Just over 50,000 today too. Does this mean it's levelling out? Until the re-opening kicks in anyway.Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
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Just over 50,000 today too. Does this mean it's levelling out? Until the re-opening kicks in anyway.
Just running out of teenagers, people under 30 and the unvaccinated left to infect……
Just an FYI, the best study of the UK populace I have seen indicates the AZ vaccine is about 60% effective against the (dominant) delta variant so there are a lot of vaccinated people at risk too, cf Mr Javid.
Is that against getting COVID or against getting severe COVID?
It was a study from Scotland of 100k+ people looking at the efficacy of the Pfizer and AZ vaccines in combating the alpha and delta variants. There hasn't been sufficient time since the emergence of the delta variant to look at efficacies in combating "severe" infections.
Another point worth making is there are many people who have had "mild" cases of infection followed by emerging long-term health impacts. So I'm not sure thinking about infections in terms of just their initial severity alone is a useful paradigm.
Absolute case numbers are best examined using a moving average because of reporting delays/snags. To assess emerging trends most localities look at the 7-day moving average.
I'd say we are around 6 weeks/a month behind the UK here but our epi models indicate a third wave.
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