Big jump in the number of new cases in Wales today, up to 223.
https://public.tableau.com/views/Rap...Amobile=true#2
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Big jump in the number of new cases in Wales today, up to 223.
https://public.tableau.com/views/Rap...Amobile=true#2
Yeah big jump. Not good. Hopefully we dont see big rises in hospital admissions.
Interesting take:
There was always going to be a new wave of infections as restrictions lifted. After all, lockdowns don’t kill a virus – they just delay the spread. But should we be scared? In this week’s issue, Philip Thomas, a professor of risk management, is emphatic that there’s no need to fear the third wave. We’re as ready as we’ll ever be, thanks to the success of the vaccines. There may well be a huge rise in Covid cases over the summer – particularly among the young – but thankfully, the virus has been deprived of the danger it once carried. So let’s re-open, he says, and deal with the exit wave now, rather than in the depths of winter.
Less than half of the new cases there were in Wales yesterday, but it is still over a hundred;-
https://public.tableau.com/views/Rap...Amobile=true#2
Herd immunity won't happen imo. For measles, about 95% vaccination is needed. Even if you get that, if you go somewhere that's not 95%, like on holiday, then youre at risk again.
I don't think scientists know enough about covid to have a reliable herd % - I know 80% used to be mentioned a lot but we've had a very infectious variant since then.
I know it's old news that Wales has done well on the vaccination front but seen in a chart like on this page it really is impressive
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57438587
I think you're talking about this:
https://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.ph...=1#post5120002
Last September, when you said:
"Think they are just saying 6 months as that’s winter over at least, even though the last lockdown started at the end of last winter.....
Maybe there will be a vaccine? Didn’t Vallance say the other day there was a small chance it could be ready for those who need it most by Christmas? Now, that would be the sort of news that if true most people would just toe the line up until then, knowing things will be normal again post Christmas. I’d be happy to sit in for 3 months if it was nailed on this would end once and for all."
And I replied:
"The arrival of the vaccine will be the beginning of the end, but it will still take a painfully long time before we can say it's ended once and for all. "
The end clearly refers to the end of lockdowns, restrictions, etc. Please don't twist my words to make it seem like I said the vaccine was the beginning of the end of the virus itself.
Later that day in the thread you called me "the merchant of doom"
but time hasn't proven me wrong yet, wouldn't you say goats?
For those above 18 and on a purely UK level as of 9th of June:
1st: Wales, 87%
2nd: Scotland, 77.6%
3rd: England, 77.1%
4th: Northern Ireland, 75.8%
And for second doses that is:
1st: England, 55.3%
2nd: Scotland, 52.9%
3rd: Wales, 52.1%
4th: Northern Ireland, 50.7%
As per: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations
I think what interested me most was that the gap in terms of second doses for Wales from top position is narrowing but gap to second position for first doses has remained stable since I last looked at the figures a few days ago.
It's obviously not a race and many different factors at play, also the most important thing is people coming forward especially if they've missed a dose.
More pollitics, Drakeford saying something is "Simply untrue" answering a different question. He says that they have never drawn from the UK Buffer stockpile implying Hancock said they had, where in reality Hancock said the buffer is available if it is needed. A different thing.
The reason Wales have vaccinated a greater percentage of people is because they are targeting first vaccinations where England and Scotland are going more for second, and that's the only reason. They haven't manage to make more doses by giving less or conjured up extra doses on their own, it's nonsense. you can only give the number of vaccines you have, the difference is who you give them to.
The other political thing in this article is Mr Drakeford also said he was not prepared to follow England by announcing a date when all freedoms would be restored in Wales.
"I think it's too optimistic to say that vaccination has broken the link between falling ill and hospitalisation with the new Delta variant," he said. It implies he has already made his mind up, so much for someone who says he always follows the science. If the science says open up, does anyone honestly believe he will?
It's not medical, it's political.
Matt Hancock said the following:
To which first response from Welsh government was:Quote:
"Our colleagues in Wales decided to hold no such buffer and go ahead on the presumption that supply would come through," he said.
"But they also knew that if there was an interruption to supply that England's buffer would be used to ensure nobody in Wales would miss their second vaccination."
So Hancock saying Wales could press ahead with no buffer safe in knowledge that in hypothetical event it all went wrong they had support and Wales saying we had our own buffer in case things went wrong, have not needed to use England's and have been able to send vaccines back the other way. They're both emphasizing the bit which makes them look better but selective hearing on your part also.Quote:
"It is wrong to suggest we are reliant on an 'English buffer' as we hold our own and actually deliver a smaller proportion of vaccine to our centres than other UK nations."
Regarding re-opening, England have not given a date but the way it was messaged allowed people to put one in their calendar as freedom date. It appears England's "freedom date" may be pushed back by upto a month and nightclubs not initially included which is causing a stir on radio/in the press. It's predominantly a case of whether you want to give message of optimism or not when things could quickly change as medical officers are now saying it's too early to give a date and more information needed.
Not really, I was just saying what I thought would happen. It turns out I was right, and looking at the thread again I wasn't the only one. Plenty of people called it.
Unlike Mr Deluded here, with his "if the vaccine is out before Christmas then things will be normal after" :hehe:
I don't disagree with you, what I said was that Drakeford said "It's not true, we haven't used their buffer" when in fact no one said they had, only that it was there if they needed it.
The other point is that he was already stating that he had no intention of following England before he even knows what England intended to do, which, if he is following the science, would seem to be a statement driven more by politics than up to the minute infection/hospitalisation information, as he clearly did not have that when he made his comment. Does he mean if England doesn't open up that he then will just so as not to follow them?
As I have opined before, he often make the right decisions but for the wrong reasons.
It would be really interesting to see the paperwork behind decision making processes which would clear it up. It's highly unlikely that Wales' strategy amounts to going at a pace because we can fallback on England (if that was a bullet point on meeting notes I expect it to be down the list and several other processes in place to stop it being relied on) and Hancock said Wales didn't have a buffer which is factually untrue. We hopefully never find out the answer in practice about whether Wales' buffer would be enough.
Something of a UK/USA disagreement about the lateral flow tests we’ve been using;-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...cathing-review
Being reported that England's "Freedom Day" is being pushed back to mid July
looks like your right city123 announcement due 6pm tonight
so whats everyones views on here . the right or wrong thing to do at this stage ?
think the buffoon will argue he wants more younger people to be vaccinated
The plan in England was always "step 4, no earlier than 21 June" but desire to promote optimism meant that wasn't heard and there was no desire to make it heard.Quote:
It’s obvious where most broadcasters sit on extending restrictions. But I wish they’d stop saying ‘just’ another 4 weeks.
Like it’s no worse than the delayed delivery of a sofa.
Must be aggravating to businesses who haven’t been able to open properly for ‘just’ 15 months already.
https://twitter.com/GeoffNorcott/sta...45407900106754
This is the first time easing has had to be pushed back post announcement of roadmap but it could have happened before for Step 2 and 3.
Will be interesting to see if people become annoyed with desire to promote optimism whether it's realistic or not (from politicians and supportive media sources) or whether frustration will be aimed at media outlets in general?