Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[lisvaneblue]

If the Indian variant becomes established here and things turn out as bad as some of the modelling suggests, then Governments that allowed travel to and from India this spring deserve criticism no matter what party they represent surely? However, it appears that Wales and Northern Ireland have different rules to England and Scotland. This piece

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56806103

From April talks of there being no direct international flights into Wales and Northern Ireland at that time and as travel into Wales from England was not allowed then I believe, there was an effective ban at that time.

Current rules are set out here;-

https://gov.wales/rules-foreign-trav...-covid-19-html

So, on this subject at least, my reading is that whether you wanted to blame Welsh and Uk Governments equally would be very much down to the individual as it seems Wales could argue that their rules were more stringent.

I think people are losing their perspective on this. However much people argue about politics and apportion blame the truth is that this virus has no respect for rules and regulations, and probably doesn't understand that it is not allowed to cross the Severn Bridge.

Ok Wales has no direct international flights, but that just means that Welsh people wanting to travel go to Heathrow, Manchester, Birmingham etc..travelling further in UK and mixing with more people en route.

When Wales travel restrictions were in place the traffic flow across the Severn Bridge was still very heavy, same on the A55.Life goes on and people have to travel to work and on business. And at the end of their journey they meet other people and the virus spreads.

Personally I think the UK is too small for 4 home nations to play to different rules. Governments, particularly in Wales and Scotland have made this a political blame game.

[surge]

....

Personally I think the UK is too small for 4 home nations to play to different rules. Governments, particularly in Wales and Scotland have made this a political blame game.

But in practice does that mean:

- Places in Glasgow where average lifespan is closer to 60 than 90 are treated the same as the places in London where reverse is true? We know that things like age, health, wealth are useful predictors for worst effects of this virus.

- Central belt of Scotland which had measures put in place during winter much earlier than elsewhere has those measures delayed? We know that over half the death occurred based on spread around this time and England delayed action so much that schools went back for one day in the new year

- On the flip side Scotland was quickest to identify that children and outside were the safest. Does your one nation approach mean young children are more isolated because they still count to the rule of 6 as they did in England for far, far longer? If I remember correctly, young children had to wear masks in England at a much earlier stage too for similar reason.

Of course it makes it far simpler and easier to understand if the rules are the same across 4 nations, but I initially disagree strongly with your analysis (unless you're saying Boris would significantly change his approach to take into consideration the above?) and would be interested to know your answers to questions raised.

[lisvaneblue]

But in practice does that mean:

- Places in Glasgow where average lifespan is closer to 60 than 90 are treated the same as the places in London where reverse is true? We know that things like age, health, wealth are useful predictors for worst effects of this virus.

- Central belt of Scotland which had measures put in place during winter much earlier than elsewhere has those measures delayed? We know that over half the death occurred based on spread around this time and England delayed action so much that schools went back for one day in the new year

- On the flip side Scotland was quickest to identify that children and outside were the safest. Does your one nation approach mean young children are more isolated because they still count to the rule of 6 as they did in England for far, far longer? If I remember correctly, young children had to wear masks in England at a much earlier stage too for similar reason.

Of course it makes it far simpler and easier to understand if the rules are the same across 4 nations, but I initially disagree strongly with your analysis (unless you're saying Boris would significantly change his approach to take into consideration the above?) and would be interested to know your answers to questions raised.

As I said, some people are losing their perspective on this.

In board terms England has 80% population of UK, Scotland 10%, Wales & NI 5% each. What England does is having the biggest impact on UK simply because of the numbers.

Getting into sub groups of the population of Glasgow is the same as getting into sub-groups of the population of Cardiff...it is interesting information, but when you are talking of a virus that has infected 4.5million of us in UK it's hardly relevant.

As you say age, health, wealth are useful predictors and we have used these Uk wide to protect for example the elderly through lockdowns, but if you are suggesting that different rules should apply based on where you live in Cardiff or Glasgow, or London that's impractical and misses the point.

This virus has no regard for who we are, what we are, or our age. All it needs is human to human contact to infect. The rules that have helped keep it at bay are the simple rules that everyone can understand...hygiene, space, stay home etc.
Glad to say the whole of UK adopted these measures. Whether one country does it ahead of another is for debate, because when to comes to results in terms of population protection in UK the outcomes are similar.

[surge]

As I said, some people are losing their perspective on this.

.....

I don't think you've engaged with what I've said, but you might feel I didn't engage with you initially.

This article is interesting: https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/p...-most-20528778

Given list of issues raised, it's likely that a UK approach to engaging with firebreak or stronger restrictions afterwards would have produced a longer lasting dampening down of virus numbers in Wales but, based on the population numbers in each nation which you raised, it's far more likely that Wales would have been in worse position based on no firebreak and even later second lockdown. I would highlight that not testing those moving back into care homes was a one UK approach and is going to be the most difficult thing to explain in reviews.

But as you want to focus on the virus itself, I would agree that the virus isn't sentient and that one approach would have made things easier, and at times more effective, but saying the virus doesn't care about who we are, what we are, or our age suggests a skewed understanding on a) how it spreads and b) where it has the worst impact.

[lisvaneblue]

I don't think you've engaged with what I've said, but you might feel I didn't engage with you initially.

This article is interesting: https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/p...-most-20528778

Given list of issues raised, it's likely that a UK approach to engaging with firebreak or stronger restrictions afterwards would have produced a longer lasting dampening down of virus numbers in Wales but, based on the population numbers in each nation which you raised, it's far more likely that Wales would have been in worse position based on no firebreak and even later second lockdown. I would highlight that not testing those moving back into care homes was a one UK approach and is going to be the most difficult thing to explain in reviews.

But as you want to focus on the virus itself, I would agree that the virus isn't sentient and that one approach would have made things easier, and at times more effective, but saying the virus doesn't care about who we are, what we are, or our age suggests a skewed understanding on a) how it spreads and b) where it has the worst impact.

Thank you for the link to the Wales on line. Maybe Wales does have the worse outcomes, I don't know, but if so it's likely to be because of demographic factors more than anything else. You make some points about what may or may not have been happening in Wales because of political decisions, what Im saying is that these make marginal differences to the UK overall and in many instances are done just to be different. Tomorrow 30 people can gather in England. In Wales in the same circumstances 50 people can gather. Two governments looking at the same data and coming to very different decisions. Its just daft and confuses people.
Then last week our First minister boasting that we have the lowest rates in UK and the best vaccination rates...just politics and unnecessary and not strictly true.

Regarding the virus, I have a very good understanding of microbiology, having worked in the area for many years, and understand how Covid spreads and it's varying impact on individuals based on degree of exposure, age, individuals overall health and their environment.

[surge]

Thank you for the link to the Wales on line. Maybe Wales does have the worse outcomes, I don't know, but if so it's likely to be because of demographic factors more than anything else. You make some points about what may or may not have been happening in Wales because of political decisions, what Im saying is that these make marginal differences to the UK overall and in many instances are done just to be different. Tomorrow 30 people can gather in England. In Wales in the same circumstances 50 people can gather. Two governments looking at the same data and coming to very different decisions. Its just daft and confuses people.
Then last week our First minister boasting that we have the lowest rates in UK and the best vaccination rates...just politics and unnecessary and not strictly true.

Regarding the virus, I have a very good understanding of microbiology, having worked in the area for many years, and understand how Covid spreads and it's varying impact on individuals based on degree of exposure, age, individuals overall health and their environment.

So much to say and not enough time...

We don't know whether Boris would have changed his approach if UK was acting as one but it's likely that i) England would have loudest voice as majority of population lives there and ii) if Wales had more closely followed England's approach throughout Wales would have been in a worse position, as would have Scotland, based on different demographics of population.

There have been petty differences created which don't make sense (different take on what counts as a young person between Scotland and Wales, now crowds outside between Wales and England as you've pointed out in your post); and opportunities missed (we're now waiting for 4 weeks to be able to use the English NHS app for vaccine passports, stronger action after fire-break could have been taken); but also reasons to be happy a different approach was taken (children and outdoor activity recognised as being safer earlier in Scotland, a lower peak in Wales and Scotland during winter despite different demographics); and unhappy when each government acted together (not testing those going into care homes).

Drakeford and Sturgeon have been vocal about wanting a one UK approach but perhaps that's wanting a one UK approach and closer to what they've seen as being needed rather than what Boris has. Stating that you want one UK approach leads onto some big questions about who gets and who misses out on what they want and that follow up is rarely put to those calling for said one approach.

Regarding virus, maybe we're saying same thing from different angles. If who, what, where you are changes degree of exposure and impact on you if you catch it then, to me, the virus does care about those things even if it doesn't know it.

[lisvaneblue]

So much to say and not enough time...

We don't know whether Boris would have changed his approach if UK was acting as one but it's likely that i) England would have loudest voice as majority of population lives there and ii) if Wales had more closely followed England's approach throughout Wales would have been in a worse position, as would have Scotland, based on different demographics of population.

There have been petty differences created which don't make sense (different take on what counts as a young person between Scotland and Wales, now crowds outside between Wales and England as you've pointed out in your post); and opportunities missed (we're now waiting for 4 weeks to be able to use the English NHS app for vaccine passports, stronger action after fire-break could have been taken); but also reasons to be happy a different approach was taken (children and outdoor activity recognised as being safer earlier in Scotland, a lower peak in Wales and Scotland during winter despite different demographics); and unhappy when each government acted together (not testing those going into care homes).

Drakeford and Sturgeon have been vocal about wanting a one UK approach but perhaps that's wanting a one UK approach and closer to what they've seen as being needed rather than what Boris has. Stating that you want one UK approach leads onto some big questions about who gets and who misses out on what they want and that follow up is rarely put to those calling for said one approach.

Regarding virus, maybe we're saying same thing from different angles. If who, what, where you are changes degree of exposure and impact on you if you catch it then, to me, the virus does care about those things even if it doesn't know it.

The virus doesn't care about anything, just replication. The variable is the host. If a large amount of virus is inhaled, if the host immune system is compromised through disease or age, if the environment has continued exposure to it...these are the things that matter.

All this RNA virus needs is adsorption, then penetration into cell cytoplasm, to start its journey of replication.

[the other bob wilson]

I think people are losing their perspective on this. However much people argue about politics and apportion blame the truth is that this virus has no respect for rules and regulations, and probably doesn't understand that it is not allowed to cross the Severn Bridge.

Ok Wales has no direct international flights, but that just means that Welsh people wanting to travel go to Heathrow, Manchester, Birmingham etc..travelling further in UK and mixing with more people en route.

When Wales travel restrictions were in place the traffic flow across the Severn Bridge was still very heavy, same on the A55.Life goes on and people have to travel to work and on business. And at the end of their journey they meet other people and the virus spreads.

Personally I think the UK is too small for 4 home nations to play to different rules. Governments, particularly in Wales and Scotland have made this a political blame game.

I give up. I post something which I think reflects what the scientific community are urging about the Indian variant and people come back attacking the paper carrying the stories because it's "a lefty rag", so I post the same story from a source which has no reputation for being left wing and that gets ignored. Someone then brings up party politics, which I had made no mention of, and I do some research into what the rules are concerning travel to red zone countries like India in Wales compared to other countries in the UK and conclude that whether you think Wales can be blamed in the same way some are seeking to blame the UK Government for not stopping travel to India is very much down to the individual and I'm then told I'm losing perspective

Seeing as others have brought party politics into this, wouldn't it be fair to say that, in general through 2020, the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish Governments were more cautious in their decision making when it came to things like easing regulations last summer and going into lockdowns in the autumn and around Christmas? Therefore, couldn't it be argued that it was the UK/English Government that was playing by "different rules" and not the other three?

[xsnaggle]

I give up. I post something which I think reflects what the scientific community are urging about the Indian variant and people come back attacking the paper carrying the stories because it's "a lefty rag",

Who said it is a left rag? I never saw anyone do that and I don't think the articles deserve dismissal on that basis.

got it now. Silly comment really it detracts from the argument. I think the G often has some very good articles but I also think that some people pick and choose the ones they like to pass on. But that's only natural I suppose

[lisvaneblue]

I give up. I post something which I think reflects what the scientific community are urging about the Indian variant and people come back attacking the paper carrying the stories because it's "a lefty rag", so I post the same story from a source which has no reputation for being left wing and that gets ignored. Someone then brings up party politics, which I had made no mention of, and I do some research into what the rules are concerning travel to red zone countries like India in Wales compared to other countries in the UK and conclude that whether you think Wales can be blamed in the same way some are seeking to blame the UK Government for not stopping travel to India is very much down to the individual and I'm then told I'm losing perspective

Seeing as others have brought party politics into this, wouldn't it be fair to say that, in general through 2020, the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish Governments were more cautious in their decision making when it came to things like easing regulations last summer and going into lockdowns in the autumn and around Christmas? Therefore, couldn't it be argued that it was the UK/English Government that was playing by "different rules" and not the other three?

The English ( UK) Government's actions related to Covid cover 80% approx of the UK population. Wales has a very porous 120 mile long border with England, so whatever England decides has a major effect on the Welsh population. On the big issues we are united UK wide....Hands..Face..Space..Vaccinations..the rest is tinkering around the edges, and being used by Wales and Scotland in particular to make political points.

As I said in the previous post, from today England allows outdoor meetings of groups up to 30 in number. In Wales we allow it for groups up to 50. It's not logical that 50 can meet in Chepstow but only 30 a few miles away in Lydney.
As you know I go camping a lot. As recently as last week I could go to any campsite in England and use the communal toilets. In Wales it was not allowed. If you didn't have on board facilities in you camper van, tough luck. These sorts of differences have a big impact on people but defy logic when it comes to protecting the UK from Covid.
More confusing I could go to a pub in Wales and use the communal toilets, same as England....but not at campsites.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

[/B]

The English ( UK) Government's actions related to Covid cover 80% approx of the UK population. Wales has a very porous 120 mile long border with England, so whatever England decides has a major effect on the Welsh population. On the big issues we are united UK wide....Hands..Face..Space..Vaccinations..the rest is tinkering around the edges, and being used by Wales and Scotland in particular to make political points.

As I said in the previous post, from today England allows outdoor meetings of groups up to 30 in number. In Wales we allow it for groups up to 50. It's not logical that 50 can meet in Chepstow but only 30 a few miles away in Lydney.
As you know I go camping a lot. As recently as last week I could go to any campsite in England and use the communal toilets. In Wales it was not allowed. If you didn't have on board facilities in you camper van, tough luck. These sorts of differences have a big impact on people but defy logic when it comes to protecting the UK from Covid.
More confusing I could go to a pub in Wales and use the communal toilets, same as England....but not at campsites.

For the Welsh and English quangos it's been more about being different. Whenever the Government has introduced rules on numbers of people mixing, whether inside or outside, the Welsh & Scottish have come up with different numbers and scenarios. It's all supposed to be based on the same science /logic, yet surprise surprise, every single rule change has been implemented differently across the UK.

[the other bob wilson]

[/B]

The English ( UK) Government's actions related to Covid cover 80% approx of the UK population. Wales has a very porous 120 mile long border with England, so whatever England decides has a major effect on the Welsh population. On the big issues we are united UK wide....Hands..Face..Space..Vaccinations..the rest is tinkering around the edges, and being used by Wales and Scotland in particular to make political points.

As I said in the previous post, from today England allows outdoor meetings of groups up to 30 in number. In Wales we allow it for groups up to 50. It's not logical that 50 can meet in Chepstow but only 30 a few miles away in Lydney.
As you know I go camping a lot. As recently as last week I could go to any campsite in England and use the communal toilets. In Wales it was not allowed. If you didn't have on board facilities in you camper van, tough luck. These sorts of differences have a big impact on people but defy logic when it comes to protecting the UK from Covid.
More confusing I could go to a pub in Wales and use the communal toilets, same as England....but not at campsites.

None of which alters the basic facts of what I posted. We’re talking about four countries and four different Governments, three of which have tended to follow a more cautious path than the other one and yet it is them who are playing by “different rules” - doesn’t that seem illogical?

To represent the last year and more as being one long example of the Uk/English Government making decisions and then the Welsh/Scottish counterparts doing the opposite just to be contrary is just wrong when you consider how many times the UK Government delayed making inevitable decisions long since taken by Wales and Scotland.

[lisvaneblue]

None of which alters the basic facts of what I posted. We’re talking about four countries and four different Governments, three of which have tended to follow a more cautious path than the other one and yet it is them who are playing by “different rules” - doesn’t that seem illogical?

To represent the last year and more as being one long example of the Uk/English Government making decisions and then the Welsh/Scottish counterparts doing the opposite just to be contrary is just wrong when you consider how many times the UK Government delayed making inevitable decisions long since taken by Wales and Scotland.

I understand the point you are making but cant agree. Yes we are talking about four different Governments in a UK that is compact, barely 600 miles from one end to the other, is totally connected country to country by roads, rail, air and sea. Additionally it has no borders between each country, people barely notice when they travel across country boundaries. ( except for NI)

Devolution has seen individual governments do their own thing over the years but when a 'once in a lifetime' pandemic arrives you would think there would be a uniform approach. In the main areas there is.....Face, Space, Vaccines etc, but after that 'confusion' as each does its own tinkering despite following the same science.

It's confusing, frustrating, and makes it difficult to measure outcomes accurately.