Playoffs or relegation - from our position, which is more likely?
There have been very few Championship seasons over the last 20 years where teams from a similar or lower position than us have climbed into the top 6, or where teams from a similar or higher position than us have dropped into the bottom 3.
In 2003/04 Palace were in 21st place on 25 points, won 48 points from 23 games and finished 6th. The following season Preston were in 15th on 29 points and managed 2 points a game in reaching the playoffs. Those are the only two occasions teams with 29 points or less have finished in the top 6. Wigan got to the top 6 having 30 points at this stage. Sunderland won the division despite having 32 points at this point. In terms of points gap with the top 6, only the Palace and Preston achievements had a bigger gap than we have. In short, we'd realistically need 2 points a game between now and the end of the season to make the top 6.
3 sides with better records than us at this stage went on to be relegated - Hull last season, Wolves in 2013 and Walsall in 2004. 2 other sides went down having had 28 points at this stage.
Most teams in the top 6 and most teams in the bottom 3 tend to stay there until the end of the season.
For us, we are most likely to be a Championship side next season. Based on the last 20 years ago, relegation is slighly less improbable than a top 6 finish. Both are very unlikely, but not impossible. Whether you think either might happen depends on your viewpoint of how we are as a club at the moment.
Re: Playoffs or relegation - from our position, which is more likely?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
There have been very few Championship seasons over the last 20 years where teams from a similar or lower position than us have climbed into the top 6, or where teams from a similar or higher position than us have dropped into the bottom 3.
In 2003/04 Palace were in 21st place on 25 points, won 48 points from 23 games and finished 6th. The following season Preston were in 15th on 29 points and managed 2 points a game in reaching the playoffs. Those are the only two occasions teams with 29 points or less have finished in the top 6. Wigan got to the top 6 having 30 points at this stage. Sunderland won the division despite having 32 points at this point. In terms of points gap with the top 6, only the Palace and Preston achievements had a bigger gap than we have. In short, we'd realistically need 2 points a game between now and the end of the season to make the top 6.
3 sides with better records than us at this stage went on to be relegated - Hull last season, Wolves in 2013 and Walsall in 2004. 2 other sides went down having had 28 points at this stage.
Most teams in the top 6 and most teams in the bottom 3 tend to stay there until the end of the season.
For us, we are most likely to be a Championship side next season. Based on the last 20 years ago, relegation is slighly less improbable than a top 6 finish. Both are very unlikely, but not impossible. Whether you think either might happen depends on your viewpoint of how we are as a club at the moment.
With this squad, I think we'll just hover mid table until the end of the season.
Re: Playoffs or relegation - from our position, which is more likely?
Relegation is more likely than promotion from our current position. I don't think we have the squad for promotion, our run of the fixtures is not forgiving and Harris hasn't yet demonstrated himself to be some tactical genius who can get us over performing to the extent needed.
If we're not going to be relegated this year, I would review Harris' position at end of the year thinking about my precious 2022-23 season. The very worst thing to do would be to sack Harris, hire a new managed who either dramtically changes our direction again, or doesn't have longer term plan, or isn't successfull enough so we need to pay another one off when removing them from their position. Any of that would set us back at least another year and we definitely don't have £2million to spend on a manager for 10 games.
Re: Playoffs or relegation - from our position, which is more likely?
If you look at our current run of form over the last five games, compared to the rest of the teams in this division, relegation is by the far more likely
Re: Playoffs or relegation - from our position, which is more likely?
play offs
We won't go down , its likely we will finish mid table but with a bit of luck we could sneak a top 6 spot
Re: Playoffs or relegation - from our position, which is more likely?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
play offs
We won't go down , its likely we will finish mid table but with a bit of luck we could sneak a top 6 spot
We'd need 2 points a game. That's a bit more than just a bit of luck! That's 14-15 wins from our last 24.
Re: Playoffs or relegation - from our position, which is more likely?
It might just be coincidental, but both Preston and Palace changed their managers prior to their excellent runs into the playoffs. Sunderland did the same when they won the Championship under Keane.
Re: Playoffs or relegation - from our position, which is more likely?
I expect several more months of mediocrity.
Re: Playoffs or relegation - from our position, which is more likely?
Too many points needed for play off , got enough in the bank to survive.
Think the destiny of our manager and our club will be laid bare in the transfer window.
Re: Playoffs or relegation - from our position, which is more likely?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
There have been very few Championship seasons over the last 20 years where teams from a similar or lower position than us have climbed into the top 6, or where teams from a similar or higher position than us have dropped into the bottom 3.
In 2003/04 Palace were in 21st place on 25 points, won 48 points from 23 games and finished 6th. The following season Preston were in 15th on 29 points and managed 2 points a game in reaching the playoffs. Those are the only two occasions teams with 29 points or less have finished in the top 6. Wigan got to the top 6 having 30 points at this stage. Sunderland won the division despite having 32 points at this point. In terms of points gap with the top 6, only the Palace and Preston achievements had a bigger gap than we have. In short, we'd realistically need 2 points a game between now and the end of the season to make the top 6.
3 sides with better records than us at this stage went on to be relegated - Hull last season, Wolves in 2013 and Walsall in 2004. 2 other sides went down having had 28 points at this stage.
Most teams in the top 6 and most teams in the bottom 3 tend to stay there until the end of the season.
For us, we are most likely to be a Championship side next season. Based on the last 20 years ago, relegation is slighly less improbable than a top 6 finish. Both are very unlikely, but not impossible. Whether you think either might happen depends on your viewpoint of how we are as a club at the moment.
Playoffs are a lot more likely than relegation. We are very poor and have 29 points. We could click and go on a mad run, especially if we get 2 or 3 good players. We won't, because we aren't any good but we only need 5 wins and a few draws to stay up. 6 sides aren't even getting a point a game.
Re: Playoffs or relegation - from our position, which is more likely?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
xsnaggle
I expect several more months of mediocrity.
This. Mid table, bang average, mediocre, win some, lose some, draw some. 11th -13th
Re: Playoffs or relegation - from our position, which is more likely?
We seem to drop, then win a few, then almost touch the playoffs, then lose a few and drop again. Reckon we will end up about 12-15th
Re: Playoffs or relegation - from our position, which is more likely?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Des Parrot
Mid table, bang average, mediocre, win some, lose some, draw some. 11th -13th
Quote:
Originally Posted by
goats
We seem to drop, then win a few, then almost touch the playoffs, then lose a few and drop again. Reckon we will end up about 12-15th
When you copy someone else's work :hehe:
