Interesting read with some good graphs. It backdates the cases the authorities knew about at the time with the actual numbers, along with some other stuff. One big conclusion is


Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca