have tweeted that but it certainly sounds like one of your fantasy neo libertarian post 2020 themes ��
Wait a sec, who are the communists meant to be?
20 percent of Germans voted for the far right
They expected far more than that
There is another significant factor involved i.e. still a lingering resentment in the Länder that were previously in the GDR. Many people feel like re-unification was effectively a takeover of the GDR by the then BDR - and that business opportunists from the latter plundered what they could and that many industries were shut down due to them being considered uneconomic.Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
Many such people feel like second-class citizens in BDR version 2 - and those at the bottom are always the first to feel threatened by others joining the socio-economic ladder below them.
Some of the older ex-GDR population (who may or may not be AfD supporters) perceived the BDR as materialistic, too competitive and a threat to things they previous considered as certainities in life, including their fixed pensions.
The Länder concerned do seem to a fertile ground for protest votes regardless of other issues involved, including the racial aspect and the number of terrorist incidents in Germany assigned to those from certain regions of the world.
Actually, they were polling between 20-21% so the 20.8% is inline with, if not slightly higher than expectedQuote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
For BDR read BRDQuote:
Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie
CobblersQuote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
I mean it literally is the truth, but I know you just write "cobblers" to anything irrespective of reality.Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opin...deral_election
What the far right expected ....what they wanted .....and what they thought they were going to get ......was a lot more than 20 percentQuote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
What don't you understand about that ?
Reform were polling at 16 percent for the general election ....they were cockt too and thought and expected more
They actually only got 14 percent
Hopefully even you as a far right voter can understand the difference between what was ...predicted , what they wanted .....and what these clowns actually get
You truly are stark raving mad Sludge. The statement I said earlier is absolutely factually correct. Just accept it!Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
No it isn'tQuote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
The far right , that you now vote for , embarrassingly, are on the rise in Europe but in Germany they were very cocky and the news was full of claims that the 20 percent was shy and it was going to be higher
It wasn't
Oh dear , how sad , never mind
Stark raving bonkers. You may as well be arguing that Cardiff City beat Hull 7-0 last night.Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
I would post a match report just as I've posted opinion polls and you would still argue against it and obviously go on about the far-right for good measure!
I said the far right idiots expected a bigger turn out than they actually got ....what the opinion polls or your views of what you or the opinion polls thought they would get doesn't matterQuote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
They were interviewed on German tv and radio .....we will surprise everyone etc etc etc was the cry
Just like your reform chums last July who ended up getting less than the predictions
Sludge you are just lying to yourself. They knew what to expect because thats what opinion polls are for. They expected 20-21%. They got 20.8%.Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
Obviously they wanted more, just like someone on 15% in the polls hopes it will end up being 20%. But they also know it could be 10%.
Stop being so weird. You said the AfD expected "far more than" what they got. That's just bollocks.
If you can't get the basic undeniable fact that the opinion polls were almost spot on correct, then any other analysis of the result is impossible
Seems to me that the far right parties in Germany, the UK and most other European countries get far more media time and attention than the size of their vote merits.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
Sadly, the media (and social media in general) is conducive to strong and often simplistic messages from either end of the political spectrum. Those espousing balance and moderation are squeezed between the extremes.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
Yep, they have their stories and will focus on them! Anecdotally it would seem the AfD got more coverage than the CDU/CSU who won the election.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
I was listening to a program on the radio about the witch trials craze, and it was comparing it to the rise of far right populism in the social media age.Quote:
Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie
they suggested that with groundbreaking changes in the availability of information amongst the population there are always positive and negative effects.
the invention of the printing press led to the enlightenment, the renaissance and reformation.
suddenly new ideas were able to come from a much wider range of sources and reach people a lot more quickly.
unfortunately one of the ways this manifested itself was in the witch trials that led to the deaths of thousands of people (including 5 in Wales).
moving on to today, there are obvious advantages to the amount of information we receive today in many ways, but there is also a definite down side, especially with the amount of information we are bombarded with l, and the fact that how well a message cuts through has little to do with how accurate or factual it is.
RubbishQuote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
All over social media , just like in this country the far right were proclaiming how big their vote was going to be ....to say they were cocky is an understatement of epic proportions
In the UK for your boys reform it was worse and they got 2 percent less than the polls had them down for
I know this is disappointing for you as a reform voter but tough luck
They have a worrying level of support , even on here , but they are a soft voteQuote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
You have long trumped the moderate , liberal line and if we had a strong liberal party in this country I would vote for them permanentlyQuote:
Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie
But you can't debate moderately with the majority of reform type voters as they vote on a one trick pony based on immigration and neo con right wing nonsense
So I would vote Labour, green , Plaid, independent or if there was no other choice conservative to keep out the farage nutcases
To be fair, judging by your outporings on here, you are not really associated with balance, nuance and weighing up both sides of an argument!Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
I think if you are giving any sort of nuance to the far right then no wonder the liberals rarely get more than a protest voteQuote:
Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie
You need to come up with a different schtick, old fruit. You are just in a tape loop and not really saying anything we haven't heard from you a few thousand times.Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
I really don't care what you think old timerQuote:
Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie
You are as welded to your apparent liberal slant as you think others are to being anti conservative 😉
In an ideal world your vote would count but until we either have a change of electoral process or the scrapping of the moderate and middle ground then you will be used to keep the nutters at bay
I suppose that's something positive for you to live by
It's true that there is a stunning amount of information and misinformation out there, but who is to say whether the parties in question are the witches or the witch hunters in that analogy?Quote:
Originally Posted by Rjk
To be a witchhunter you have to have the power in the first place.
I think to be honest most of what the "far right" parties want is a return to what many would view as pretty standard 20 even 10 years ago. There are some genuinely extreme right parties out there that are very different but I think that's the case for most of far-right parties the media talks about
You are just factually wrong Sludge. The opinion polls were correct. They expected 20-21% based on those. Hoped for more, feared less, but they got 20.8% which is absolutely inline with what they expected.Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
You are just arguing against fact here.
The influence of political lies on social media fed to the easily swayed and manipulatedQuote:
Originally Posted by Rjk
And it spreads like wildfire just like the Southport news
Really don't think it can be stopped
There you go again making excuses for these extremistsQuote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
At least it's obvious now
I suggest you listen to the podcasts and scan the news with interviews with these nerks leading up to the electionQuote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
They were expecting more than they got and they were pissed off about it , which is great
That being said 1 vote for the far right is one too many
You can argue the toss all day but you sympathise with reform and vote for them so clearly are not as nuanced as you tried to pretend you were
So anything you say is clearly biased these days or should I say more biased than you pretended you were
You don't seem to have the faintest idea how opinion polls work but seem to be able to find some weird corner of the internet to find a blog that backs up your idea that they did terribly. They didn't. They doubled their vote and it was entirely inline with the opinion polls which is what they would base their expectations on.Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
I suggest you stop listening to cranks Sludge. They can offer opinions but they don't change facts!
Listen you muttonQuote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
I am not talking about the accuracy of opinion polls , they are often utter bollocks
Labour were predicted 39 percent , all the polls screwed up and they ended up on 34
I am on about the expectation over and above what the German goose steppers were predicted by the polls ......they were cock a hoop and were basically saying it's 20 percent but wait till you really see what we get !! ��
And they didn't get it
Now naff off
I can't remember ever declaring support for the Liberal party on here.Quote:
Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY
You are always playing the look at me ain't I liberal and don't get involved in the main parties cardQuote:
Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie
You clearly can't remember
You daft old fruit