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I'm on holiday St Ives, Cornwall at the moment. It's said to be a hotspot for Covid Delta with 44 cases per 100,000 locally.Originally Posted by jon1959
So, turned up at a pub for a pint and some lunch. They asked me to sign in via NHS app which I did, then they asked my wife to do then same. She didn't have her phone with her so she offered to complete a contact form. No go they said, no phone no entry.
Gone a bit over the top really!.
Yeah 99% of bookings for my place are from England, in fact I can only think of a few from Wales. I guess Welsh people either have their own holiday home or shoot off to the Costa’s….This is Pembrokeshire though, they don't call it "Little England beyond Wales" for no reason
Ridiculous, what about people who don’t possess a mobile phone
Let them starve!!Ridiculous, what about people who don’t possess a mobile phone
We’re renting out our family home down there for the first time this year, care home fees to cover. Not sure where bookings are from so far as the agency don’t tell us automatically.
An interesting take from a different angle on the extention of lockdown.
Fear over freedom: Here's what the doom-laden government graphs didn't show us
Putting the data in context, it is clear that the scale of a 'third wave' is not in the same league as those we have already faced.
the graphs
As ever at Downing Street press conferences, Boris Johnson’s scientific advisers deployed their graphs skilfully to back up the warnings of potential catastrophe.
The by now all-too-familiar vertiginous lines were intended to leave the public in no doubt about the consequences of not delaying freedom until July 19.
But take a closer look and the choice of graphs is arguably disingenuous: the slides are most revealing for what they failed to include.
Hospital admissions
We were shown a graph comparing the change in the proportion of under and over-65s admitted to hospital in January and in May/June.
This showed a big jump in the under-65s column, a point Prof Chris Whitty, England’s Chief Medical Officer, took pains to emphasise.
The problem is that this fails to show just how much lower the raw numbers are now.
In reality, there were 95,172 admissions for Covid in England between Jan 1 and 28, compared with 2,851 between May 16 and June 12.
However, a brief glance at the Downing Street graph - and that’s all the general public will have had the chance to do - could well give the impression that the situation in hospitals is worse than last winter.
This comparison is also weakened by the timing chosen by the Government.
Cases are generally distributed in younger age groups towards the start of a period of opening up, as these people are more likely to return to work in person or to socialise.
In September, at the start of the second wave, those aged 18-to-64 comprised 51 per cent of admissions compared with 60 per cent in May. This was higher than it was for the over-65 age group.
The Telegraph’s own graph below - showing, crucially, the actual numbers of patients in hospitals - demonstrates how incomparably better the current situation is.
On Tuesday morning, Sir Simon Stevens, the chief executive of NHS England, revealed that just one per cent of hospital beds are currently occupied by Covid patients, with most of those young.
Sir Simon also said hospitals are in a “much better position” than last year.
The age distribution has “flipped” he said, so those under-65 now make up 70 per cent of cases
The North West
The second graph deployed by Prof Whitty to illustrate the supposed pressure felt by hospitals was problematic in a different way.
It showed the average number of weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 for both the North West and England as a whole.
Snaking left to right by month, the lines appear to rise sharply - particularly for the North West - in the past two weeks.
The problem is one of scale.
The rise in the North West is significant, but, again, pales in comparison with the second wave.
Admissions are at around five per 100,000 as of June 12, compared with around 20 per 100,000 at the end of December and then over 40 by the peak.
This was in no way evident at Monday night’s briefing.
On the far left of the government graph, you can just about see the end of the gentle downhill slope, denoting the end of the second wave, at the start of April.
But it would have been far more informative to have shown the colossal mountain of the second wave itself, so the public could have seen how much bigger it was than the recent uptick.
Cases by age
The same criticism can be made of the graphs showing the weekly increase in cases, which were also only presented from the beginning of April, rather than December or January.
Properly understanding this metric was further hampered by the failure to set out how the cases break down by age.
Most of England’s new cases are now among the young.
Across all ages, the latest daily rate in England is 67.1 per 100,000 (as of June 9), but for those under-60s the rate is 84.1 per, and for those over 60 it is just 12.6 per 100,000.
Downing Street’s choice of graphs needs to be seen in the context that its own modellers have already admitted that they do not know whether releasing restrictions on June 21 would have caused unsustainable pressure on the NHS.
Arguably, Britain is actually doing better than many scientists had predicted. Undoubtedly, the risk of unlocking has changed as a result of the delta variant, but when compared with the turn of the year it is clear the scale of a "third wave" is not in the same league as those we have already faced.
What agency did you use?
Coastal Cottages
Problem being that it's not a new take. It's largely the same take they had for wave 1 and 2 and were shown to be wrong both times, though hopefully they're right this time.
Are they the ones that take 40%?
Nope
They were nicknamed “covid cottages” last summer because their cleaners were so bad….just sayin
Oh ok, that’s good to know. Feel free to drop me a direct message with more info if you don’t mind.
Interesting. The statistic that registered with me was that, had it not been for the Indian variant, COVID would have been virtually eliminated.
But as with all statistics, you have to take it with a pinch of salt, just as you do the doom and gloom merchants.
We drove down to London on the weekend to see round 19 of the netball super-league at the copperbox arena , as always we park at the Mall right next door ( thanks to the folks who gave me that advice)
The VNSL have created a " covid bubble " and play all the games over a 2 or 3 day weekend, teams will play 2 games on a 3 day weekend, so Sunday had 4 games ( though 1 was cancelled as a player had pinged with the NHS app that they had a contact ), the copperbox holds 7500 people and they could sell 1000 tickets, every other row had to stay empty , we met friends for lunch in the Mall, but couldnt sit next to them in the copperbox, which seemed crazy , we also had to wear face masks all the time, so we were about 20 M's away from the next group, but if you took your face mask down to eat, the security came and told you of, the funny thing was, the security seemed to have a face mask that was a chin warmer
most in the copperbox were sensible, in the mall alot of people struggled with wearing masks correctly though
This "freedom day" thats been delayed in england for a month, when it does happen does that mean no more mask wearing in restaurants/supermarkets? track and trace finished with? the end of maximum 2 people in a shop at the same time etc?
Another treatment that will save lives, seems like this could benefit those who cannot by vaccinated.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57488150
Will Cummings end up getting his man?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57498845
Amazing how Cummings was the evil master of Boris only a short while ago, people wouldnt believe a word he was saying, a serial liar, he was lower than a snakes Belly, yet now he is laying into the Tories ( like a whining bitch who was jilted on her wedding day ) we take everything he says as gospel and celebrate everything that comes out of his mouth
its a funny old world
Who is the 'we' in that statement? From what I can see the majority view amongst the public (from polls) and the media is that Cummings is probably telling the truth mostly, but that his credibility is so shot that it won't have much impact - and anyway a large percentage of the public are not surprised by any of the allegations, think that themselves, but for some reason don't care!
For once the Daily Star has captured the mood of the nation!
hopeless.jpg
No one cares, everyone with half a brain cell knows they are all load of lying kents…….it’s politics
You've got it right there Jon - especially the last bit of the first paragraph.
No changes to be announced in Wales tomorrow according to LBC amid concern about Delta variant
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