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Yesterday's game was Number 23 - the halfway point of the season - and we have 29 points.
The average total needed to make the play-offs is 70, so we would need at least 41 points from 23 games.
The average points needed to avoid the drop is 50, meaning we need 21 points to stay up.
Bearing in mind that we only won 29 points from our first 23 games, and that we need 21 to stay up, shouldn't we be just a little bit worried about relegation?
no, we won't go down.
we have been without Morrison, Moore and Tomlin, our best players of the last couple of seasons, and we've had a run of games against some top teams.
prior to that we were not far off the playoffs.
I was expecting about 8th to 10th at the start of the season and I still am
10 points clear of relegation with 6 teams between us and 22nd it would need a few teams to drastically improve
Sheffield Wednesday for instance are only on course for 38
The average for a playoff place is 74 points across all 3 divisions since the inception of the playoffs. Watford are currently sitting on 40 points at the half way stage, which is higher than normal. When this happens, the team finishing in 6th often, but not always, ends up with more points than average. Sheffield Wednesday were on 40 points 4 seasons ago and finished in 6th on 80 points, though again, that is an unusually high points tally for 6th at the end of the season.Quote:
Originally Posted by tforturton
Given how good the top 6 is, I wouldn't be surprised if 6th finishes with around 78 points, pushing our requirement beyond 2 points a game. It should be added that we had only 33 points at this stage last season and managed to win 40 over the remainder at 1.74 points a game.
For the playoffs, we need better form than won us automatic promotion twice in recent seasons.
The average points for relegation in 22nd place is 47 since the 4 divisions were in this current 20/24/24/24 format. 22nd place currently has 19 points, which is roughly par for the course. A few seasons ago Blackburn had 21 points and went down with 51.
I reckon the side in 22nd will finish with around 49-50 points. Rotherham have games in hand and Wednesday have a points deduction, so the points they've won is better than average. 21 points is 6 wins, 3 draws, or 5 wins 6 draws. As bad as we are at the moment, I can't see us not achieving that. Even if there's a threat of relegation, Harris will be sacked and the board will do whatever is necessary to secure survival. Going to League 1 would be a financial disaster for them.
We will improve and go on a run , we have way too many injuries at the moment to judge anything.
I'll wait till we lose on Wednesday, before passing judgment
I suppose its possible, didn't Hull drop like a stone last season.
Think we have enough for a rather dull, comfortable mid table finish. Stranger things have happened though and if we don't pick up a win soon the pressure may prove too much for Harris.
I don't think he has to produce miracles though to remain in his position.
I can’t see us getting dragged into a relegation battle, but to make absolutely certain of that, we need to start beating a few of the bottom six- our record against the strugglers in the first half of the season was woeful.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rjk