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Thread: Coronavirus update

  1. #7701

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish View Post

    'closed down' in a generic sense - put on stop -put back- removed from list- added to list


    If you put opening up back any further, extend what are in effect holiday bans, because you're 'concerned', then we'll carry on like this indefinitely.
    If you don't reach a stage in your reasoning that a risk is possible yet unlikely, then you will never stop the endless fear that's plaguing Government. What's ironic, is there isn't actually a new variant according to WHO, it's a minor mutation of which there have been 1000's.
    Not 'closed down' in the sense of being closed down then. In recent weeks I have drunk beer in pub gardens, increased the number of people on my walks from 6 to up to 30, attended a football game, visited Wales, eaten in restaurants with up to 6 friends etc - all things that I couldn't do a month or two ago. Yes, some measures have had to be revised or reversed in the short term but being 'closed down again' it ain't.

  2. #7702

  3. #7703

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Interesting views on where it originated from coming again, with wuhans institute of virology looking likely again....

    Firstly, they claim that the Covid-19 pathogen has a genetic footprint that has never been observed in a natural coronavirus before. To put this in its simplest form, Covid-19 has the genome sequencing CGC-CGG or "double CGG" which is one of the 36 sequencing patterns. They said CGC is rarely used in the class of coronaviruses that can recombine with CoV-2 which is a "damning fact".

    Dr Quay, the founder of US-based biopharmaceutical company Atossa, wrote: "The insertion sequence of choice is the double CGG. That's because it is readily available and convenient, and scientists have a great deal of experience inserting it. An additional advantage of the double CGG sequence compared with the other 35 possible choices: It creates a useful beacon that permits the scientists to track the insertion in the laboratory."

    The experts added: "In fact, in the entire class of coronaviruses that includes CoV-2, the CGG-CGG combination has never been found naturally. That means the common method of viruses picking up new skills, called recombination, cannot operate here.

    Full story in Wales online

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/h...china-20768398

  4. #7704

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    When I posted that the two links were different, one said there were only 3 deaths in the week just gone and the other said there had been no covid related deaths for 12 days. Both on the BBC Wales website at 0800 this morning.
    Which is why I asked the question.
    A few days ago they said there hadn't been a death in x number of days but had recorded one from last year.

    In theory, it's possible that in a year's time we're told actually there was a death recorded within this timeframe so guess difference is that we'd have to really search for them rather than it being so obvious.

    If anyone has been missed regarding vaccine they'd love to hear from you.

  5. #7705
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by surge View Post
    A few days ago they said there hadn't been a death in x number of days but had recorded one from last year.

    In theory, it's possible that in a year's time we're told actually there was a death recorded within this timeframe so guess difference is that we'd have to really search for them rather than it being so obvious.

    If anyone has been missed regarding vaccine they'd love to hear from you.
    I don't really understand what you are trying to say here.
    I only pointed out that as both articles were posted on the BBC website on the same day (today) that I could not see how they could both be considered right. That's all. I'm not getting at the government or PHW it is more a question of the BBC not checking what they are putting out.
    And I still don't know which one is right.

  6. #7706

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    I don't really understand what you are trying to say here.
    I only pointed out that as both articles were posted on the BBC website on the same day (today) that I could not see how they could both be considered right. That's all. I'm not getting at the government or PHW it is more a question of the BBC not checking what they are putting out.
    And I still don't know which one is right.
    I'm going to make up the dates to help illustrate the point but basically the story was that Wales had gone 11 days without a death from covid but an extra one had been recorded relating to May 2020.

    That might explain how a story can report 12 days without a death and also 3 deaths being recorded.

  7. #7707
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by surge View Post
    I'm going to make up the dates to help illustrate the point but basically the story was that Wales had gone 11 days without a death from covid but an extra one had been recorded relating to May 2020.

    That might explain how a story can report 12 days without a death and also 3 deaths being recorded.
    But that is not what the articles said. One said no deaths for the last 12 (now 13) days and the other said 3 deaths in the last week. No mention of historical deaths being added.

  8. #7708

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    But that is not what the articles said. One said no deaths for the last 12 (now 13) days and the other said 3 deaths in the last week. No mention of historical deaths being added.
    I think this is the key sentence in the deaths article:

    "They are regarded as more complete than the daily snapshot figures reported by Public Health Wales."

    Zero deaths is the PHW info. The ONS uses death certificates, which are available later. That's how the articles explain it.

  9. #7709

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by lardy View Post
    I think this is the key sentence in the deaths article:

    "They are regarded as more complete than the daily snapshot figures reported by Public Health Wales."

    Zero deaths is the PHW info. The ONS uses death certificates, which are available later. That's how the articles explain it.
    It's the same with the total deaths data. PHW says just under 5,600 total since the start of the pandemic. ONS say just over 7,800. Big difference

  10. #7710

    Re: Coronavirus update

    People who have had Covid don't need to be vaccinated ,interesting report ,could speed the vaccine on if adopted ?

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....01.21258176v2

  11. #7711

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Big jump in the number of new cases in Wales today, up to 223.

    https://public.tableau.com/views/Rap...Amobile=true#2

  12. #7712

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Yeah big jump. Not good. Hopefully we dont see big rises in hospital admissions.

  13. #7713

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by lisvaneblue View Post
    It's the same with the total deaths data. PHW says just under 5,600 total since the start of the pandemic. ONS say just over 7,800. Big difference
    Presumably PHW aren't going back to update their daily figures. ONS will be more reliable.

  14. #7714

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Interesting take:

    There was always going to be a new wave of infections as restrictions lifted. After all, lockdowns don’t kill a virus – they just delay the spread. But should we be scared? In this week’s issue, Philip Thomas, a professor of risk management, is emphatic that there’s no need to fear the third wave. We’re as ready as we’ll ever be, thanks to the success of the vaccines. There may well be a huge rise in Covid cases over the summer – particularly among the young – but thankfully, the virus has been deprived of the danger it once carried. So let’s re-open, he says, and deal with the exit wave now, rather than in the depths of winter.

  15. #7715

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Less than half of the new cases there were in Wales yesterday, but it is still over a hundred;-

    https://public.tableau.com/views/Rap...Amobile=true#2

  16. #7716

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by life on mars View Post
    Interesting take:

    There was always going to be a new wave of infections as restrictions lifted. After all, lockdowns don’t kill a virus – they just delay the spread. But should we be scared? In this week’s issue, Philip Thomas, a professor of risk management, is emphatic that there’s no need to fear the third wave. We’re as ready as we’ll ever be, thanks to the success of the vaccines. There may well be a huge rise in Covid cases over the summer – particularly among the young – but thankfully, the virus has been deprived of the danger it once carried. So let’s re-open, he says, and deal with the exit wave now, rather than in the depths of winter.
    Exactly, aren’t we heading for herd immunity through vaccines and antibodies? Anyone got any sympathy for the anti vaccers if they end up in hospital?

  17. #7717

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by goats View Post
    Exactly, aren’t we heading for herd immunity through vaccines and antibodies? Anyone got any sympathy for the anti vaccers if they end up in hospital?
    Herd immunity won't happen imo. For measles, about 95% vaccination is needed. Even if you get that, if you go somewhere that's not 95%, like on holiday, then youre at risk again.

    I don't think scientists know enough about covid to have a reliable herd % - I know 80% used to be mentioned a lot but we've had a very infectious variant since then.

  18. #7718

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by life on mars View Post
    Interesting take:

    There was always going to be a new wave of infections as restrictions lifted. After all, lockdowns don’t kill a virus – they just delay the spread. But should we be scared? In this week’s issue, Philip Thomas, a professor of risk management, is emphatic that there’s no need to fear the third wave. We’re as ready as we’ll ever be, thanks to the success of the vaccines. There may well be a huge rise in Covid cases over the summer – particularly among the young – but thankfully, the virus has been deprived of the danger it once carried. So let’s re-open, he says, and deal with the exit wave now, rather than in the depths of winter.
    Two points from that:

    i) we're as ready as we'll ever be for a third wave
    ii) let's chose timing of that third wave to ensure it's not during winter time

    Hard to agree with the first and disagree with the second.

  19. #7719

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by lardy View Post
    Herd immunity won't happen imo. For measles, about 95% vaccination is needed. Even if you get that, if you go somewhere that's not 95%, like on holiday, then youre at risk again.

    I don't think scientists know enough about covid to have a reliable herd % - I know 80% used to be mentioned a lot but we've had a very infectious variant since then.
    I remember you saying that the vaccine rollout would be the beginning of the end too.....

  20. #7720

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by goats View Post
    I remember you saying that the vaccine rollout would be the beginning of the end too.....
    That is not the zinger of a putdown that you think it is

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