21/22 Squad - better or worse than 20/21 ?

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Originally Posted by surge

Giles might not surpass Ojo's ceiling, the 10 or less games where he was hot, but I still expect his average performance to be better and therefore over the course of a season being a better player for us...unless you rank Ojo's productivity in short periods of time as more important than an expected better average of performance over course of season because points win prizes rather than performances?

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Weather he was hot or not. Did he get those figures?

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Originally Posted by RonnieBird

I certainly hope so. It’s possible too.
With youngsters and even with free transfers you never know for certain. Common sense should tell you that we’re pushing our luck here though and we have no fallback position.

I’ll be the most delighted man here if they all shine but my experience tells me that you’ve got to introduce ALL new players gradually , especially young kids and those who’ve moved up one or two leagues. How many players out of eleven do you need going to pieces before it’s a duck shoot ?
It can happen to experienced professionals occasionally as we saw against QPR and Sheffield Wednesday. Of course it can , but what the **** do we do if it starts sliding with all these experimental players and kids ? It’d ruin their own confidence and progress as well you know, and he’s got no back up to save them and the club IF that starts happening.

It’s NOT professional to take massive chances without a plan B, but please don’t think I WANT it to go tits up. Like everyone here I want them to succeed - I’m just screaming at them not to chuck the spare tyare out in order to take an extra crate of beer.

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We are not going to have a side full of kids.

Smithies Flint Morrison Nelson Ralls Pack Vaulks Moore Bacuna Murphy are all going to play regularly add in an experienced campaigner like Collins. Giles and Bagan are the 2 likely young players.

Predict the 5 nil hammerings all you like then look at the Derby squad or even Pearceys concerns at Reading. Swansea have lost their manager and the spine of their side.

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Originally Posted by AfricanBluebird

Agreed. All 4 would walk into our side.

Also, as an aside, has anyone not noticed how poor Ng has been this pre-season.

I hope it is because he is still recovering from COVID, because he has been ponderous and slow, or perhaps more cynically, they are the signs that prove he has now become properly embedded into our system.

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Wilson without a doubt.
Bennett would probably start but if rather Bagan given a chance.
Ojo I don't think would walk in, he was in and out a lot, tbh I wasn't massively impressed.
Turu was never fit so I don't think we can be to concerned about him missing.

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Originally Posted by 2b2bdoo

Wilson without a doubt.
Bennett would probably start but if rather Bagan given a chance.
Ojo I don't think would walk in, he was in and out a lot, tbh I wasn't massively impressed.
Turu was never fit so I don't think we can be to concerned about him missing.

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I agree about Bennett. if he was fit he'd definitely make us stronger, but him not being here gives game time to Bagan and in a year or twos time that could be paying dividends.
we aren't going up this season so it's about developing players for the future, developing our playing style etc

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Originally Posted by Hilts

We are not going to have a side full of kids.

Smithies Flint Morrison Nelson Ralls Pack Vaulks Moore Bacuna Murphy are all going to play regularly add in an experienced campaigner like Collins. Giles and Bagan are the 2 likely young players.

Predict the 5 nil hammerings all you like then look at the Derby squad or even Pearceys concerns at Reading. Swansea have lost their manager and the spine of their side.

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I read the 5 nil hammerings as poetic license. I think we're going to struggle no matter what. It's all a bit messy for me and when I see the list of names you've just posted I physically slump with indifference thinking of their performances last season. I'm much more of a radical person e.g. I'm probably the only person who thinks we've needed a new captain since relegation. I'd have given the captaincy to Moore this season and built the team around him. One of my biggest concerns is no manager has managed to get him to conserve his energy and he knackers himself out in matches way too often. Give him the Captain's armband and responsibility and let him lead from the front. I know, it's crazy talk.

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Originally Posted by Citizen's Nephew

I read the 5 nil hammerings as poetic license. I think we're going to struggle no matter what. It's all a bit messy for me and when I see the list of names you've just posted I physically slump with indifference thinking of their performances last season. I'm much more of a radical person e.g. I'm probably the only person who thinks we've needed a new captain since relegation. I'd have given the captaincy to Moore this season and built the team around him. One of my biggest concerns is no manager has managed to get him to conserve his energy and he knackers himself out in matches way too often. Give him the Captain's armband and responsibility and let him lead from the front. I know, it's crazy talk.

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I believe we will be mid table. Those players are experienced championship pros some with promotion under their name.

To suggest as Ronnie does that 5 nil hammerings are to be expected is ridiculous.

relegation seasons apart.

when was the last time we went into a new season obviously weaker on paper than the previous one?

probably one of the Russ Slade years

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Originally Posted by surge

I would cautiously suggest that Ojo figures above are an example of where stats can be misleading. My memory suggests he was very hot for a few games (10 or less) but very average in short bursts or missing completely for rest. Now that might be what was going on around him more than anything but I understand he started well and faded at Rangers too.

Over 46 games I expect Giles will be able to replace Ojo and moreso so Wilson will be the big miss in an attacking sense because think it's unlikely Giles does that well. But Ojo did allow some attention away from Wilson on reputation alone and not sure we have that now - the need for depth now seemingly missing. Wilson and Ojo also did a lot of hard work during our good run pre-Christmas as well.

Regarding full-backs for first half of last season we had Bacuna and Bennett. If NG, Sang and Bagan can do better than that combination then even though Bennett appears to be a big miss, us being exposed on one side, that doesn't become different til second half of the season.

We were much better than midtable sides, surprisingly bad against bottom sides and poor (a few one off days aside) against the best in the division last year. Midtable sides might get closer to us but we should be better against bottom sides so still waiting to hear how we're much worse than last year.

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If I'm going to look at full-backs as a unit I should probably also consider other positional groups that way.

GK - should be equally as good

FB - will be worse than second half of last season but not obviously worse than us in first half of last season. A lot will depend on whether they're overly exposed by players in front of them or not.

CB - we won't start as well because Morrison's lacked a full pre-season and is our best CB but this group should be better than last years

CM - a lot of pressure on Wintle but we know Ralls had a bad year and pre-season suggests that's in the past. Think this group is better than last year on paper but will be facing more pressure because...

AM - this is where we appear weaker than last year. Giles and one other doesn't look as good as Wilson plus one other no matter how you look at it. Giles and Wilson likely our best two if allowed to combine the years mind.

FW - this looks better than last year.

Last year we were clearly short at RB, CB cover and cover for Moore. This year it appears only that LB and AM are looking short. Arguably a more complete squad even if we're not going to score as many goals/win as many games.

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Originally Posted by Hilts

I believe we will be mid table. Those players are experienced championship pros some with promotion under their name.

To suggest as Ronnie does that 5 nil hammerings are to be expected is ridiculous.

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That's my point - I don't suggest 5 nil hammerings and I think Ronnie's being unfairly criticized. Forget the number 5 and change it for 1 and the word hammerings for losses. It's the same outcome.

I know it went horribly wrong the other day (on another thread and to another poster) but I really don't understand our obsession with quoting pros who have promotions under their name when they also have relegation under their name too. And sure, we can all say being promoted from The Championship is different from being relegated from The Premier League. But it's still a big fat relegation that gets conveniently forgotten.

Only in football does failure get rewarded on such a grand scale.

Anyway, as I've said before, it's only football and we're all Bluebirds. Let's focus on our similarities, not our differences. Here's to this season and a full ground. All this is just waffle anyway and something to do when we're not actually watching and supporting. :ayatollah:

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Originally Posted by surge

If I'm going to look at full-backs as a unit I should probably also consider other positional groups that way.

GK - should be equally as good

FB - will be worse than second half of last season but not obviously worse than us in first half of last season. A lot will depend on whether they're overly exposed by players in front of them or not.

CB - we won't start as well because Morrison's lacked a full pre-season and is our best CB but this group should be better than last years

CM - a lot of pressure on Wintle but we know Ralls had a bad year and pre-season suggests that's in the past. Think this group is better than last year on paper but will be facing more pressure because...

AM - this is where we appear weaker than last year. Giles and one other doesn't look as good as Wilson plus one other no matter how you look at it. Giles and Wilson likely our best two if allowed to combine the years mind.

FW - this looks better than last year.

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I think thats fair. We also wont have Bacuna at right back.

Theres also the hope that Colwill can kick on.

AM is the weak part. But we may be going with 2 strikers anyway.

Theres also the fact that a lot of squads are weaker.

Swanseas certainly is.

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Originally Posted by surge

If I'm going to look at full-backs as a unit I should probably also consider other positional groups that way.

GK - should be equally as good

FB - will be worse than second half of last season but not obviously worse than us in first half of last season. A lot will depend on whether they're overly exposed by players in front of them or not.

CB - we won't start as well because Morrison's lacked a full pre-season and is our best CB but this group should be better than last years

CM - a lot of pressure on Wintle but we know Ralls had a bad year and pre-season suggests that's in the past. Think this group is better than last year on paper but will be facing more pressure because...

AM - this is where we appear weaker than last year. Giles and one other doesn't look as good as Wilson plus one other no matter how you look at it. Giles and Wilson likely our best two if allowed to combine the years mind.

FW - this looks better than last year.

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CB don't forget that all returning players are a year older and Morrison and flint may be starting to decline.
McGuiness and maybe even Bakare hopefully get some minutes but that doesn't make us stronger in the short term (even though it's a very good idea in the long term).
I'd say we are weaker at CB , but with better long term options

Worse.

But are so are many of the teams around us

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Originally Posted by WJ99mobile

Worse.

But are so are many of the teams around us

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I think thats the case as well.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

CB don't forget that all returning players are a year older and Morrison and flint may be starting to decline.
McGuiness and maybe even Bakare hopefully get some minutes but that doesn't make us stronger in the short term (even though it's a very good idea in the long term).
I'd say we are weaker at CB , but with better long term options

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First half of last year we had Morrison, Nelson and Benkovic as our CB's. The second half the season we had Morrison (except when he was injured), Nelson, Filnt and Brown. We also had Bamba sitting in the stands for obvious reasons.

Morrison and Flint may have started to decline but i) both still better than Benkovic and ii) Nelson now in his prime and Brown should be better than last year. McGuinnes should be better than Bamba whether he was in the stands or not.

Morrison expected to be our best CB in both years so if he has started his decline our ceiling of talent for this group will be worse, and we don't know how much by, but as a group they should be better than last year.

Don't forget this thread is about squad and the first thing I said was i) it depends on what factor you're looking at but ii) we're worse (in trade off for protecting budget/future) but unlikely to be much worse...

It also depends on what other teams are doing of course. We're not beating Luton or Birmingham by multiple goals again but likely to take higher number of points off Reading, Swansea in their place and we should be beating this year's Wycombe and Sheffield Wednesday whereas that was struggle last year.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

Ojo got 5 goals and 7 assists, which isn't bad . I hope those who are convinced that Giles is going to easily surpass that are correct.

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My prediction is that Giles will get 14 assists and maybe 3 goals

Don’t know why some are reading a word of caution about a potential problem which we should be covering and seeing a prediction or wish that it happens .
If I tell you to take a spare tyre on your car journey, that’s not saying you WILL get a flat- just suggesting that you cover that eventuality.

Wilson will be a loss although I expected more from him last season. He scored almost half his goals in one game. His assist ratio was good though.

However, I'm more optimistic about this season mainly because at the beginning of last season we didn't look like having any home grown players coming though the ranks whereas this season we have several who look like they could do a job as long as they aren't thrown into the team en-masse.

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Originally Posted by Chris Pontprennau Blues

My prediction is that Giles will get 14 assists and maybe 3 goals

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For the season just gone:

Buendía - 16 assists (top)
Olise - 12
Elliot - 11
Wilson - 11
Toney - 10
Mbeumo - 10

Brooks got 7 in an injury hit season, Ojo got 7 playing well for a small selection of games and Connor Roberts got 7 from RWB.

I would be quite surprised if Giles gets 7 or less and amazed if he got as high as 14. It will probably be 8-10 level, though we should recognise that teams are going to quickly work out he's one of our more creative players and we seemingly don't have someone else to take attention away. It wouldn't be his fault in this case if he became less productive than expected.

Shouldn't we be thinking about expected assists for creative players anyway? Ojo only created 14 chances across 42 games and half of those lead to goals (when he was hot he was very good) but chances per 90 was approx 1/3 of Will Vaulks who only had 2 assists and total chances created was 4 fewer than Murphy who played 8 games less.

I see we're still blaming Wilson for "not trying" or "not turning up" when the ball was being punted 10 feet above his head

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Originally Posted by surge

For the season just gone:

Buendía - 16 assists (top)
Olise - 12
Elliot - 11
Wilson - 11
Toney - 10
Mbeumo - 10

Brooks got 7 in an injury hit season, Ojo got 7 playing well for a small selection of games and Connor Roberts got 7 from RWB.

I would be quite surprised if Giles gets 7 or less and amazed if he got as high as 14. It will probably be 8-10 level, though we should recognise that teams are going to quickly work out he's one of our more creative players and we seemingly don't have someone else to take attention away. It wouldn't be his fault in this case if he became less productive than expected.

Shouldn't we be thinking about expected assists for creative players anyway? Ojo only created 14 chances across 42 games and half of those lead to goals (when he was hot he was very good) but chances per 90 was approx 1/3 of Will Vaulks who only had 2 assists and 4 fewer than Murphy who played 8 games less.

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in the 42 championship games he's played so far in his career he has managed 1 assist, so I think maybe everyone is getting a bit carried away with some decent performances against some very weak pre season teams

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Originally Posted by Rjk

in the 42 championship games he's played so far in his career he has managed 1 assist, so I think maybe everyone is getting a bit carried away with some decent performances against some very weak pre season teams

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Giles created 20 chances for Coventry in 21 games compared to Ojo's 14 chances from 42 games according to the BBC stats.

I'd prbably value chances created over assists as a stat (depending on ins and outs of how both are compiled) when it comes to creative players.

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Originally Posted by surge

Giles created 20 chances for Coventry in 21 games compared to Ojo's 14 chances from 42 games according to the BBC stats.

I'd prbably value chances created over assists as a stat (depending on ins and outs of how both are compiled) when it comes to creative players.

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I hope he has a great season as much as anyone, but it seems like our loan signings are as often miss as hit. he might go on and get 10 or even 14 assists, but I think those are very high expectations. I'm going to guess 5

I’d say that Giles is a VERY exciting prospect. If he proves capable of sustaining it then he’ll be a more valuable asset than Harry Wilson.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

I agree about Bennett. if he was fit he'd definitely make us stronger, but him not being here gives game time to Bagan and in a year or twos time that could be paying dividends.
we aren't going up this season so it's about developing players for the future, developing our playing style etc

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Claps

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Originally Posted by 2b2bdoo

Wilson without a doubt.
Bennett would probably start but if rather Bagan given a chance.
Ojo I don't think would walk in, he was in and out a lot, tbh I wasn't massively impressed.
Turu was never fit so I don't think we can be to concerned about him missing.

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Agreed.