Some interesting tweets from a journalist called Ben Judah @b_judah


Merkel and Brussels have outright already refused an EEA+ agreement that gives UK migration control, passporting and single market access. What is passporting? All banks registered in UK have a "passport" that allows them to do business with whole EU. The City depends on it.

Base case is Berlin and Brussels plan to insist on an EEA- (i.e. a worse deal than Norway) that excludes passporting, migration controls. This would however allow services to continue to have access to the singoe market. But not financial services. Mass migration continues.

This is formal offer. But Paris is planning a turn of cynical brilliance - that could at a stroke smite London and restore Paris to glory. France cynicallly intends to offer Britain an EEA- that excludes passporting, but givs them a migration cap, and single market access.

This is a brilliant move: "you get less Poles, but we want your banks." It would be in France's interests to encourage UK out to get banks. This would leave some stuff shirt like Crabb in a disastrous position: Paris and Berlin would have handed him a deal only "bad for bankers."

But the cynical French deal would be exactly the kind of cap migration, free movement for us and single market deal that the public want. The next Tory muchkin leader would then be a hideous position: have his tax base slasshed at by loss of banks as his voters rejoice. Paris and Frankfurt would emerge as enormous winners by ending passporting. Hugely boosting popularity of French and German leadership. British public will be left moronically clapping the huge triumph of a few less Poles and the punishment for "bankers" and tax base slashed.

City analysts I met look with unbrindled distain on a Tory leadership class they think are simply muppets. No clue what's about to hit them. France has already made this plan public. Hollande utterly clear on exactly what he wants Paris to grab from London.

How will EU divy up the City of London? This is base-case: Euro-clearing to Frankfurt and rest to Paris, Amsterdam to avoid. Hollande is particularly keen to grab as many banks as he can from London: a sudden rush of banks to Paris could turn his Presidency around.

Will will a weak France get so many goodies? Surelt France has a weak political system and flaring Islamism and rising Le Pen? It is crucial to understand EU must at all costs stop Le Pen winning in 2017. Best way to do this? Reward France the banks and their taxes.

That's all for now. Just remember what a glorious day it is!