I think Wales have always had a serious shot at getting to the final but it was hugely dependant on beating Australia.
A QF against France or Argentina would give us nothing to fear but certainly no walk over.
A SF against SA would be incredibly difficult but we have a decent record against them so although being underdogs this team know they have beaten them in recent years.
Then its a final against England or NZ. v England 50/50; v NZ 70/30.
Put it against the alternative: QF - England; SF - NZ; Final - SA = No chance.