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Thread: Coronavirus update

  1. #8061

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    It made me wonder if these numbers re telling us we have passed the pre opening crest of this wave, which might inform those that can work it out when we can expect to reach the crest now we re opened up?
    As I pointed out before, there are often data reporting lags/snags so single day data can be misleading. 7-day moving averages and weekly totals are more reliable. For the whole UK, as of today, there was a 40% increase in cases on a base of the previous 7 days. Just so you don't go down the Trump hole again, approximately the same number of tests were conducted over the two seven day periods. I think you can infer case numbers are rising. So are hospitalizations and deaths. Albeit the relationships that emerged in 2020 among cases, hospitalizations and deaths are now no longer valid.

    Personally, I think now is a time for caution. Mask-wearing, avoiding congregate settings and social distancing works; both personally and socially. These aren't that hard to do, surely?

  2. #8062

    Re: Coronavirus update

    It would be absolutely wonderful if we're in a strong position now* because that means we can double our efforts to help the wider world.

    We (at this time referring to the UK) need to protect wider world from the Delta Variant as we need France to protect the UK from the Beta Variant. We also need to help wider world get access to vaccines.

    Understanding of the risks, what actions can be used to reduce this and empathy for others in the UK and outside it.

    *though everyone with any sense is still recommending caution here and slow release of pandemic habits.

  3. #8063
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by az city View Post
    As I pointed out before, there are often data reporting lags/snags so single day data can be misleading. 7-day moving averages and weekly totals are more reliable. For the whole UK, as of today, there was a 40% increase in cases on a base of the previous 7 days. Just so you don't go down the Trump hole again, approximately the same number of tests were conducted over the two seven day periods. I think you can infer case numbers are rising. So are hospitalizations and deaths. Albeit the relationships that emerged in 2020 among cases, hospitalizations and deaths are now no longer valid.

    Personally, I think now is a time for caution. Mask-wearing, avoiding congregate settings and social distancing works; both personally and socially. These aren't that hard to do, surely?
    Why don't you stop withe Trump hole crappie. He is and was nothing to me. Why would he be. Similarly you suggested I was a conspiracy theorist. Nothing could be further from the truth. I appreciate what you say about 7 day numbers and I get it. But the initial theory was that numbers would double every 7 days and from your own figures they clearly aren't..... yet. So if the pre-unlock numbers are plateauing I merely suggest that the modellers may be able to project the time of the expected post unlock peak. I gree wearing masks in crowe places is a no brained but if we cannot sort to open up now when will we? The number of vaccines being given is going down and the people choosing not to get them now will still be doing so later when weather will be worse for us and better for it.
    Some people would happily ban nightclubs from ever opening again or pubs and some people are becoming institutionalised and feel they need to do told what too. Its not healthy.

  4. #8064

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    Similarly you suggested I was a conspiracy theorist. Nothing could be further from the truth.
    From one of your previous posts: "Some of the things this government want to do generally could turn this country into a business wasteland, and their desire to control every facet of peoples lives, made more real than they ever could have dreamed by this pandemic, is making sure it will happen faster."

    That's a conspiracy theory.

  5. #8065

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    Why don't you stop withe Trump hole crappie. He is and was nothing to me. Why would he be.
    '"By the way, when you do more testing, you have more cases. We have more cases than anybody because we do more testing than anybody. It's pretty simple," Trump said Friday in the White House Rose Garden.'

    Reference: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/don...perts-n1228671

  6. #8066
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by az city View Post
    From one of your previous posts: "Some of the things this government want to do generally could turn this country into a business wasteland, and their desire to control every facet of peoples lives, made more real than they ever could have dreamed by this pandemic, is making sure it will happen faster."

    That's a conspiracy theory.
    It's not a conspiracy theory except in your internet wired head. It's a opinion. Look it up

  7. #8067
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by az city View Post
    '"By the way, when you do more testing, you have more cases. We have more cases than anybody because we do more testing than anybody. It's pretty simple," Trump said Friday in the White House Rose Garden.'

    Reference: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/don...perts-n1228671
    you must be totally obsessed with him to be able to first remember him saying that and then to be able to put your finger on the exact quote so easily. I'm not. I have no interest in him, his quote his anything else. It will no doubt amaze you to discover that other people hve said the same kind of thing. But you just pop the all in your 'trump hole'
    I was actually referring to something I'd rad which had been stated by a British scientist. It pretty basic actually, if you test more people you'll find more positive.

  8. #8068
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643

    This makes interesting reading.

    Their numbers suggest that the rate of spread of the infection indicates it is now doubling every 16 days whereas at the end of June it was doubling every 7 days. Seems like it might be leveling out.
    But further down the ONS survey for the 7 day period (Which of course is much better a guide) shows that the rate of infection is actally falling. Make what you will from that.

    But of course the ONS might just be down a trump hole or something. Who knows?

  9. #8069

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    It's not a conspiracy theory except in your internet wired head. It's a opinion. Look it up
    Please stop. You don't even realize (apparently) that you are just repeating a form of the NEW World Order conspiracy theory.

  10. #8070

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643

    This makes interesting reading.

    Their numbers suggest that the rate of spread of the infection indicates it is now doubling every 16 days whereas at the end of June it was doubling every 7 days. Seems like it might be leveling out.
    But further down the ONS survey for the 7 day period (Which of course is much better a guide) shows that the rate of infection is actally falling. Make what you will from that.

    But of course the ONS might just be down a trump hole or something. Who knows?
    "Leveling out" as you refer to plateauing would be indicated by no (zero) increase in the numbers testing positive from one test period to the next. Clearly numbers are still rising so there is no "leveling out".

    The current R(t) in Wales is estimated to be above one.

    You are so closed in your views on this that it makes me think of proverbial Bukowski quote.

  11. #8071

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Hard hitting stuff from a palliative care doctor.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...as-he-clapping

  12. #8072
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by az city View Post
    Please stop. You don't even realize (apparently) that you are just repeating a form of the NEW World Order conspiracy theory.
    you talk some highbrow shite don't you? New world order theory my arse. You're obsessed with conspiracies.

  13. #8073

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643

    This makes interesting reading.

    Their numbers suggest that the rate of spread of the infection indicates it is now doubling every 16 days whereas at the end of June it was doubling every 7 days. Seems like it might be leveling out.
    But further down the ONS survey for the 7 day period (Which of course is much better a guide) shows that the rate of infection is actally falling. Make what you will from that.

    But of course the ONS might just be down a trump hole or something. Who knows?
    Doubling every 16 days doesn't sound like levelling out to me.

  14. #8074

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by lardy View Post
    Doubling every 16 days doesn't sound like levelling out to me.
    better than every 9 days like they said before

    so the curve is not as steep, some might say its the start of the curve starting to flatten

  15. #8075

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643

    This makes interesting reading.

    Their numbers suggest that the rate of spread of the infection indicates it is now doubling every 16 days whereas at the end of June it was doubling every 7 days. Seems like it might be leveling out.
    But further down the ONS survey for the 7 day period (Which of course is much better a guide) shows that the rate of infection is actally falling. Make what you will from that.

    But of course the ONS might just be down a trump hole or something. Who knows?
    That shows that for every person getting infected in Wales more than two are contracting Covid in England. As you say, interesting reading.

  16. #8076

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by blue matt View Post
    better than every 9 days like they said before

    so the curve is not as steep, some might say its the start of the curve starting to flatten
    Yes, better in the sense that it's getting larger less quickly. But that's quite a few steps from levelling out.

    Some might say that now is the time for England to chuck their masks in the bin. Some might.

  17. #8077

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Bob Wilson wrote:

    "People on the left tend to be far more critical of their own than people on the right are in my experience (in public anyway)........................................... ......"

    Obviously we are not going to agree but the point I made is that those who vote differently to the majority on this forum simply don't bother to criticise Labour policy and Labour Party leadership. There is no point as their comments are confronted by posts which make them wonder why they bother. I'm at that stage and will attempt to refrain on commenting on such issues in the future. There have been several Labour issues that have not been commented on this forum such as for example:

    1. Starmer siding with the Unions original view that children shouldn't return to school only to change his stance later on to blame the government for making slow progress.

    2. Nobody seemed to comment adversely on the decision to appoint Starmer as Leader when reports suggested it was his BREXIT policy that was one of the main reasons for Labour doing so badly at the General Election.

    3. No comment was forthcoming on the left of the Labour Party seeking to replace Starmer with Angela Rayner if Labour lost the Batley and Spen by election.

    4. Nothing much about Starmer trying to sack Angela Rayner only to find she was reappointed 24 hours later with a wider portfolio to strengthen her position.

    5. Not much about Dawn Butler presenting misleading photographs to support her claim the Police were racist.

    In relation to your other comment about what the government have done well beyond the vaccine is a reasonable point but that was a pretty big success that the public at least seem to think was more important than the government's obvious failures if the Hartlepool by election result was anything to go by. Yes the Batley and Spen election was regained by Labour but their share of the vote was hardly an endorsement of Labour Party policy...........whatever that is.

  18. #8078
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Vindec View Post
    Bob Wilson wrote:

    "People on the left tend to be far more critical of their own than people on the right are in my experience (in public anyway)........................................... ......"

    Obviously we are not going to agree but the point I made is that those who vote differently to the majority on this forum simply don't bother to criticise Labour policy and Labour Party leadership. There is no point as their comments are confronted by posts which make them wonder why they bother. I'm at that stage and will attempt to refrain on commenting on such issues in the future. There have been several Labour issues that have not been commented on this forum such as for example:

    1. Starmer siding with the Unions original view that children shouldn't return to school only to change his stance later on to blame the government for making slow progress.

    2. Nobody seemed to comment adversely on the decision to appoint Starmer as Leader when reports suggested it was his BREXIT policy that was one of the main reasons for Labour doing so badly at the General Election.

    3. No comment was forthcoming on the left of the Labour Party seeking to replace Starmer with Angela Rayner if Labour lost the Batley and Spen by election.

    4. Nothing much about Starmer trying to sack Angela Rayner only to find she was reappointed 24 hours later with a wider portfolio to strengthen her position.

    5. Not much about Dawn Butler presenting misleading photographs to support her claim the Police were racist.

    In relation to your other comment about what the government have done well beyond the vaccine is a reasonable point but that was a pretty big success that the public at least seem to think was more important than the government's obvious failures if the Hartlepool by election result was anything to go by. Yes the Batley and Spen election was regained by Labour but their share of the vote was hardly an endorsement of Labour Party policy...........whatever that is.
    That is a strange list - is it your top 5 of incidents/events where you think Labour/Starmer got it wrong without comment on here?

    I'm certain there was discussion of point 1 in the Covid thread (not going to trawl through to pick posts out) and at the time many posters agreed with the stance taken by Starmer. His argument at the time was completely consistent with criticising the government for slow progress whether you agreed with him or not.

    Points 2-4 have all been discussed in several threads on the Politics board. I agree with your observation in point 2 and said so at the time. So did others.

    I have no idea what point 5 is about. Dawn Butler MP accused the police of racial profiling when she was stopped in August last year, and she was supported by spokespeople of the National Black Police Association and others who have campaigned against the racist practice. I don't know what the photos are that you say are misleading - but the police have never denied the stop or given a credible reason for it - the clear inference is that she and her friend in the car were stopped because of their skin colour.

    However, if you want to start a pile in on Kier Starmer I'm happy to join in. I am still a member of the Labour Party (just) but I think Starmer and the Blairite gang who are surrounding him (MPs, staff and Mandelson) are a disaster.

  19. #8079

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Interesting mask wearing by party allegiance in #PMQs. I'd say only a quarter of Tory MPs are wearing face coverings.
    Every Labour MP, @theSNP and @LibDems MP wearing masks.

    DUP MPs also not wearing masks.

    Update, more Tory MPs have now out them on. Current count: 14 with masks (tho just two on front bench), 17 without (including the Leader of the Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg)

    PM's press secretary: "I think the Prime Minister has been clear about the importance of wearing masks in enclosed setting."

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status...03063788818433
    And remember:

    15. The peak of the resurgence will however be much lower if the return to pre-pandemic behaviours is gradual, irrespective of legislative decisions (i.e., any changes happen over several months) than if it is rapid, and if more measures to reduce transmission are maintained (high confidence). If the aim is to prevent the NHS being under
    pressure the priority should be to avoid a very rapid return to pre-pandemic behaviour which could lead to a peak in hospitalisations similar to (or possibly even higher than) previous peaks.
    The mechanism by which this gradual change to more mixing is achieved is much less important than the fact it is gradual.

    18. As restrictions are lifted it will be important for messaging to communicate the continued risks from COVID-19 and effective mitigations, including information on how to minimise within household spread. SAGE advises that continuing to providenear real time local information on prevalence would be helpful. Communication targeted to both individuals and organisations will be important

    (https://assets.publishing.service.go..._July_2021.pdf)

  20. #8080

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by jon1959 View Post
    That is a strange list - is it your top 5 of incidents/events where you think Labour/Starmer got it wrong without comment on here?

    I'm certain there was discussion of point 1 in the Covid thread (not going to trawl through to pick posts out) and at the time many posters agreed with the stance taken by Starmer. His argument at the time was completely consistent with criticising the government for slow progress whether you agreed with him or not.

    Points 2-4 have all been discussed in several threads on the Politics board. I agree with your observation in point 2 and said so at the time. So did others.

    I have no idea what point 5 is about. Dawn Butler MP accused the police of racial profiling when she was stopped in August last year, and she was supported by spokespeople of the National Black Police Association and others who have campaigned against the racist practice. I don't know what the photos are that you say are misleading - but the police have never denied the stop or given a credible reason for it - the clear inference is that she and her friend in the car were stopped because of their skin colour.

    However, if you want to start a pile in on Kier Starmer I'm happy to join in. I am still a member of the Labour Party (just) but I think Starmer and the Blairite gang who are surrounding him (MPs, staff and Mandelson) are a disaster.
    I thought the same thing Jon, right down to me knowing nothing about point five.

    A constant bugbear of mine is that so many in the Labour party see the other faction in the party as a bigger rival than the party that has kept them out of Government for more than a decade - Id say that youd get left wing posters on here joining in with any thread started by a Conservative supporter who were more critical of the Labour Party than the Tory ones!

    For myself, you only have to read my reaction to the Batley and Spen result to see I can hardly claim to a blind loyalist either!

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