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Greater Manchester hospitals stand up extra critical care beds and seek mutual aid as Covid admissions, primary care pressures and record A&E attendances ramp up further: https://www.manchestereveningnews.co...extra-21050865Hospitals (London and Manchester) cancel operations and appeal for staff to volunteer for Covid redeployment, as summer crisis bears down on NHS: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-b1883826.htmlThe current covid wave has been described to me as a "nightmare" by NHS sources in the North East (of England). Emergency departments "heaving," many staff off due to covid illness/ isolation, younger people in ICUs - some vaccinated, some not: https://twitter.com/mattdiscombe/sta...57101472428035The summer is meant to be the quiet period for the NHS so I would presume it doesn't take much for far greater pressure than normal being felt.NHS summer crisis: Major hospital (Birmingham) cancels all planned operations today and tomorrow: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-b1884914.html
The SAGE minutes I posted earlier said they knew about the surge, they wanted it now instead of autumn and winter and there needs to be strong, clear communication about what people can do to protect themselves and others (and what businesses can do to protect their staff/consumers) to lessen the impact otherwise we could end up with another extreme peak. The question needed being whether different government's and different ministers are all communicating that well enough?
Another thread mentioned Tory pledge for extra 50,000 nurses a day (originally this meant somehow dissuading 19,000 expected to leave from leaving) after years of underinvesting in the service so will be interesting to see if more than 19,000 leave due to exhaustion, whether higher number than expected stay-on because this has reaffirmed how valuable the NHS is or whether more than 31,000 are attracted to the position because they've been inspired.
If I could I would edit my second paragraph above that to become:
"The SAGE minutes I posted earlier said they knew about the surge, they wanted it now instead of autumn and winter and there needs to be strong, clear communication about risk prevention to lessen the impact otherwise we could end up with another extreme peak.
The question needed being whether different government's and different ministers are all communicating that well enough?"
The point is that they were aware of the potential pressures that we are witnessing but it is much better to have it now in the summer that try to supress it and get it in the winter when hospitals are harder worked anyway.Originally Posted by surge
And I read somewhere yesterday that the numbers appear to be peeking already. I hope so.
Can you tell me whether there awareness of greater pressure was talking about after July 19th or before? It seems to me that we're getting the much greater pressure on hospitals early with outcomes from this unknown.
Regardless, the important thing is how much the situation remains on a knife-edge and if there is a slow release of "pandemic habits" then expectation is that we can manage well and if there is a quick release it's likely to get very worrying again. It's all about how well that message is communicated and how much it's followed.
Just over 50,000 today too. Does this mean it's levelling out? Until the re-opening kicks in anyway.
Just running out of teenagers, people under 30 and the unvaccinated left to infect……
Absolute case numbers are best examined using a moving average because of reporting delays/snags. To assess emerging trends most localities look at the 7-day moving average.
I'd say we are around 6 weeks/a month behind the UK here but our epi models indicate a third wave.
Just an FYI, the best study of the UK populace I have seen indicates the AZ vaccine is about 60% effective against the (dominant) delta variant so there are a lot of vaccinated people at risk too, cf Mr Javid.
Is that against getting COVID or against getting severe COVID?
It was a study from Scotland of 100k+ people looking at the efficacy of the Pfizer and AZ vaccines in combating the alpha and delta variants. There hasn't been sufficient time since the emergence of the delta variant to look at efficacies in combating "severe" infections.
Another point worth making is there are many people who have had "mild" cases of infection followed by emerging long-term health impacts. So I'm not sure thinking about infections in terms of just their initial severity alone is a useful paradigm.
You're such a cheerful chap aren't you? Can't Group ever say anything optimistic?
🤣😂🤣
What would you have me do? Post happy-clapper conspiracy theories about a deadly virus?
How do you know I'm male? You're betraying your DWEM mindset.
Can't see this lasting with current trends, but nice to see for now anyway and a feather in the cap for Wales.
https://nation.cymru/news/all-of-bri...rt-from-wales/
Just out of interest, I drove back to Poland on Friday & had to get the 1am Eurotunnel train, as most of the others were sold out. At midnight, the Folkestone terminal was heaving with families going to Europe for holidays, hundreds of those were held as they didn’t have the right documentation, to the point where I missed my train and had to get the next one. Last time I did the trip In May there were only 8 cars on a peak time train.
33% of 12-15y olds in USA have had one dose of vaccine already but Telegraph suggesting JCVI decided against mass vaccination of teens in the UK: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bri...ph-2021-07-17/
A big difference in opinion between officials in UK and USA suggested.
Anyway, here's a story about how Gove, Sunak and Boris Johnson have all been randomly put into test-group where they don't have isolate if being in close contact with covid-positive persons. So far no news about which ministers have been put into the other test group that do isolate: https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/stat...65504635310081
I wonder if that will help or hinder the strong, clear communication about the risk prevention needed?
Reminder, SAGE are concerned that if there is too quick a release of "pandemic habits" then we may end up with another extreme peak.
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/stat...285803520?s=19
so apparently we are where we are because the PM didn't believe in doing a lockdown, thought it was all hysteria about nothing.
this should be a huge scandal
Outcome of Delta unknown - with clear communication of risk and slow release of pandemic habits it may be managed effectively - but that comment refers to Autumn as well.
The UK government (acting in England) wanted to protect Christmas shopping more than Christmas shoppers. They didn't learn any lessons until January.
Meanwhile doctors and teachers asking what they need to do to get into the pilot scheme and get as lucky as Gove, Sunak and Johnson have been in their "random" placing.Downing Street feels like a very curious workplace indeed for this pilot programme.
In 17th century Georgian townhouses, the PM and chancellor must avoid:
- being in small, poorly ventilated public spaces for more than 15 minutes
- talking loudly, particularly when indoors
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/...65548180623365
18. As restrictions are lifted it will be important for messaging to communicate the continued risks from COVID-19 and effective mitigations, including information on how to minimise within household spread. SAGE advises that continuing to provide near real time local information on prevalence would be helpful. Communication targeted to both individuals and organisations will be important (https://assets.publishing.service.go..._July_2021.pdf)
Update: Both Johnson and Sunak announcing they will isolate.
Has this been an example of strong and clear communication?
So now you believe every word from the mouth of a man whom a year ago everyone was calling a complete liar.
The man who promised a government committee he would give them all the documentary proof of hat he said and to date has produced absolutely nothing.
That's good then.
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