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Thirty five of the BBC’s football “experts” (you may not like some of them, but they all know a fair bit about the game) plus the OPTA Supercomputer and AI were asked to predict who will finish as the top four in the coming season’s Premier League and they all came up with combinations of the same four teams! That rather sums up why my interest in that league is waning on a season by season basis.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football...s/cx27rrrz2nko
Four teams? That’s more than you’d get if you asked the same question of pundits in Spain, France and Germany.
Name 2 teams in Scotland, Celtic & Celtic Reserves
Sorry, I read the post too quickly. I thought we were talking about potential winners.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
Bayern's constant titles aside, you do get a fair bit of variation in Germany's top 4. Last 3 seasons you've had Munich, Leverkusen, Frankfurt, Dortmund, Stuttgart, Leipzig & Berlin all make the top 4. France have had PSG, Lens, Marseille, Rennes, Lille, Brest, Monaco & Nice in the same time period. Its just a shame their title is so dominated by one club and their doesn't seem to be a way around that unless someone else has what is basically a perfect seasonQuote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
Edit: I began typing this prior to your clarification
My prediction:
1: Liverpool (untouchable last season, and amazing transfer window, even with the sad passing of Jota. Incredibly tough to beat.)
2: Chelsea (if there's one team that could beat Liverpool, it's Chelsea. Definitely between these two this season)
3: Arsenal (decent summer window, but always bridesmaid, never the bride for the last 20+ years)
4: Man City (transitionary year, no KDB replacement, still a threat, but definitely beatable this season)
5: Tottenham (I think Frank is a good manager, and the PSG game showed promise. Just about not being too Spursy)
6: Man United (those signings should be hits and are quite good ones in my view. Morale is an issue for this club though)
7: Aston Villa (consistent high performers recently, Emery is a great manager, have enough quality retained)
8: Brighton (fantastic business model, and there are a lot of expectations for them without Europe this season)
9: Newcastle (trouble in paradise, I think Howe gets the sack before the end of the season, I think they need to move in another direction)
10: Crystal Palace (Europe wear and tear could see them lower, but they're a very solid team that tend to get a second wind later into the season)
11: Nottingham Forest (I feel overachieved a bit last season, still a good squad, but lacking some of the key players that made them as potent, and Wood isn't getting any younger)
12: Everton (cautiously optimistic about them, think they'll do a bit better than they have in recent years, bit of a happier atmosphere at the club)
13: Fulham (it's funny how dependable Fulham have become in a few years, Silva is a solid pair of hands and they have a good enough pool of talent to easily dodge a relegation battle)
14: Bournemouth (the defence being obliterated is really going to hurt, but they still have some quality attackers that should overwhelm the weaker teams and sneak a few key wins elsewhere. Good manager too)
15: West Ham (struggling a bit recently with a few departures, but Fulkrug has found some form, and Bowen is too good to see this team get outright relegated)
16: Leeds United (I think people are sleeping on Leeds, I think if they're the strongest side to go up in years, and if they get relegated, there needs to be a look at better funding for teams going up in the Premiership. I think they're strong enough)
17: Brentford (Like Bournemouth, lost some key players, and set to lose more, and with an inexperienced manager in a cutthroat league. Will survive, but it will be close)
18: Wolves (worst team of the 17 constants for 3+ years by far, and have done very little to suggest evolution. I think it's back to the Championship for them)
19: Sunderland (they'll give it their best shot like Ipswich last season, but just ultimately outclassed by the jump to the Premiership)
20: Burnley (can we just put a clause in place to ban Burnley from getting promoted back to the Premiership for 5 years? Waste of everyone's time, I'd bet my house on them getting relegated)
I’m sure I read somewhere recently that Forest had only scored one goal in six pre season games. I think they may drop a bit further than you predict and I’m a bit concerned about Brentford- think they could go down, but, that apart, I wouldn’t argue too much with what you say.Quote:
Originally Posted by Coyote
If you asked 35 Scottish football experts to predict the top 2 in any Scottish season you’d get very predictable answers, but ask them for a top 4 and `I’m sure you’d get a lot of variation with more than just four sides named. In fact, I’d say it’s likely only in England would you get such unanimity as seen in that survey in the link I posted.Quote:
Originally Posted by BLUETIT
Good point, and European football to boot. They have good squad depth thanks to buying like 20 players a few seasons ago, but how good is that depth?Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
I agree, it is a bad look, but I also think it's a predictable set of predictions and I don't really think the top four is that stand out.
Also worth nothing that the list there excludes one of the richest clubs (Newcastle) we excludes the Europa League winners (Spurs) the two domestic cup winners (Newcastle and Palace)and also the most successful team (Man United) in that sense I think the Premier League is one of the broadest leagues talent wise, and better than most leagues in Europe in that respect.
Newcastle can't spend the money due to PSR. Villa in the same boat.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesWales
In terms of how competitive (or otherwise) the Premier League is by comparison to the other major European leagues, the following is a list of how many different winners each of the top seven leagues have had during the past decade:
England - 4 (Man City x 6, Liverpool x 2, Chelsea and Leicester)
France - 3 (PSG x 8, Monaco and Lille)
Germany - 2 (Bayern Munich x 9 and Bayer Leverkusen)
Italy - 4 (Juventus x 5, Inter Milan x 2, Napoli x 2 and AC Milan)
Netherlands - 3 (PSV x 4, Ajax x 3, Feyenoord x 2) *
Portugal - 3 (Benfica x 4, Sporting x 3, Porto x 3)
Spain - 3 (Barcelona x 5, Real Madrid x 4 and Atletico Madrid)
(The 2019/20 season in the Netherlands was abandoned)
I think the most interesting thing to note from the above is that two clubs who are arguably among the three biggest in England haven't won the Premier League at all during the last ten years. Man Utd haven't won it since 2012/13, while you have to go way back to 2003/04 to find Arsenal's last title-winning campaign. I don't believe there's a genuinely comparable situation in any other major European league.
This time 12 months ago 99% of pundits had the same top 2- man city and arsenal. Liverpool werent in the conversation. A lot can change in the premier league.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
This season good chance of forest brentford and west ham really struggling.
Not sure ive heard many say brentford will stay up?
If you looked at the smallest leagues in europe it would be far more of a closed shop i think.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
Re major european leagues- the premier league is brilliant and by far the best.
That’s not fair. PSR is just a way to keep the top four as the top four and stop clubs like Newcastle from breaking in. It also lets Liverpool unsettle Isak while preventing Newcastle from teaching him a lesson by making him rot in the reserves.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro de la Rosa
As an example of that, TNS have won the Welsh Premier League in 12 of the last 14 seasons. Connah’s Quay Nomads have won it twice during that time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Father Dougal
It all depends on what is menat by a closed shop. If it means the same team winning all of the time, then I agree the Premier League is more competitive than many when it comes to who might win the league. However, I'd be somewhat concerned if I was involved in the running of the Premier League and I saw that 35 pundits and two computers had all predicted that the same four teams would be filling the Champions League qualification places for the coming season.Quote:
Originally Posted by Father Dougal
For years, it was said that there would be six to eight clubs that were seen as candidates to finish in the top four, another six to eight in their own mid table finish mini league and then the rest would be in the relegation scrap. Well, last season there was no relegation scrap because the three promoted sides knew they were going down with about two months, at least, of the season left.
This time around , the predictions are that the top four is all sewn up before a ball is kicked - that sounds like a proper closed shop to me and I'm sure there'll be plenty of administrators and advertisers at the Premier league who will be hoping against hope that the pundits have got it wrong.
Liverpool, most probably, I would prefer Arsenal or Chelsea, at least any of those four could go on and win it, but yes, there is a drop after them.
Yeah they had a go at going pro and won it in 2020 and 2021. The following season they were down to 8th as couldnt sustain the finances. Its pretty much impossible.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
They got a massive points deduction that season for fielding ineligible players. That 21/22 season had some sliding doors moments for them though. Had they held on in the first CL qualifier then they could have sailed through to the Conference League in the same way TNS did a few years later, who knows what impact that European money could have hadQuote:
Originally Posted by Father Dougal
Knocking out Kilmarnock is possibly the greatest single tie achievement of a Cymru Premier club mind
Ludogorets have won the Bulgarian league 14 (Fourteen!) years in a row. Ferencvaros and Slovan Bratislava won their leagues seven years in a row and Dinamo Zagreb gave won it 18 years out of the last 20.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
Then you have Celtics dominance, Bayern's dominance, PSGs dominance. Typically leagues have a big three (Netherlands, Portugal, Greece, Turkey) or a big two (Serbia, Scotland, Croatia) with some very poor teams below them. A few, like Belgium, Italy, Sweden etc are often more open but it's nothing like the US sports or like rugby in the UK or France for example
It's something that Uefa should be concerned about really and a legitimate criticism of league football. The prize money in European tournaments is great and it's spread out quite well but it does create huge gaps between teams in smaller leagues who qualify and the rest of them.
In light of the above, the Premier League really is more competitive than most but I do agree with Bob it's not a good look ahead of the new season and it would be good to see more people thinking there will be more teams challenging for the top four
Apparently, the pundits you're referring to are just taking the easy option by predicting the same top four as last season and they might be right. However, the following happened in the Premier League during the previous four seasons:Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
2023/24 - Aston Villa finished 4th
2022/23 - Manchester United finished 3rd, Newcastle finished 4th
2021/22 - Spurs finished 4th
2020/21 - Manchester United finished 2nd
At the end of 2022/23, it would have seemed inconceivable that Manchester United would finish 15th two seasons later. At the end of 2023/24, it would have seemed inconceivable that Spurs, who had finished 5th, would finish 17th in 2024/25 and champions Manchester City would finish 13 points adrift of top spot.
There was a period in the Nineties that was dominated by Manchester United and Arsenal. It seemed for several years that nobody was likely to break their monopoly on the league title. Then along came Chelsea, and people predicted that they would prove impossible to beat for many years to come.
These things are not as set in stone as some people believe.
For London, Manchester and Liverpool read 'London & Cheshire'. Most of the elite footballers throughout Europe & South America have high profile totty, whether a wife or girlfriend. They're not going to want to live in Newcastle or Birmingham. Newcastle can't sign an adequate replacement for Isaac, who probably had enough of the place [or his missus has.]
Bizarre thread , but not surprising giving people on here just want to latch onto to anything and everything to complain about lately.
In the last 3 seasons the EPL has had 7 of their 20 teams finish in the top 4. Nottingham Forest, who have been battling relegation every year since promoted a few years ago, spent the majority of the season in the Champions League places only to drop out in the last couple of weeks.
Brighton, Bournemouth, Fulham and Brentford all punching way above their weight in recent times. Palace won the FA Cup. Clubs like Man United and Spurs closer to relegation than Europe last season.
4 EPL clubs have won all 3 European trophies between them in the last 3 years.
I think its widely accepted that the EPL is the most competetive of the major European leagues so does it matter what the pundits say? They set themselves up for failure every year.
I dont think the EPL need to be worried just yet.
It would be nice to see some kind of salary cap in football, in all leagues in all confederations. I think we'd all agree that some of the money spent on transfer fees and wages is obscene, this would go someway to levelling the playing field. I'm not naïve enough to think it'll happen, the super rich clubs have too much power and would never allow it.
Surprised by how many are so defensive about the Premier League in this thread. I’ve not said the Premier League is crap, it’s clearly not that, but I think it had a bad season in 24/25 with Sky casting about trying to find a game with something worthwhile riding on it on the final day of the season.
No one seems to be willing (or able?) to answer my main point that any league where 33 pundits and 2 computers are predicting that there are only 4 sides they think will fill positions 1 to 4 has got a bit of a problem - that’s 140 individual questions being asked in this survey and, between them, it produces only 4 answers. I find that amazing and I defy anyone to come up with any National league in the world where you’d stand a good chance of getting the same answer.
I’m not saying that the Premier League is in crisis or anything like that, but, after two seasons when the three promoted sides were relegated and a bit of a non event at the top last year, it’s approaching a stage where it’s going to start being considered boring if those 35 pundits turn out to be right.
Why is that a problem?Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
It's the way things look likely to go at the moment, and pundits very often take the easiest options when making predictions, but that doesn't mean to say it definitely will happen or that, even if it does happen, it will always be that way.
You are, of course, a prolific poster on this message board, so perhaps your interest in the Premier League seems exaggerated to a degree, but you do seem to moan about various aspects of the top flight on a very regular basis. Considering you're a Cardiff City fanatic, it's a bit strange given the fact that we're absolutely nowhere near the Premier League and have only ever spent two seasons in it.
I said any league would have a problem if there was a perception that it was as predictable as the top of the Premier League is suggested as being this season.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
If I’m anti Premier League, it’s probably because the socialist in me dislikes the way it mirrors modern day Britain with the money and power increasingly being in the hands of an elite few to the detriment of the many - it’s not going to change any time soon, but a few more seasons like 24/25 might well see the likes of Sky less willing to pay as much as they do now for their TV deals.
I do understand what you're saying, but I became a football fan in the mid-Seventies. 1975/76 was my first full season. From 1975/76 to 1989/90, Liverpool won the league 10 out of 15 times and were runners-up in 4 of the 5 seasons they didn't win it.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
The biggest teams in the country have taken it in turns to dominate the top flight ever since I've been watching football. Occasionally, another club comes along and upsets the apple cart like Leeds in 91/92, Blackburn in 94/95 and Leicester in 15/16, but generally it's the major players in and around the top of the table and that's the way it's been throughout my time as a fan. The thing is, that's how football is all over Europe and our top flight is undoubtedly more competitive than many.
Liverpool are 13/8 to win the Premier League this season. Bayern are 2/9 to win the Bundesliga. Real Madrid are 17/20 to win La Liga. PSG are 1/12 to win Ligue 1. Only in Italy does the championship look as competitive as it is here, with Napoli the favourites at 13/8.
I do understand the point you're trying to make, but that's professional football these days and if you'd told people Manchester United and Spurs would finish in the bottom half of the table a couple of years ago, you'd have been laughed at. Nothing is written in stone where the Premier League is concerned.
Mm, Man United maybe, but Spurs have always had a real ropey season in them for as long as I’ve been watching the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
You mention 75/76, but I’d go back a year to your first season watching the game for the most remarkable and competitive top flight season I can remember.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974%E...First_Division
As I remember it, all of the top 8 led the table at one rime well into the season and I’m pretty sure that Burnley topped the table in January. It was a fantastic season the like of which won’t be seen again
Almost :Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
https://www.englishfootballleaguetab...975-03-08.html
Spurs one place above the relegation spotsQuote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
Some things never change!
Spurs had what would have been a relegation four pointer with Chelsea right at the end of the season. Chelsea picked a very young team with 18 year old Ray Wilkins captain and were beaten 2-0 - before that, Spurs looked like going down and they did two years later.Quote:
Originally Posted by City123
I don't get what your getting at here Bob, if those predictions prove correct and it's a 4 way fight for the title that's a pretty exciting league isn't it?
The sheer number of players involved is all a bit too much for me at my age. I’ve definitely become more Citycentric as the years have gone by. There’s players getting international caps that I haven’t heard of. It does take the shine off it a bit when I watch a Premier League match and I don’t recognise the line ups. I think it’s an age thing, I imagine youngsters, who are definitely out and out City fans, still have their finger on the pulse of the top division and enjoy it as much as I did in 60s & 70s, even though Cardiff City were my team.
Perhaps TOBW has fallen out of love with the game in general as time has gone on if he’s anything like me. Years ago if a match was on, usually late night highlights in those days, there wouldn’t be a chance of me missing it. Nowadays my missus will say ‘There’s a game on, I’ll go in the other room if you like’ and I don’t bother and we carry on watching what’s on.
I reckon that’s as much to do with the saturation coverage of football these days as it is with people like us falling out of love with the game to varying degrees.Quote:
Originally Posted by splott parker
We can remember the time when a live football match on TV was a relative rarity. These days we can watch City playing Cheltenham in a midweek League Cup tie.
Yeah all 3 city games so far have been live on sky. How much interest any neutral would have had in watching us play port vale or peterborough or swindon i can only guess.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
I remember 96 or 97 i think it was when our 2nd round fa cup tie v gillingham was on tv and it was a big deal. Andy gray came. Pat mountain played in goals. Was a protest in the grandstand after the game.
God how boringQuote:
Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman
Ooh, goody gumdrops. Another multi…Quote:
Originally Posted by NinianKnight
Well that opening game was a good look.
6 goals and Bournemouth really taking the game to the Champions. Unlucky to find themselves 2-0’down and fought back to 2-2. Not one for the defensive purists but a good watch for the neutral.