3 games to go - last 20 seasons (stat alert)

64 points after 43 games. This has happened only once in the last 20 years, so for those insomniacs following my thread after 40 games will know that little has changed in that regard. Funnily, the last time that happened was during our Championship winning season. Leicester were on 64 points at this point, only won another 4 points yet finished in the playoffs.

In 9 of the last 20 seasons has a team finished in the top 6 that wasn't in those playoff positions at game 43, though this has only happened twice in the last 9 years. The biggest points difference made up is 4 points and this has happened twice, though no team below 8th at this point has got into the playoffs.

4 times in 20 years has the team in 6th after 43 games not finished in the top 6.

The average number of points won by the team in 6th after 43 games and the team in 6th at the end of the season is 5.4. On 8 occasions has that gap been 6 points or more (only once has it been 9 points).

If we can manage 2 wins it would be highly unlikely that we'd be overtaken. If that did happen, it would be an excellent effort from the team that manages it.

Good stuff, Eric, thank you

I like the stats, they don't lie and at this point in proceedings you've made me quite hopeful that we'll make it

Thankyou Eric
🥰

How many times has the difference between 6 and 7 been only one point - and how many times has that one point been overturned?

All these stats are really helpful in trying to
Work our what’s required - however they will never take account of the one variable that will cock things up - we are Cardiff City!

Excellent research Eric the Half a Bee. But we all need to factor in City's ability to do the totally unexpected, or maybe just c**k it up.

If we do make it in the top 6, we'd currently face Brentford.....and we'd beat them too (even if the do have a +43 goal difference this season). Then we'd end up full of hope for a final and probably lose to a last minute handball goal to Forest or Fulham.

Or maybe surprise us all by going up and talking the PL by storm.......sorry got carried away a bit then. But think of the money we'd save by not being able to go to Wembley.

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Originally Posted by Toadstool

How many times has the difference between 6 and 7 been only one point - and how many times has that one point been overturned?

All these stats are really helpful in trying to
Work our what’s required - however they will never take account of the one variable that will cock things up - we are Cardiff City!

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There have been 10 occasions where the team or teams below the playoffs have been within 1 point of 6th after 43 games. Perhaps surprisingly, only 2 of those teams in 6th have missed out on the playoffs. There have only been 2 other occurrances of teams being a point below the playoffs after 43 games finishing in the top 6. 6 times out of 10 those sides have missed out.

That means there are 5 occasions where teams have made up a greater gap than 1 point.

Of the sides that won a playoff spot, 3 won 9 points from their last 3, 4 won 7 points, 1 won 6 points and another won only 4 (West Ham in 2005 when Reading lost their last 3 games). Generally teams don't stumble their way into the playoffs from outside.

Needless to say there is usually an assistance from the team that misses out in terms of their form. Reading, as mentioned, won no points from their last 3. One team won 1 point (guess who?), 2 won 2 points, 2 won 3 points, 2 won 4 points and 1 team won 6 points (Burnley in 2002, they were in 4th after 43 games though 2 points separated 4th and 8th, they lost out on goal difference of 1).

Goal difference has made the difference only twice in 20 years. Burnley, as mentioned above, are one who missed out. No prizes for guessing the other.

In terms of point gap after 43 games between the team that finished top 6 and the team that missed out, on 3 occasions that has been 1 point, twice it's been 2 points, on 3 occasions it's been 4 points. The biggest collapse was a gap of 8 points. Again, answers on a post card for the identity of that team.....

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

There have been 10 occasions where the team or teams below the playoffs have been within 1 point of 6th after 43 games. Perhaps surprisingly, only 2 of those teams in 6th have missed out on the playoffs. There have only been 2 other occurrances of teams being a point below the playoffs after 43 games finishing in the top 6. 6 times out of 10 those sides have missed out.

That means there are 5 occasions where teams have made up a greater gap than 1 point.

Of the sides that won a playoff spot, 3 won 9 points from their last 3, 4 won 7 points, 1 won 6 points and another won only 4 (West Ham in 2005 when Reading lost their last 3 games). Generally teams don't stumble their way into the playoffs from outside.

Needless to say there is usually an assistance from the team that misses out in terms of their form. Reading, as mentioned, won no points from their last 3. One team won 1 point (guess who?), 2 won 2 points, 2 won 3 points, 2 won 4 points and 1 team won 6 points (Burnley in 2002, they were in 4th after 43 games though 2 points separated 4th and 8th, they lost out on goal difference of 1).

Goal difference has made the difference only twice in 20 years. Burnley, as mentioned above, are one who missed out. No prizes for guessing the other.

In terms of point gap after 43 games between the team that finished top 6 and the team that missed out, on 3 occasions that has been 1 point, twice it's been 2 points, on 3 occasions it's been 4 points. The biggest collapse was a gap of 8 points. Again, answers on a post card for the identity of that team.....

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Thanks for reminding us all, Eric. 😠

I’d be interested to know, if you know Eric, the likelihood of Brentford slipping up in play-offs. They are on a great run, but good runs come to an end! Are there any stats fir in form teams blowing it in play-offs?

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Originally Posted by Former Labour leader

Thanks for reminding us all, Eric. 😠

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I think it stands as the biggest collapse and failure to get a playoff place ever. However Preston's remarkable run deserves praise as well. Any slip up from them and we'd have still been in the playoffs.

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Originally Posted by cityhammer

I’d be interested to know, if you know Eric, the likelihood of Brentford slipping up in play-offs. They are on a great run, but good runs come to an end! Are there any stats fir in form teams blowing it in play-offs?

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There's a good site called soccerstats.com where I can find the form of teams at the end of the season. It only goes back as far as 2011/12 unfortunately, but it paints a decent enough picture. It shows the points per game for the last 8 fixtures. As this is an immense time saver, I'll stick with that!!

4 times in the last 8 seasons has seen the team with the best form over the last 8 games of the season win the playoffs. It's happened the last 2 seasons, where both Villa and Fulham were easily the in the best form of all playoff sides.

In 2017 Huddersfield were badly out of form and faced a Sheffield Wednesday side in excellent form. They managed two draws and won on penalties. Another 0-0 draw against Reading in the final saw another penalty shoot out and Huddersfield were promoted. In 2003 we won the playoffs and only scored 2 goals. Here, Huddersfield won the playoffs by scoring only 1 goal. Even that was an own goal.

In 2014 Derby were the form team but lost the playoff final through a last minute Zamora winner.

In 2013 Crystal Palace were in dire form yet overcame form side and rivals Brighton over 2 legs.

Last season Leeds looked nailed on for automatic promotion until the end of season collapse, which saw them humbled by Derby.

Over those 8 seasons, 10 sides in better form won their playoff semi, 6 lost. Of the finals, 5 sides in better form won, 3 lost.

Basically, there's a slight advantage in being in better form going into the playoffs, if the last 8 seasons is representative of the rest. However having home advantage in the first leg can be of more benefit than in the second leg if you can get a result. Suppose we play Brentford. Pinch a narrow win at home, force them to attack us in the second leg and play on the break. That is entirely possible. Of course, we could also get well beaten at home and need to chase the game in the second leg, which wouldn't suit us at all. There's also our home hoodoo, where we've only once won a playoff tie at home.

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Originally Posted by cityhammer

I’d be interested to know, if you know Eric, the likelihood of Brentford slipping up in play-offs. They are on a great run, but good runs come to an end! Are there any stats fir in form teams blowing it in play-offs?

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There's also a different scenario. West Brom host Fulham this evening. Fulham win that and Brentford have the chance of getting into the top 2. West Brom are in ok form but seem to be spluttering a bit. If they were to miss out on automatic, that might affect them in the playoffs. Quite often if a team falls out of the automatic promotion positions they miss out in the playoffs.

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

I think it stands as the biggest collapse and failure to get a playoff place ever. However Preston's remarkable run deserves praise as well. Any slip up from them and we'd have still been in the playoffs.

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When you read the way you’ve set it out in numbers that collapse (or Preston’s run) seems even more remarkable than I remember it.

Thanks for putting this all on the page Eric, interesting stuff!

Immense research Eric, many thanks for your time and patience to do this

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Originally Posted by Kind of Blue

When you read the way you’ve set it out in numbers that collapse (or Preston’s run) seems even more remarkable than I remember it.

Thanks for putting this all on the page Eric, interesting stuff!

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Thanks. Collapses aren't uncommon, neither are winning runs, but in the context of a playoff spot it was a rarity.

What makes it even worse is that, with 4 games to go we were only a few points off automatic promotion. Had we gone up automatically it would have been deserved. Instead we allowed a 12 goal swing at Preston to cut the gap from 11 points to 8. We only just got a point at Charlton after a dismal display where we came back from 2-0 down. We were deservedly battered by Ipswich in Ninian Park's last ever game and the gap was 3 points. There was a sense of inevitability that we'd lose our last game.

I got married the day before that game at Hillsborough. We'd planned honeymoon dates around the playoffs.....

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Thanks. Collapses aren't uncommon, neither are winning runs, but in the context of a playoff spot it was a rarity.

What makes it even worse is that, with 4 games to go we were only a few points off automatic promotion. Had we gone up automatically it would have been deserved. Instead we allowed a 12 goal swing at Preston to cut the gap from 11 points to 8. We only just got a point at Charlton after a dismal display where we came back from 2-0 down. We were deservedly battered by Ipswich in Ninian Park's last ever game and the gap was 3 points. There was a sense of inevitability that we'd lose our last game.

I got married the day before that game at Hillsborough. We'd planned honeymoon dates around the playoffs.....

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Bloody hell. I didn’t go to Deepdale but I can remember where I was even now when listening to it on the radio with earphones (doing a shop at the Sainsbury’s off Newport road, haha). Was meant to go to the Valley but my mate’s car packed in earlier in the day. I was so frustrated by the performance at NP after that Ipswich game I couldn’t bring myself to stay after the final whistle, thinking even then against better judgement that “we’ll have one last game here surely”...

Looking back on it now it all feels rather fitting somehow for our last season there.