https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdfOriginally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish
This is the report linked in the article. It is all in there
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https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf
This is the report linked in the article. It is all in there
I don't know why we didn't all get imposed self isolation a month ago, short term pain for long term gain.
It's going to be like this for 3 months now I'd say, especially because for some reason schools are still open.
The effect on the economy is going to be huge, I can't imagine how most businesses are going to survive this.
The report suggests a lot longer than that
Maybe yes, but balanced against how many people back then thought it was a fuss over nothing (let alone now) it would never have worked.
Can you really see millions of people locking themselves away for twelve weeks at any time? Judging by what France are doing, I think it's not just the elderly and the vulnerable that will be expected to do it soon - people will start off with good intentions, but will soon start rebelling and risking whatever punishment they'll be threatened with.
I honestly don't think our Govt. - or any govt. for that matter - seriously expects the 12/14 weeks quarantine to be maintained. My hunch is they're hoping for something like 2 weeks before everyone starts 'breaking out'. Much better than telling people it's going to be 2 weeks and then seeing people on the streets after 2/3 days.
If I'm wrong and the timescales are accurate, there won't be anything left to return to - jobs, business, economy, nothing..
Has anyone read the Imperial College study? It can be found here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf
There are hundreds of thousands of very worried people who can't financially support themselves for any real length of time (see majority of the self-employed, lower wages, or single parent families) and we've just had 10 years of cuts to services that are now going to be relied on.The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.
Quarantine cannot last more than 2 weeks. We have 2 Bank holidays in April, and another 2 in May. They can combine all 4 into one week - maybe add in the August Bank Holiday too. Five days. They could then force people to take a week annual leave, and enforce a quarantine. Enough time for people to sit at home, show symptoms, recover or show no symptoms at all. Theoretically, and with borders closed, that should be the end of cases developed in the country. The next issue then is who to re-open borders to. I'd say only to countries that have had no reported cases for 14 days.
Isolation is the main weapon, I think. Like you say, if it is more than that - even with home working, many people will be out of work.
never mind quarantine they will have riots on there hands next...
im already an out of work nightclub dj... club has not yet officially announced it will close but with no help from gov regarding health or police care... how can they guarantee your safety so... public liability insurance will be void and without that you cant hold a mass gathering in a venue... so thats me out of work already
my mrs is out of work at the end of the week... her store she works in has done there own forecast model and will be shutting up shop laying everyone off... yes she will get a little payout but it will amount to around £500 which wont buy a few packs a bog roll at this rate... so in a matter of days we are both out of work... yeah i know millions if not billions worldwide will soon be too
but its all bonkers... folks cant go to bars clubs theatre but my kids can go to school on stinking buses and mix with 1,500 other kids plus teachers and parents... ???
cant go to the pub where there a few people but can go to school... ok
flybe went into admin like a day into this drama... ok give or so a few days and they were already in deep trouble but a day... back when we were all laughing this off for flu... aviation has been hit hard obviously, grounding fleets of planes laying off thousands of staff... but before they announced border cut offs and incoming flights from other countries ??? ok
folks will be destitute and will riot and loot what ever the stores have left...im sure of it
how is all this happening righ now
Sorry to hear all that. Yeah a lot of people are going to be in trouble. Things won't ever be the same after this.
thanks mate... im home with my 4 year old daughter who had a asthma attack last week.. .so shes not going to school anyways...
and wheres my mrs... she starts work at 3pm today for the last few shifts... and where is she now, out there with what ever fuel we have left in the car shopping for the elderly... one in a million she is
I am not generally a gloom and doom merchant on here but I have also thought that looting may very well be a problem in the coming months.
We rioted for a week almost country wide because a drug dealer got shot on the way to kill someone.
I can only imagine what it will be like once businesses go under and people stop getting paid.
If I was a delivery driver for one of those supermarkets I'd be worried as well - likelihood of being "held up" by 21st century highwaymen must be a possibility...
i cant believe wqe are even having to talk about all this my heads blown...
i can imagine some desperate folks will go to other measures to feed there kids... and some will do it for pure personal gain
for me im also a little worried about communications... with no money coming in, bills wont get paid... broadband mobile phone and such... virgin will no doubt cut us off as i have not heard they will freeze bills so no pay no play... wont be long and ill be shut off
i would have thought that from the point you stop paying it will take a couple of months to get to the point where you no longer have service - and by that time government intervention will have done something about it.
anyway lets hope so.
Food and power are the main things you need to have.
There were people looting the houses down Nantgarw that were abandoned during the floods.
Nothing will surprise me.
Are you for real?
Imagine firstly trying to make this a partisan issue, then once you’ve done that trying to defend the current governments slow reaction to this even in the face of all the evidence.
Mozz, you are absolutely right.
One of the largest employers in the city where I live, is a car company (Wuling). They set up a medical mask production line within about a week.
Their huge army of mechanical /electrical engineers, in conjunction with the machinery manufacturers, soon had a production line running.
Sounds a terrible situation mate, hopefully it doesn’t hit you too hard. The government have to put something in place for people who are struggling otherwise you’re right there will be riots.
God knows why schools are still open, it seems completely mad to me.
cheers bro, me too...
every day i go up to bed and hope to wake up and it was all a dream... only every day it just gets worse
The editor of the Lancet is quoted as saying
"We have wasted 7 weeks. This crisis was entirely preventable"
The same Lancet who backed Wakefield re vaccination causing autism claims?
The same Lancet that retracted the Wakefield article more than a decade ago. That's a pretty weak attempt at discrediting a pretty widely respected journal.
F*cking hell you have to be on a wind up.
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