Originally Posted by
Keyser Soze
Mehmet Dalman has always struck me as a Jekyll and Hyde of a board member. Clearly a smooth operator, wealthy, and well connected, he appears a good option for a board member. He can rightfully take credit for securing Vincent Tan’s investment in the club at a time when the future was deeply uncertain. Although not universally popular, it bought us time. And a promotion. When Dalman targets the coach he wants he is often successful in getting their targets. Investment bankers are pretty good at getting results. But the undisputable fact is that this manager recruitment choices have been nothing short of a spectacular failure.
Dalman – Ed Woodward’s Brother-In-Arms?
The 63 year old former investment banker has cut a nice education and a nice career for himself. Schooled at the London School of Economics. He has worked at Credit Lyonnais, Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, Nikko Securities, and Commerzbank. Prestigious investment banks by any standard. Then Cardiff City chairman since 2012. It is reasonable to draw comparisons with Ed Woodward at Manchester United. Another successful investment banker who advised United on the Glazer takeover, only to then bag himself a board role. Since then, Woodward has presided over the downturn and failed managerial selections since the departure of Alex Ferguson.
What do both have in common? Both have a poor track record of selecting managers during their reign. The mindset of an investment banker is that anything can be done, and anyone is capable of achieving it. Unfortunately, both have failed to learn the lesson that business achievements isn’t the same as selecting a correct manager to handle your players. I know from experience that a lack of self-awareness is so often the investment banker’s blind spot, and we see it in both Dalman and Woodward. They are also both typical of investment bankers. Only concerned with the short-term results. Succession planning and long term foundations are often so removed from their psyche, yet right now this is precisely what Cardiff City needs.
Dalman - His failed track record with manager recruitment
In chronological order, these are the managers Dalman was tasked with seeking or recruiting. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. Danny Gabbidon & Scott Young. Russell Slade. Paul Trollope. Neil Warnock. Neil Harris. Mick McCarthy. I make it seven managers, if you include Gabbidon and Young as one. Six were failures. Only Neil Warnock can be called a success, with his promotion. All in all, that is 6 poor decisions out of a possible 7. That is a 14% success rate. Any investment banker or trader knows that you need 60% good decisions to be regarded as a success. 70% is excellent. In his former industry of investment banking, a 14% success rate would see him fired and without a good reference. That gives content to his decision making in this area of his responsibility. If these have not been his sole decisions, then he needs to wake up and sack who has advised him along the way. But the responsibility rests with him. He needs to change it up.
The Swansea Way – Time to learn
Let’s make no bones about it. Many claim to laugh at their strange ways, their juvenile accent, their insecurity complex and caveman-like outlook on life. Many would say we hate them. But that rivalry aside and give them credit. They have a relatively superb record of manager recruitment, given their financial straightjackets over the years. In the 14 years since 2007 during their rise to the top from the dregs of League Two they have recruited Roberto Martinez, Paulo Sousa, Brendan Rodgers, Michael Laudrup, Garry Monk, Alan Curtis, Francesco Guidolin, Bob Bradley, Paul Clement, Carlos Carvahal, Graham Potter, Steve Cooper and Russell Martin. Not a whopping list of over-achievers, but imaginative, stylistic and at least 50% of them were good. 50% is the sort of minimum success rate Dalman would be used to in his old job, but his 14% hit rate is nowhere near. With restricted budgets, a mostly consistent style of coaching, it reduced Swansea's need to churn players that didn’t fit the style. By contrast, Cardiff have switched from managers needing experience players, then a focus on youth, then long ball, then football. From old managers to young managers. A completely incoherent approach, resulting in player churn, style churn as well as manager churn. There have been more "ins" and "outs" in our club than Katie Price's underwear, with eye-popping agent commissions thrown down the drain. Even a sandcastle looks rock solid compared to our continuous flip-flop approach.
Criteria for the next manager / coach
This is where Dalman needs to wise up., and fast. Before he plays musical chairs with his next coach he needs to stop, think and do a few things that Swansea did.
1. Develop youth. This makes sense with a tight budget. Big transfer fees do not make sense unless there are big transfer sales. Stop signing £5m carthorses with little discernible skill.
2. To enable youth to have a pathway to the seniors, there needs to be a club style that is consistent from the Under 23s to the seniors to take advantage of that youth potential. Same language, same system, same shortlist of preferred formations.
3. Ensure the Under 23 style is consistent all the way down the age grades so when they move up an age grade, it all feels the same
4. Select a manager that will come in and play the emerging Under 23s
5. The coach needs to also want to play that same style, and it should be his background
6. Ensure the new manager can recruit cheaply the same style players as the Under 23s, but in the 25-28 age range. Because many of our existing players have the first touch of a horse. Some need to be shipped out, and cheap replacements in who can pass the ball.
Also, in the meantime Dalman needs to keep a shortlist of coaches that are on his radar so if the manager fails he already knows who fits the bill, and can move quickly. This is also what Swansea did well on both a player and manager front. They didn’t wait for events to happen. They already had like-for-like replacements for players and coaches way before they left. It is just basic succession planning – something investment bankers don’t have a tendency to think about as it is beyond the next financial quarter’s horizon.
With a little self-reflection, self-awareness and humility about mistakes this can be done. Dalman certainly has the connections, work ethic and the brains. But will it be done? I doubt it. Self-reflection, self-awareness and humility are traits that are often quite a lot to ask from a former investment banker. Just ask Ed Woodward.
