Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[Veg1960]

Thats the term he used. People enjoying chisitmas at home and not doing things like catching trains buses etc and not going to work in factories office and so on had a benefical effect on the numbers, as in didn't made them worse than they would have been but in fact helped to supress them.
I know you know what was meant but you're just being a pedant so we'll end our cchat.

How about posting a link to the professor's comments, then we can all form our own opinions about it?

[xsnaggle]

How about posting a link to the professor's comments, then we can all form our own opinions about it?

Can't or I would 'ave done. I was on World at 1. Radio 4.
But whats to form an opinion about? People alrady have their opinions. This just what 1 professor said. It is what it is.

[Veg1960]

Can't or I would 'ave done. I was on World at 1. Radio 4.
But whats to form an opinion about? People alrady have their opinions. This just what 1 professor said. It is what it is.

I was just trying to form a clearer picture of the point you were trying to make. If I remember correctly the Christmas relaxation of rules only applied to Christmas day anyway, so no one would have been in factories or on buses in any case

[Allez Allez Allez]

Thats the term he used. People enjoying chisitmas at home and not doing things like catching trains buses etc and not going to work in factories office and so on had a benefical effect on the numbers, as in didn't made them worse than they would have been but in fact helped to supress them.
I know you know what was meant but you're just being a pedant so we'll end our cchat.

That wasn't the term he used at all.

He said

"
The decline in January was almost certainly because of the Christmas period, being as people were staying at home more. Although there were concerns that Christmas may drive the epidemic, the evidence is that Christmas probably reduced the epidemic. Because people were at home, they weren't going out to work. Schools were closed and, since then, case numbers have dropped far more rapidly than I was expecting with this new variant. This is driving my optimism".

The point you are referring to is at around the 17 minute mark on this link.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000rvp7

[lardy]

That wasn't the term he used at all.

He said

"
The decline in January was almost certainly because of the Christmas period, being as people were staying at home more. Although there were concerns that Christmas may drive the epidemic, the evidence is that Christmas probably reduced the epidemic. Because people were at home, they weren't going out to work. Schools were closed and, since then, case numbers have dropped far more rapidly than I was expecting with this new variant. This is driving my optimism".

The point you are referring to is at around the 17 minute mark on this link.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000rvp7

This is a lot more helpful.

[Heisenberg]

Thats the term he used. People enjoying chisitmas at home and not doing things like catching trains buses etc and not going to work in factories office and so on had a benefical effect on the numbers, as in didn't made them worse than they would have been but in fact helped to supress them.
I know you know what was meant but you're just being a pedant so we'll end our cchat.

Not being pedantic at all. You're just missing my point.

Lockdown had a beneficial effect. We can both agree on that. The things you've mentioned are due to the lockdown.

The criticism aimed at the Govt. was allowing mixing households at Christmas.

Do you think the professor was saying that allowing mixing households had a beneficial effect?

[the other bob wilson]

Everyone seems to be in agreement that the roll out of vaccines is being handled well, but, as for rewriting history and trying to claim that UK Government dithering and inaction regarding Christmas was somehow a good thing, forget it.

[xsnaggle]

Everyone seems to be in agreement that the roll out of vaccines is being handled well, but, as for rewriting history and trying to claim that UK Government dithering and inaction regarding Christmas was somehow a good thing, forget it.

I has nothing to do with government, what he was saying was because people were moving around less because of the christmas break there was less passing on of infections so if christmas hadn't happened the numbers would have been even higher. That's all.

[the other bob wilson]

I has nothing to do with government, what he was saying was because people were moving around less because of the christmas break there was less passing on of infections so if christmas hadn't happened the numbers would have been even higher. That's all.

So, there would have been even less passing on of infections if the UK Government had announced a lockdown when it was needed instead of trying to “rescue Christmas” and figures in Wales would have been better if the WAG had been less keen on getting things back to “normal” so quickly after the Firebreak ended in early November. As I said, credit to both Governments for the vaccine, but the people being saved by the rapid rolling out of said vaccine are a drop in the ocean compared to the number who have died in the UK in the last eleven months - I read an article last week that said their success with the vaccine was like scoring a penalty in the last ten minutes when you were 10-0 down as far as the UK Government is concerned, I think that’s a bit cruel, but the sentiment behind it is right.

[Allez Allez Allez]

So, there would have been even less passing on of infections if the UK Government had announced a lockdown when it was needed instead of trying to “rescue Christmas” and figures in Wales would have been better if the WAG had been less keen on getting things back to “normal” so quickly after the Firebreak ended in early November.

Yes. The evidence is suppressing movement of people suppresses movement of the virus. Amazing that we are nearly a year into this, and this still point is still needed to be made, isn't it?

[Vindec]

As I said, credit to both Governments for the vaccine, but the people being saved by the rapid rolling out of said vaccine are a drop in the ocean compared to the number who have died in the UK in the last eleven months .

That's a bit unfair. The rapid roll out of the vaccine, the selection of the right vaccines and the decision not to use the EMA for procurement of the vaccine could well end up saving in excess of the number of lives lost. Time will tell whether that is correct.

[the other bob wilson]

That's a bit unfair. The rapid roll out of the vaccine, the selection of the right vaccines and the decision not to use the EMA for procurement of the vaccine could well end up saving in excess of the number of lives lost. Time will tell whether that is correct.

I’m talking about the period up to mid February - as I mentioned earlier, it’s akin to scoring a late goal when you’re being thrashed.

[Croesy Blue]

That's a bit unfair. The rapid roll out of the vaccine, the selection of the right vaccines and the decision not to use the EMA for procurement of the vaccine could well end up saving in excess of the number of lives lost. Time will tell whether that is correct.

All 3 of those things are related to the vaccine aren't they?

If it hadn't been so poorly mismanaged early on maybe we wouldn't have needed this to be saving lives more just opening up the country.

[Croesy Blue]

I has nothing to do with government, what he was saying was because people were moving around less because of the christmas break there was less passing on of infections so if christmas hadn't happened the numbers would have been even higher. That's all.

Yeah but that has nothing to do with the mixing being allowed on Christmas Day, that and what was originally going to be 5 days of mixing, are what people are saying would have led to a big increase.

No one was saying Christmas shouldn’t happen because of the virus.

[xsnaggle]

Everyone seems to be in agreement that the roll out of vaccines is being handled well, but, as for rewriting history and trying to claim that UK Government dithering and inaction regarding Christmas was somehow a good thing, forget it.

I has nothing to do with government, what he was saying was because people were moving around less because of the christmas break there was less passing on of infections so if christmas hadn't happened the numbers would have been even higher. That's all.

[Hilts]

Infection rate in Wales at its lowest since 4th October.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...ction-19783843

[surge]

Dozens of countries with South African and Brazilian Covid variants left off quarantine ‘red list’

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d...list-w0jbd3ckt

Covid: Oxford jab protection against South Africa variant 'limited' (The preliminary findings from a small study of more than 2,000 people have not yet been peer-reviewed.)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55967767

We're coming up to a year on from our scientists/politicians choosing not to close any borders due to the virus being so prevalent within the UK it wasn't seen as a good idea. What are the odds that we're going to repeat this?

In more positive news, test positivity rate in Wales figures released yesterday was just 7.67%. The lower this and infections go the more likely test-and-trace will work as desired.

[Croesy Blue]

We're coming up to a year on from our scientists/politicians choosing not to close any borders due to the virus being so prevalent within the UK it wasn't seen as a good idea. What are the odds that we're going to repeat this?

In more positive news, test positivity rate in Wales figures released yesterday was just 7.67%. The lower this and infections go the more likely test-and-trace will work as desired.

I think that article on the bbc website is a bit misleading, AZ still seem to think it will protect against severe forms of the SA variant. If there's a slight dip in efficacy against mild and moderate forms of it, it really wouldn't be that bad.

[Gofer Blue]

We're coming up to a year on from our scientists/politicians choosing not to close any borders due to the virus being so prevalent within the UK it wasn't seen as a good idea. What are the odds that we're going to repeat this?

In more positive news, test positivity rate in Wales figures released yesterday was just 7.67%. The lower this and infections go the more likely test-and-trace will work as desired.

Finally HM Gov have woken up to the fact that maybe, just maybe, people coming into the UK from abroad could be bringing in the virus. How else would the Brazilian and South African strains have got here? Migratory birds perhaps? Scotland has the right idea - forget the red list nonsense - anyone coming into Scotland from anywhere abroad is now required to quarantine in an hotel at a cost of £1700 per person. However you can bet that some clowns will jet into Manchester or Birmingham and then drive up to Scotland.

[Rjk]

Finally HM Gov have woken up to the fact that maybe, just maybe, people coming into the UK from abroad could be bringing in the virus. How else would the Brazilian and South African strains have got here? Migratory birds perhaps? Scotland has the right idea - forget the red list nonsense - anyone coming into Scotland from anywhere abroad is now required to quarantine in an hotel at a cost of £1700 per person. However you can bet that some clowns will jet into Manchester or Birmingham and then drive up to Scotland.

Maybe 2 swallows carried the virus between them

[Gofer Blue]

Maybe 2 swallows carried the virus between them

An under-covid operation no doubt.

[blue matt]

Finally HM Gov have woken up to the fact that maybe, just maybe, people coming into the UK from abroad could be bringing in the virus. How else would the Brazilian and South African strains have got here? Migratory birds perhaps? Scotland has the right idea - forget the red list nonsense - anyone coming into Scotland from anywhere abroad is now required to quarantine in an hotel at a cost of £1700 per person. However you can bet that some clowns will jet into Manchester or Birmingham and then drive up to Scotland.

you have the answer right there, just drive up from a airport in england / wales, we know plenty will do it

I know someone who flew to florida ( when we could travel ) they flew to europe, then to a Caribbean island ( where they isolated for 10 days in a beach side Villa ) then flew onto the US where once again they isolated for 10 days ( they have a holiday home in florida )

took them 24 days from door to door, but they got to spend christmas and the winter in the sun

[goats]

Almost under 100 per 100k in Wales now....tier one.....yet everyone I know feels like Jack Nicholson in the Shining

[Hilts]

Wales figures

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...ction-19800519

[goats]

Wales figures

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...ction-19800519

Looking good as ever, back to September levels. I’m sure our esteemed government will end the suffering by July