Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Father Dougal
It can't be argued they are higher- as they are. However isn't there a more nuanced debate to be had around the reasons (and it won't be a single reason) for these deaths.
For example how many extra have died because of cancer due to so much of our normal NHS all but disappearing as it focused almost entirely on covid?
And how many fewer deaths from 'flu, traffic accidents etc? It cuts both ways.
Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371
Quote:
Originally Posted by
xsnaggle
to try to illustrate the basic point i was trying to make look if you will at the numbers given her by the ONS. It shows death in the last month of 2021 and the first week of 2022. One set shows and increase the other a decrease. To attain the mean figure we have to deduct one from the other.
given that the pandemic in UK started in Mar 2020 and went on (for example) until Dec 2021, a period of 20 month,s we should then look at the figures of the next 20 months to determine the overall difference above the average. That would be a better indicator of the actual number of excess deaths over a period.
It may well be that the figure is much higher, and evidence suggests that will be the case, but until we have that data no one can say with any certainty.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...rriages/deaths
If these figures aren't collated to establish trends then there is no point in collating them at all.
now I'm going back to sleep because I was working last night, whatever Delm may have been doing. :hehe:
I have to confess I really don't understand what you're trying to argue. Just trying to clarify a little here...
Most governments have an agency that calculates EXPECTED (EXP) deaths by time period. I think the UK uses 5 years of back data for its modeling. Just an aside, the statistical models used to forecast EXP deaths are not straightforward simple linear extrapolations. They are much more complex - for instance - they split the population into age cohorts and examine what is going on within each cohort. ACTUAL (ACT) deaths are counted for each time period. (Let's put the issue of how deaths are counted and classified to one side.) EXCESS (XS) deaths is the difference for a given time period between the number of expected deaths and actual deaths: XS = ACT - EXP.
Take 2020, 2021 and 2022 and tell us what you're asserting about XS, ACT and EXP for each year and the point you're making from the assertions.
Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371
Quote:
Originally Posted by
az city
And how many fewer deaths from 'flu, traffic accidents etc? It cuts both ways.
Maybe. Yes I was wondering if that will have an impact.
Also can't just be taken year by year in terms of overall cost of deaths. Eg if it is higher in 2021 and even 2022 or 2023 how many of those deaths could be traced back to the taking away of the normal health service for such a long period of time. Caner charities say we are seeing more and more cancers in later stages coming through now that weren't picked up for example.
Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Father Dougal
It can't be argued they are higher- as they are. However isn't there a more nuanced debate to be had around the reasons (and it won't be a single reason) for these deaths.
For example how many extra have died because of cancer due to so much of our normal NHS all but disappearing as it focused almost entirely on covid?
It is a bit of a get out though isn't it.
"OH THOSE PEOPLE, yeah they died with covid not OF covid"
"Okay so shall we look at excess deaths then?"
"Well they could have died of anything!"
Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Father Dougal
Maybe. Yes I was wondering if that will have an impact.
Also can't just be taken year by year in terms of overall cost of deaths. Eg if it is higher in 2021 and even 2022 or 2023 how many of those deaths could be traced back to the taking away of the normal health service for such a long period of time. Caner charities say we are seeing more and more cancers in later stages coming through now that weren't picked up for example.
I doubt they would also endorse the messages earlier in this thread.
Re: Deaths from Covid ALONE between Jan 1 2020 to 30/9/2021 only 17,371
Quote:
Originally Posted by
JamesWales
Delmbox wishes he could wank between 02.17 and 02.24. According to ALL OF UR MUMS he would only normally last until 02.19.
I don't like this comment but by God I respect it
