Reply With QuoteNice reply. That was very funny.Originally Posted by Dorcus
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Nice reply. That was very funny.
Nearly 27,000 new cases and I can't help thinking this story is going to make a big impact;-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...19-second-wave
I actually don't think it will have a big impact, there's been a lot of these sweeping statements by now - a month or so back there was talk of was it 50000 deaths by October or something? I think people are a bit fatigued by it and don't really believe statements like this anymore (I'm not saying he's wrong, I have no idea obviously)
50000 cases by the end of October wasn't it
I'd like to agree with you but I can't be bothered. I'm all 'dire warnings' fatigued.
to be fair you could start an argument in an empty lift thoughI'd like to agree with you but I can't be bothered. I'm all 'dire warnings' fatigued.
Now come on, you know how I'm going to reply to that don't you?
Yes, it was and 200 deaths a day by November. I can remember thinking that deaths figure was ridiculous given where it was when the claim was made, but, unfortunately, we're ahead of schedule on that one. There were just short of 200 people died yesterday to follow on from nearly 250 the day before, so we're on schedule for 1,000 Covid deaths in a seven day period and when you look at it like that, the tens of thousands of deaths this winter prediction doesn't look too far wrong. Just as in the spring, we have been a few weeks behind mainland Europe, but, already, this week's daily death's figures are comparing poorly with countries like France, Italy, Spain, Germany etc.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
It's beginning to look like virtually nothing was learned from what happened in the UK in the spring.
Death rates are key here I think Bob. Back in the spring it went from 100 a day to over 1000 a day quite quick, over a 2/3 week period looking at that graph. Cases were always going to go up tenfold now due to the mass testing we are now doing. Next few weeks are critical as this will dictate the whole winter restrictions I think. Death rates keep going up we can forget about lockdowns being lifted. Mainland Europe seems to be in free fall at the moment aswell.
What still amazes me is the general publics attitude — it’s the same people out there who still don’t believe it’s real. I’ll admit I had a good end of summer, didn’t take the piss but went out quite a bit with small groups with the mrs and friends and was nice, thought we were through it and on the road to recovery but clearly it’s now back and I’m prepared to sacrifice as best we can. Haven’t been out since mid September. Chatting to some friends last night however, one said see you in the spring after hibernation, general acceptance of winter restrictions and on my sort of level and the other actually said fancy the pub this evening getting on it before they close!! That’s where in the uk nothing has been learnt as the same folk charging about without a care are still behaving exactly the same way. Mental.
Deaths are linked to the hospital outbreaks aren’t they? If they can just make sure that doesn’t happen I can’t see the numbers going up like before. Vaccine can’t come quick enough......
I don't think death rates are so important now. There's a better understanding of how to deal with the worst cases so I don't think it will be as bad as earlier this year.
However, it is still very infectious and it doesn't have to kill to be a major concern. Long covid worries me more than the death rate.
Most of the positive cases in cardiff are the students In halls which I guess is to be expected.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...dents-19143080
The biggest questions that governments in every part of the UK have to answer are these: the lockdown was justified partly as a means to buy time to put the systems (tracktrace/effective small local lockdowns/mass testing etc) in place which would mean we might not need to...
... return to onerous blanket restrictions either nationally or across large swathes of the country. Given such restrictions are returning- what happened to those systems? What effect have they had? Were these the wrong strategies in the first place? And now do we need new ones?
Because though obviously the acute problem of the rising cases is worrying, perhaps the bigger worry is the strategic one: the fact we’re at all and there’s not much sense yet from any politician of how we prevent it again, while we wait for a vaccine, which may never come.
So in short: is it the same strategies but better executed? Or something different?
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/st...39528249171968How can the strategies the UK has invested in be doing so badly? Can't fully blame Serco as they're only a part of it, for same reason probably can't fully blame Dido Harding though certainly hasn't demonstrated any expertise yet. Don't even start on isolating vulnerable because there are so many problems with that it's a last resort after exhausting everything else rather than go-to as some are suggesting.NEW: Once again Test and Trace in England has its worst week yet. Just 59.6% of close contacts of people infected were reached in the week to 14th October. Down from 63% from the previous week.
Experts say that the hit rate needs to be at least 80% to be effective.
In addition, only 15.1% of people who undertook an on site in person test received their result in 24 hours.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/st...27391336730624
Who is running Test and Trace: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...b68d1b09c77477
Of course outside companies are running it. The NHS hasn't got the expertise or resources to do it. Do you think it builds its own hospitals, or makes all the medicines used? Of course not. Same with Test and Trace
The Government more or less admitted defeat today didn't it? They were proclaiming that an R rate of 1.5 was a good effort. Essentially, it means that the virus is spreading exponentially.
Are you trying to say that there were no other options such as building on the existing local government infrastructure that was already in place rather than consciously building a centralised privately led privately run system that Boris Johnson today, after Ł12b of public money has been spent said "was helping a bit".
The BMJ certainly seemed to think so when they looked at how Germany had taken the former path rather than the latter. They called it lessons learned but I guess we will need to wait for the public enquiry to see if this has any grounding in fact.
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2522
At the same time local public health services were mobilised and revitalised. In April both federal and state governments agreed to provide additional investment to strengthen local public health authorities.8 Civil servants were redeployed to public health from elsewhere and extra staff employed to support local contact tracing. Germany built on existing infrastructure and experience from the outset, unlike England, where local public health departments were overlooked in favour of a centralised system run by outsourced companies.
Later, as population restrictions were being lifted, chancellor Angela Merkel and the prime ministers of the federal states agreed that local authorities should have five contact tracers for every 20 000 citizens.9 Inexperience of new staff members was overcome by embedding them in experienced organisational structures, helping to limit the difficulties reported in England.10
My message was that the NHS is not capable of running the Test and Trace system without outside commercial assistance. Im not saying that we took the best path, as obviously we haven't.
As usual we have a cumbersome system in UK, where health authorities and local authorities do not align geographically, where social care and medical care responsibilities and budgets sit in different pots ( except n Ireland), making it much more difficult for us to do what Germany did so effectively. Plus of course devolved governments wanting to tweak even the most straightforward plans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-54648194
Supermarkets will be unable to sell items like clothes during the 17-day Covid firebreak lockdown in Wales.
Does anyone think this is a good idea?
Yes.
Yes. The more people are out and in contact with others, the more the virus will spread.
I think it would be a good idea if people were limited to 1 hour in there, not sure how that could be done.
I also think a 17 day lockdown is too little, too late.
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