Things that may impact the election campaign

[JamesWales]

I must say, I don't think any of the below will massively change anything. I think Labour will win, the question is by how much, and I guess maybe whether there's a majority. Still time for a lot of movement in the polls too..

So apart from the general day to day campaigning, I'm thinking these may be key events?

1 / The Leaders debates. Say no more
2 / The EU elections. Who wins, and why. If the "far right" makes big gains, does that change people's views of the UK here?
3 / Economic data. I don't think any big GDP stuff will come out, but there will be another round of inflation, food inflation, wage growth and unemployment etc data. Will any of it shift the dial?
4 / unforeseen horrific event. Terrorism, some kind of dreadful crime? Does their reactions to it change anything?
5 / England (and Scotland) during Euro 24. Should have no impact but can't underestimate a feel good factor
6 / weather on the day. Makes a difference to mood and turnout
7 / Gaza situation.
8 / Labour v the left. Tories v the right. Will Galloway's lot bite into Labour? Will Reform bite into Tories (and Labour?)
9 / Lib Dems. Seems a bad start from them, but they can take or give votes from both major parties. What will they do? Ed Davey seems a bit of a plonker.

What else?

[jon1959]

On point 8 I think the Greens are more likely to syphon off former Labour votes than the Workers Party.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Far left idiots

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Reform is supposed to be taking 7 votes from the tories to 1 vote from Labour

It's the Tories SDP , splitting their vote

Great news for Labour

As long as they don't shoot themselves in the foot

Oh hold on a moment .....

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

The Lib dems are hopeless which is a shame as most people who vote for them are the archetypal just left of centre sort

It's their leadership that is generally crap and leaves them squeezed out in this system

If PR was brought in I would vote Lib Dem as often as i would vote Labour in order to keep the Tories out

This time they will take loads of seats off the Tories in tactical voting and good for them

[goats]

The Lib dems are hopeless which is a shame as most people who vote for them are the archetypal just left of centre sort

It's their leadership that is generally crap and leaves them squeezed out in this system

If PR was brought in I would vote Lib Dem as often as i would vote Labour in order to keep the Tories out

This time they will take loads of seats off the Tories in tactical voting and good for them

I always used to vote Lib Dem’s mainly because I didn’t like the alts either way, shame they have plummeted so much here. I’m sure they used to have a few seats in wales and possibly in Cardiff too? Cardiff south and penarth was it? Reckon reform will take quite a lot of votes this time. The amount we waste on foreign aid is ridiculous when we have so many issues here, and what I mean is they reckon half end up in wrong hands anyway and always has….starting tax at 20k will appeal to many, as will scrapping vat on energy bills and reducing it in fuel too. All sounds good but can they ever do it?

[JamesWales]

On point 8 I think the Greens are more likely to syphon off former Labour votes than the Workers Party.

Yeah, don't disagree, although I suppose I view that as a bit of a given really, as they have been for a while.

[pipster]

I expect the world and the uk to be fixed within 100 days of a Labour govt
I expect more spending by a Labour govt and I expect my tax to go down, I also want a 4 day week like Drakeford was looking into.
In reality I think we will be going back to the boom years of Blair / brown

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

I always used to vote Lib Dem’s mainly because I didn’t like the alts either way, shame they have plummeted so much here. I’m sure they used to have a few seats in wales and possibly in Cardiff too? Cardiff south and penarth was it? Reckon reform will take quite a lot of votes this time. The amount we waste on foreign aid is ridiculous when we have so many issues here, and what I mean is they reckon half end up in wrong hands anyway and always has….starting tax at 20k will appeal to many, as will scrapping vat on energy bills and reducing it in fuel too. All sounds good but can they ever do it?

I would vote liberal instead of Labour if it meant keeping the Tories out

I would vote green if I had to

Or Plaid

[goats]

I would vote liberal instead of Labour if it meant keeping the Tories out

I would vote green if I had to

Or Plaid

I wouldn’t worry about the Tories sludge, they are done. Could never go plaid though, might be relevant in north wales but not here in Cardiff. We already have to suffer come on Cymru at football matches ffs

[Eric Cartman]

Not much unless we are talking margin of victory for Labour. Tories appear to be in damage limitation mode and aiming the majority of the policies at groups which they held and where their vote was slipping away.

Tactical voting will decide the margin. Polls will probably tighten (to 12-15%) as everyone realises Labour aren't going to do much, a sort of let-down effect of a manifesto that flies in face of rhetoric - 'everything needs to change' vs 'we are just going to fiddle around the edges'. GB Energy is a good example of that playing out right now.

[the other bob wilson]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...rom-using-song

[Robin Friday's Ghost]

After the Lib Dems reneged on their promise to scrap tuition fees when they last got into government and actually conspired to increase them by several thousand a year, anyone who votes for them deserves everything they get.

[Hilts]

I would vote liberal instead of Labour if it meant keeping the Tories out

I would vote green if I had to

Or Plaid

Thats it. There are online campaigns to get the Tories destroyed at this election. Lets hope it works.

It really is a matter of using your vote to get the Tories absolutely hammered at this election

Tactical voting is vital.

I do get worried though. Old woman on TV admitting the Govt has been hopeless but "they are all the same" and says she wont vote. But then goes on to say she will vote Conservative if she does as usual.

If Labour are showing a 20 point lead id say in reality its about half that. I hope the young generation get out and vote this disgrace of a govt out with a really bad defeat.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Thats it. There are online campaigns to get the Tories destroyed at this election. Lets hope it works.

It really is a matter of using your vote to get the Tories absolutely hammered at this election

Tactical voting is vital.

I do get worried though. Old woman on TV admitting the Govt has been hopeless but "they are all the same" and says she wont vote. But then goes on to say she will vote Conservative if she does as usual.

If Labour are showing a 20 point lead id say in reality its about half that. I hope the young generation get out and vote this disgrace of a govt out with a really bad defeat.

I would love to see the Tories get battered

A poll last night suggested less than 100 seats for them and a huge majority for Labour

I would be happy with them just losing power to be honest

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

After the Lib Dems reneged on their promise to scrap tuition fees when they last got into government and actually conspired to increase them by several thousand a year, anyone who votes for them deserves everything they get.

The Tories have been going back on promises every time they get in power

They all do but for me it's a case of the least worse option

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

I wouldn’t worry about the Tories sludge, they are done. Could never go plaid though, might be relevant in north wales but not here in Cardiff. We already have to suffer come on Cymru at football matches ffs

I would vote Plaid rather than the Tories as a protest or tactical vote but it would be Labour or Liberal generally or Green

[Robin Friday's Ghost]

The Tories have been going back on promises every time they get in power

They all do but for me it's a case of the least worse option

This wasn't a case of failing to do what they said they would. All parties do that as you say. This was la case of doing the precise opposite. Anyway, I'm not trying to persuade you not to vote for them. I couldn't care who gets in. It won't make much difference to anything. I doubt very much I'll bother voting. But I certainly won't vote for a party which sold its soul for a few years in government.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

This wasn't a case of failing to do what they said they would. All parties do that as you say. This was la case of doing the precise opposite. Anyway, I'm not trying to persuade you not to vote for them. I couldn't care who gets in. It won't make much difference to anything. I doubt very much I'll bother voting. But I certainly won't vote for a party which sold its soul for a few years in government.

I am not voting for them , I am voting Labour

But if a vote for them meant a tory defeat locally , I would do so

I am not a huge fan of Labour and even less of a fan of the lib dems

But I absolutely detest the conservatives and whilst you don't think a change of government will make any difference and you are not going to bother voting you are clearly in the minority

[Hilts]

This wasn't a case of failing to do what they said they would. All parties do that as you say. This was la case of doing the precise opposite. Anyway, I'm not trying to persuade you not to vote for them. I couldn't care who gets in. It won't make much difference to anything. I doubt very much I'll bother voting. But I certainly won't vote for a party which sold its soul for a few years in government.

And this is why I fear this election wont go the way polls are suggesting.

Im guilty of it in local elections.

But recognise that this lot have to be removed. The likes of Braverman should not be anywhere near govt.

[Robin Friday's Ghost]

And this is why I fear this election wont go the way polls are suggesting.

Im guilty of it in local elections.

But recognise that this lot have to be removed. The likes of Braverman should not be anywhere near govt.

They are incompetent and corrupt. Meanwhile the greatest hope of many on this message board - not mine - is a One Nation Tory who happens to be leader of the Labour Party.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

And this is why I fear this election wont go the way polls are suggesting.

Im guilty of it in local elections.

But recognise that this lot have to be removed. The likes of Braverman should not be anywhere near govt.

The latest mrp poll ...in the daily mail .....suggests an absolute battering with less than 100 seats for the Tories

Mordant to lose her seat which would be great

[Hilts]

The latest mrp poll ...in the daily mail .....suggests an absolute battering with less than 100 seats for the Tories

Mordant to lose her seat which would be great

Who is likely to overturn Mordaunt? If its a Lib Dem then hopefully Labour supporters vote tactically.

Huge bonus if she goes.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

They are incompetent and corrupt. Meanwhile the greatest hope of many on this message board - not mine - is a One Nation Tory who happens to be leader of the Labour Party.

That's daft



I think a moderate labour party is a winner

But I think there are far better leaders out there than starmer

Ideally I would like a coalition of Labour, liberals and the other parties

I have more in common with the liberals , greens and independents than I do with the Tories, its clear people see them as the worst option

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Who is likely to overturn Mordaunt? If its a Lib Dem then hopefully Labour supporters vote tactically.

Huge bonus if she goes.

Labour

12 percent swing needed

It's been labour before and Blair won it in 1997