League positions before a South Wales derby

Much has already been made of the fact that this derby sees Cardiff and Swansea placed 20th and 19th in the table respectively. Has this ever happened before? The answer at a pedantic level is no, but there have been a few occasions where both sides have been near the foot of the table only a few places apart.

It might be interesting to note that this will be the first time a derby has been staged where both sides have the same number of points (bar 1930 and 1957 where this was the opening fixture of the season).

Every occurrence of us being 18th or lower and within 3 places of Swansea happened between 1983 and 1998. This may come as no surprise as these years were generally grim for both sides.

In 1985/86, for both derbies we were 22nd and Swansea were in 23rd. Both home sides won the league derby. Swansea won a Freight Rover cup tie at Ninian Park. We also won 1 leg each in the league cup against each other that season.

On Easter bank holiday 1990 we were 21st, 2 places and 3 points behind Swansea. They won 2-0 at Ninian Park.

3 days before Christmas 1993 we were 18th and 2 points behind Swansea going into a home fixture. We won 1-0.

In March 1998 there was 1 point and 2 places separating us for a trip to the Vetch. It finished 1-1.

I decided to look at whether being in a higher position going into the derby made any difference. It could be argued that it does.

Cardiff have been ahead of Swansea in the table 37 times going into a derby. Cardiff have won 12, Swansea have won 16.

Swansea have been ahead of Cardiff in the table 28 times going into a derby. Swansea have won 10, Cardiff have won 11.

This is the overall win rate in the South Wales derby (not including Welsh cup etc games)
Cardiff City: 32.9%
Swansea City: 41.4%

When Cardiff are ahead in the table:
Cardiff City: 32.4%
Swansea City: 43.2%

When Swansea are ahead in the table:
Cardiff City: 39.3%
Swansea City: 35.7%

Games at Cardiff:

Swansea overall win rate: 25.7%
When Cardiff are ahead in the table: 26.3%
Cardiff loss rate when Swansea are ahead in the table: 21.4%

Games at Swansea:

Cardiff overall win rate: 20%
When Swansea are ahead in the table: 35.7%
Swansea loss rate when Cardiff are ahead in the table: 11.1%

It's noticeable how the team placed lower in the table is able to rise for the occasion of the derby and gets better results than normal. At Swansea, it's incredible to consider that we've gone there 18 times ahead of them in the table and only won twice. Similarly, when Swansea have come to us above us in the table, out of 14 occasions, they've won 3.

There is no correlation between how far apart the two teams are in the table, either. In April 1984 we were 24 points above them as they battled against relegation. We lost 3-2 at the Vetch. In 1998 we were in 5th, 10 points ahead of 18th placed Swansea for an away game. We lost 2-1. However, in the late 80s there were two occasions where we were in or near the bottom 4, some distance behind Swansea, yet won twice in the league. Last season we were 13 points and 6 places behind them but won 1-0 at the Liberty.

Arguably our best chance of winning at Swansea is when we're behind them in the table. Maybe it's something to do with over confidence when sides are ahead in the table, yet when sides are behind the other, there's a greater determination to get one over on the other.

But what does it allllllll meeeeeeeeeaaaaaannn

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Originally Posted by dembethewarrior

But what does it allllllll meeeeeeeeeaaaaaannn

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Read it and you might find out. :thumbup:

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Much has already been made of the fact that this derby sees Cardiff and Swansea placed 20th and 19th in the table respectively. Has this ever happened before? The answer at a pedantic level is no, but there have been a few occasions where both sides have been near the foot of the table only a few places apart.

It might be interesting to note that this will be the first time a derby has been staged where both sides have the same number of points (bar 1930 and 1957 where this was the opening fixture of the season).

Every occurrence of us being 18th or lower and within 3 places of Swansea happened between 1983 and 1998. This may come as no surprise as these years were generally grim for both sides.

In 1985/86, for both derbies we were 22nd and Swansea were in 23rd. Both home sides won the league derby. Swansea won a Freight Rover cup tie at Ninian Park. We also won 1 leg each in the league cup against each other that season.

On Easter bank holiday 1990 we were 21st, 2 places and 3 points behind Swansea. They won 2-0 at Ninian Park.

3 days before Christmas 1993 we were 18th and 2 points behind Swansea going into a home fixture. We won 1-0.

In March 1998 there was 1 point and 2 places separating us for a trip to the Vetch. It finished 1-1.

I decided to look at whether being in a higher position going into the derby made any difference. It could be argued that it does.

Cardiff have been ahead of Swansea in the table 37 times going into a derby. Cardiff have won 12, Swansea have won 16.

Swansea have been ahead of Cardiff in the table 28 times going into a derby. Swansea have won 10, Cardiff have won 11.

This is the overall win rate in the South Wales derby (not including Welsh cup etc games)
Cardiff City: 32.9%
Swansea City: 41.4%

When Cardiff are ahead in the table:
Cardiff City: 32.4%
Swansea City: 43.2%

When Swansea are ahead in the table:
Cardiff City: 39.3%
Swansea City: 35.7%

Games at Cardiff:

Swansea overall win rate: 25.7%
When Cardiff are ahead in the table: 26.3%
Cardiff loss rate when Swansea are ahead in the table: 21.4%

Games at Swansea:

Cardiff overall win rate: 20%
When Swansea are ahead in the table: 35.7%
Swansea loss rate when Cardiff are ahead in the table: 11.1%

It's noticeable how the team placed lower in the table is able to rise for the occasion of the derby and gets better results than normal. At Swansea, it's incredible to consider that we've gone there 18 times ahead of them in the table and only won twice. Similarly, when Swansea have come to us above us in the table, out of 14 occasions, they've won 3.

There is no correlation between how far apart the two teams are in the table, either. In April 1984 we were 24 points above them as they battled against relegation. We lost 3-2 at the Vetch. In 1998 we were in 5th, 10 points ahead of 18th placed Swansea for an away game. We lost 2-1. However, in the late 80s there were two occasions where we were in or near the bottom 4, some distance behind Swansea, yet won twice in the league. Last season we were 13 points and 6 places behind them but won 1-0 at the Liberty.

Arguably our best chance of winning at Swansea is when we're behind them in the table. Maybe it's something to do with over confidence when sides are ahead in the table, yet when sides are behind the other, there's a greater determination to get one over on the other.

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Does your wife ever complain you are spending more time on the computer than with her and the family ?

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Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY

Does your wife ever complain you are spending more time on the computer than with her and the family ?

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No. This took me about 30 minutes this morning when she was working from home and I had a bit of spare time.

Thanks for taking the time to do this mate. Interesting read, I still haven't got a clue what will happen in the match though 🤣

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Originally Posted by UNDERHILL1927

Thanks for taking the time to do this mate. Interesting read, I still haven't got a clue what will happen in the match though ��

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Same here. I reckon it'll be another underwhelming derby, like the last few.

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

No. This took me about 30 minutes this morning when she was working from home and I had a bit of spare time.

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She soon will

This is a daily occurance

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Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY

She soon will

This is a daily occurance

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Feck me, you're a marriage guidance counsellor now! :hehe:

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Same here. I reckon it'll be another underwhelming derby, like the last few.

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I'll take a 1-0 win. 👏

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Feck me, you're a marriage guidance counsellor now! :hehe:

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I met your wife once outside the grandstand

Let that be a warning

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Originally Posted by UNDERHILL1927

I'll take a 1-0 win. 👏

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They will give us a leathering

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Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY

They will give us a leathering

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Please no Sludge

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Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY

They will give us a leathering

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They will….4-0 I reckon.

This game has got 0-0 written all over it - which means it will be 7-6 to us.

I wonder, as we may have a couple who have come through the ranks, Bowen, Colwill that it might just give us a fillip.
Certainly Swansea have benefited before in having home grown players who really get the derby match.

Ps thankyou Eric for taking the time to do the research.
Pornhub will be missing you.😀

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Originally Posted by Former Labour leader

Ps thankyou Eric for taking the time to do the research.
Pornhub will be missing you.😀

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Yes, I haven't contributed on there for weeks now.

I think MM will really be up for this game what better way to turn the fans.

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Originally Posted by Whisperer

I think MM will really be up for this game what better way to turn the fans.

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He ought to be. Surely another defeat will be his last match in charge!