A preview of what’s to come in the cost of living crisis?

I’m very much a creature of habit when it comes to breakfast, it’s kippers on Sunday and porridge every other day of the week and, ideally, it has to be Tesco’s Organic Porridge which I discovered about ten years ago. Being organic, it’s always been that bit more expensive, but at £1.30 when I first came across it, it hardly broke the bank. Down the years, it went up 10p a time every now and then and was £1.60 when I bought a couple of bags just before Christmas, so I did a double take yesterday when I went to buy some more and found it had gone up to £2! Are the Russians stockpiling oats as well as gas I ask myself, how else can a swingeing 25 per cent rise be justified, or is it a sign of things to come? I’m used to seeing the total cost of my weekly shop at Aldi going up, but that’s a slow, gradual climb - I’m not aware of anything else rising at 25 per cent a time, so I wonder if it’s just a one off or can we start to expect the same on other products?

In my opinion we’ll see this as a trend. There is a gathering trend of global shortages across many diverse commodities which isn’t going to go away quickly. The suppliers in my industry are predicting 3 to 4 years to recover, those include electronic components, glass, steel, cardboard, batteries, motors and others. Whilst not a direct influence on your porridge, there will be an indirect cost to manufacture, package, transport etc.

It might also be part of the result of ordinary workers getting higher wages, and I'm sure no one on here would begrudge them that!

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

I’m very much a creature of habit when it comes to breakfast, it’s kippers on Sunday and porridge every other day of the week and, ideally, it has to be Tesco’s Organic Porridge which I discovered about ten years ago. Being organic, it’s always been that bit more expensive, but at £1.30 when I first came across it, it hardly broke the bank. Down the years, it went up 10p a time every now and then and was £1.60 when I bought a couple of bags just before Christmas, so I did a double take yesterday when I went to buy some more and found it had gone up to £2! Are the Russians stockpiling oats as well as gas I ask myself, how else can a swingeing 25 per cent rise be justified, or is it a sign of things to come? I’m used to seeing the total cost of my weekly shop at Aldi going up, but that’s a slow, gradual climb - I’m not aware of anything else rising at 25 per cent a time, so I wonder if it’s just a one off or can we start to expect the same on other products?

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I hear you TOBW, I'm a massive porridge fan and whilst I get a cheaper type, it's gone up. The answer almost certainly is here:

Global oat prices have more than doubled in the last 6-9 months. Fallen slightly in the last month or so but not by enough and too soon to see the impact on the shelves. I'm not sure why, but presumably the rise is weather related somewhere?

This link should work
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/oat

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

I hear you TOBW, I'm a massive porridge fan and whilst I get a cheaper type, it's gone up. The answer almost certainly is here:

Global oat prices have more than doubled in the last 6-9 months. I'm not sure why, but presumably weather related somewhere?

This link should work
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/oat

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Thanks for that, using that along with what Des says makes it sound like we can expect similar rises for other things in the months ahead.

All I can say is that I'm glad I'm sixty six in just over a fortnight's time, so I'll start getting the state pension. I've been thinking that would give me enough to cover the rise in utility prices and still allow me to put a few hundred pounds in savings every month to eventually pay for the jobs my house has needed done to it since I moved in nearly four years ago - maybe my "few hundred pounds" in savings every month is going to be nothing of the sort?

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

I’m very much a creature of habit when it comes to breakfast, it’s kippers on Sunday and porridge every other day of the week and, ideally, it has to be Tesco’s Organic Porridge which I discovered about ten years ago. Being organic, it’s always been that bit more expensive, but at £1.30 when I first came across it, it hardly broke the bank. Down the years, it went up 10p a time every now and then and was £1.60 when I bought a couple of bags just before Christmas, so I did a double take yesterday when I went to buy some more and found it had gone up to £2! Are the Russians stockpiling oats as well as gas I ask myself, how else can a swingeing 25 per cent rise be justified, or is it a sign of things to come? I’m used to seeing the total cost of my weekly shop at Aldi going up, but that’s a slow, gradual climb - I’m not aware of anything else rising at 25 per cent a time, so I wonder if it’s just a one off or can we start to expect the same on other products?

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A few stupid questions cos that's what I am

Who confirms there is a shortage of x - is it just an excuse to rsue prices

Why doesn't nothing happen when it is found.out to be a con e.g. Petrol. A couple of weeks ago prices should have or could have come down by about 12p but went up by 2p - nothing happened except the companies say they bought it when the prices were higher yet when prices go up they go up as an immediate response

Does anybody seriously think that prices will ever return if there is a glut of a product

Does anybody think anyone in Westminster gives a hoot - we must never find ourselves with anyone in power with that much of a majority

Just my musings.....

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Originally Posted by Nobody's Rep

A few stupid questions cos that's what I am

Who confirms there is a shortage of x - is it just an excuse to rsue prices

Why doesn't nothing happen when it is found.out to be a con e.g. Petrol. A couple of weeks ago prices should have or could have come down by about 12p but went up by 2p - nothing happened except the companies say they bought it when the prices were higher yet when prices go up they go up as an immediate response

Does anybody seriously think that prices will ever return if there is a glut of a product

Does anybody think anyone in Westminster gives a hoot - we must never find ourselves with anyone in power with that much of a majority

Just my musings.....

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Can't answer most of your questions, but I agree on petrol and I think energy prices will eventually come down from whatever peak they reach later this year.

See inflation is up to 5.4%, the highest figure for thirty years.

It’s going to be a nightmare few years for any chancellor or similar around the globe as agreed this just can’t fall into place

No money for increasing welfare
Tax rises would be hammering the middle
And laden with debt from furlough schemes or similar

Somethings got to give

As fuel prices soar, there will be mass protests followed by inevitable rioting.

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Originally Posted by WJ99mobile

It’s going to be a nightmare few years for any chancellor or similar around the globe as agreed this just can’t fall into place

No money for increasing welfare
Tax rises would be hammering the middle
And laden with debt from furlough schemes or similar

Somethings got to give

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I mean the obvious answer is to increase taxes on the mega wealthy and to crack down on tax avoidance but that will never happen.

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

It might also be part of the result of ordinary workers getting higher wages, and I'm sure no one on here would begrudge them that!

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😂😂😂😂😂

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60050699

Soaring food costs and the energy bill crisis are driving consumer prices up at their fastest rate in nearly 30 years, latest figures show.

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

I’m very much a creature of habit when it comes to breakfast, it’s kippers on Sunday and porridge every other day of the week and, ideally, it has to be Tesco’s Organic Porridge which I discovered about ten years ago. Being organic, it’s always been that bit more expensive, but at £1.30 when I first came across it, it hardly broke the bank. Down the years, it went up 10p a time every now and then and was £1.60 when I bought a couple of bags just before Christmas, so I did a double take yesterday when I went to buy some more and found it had gone up to £2! Are the Russians stockpiling oats as well as gas I ask myself, how else can a swingeing 25 per cent rise be justified, or is it a sign of things to come? I’m used to seeing the total cost of my weekly shop at Aldi going up, but that’s a slow, gradual climb - I’m not aware of anything else rising at 25 per cent a time, so I wonder if it’s just a one off or can we start to expect the same on other products?

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Most businesses use the inflation card to slip a further profit increase into the mix. It's a huge opportunity for some.

But food and fuel will be cheaper after Brexit

https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/brexit-wi...defra-minister

https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/eu-refere...eap-food-claim

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19...-energy-bills/

Inflation is at a 40 year high in the US.

There are noticeable gaps on the shelves at the grocery store and The State run Liquor Stores are are massively understocked.

Forgive my cynicism but I am old enough to remember the potato shortages in 1975 which were blamed on poor weather affecting the harvest that year. The price of potatoes rocketed 3 to 4 fold. The following year supply was back to normal but did the cost of potatoes return to previous levels...did they 'eck as like!

I can accept that COVID lockdowns across the world have severely impacted everything and that things are gradually returning to normal but I cannot believe that all of a sudden economies are suddenly booming beyond pre-COVID levels causing a shortage of basic raw materials. There has to be an element of profiteering in all this.

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

I hear you TOBW, I'm a massive porridge fan and whilst I get a cheaper type, it's gone up. The answer almost certainly is here:

Global oat prices have more than doubled in the last 6-9 months. Fallen slightly in the last month or so but not by enough and too soon to see the impact on the shelves. I'm not sure why, but presumably the rise is weather related somewhere?

This link should work
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/oat

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Surely we grow our own oats here, mainly in Scotlando, so what on earth have global prices got to do with anything? If I go to my local butcher for a chicken, would his price be partly governed by global chicken prices?

It’s ok everyone Nadine Dorres is freezing the TV Licence and the 40p per week it will save will keep the bailiffs from the door.

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

I’m very much a creature of habit when it comes to breakfast, it’s kippers on Sunday and porridge every other day of the week and, ideally, it has to be Tesco’s Organic Porridge which I discovered about ten years ago. Being organic, it’s always been that bit more expensive, but at £1.30 when I first came across it, it hardly broke the bank. Down the years, it went up 10p a time every now and then and was £1.60 when I bought a couple of bags just before Christmas, so I did a double take yesterday when I went to buy some more and found it had gone up to £2! Are the Russians stockpiling oats as well as gas I ask myself, how else can a swingeing 25 per cent rise be justified, or is it a sign of things to come? I’m used to seeing the total cost of my weekly shop at Aldi going up, but that’s a slow, gradual climb - I’m not aware of anything else rising at 25 per cent a time, so I wonder if it’s just a one off or can we start to expect the same on other products?

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Try Wilton organic porridge oats..25 Kg £34.00 including delivery...

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Originally Posted by Doucas

I mean the obvious answer is to increase taxes on the mega wealthy and to crack down on tax avoidance but that will never happen.

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Try actually doing that

I'd expect a series of interest rate hikes as a response to inflation. Once the Fed starts hiking rates in March the rest of the World will likely follow.

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Surely we grow our own oats here, mainly in Scotlando, so what on earth have global prices got to do with anything? If I go to my local butcher for a chicken, would his price be partly governed by global chicken prices?

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Commodity prices are mostly determined globally by the balance of demand and supply. Why would a Scottish oat producer accept less than the global market price for her oats?

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

Try Wilton organic porridge oats..25 Kg £34.00 including delivery...

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I will, it’s got very good reviews and is nearly half the price of those Tesco oats - thanks John.

The world is having supply issues, My Brother-in-law ( who was is in Orlando for christmas ) mentioned the massive gaps on the shelves in Walmart and Target, I wanted a few bags of different M&M's, he facetimed me to show me the shelves on a few isles, it was mental, absolutely loads of spaces, then he showed me the prices, of course they have risen since I last went ( 4 years ago ) but the rises were certainly more than here

cool story eh

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Originally Posted by Nobody's Rep

A few stupid questions cos that's what I am

Who confirms there is a shortage of x - is it just an excuse to rsue prices

Why doesn't nothing happen when it is found.out to be a con e.g. Petrol. A couple of weeks ago prices should have or could have come down by about 12p but went up by 2p - nothing happened except the companies say they bought it when the prices were higher yet when prices go up they go up as an immediate response

Does anybody seriously think that prices will ever return if there is a glut of a product

Does anybody think anyone in Westminster gives a hoot - we must never find ourselves with anyone in power with that much of a majority

Just my musings.....

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We need to move away from our dependency on gas and oil. The countries and companies that produce it must be coining it in and it has an impact on everything we buy.

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Originally Posted by blue matt

The world is having supply issues, My Brother-in-law ( who was is in Orlando for christmas ) mentioned the massive gaps on the shelves in Walmart and Target, I wanted a few bags of different M&M's, he facetimed me to show me the shelves on a few isles, it was mental, absolutely loads of spaces, then he showed me the prices, of course they have risen since I last went ( 4 years ago ) but the rises were certainly more than here

cool story eh

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Bloody Brexit.

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Originally Posted by az city

Commodity prices are mostly determined globally by the balance of demand and supply. Why would a Scottish oat producer accept less than the global market price for her oats?

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A global market price doesn't guarantee the producer that price. At the moment, taking Brexit as an example, accepting less from British traders might be acceptable in the face of the paperwork mountain they face to export it.

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

A global market price doesn't guarantee the producer that price. At the moment, taking Brexit as an example, accepting less from British traders might be acceptable in the face of the paperwork mountain they face to export it.

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Note my use of "mostly". Clearly the net price is the important determinant and that includes freight, administration, insurance, tariffs etc. A case in point is natural gas in the US. It's difficult and costly to export so it's cheap in the US. Oats from Scotland, I'd venture, not so difficult/costly to sell in the global marketplace 'though I freely admit Brexit hasn't helped with net prices for goods from Scotland.

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Originally Posted by az city

Note my use of "mostly". Clearly the net price is the important determinant and that includes freight, administration, insurance, tariffs etc. A case in point is natural gas in the US. It's difficult and costly to export so it's cheap in the US. Oats from Scotland, I'd venture, not so difficult/costly to sell in the global marketplace 'though I freely admit Brexit hasn't helped with net prices for goods from Scotland.

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So there's a big element of sell local, unless you're in a situation where another market would give you huge money for your product that you have no chance of getting on your own doorstep.

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Originally Posted by WJ99mobile

Try actually doing that

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It's pretty simple, if you want to do business here you pay your taxes. Switzerland doesn't have amazon because they wouldn't pay taxes, has their economy crumbled? No.

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

I’m very much a creature of habit when it comes to breakfast, it’s kippers on Sunday and porridge every other day of the week and, ideally, it has to be Tesco’s Organic Porridge which I discovered about ten years ago. Being organic, it’s always been that bit more expensive, but at £1.30 when I first came across it, it hardly broke the bank. Down the years, it went up 10p a time every now and then and was £1.60 when I bought a couple of bags just before Christmas, so I did a double take yesterday when I went to buy some more and found it had gone up to £2! Are the Russians stockpiling oats as well as gas I ask myself, how else can a swingeing 25 per cent rise be justified, or is it a sign of things to come? I’m used to seeing the total cost of my weekly shop at Aldi going up, but that’s a slow, gradual climb - I’m not aware of anything else rising at 25 per cent a time, so I wonder if it’s just a one off or can we start to expect the same on other products?

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Good thread on Twitter regarding the increase in food prices. https://twitter.com/bootstrapcook/st...697909252?s=21

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Originally Posted by ninian opinian

But food and fuel will be cheaper after Brexit

https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/brexit-wi...defra-minister

https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/eu-refere...eap-food-claim

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19...-energy-bills/

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You do know that there has been a global pandemic on in the last two years don't you ? You cant blame everything on brexit, no matter how much you didn't like the result of the vote.

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Originally Posted by dml1954

You do know that there has been a global pandemic on in the last two years don't you ? You cant blame everything on brexit, no matter how much you didn't like the result of the vote.

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People predict bad thing will happen, others deny and call it project fear, bad thing happens, people still deny it.

Incredible.

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Originally Posted by Wash DC Blue

Inflation is at a 40 year high in the US.

There are noticeable gaps on the shelves at the grocery store and The State run Liquor Stores are are massively understocked.

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Hang on, off topic i know, the US government runs shops that sells booze?

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Originally Posted by Punxsutawney Phil

Hang on, off topic i know, the US government runs shops that sells booze?

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I know at least in some states the licences rules are that you have to be a state sanctioned store or something like that

For example, when I briefly lived in Pennsylvania in 2002 you could never buy booze in supermarkets.

America is strange for a country so fond of free markets that it has quirks like this

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Originally Posted by Doucas

People predict bad thing will happen, others deny and call it project fear, bad thing happens, people still deny it.

Incredible.

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Okay, I predict every team in the championship will lose this weekend.

Therefore when some of them do lose, I can claim I was right on those.

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Surely we grow our own oats here, mainly in Scotlando, so what on earth have global prices got to do with anything? If I go to my local butcher for a chicken, would his price be partly governed by global chicken prices?

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Yes because if he can get s higher price for the chicken overseas because of a shortage he won't sell it to you. Same with oats. The farmer will sell to the highest payer. If he happens to be in another country tough luck quaker UK

TOBW.

I saw this and thought of you..
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/foodanddri...cid=entnewsntp

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Originally Posted by JamesWales

TOBW.

I saw this and thought of you..
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/foodanddri...cid=entnewsntp

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I took Lisvane Blue’s advice and bought 25kg of Wilton’s organic porridge, so I won’t be buying any supermarket porridge for months! Really surprised to see which one was rated the best in that survey and I could try Lidls if I’m not too impressed with the Wilton’s stuff. I was a little shocked to see Tesco’s rated so low because their organic brand is very nice and it was only the huge price rise that got me thinking of a change.

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

I took Lisvane Blue’s advice and bought 25kg of Wilton’s organic porridge, so I won’t be buying any supermarket porridge for months! Really surprised to see which one was rated the best in that survey and I could try Lidls if I’m not too impressed with the Wilton’s stuff. I was a little shocked to see Tesco’s rated so low because their organic brand is very nice and it was only the huge price rise that got me thinking of a change.

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25kg is a lot of porridge if you aren't sure if you'll like it yet.

Or are you stockpiling it in case the price goes up again.