Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[the other bob wilson]

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Paul Davies took over from Andrew RT Davies back in September 2018.

I will be replying to the post you wrote in response to my ( factual and non political!) post about Friday's Nervtag meeting on this topic so I won't duplicate it here.

Sorry about getting the what's in it for me party's leader in Wales wrong, but it makes no difference to my point.

[Elwood Blues]

So, what you're saying then is that your party political point scoring messages regarding Keri Starmer were a bit pointless and unjustified - Johnson and Drakeford were right to take the actions they did. I don't normally need any second invitation to criticise Johnson, but I haven't and won't over this - it's ridiculous to compliment Johnson on the one hand and then look to slag Labour off on the other when both parties have made very similar decisions.

I never said Boris and Drakeford were wrong to take the action they did,


I was in fact criticising Sir Keir for slagging off the UK Government when not saying anything when the Labour administration in Wales does something similar. I realise he has no actual control over the Welsh government but you would have thought they would have both sung from the same hymn sheet.

And just to ( I hope) clarify things my original post which stimulated some debate to which you then responded to said

"I presume That If Keir Starmer is criticising Boris about the late Christmas change, he has also been on the phone to tell Mark Drakeford off for doing the same???

He avoided a question about the response of the devolved administrations on Sky this morning.

I don't trust either of the leaders of our two main parties at all. Different characters, both untrustworthy."


As you see no criticism of Drakeford aqnd in my final paragraph criticism of BOTH main parties

[Elwood Blues]

Sorry about getting the what's in it for me party's leader in Wales wrong, but it makes no difference to my point.

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To be honest it has taken me ages to remember him even with a common name like Davies

My reply to your post on the Nervtag meeting might but I have no great hopes!!

[Elwood Blues]

It's not a very nice thing to say, but I've got to the stage where I'm a little bit blasé about daily death figures, but I couldn't help noticing that there were 69 deaths reported in Wales in today's figures - apparently, that's the most in a day since figures started being recorded in March and this on a weekend when the numbers are supposed to be lower.
Condolences to all friends and family of the 69 deceased.

Don't know what the figures are where you are Bob, but my son lives in Bridgend and he says that the number of cases is over 1,000 per 100,000 there.

He isn't coming down over Christmas.

[the other bob wilson]

Don't know what the figures are where you are Bob, but my son lives in Bridgend and he says that the number of cases is over 1,000 per 100,000 there.

He isn't coming down over Christmas.

Your son is right - see what is the Covid case rate in this link;-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55384502

[the other bob wilson]

I never said Boris and Drakeford were wrong to take the action they did,


I was in fact criticising Sir Keir for slagging off the UK Government when not saying anything when the Labour administration in Wales does something similar. I realise he has no actual control over the Welsh government but you would have thought they would have both sung from the same hymn sheet.

And just to ( I hope) clarify things my original post which stimulated some debate to which you then responded to said

"I presume That If Keir Starmer is criticising Boris about the late Christmas change, he has also been on the phone to tell Mark Drakeford off for doing the same???

He avoided a question about the response of the devolved administrations on Sky this morning.

I don't trust either of the leaders of our two main parties at all. Different characters, both untrustworthy."


As you see no criticism of Drakeford aqnd in my final paragraph criticism of BOTH main parties

Apologies Elwood, I was wrong to include you in my criticism.

I see that the new variant was first noticed in September and so I think it's reasonable to assume that the four U.K. Governments have been aware of it for weeks if not months, so they could well have known that there may be something like what was revealed in those minutes on the way, but it was only confirmed on Friday and so I wonder if the delay in announcing new lockdowns, which I was critical of, could be partly down to a sense of "let's wait and see what the research into the variant comes up with before deciding"?

[Vindec]

Apologies Elwood, I was wrong to include you in my criticism.

I see that the new variant was first noticed in September and so I think it's reasonable to assume that the four U.K. Governments have been aware of it for weeks if not months, so they could well have known that there may be something like what was revealed in those minutes on the way, but it was only confirmed on Friday and so I wonder if the delay in announcing new lockdowns, which I was critical of, could be partly down to a sense of "let's wait and see what the research into the variant comes up with before deciding"?

For clarification Dr Susan Hopkins of Public Health England stated this morning the mutation in question was first known about in October based on a September sample. Apparently there are very many mutations in existence and each one is investigated by Public Health England and their research partners including Imperial College. As the virus progressed the task was to establish whether the increasing numbers suffering from COVID could be linked to one of the mutated virus under investigation which took some time and eventually led to the release on Friday of the results as you acknowledge.

I don't think it was a question of "let's wait and see" as more often than not the mutations under investigation have little or no effect on the virus spreading. It just so happens that they found one that affected virus transmission and that was linked to the increasing numbers and caused the government to introduce the new restrictions one day later.

[Gofer Blue]

I actually felt sorry for Matt Hancock on the Andrew Marr programme this morning. He looked close to tears at one point - what a thankless job. It is unusual for a politician to come out and say that actually it is dear old Joe Public to blame for the spread of the virus by their selfish attitude; however Hancock was visibly annoyed when he saw the video of the mass exodus at one of the London main line stations and actually said so too!

[Eric Cartman]

Bit of deliberate misdirection (or maybe people genuinely missing the point) going on in this thread. I don't think anybody would reasonably expect the government to be able to predict the unpredictable but they should not have given the impression weeks ago that Christmas was going to be normal when things were on a knife edge and really they didn't know.

As usual, they have taken the credit/praise/joy when making the big announcement (see track and trace, PPE, etc) and then when they fail to deliver they tell you how hard it was and why it wasnt their fault (and in this case how it is actually your fault). In real life that is called 'over promising and under delivering' and is usually a case of somebody being naive or optimistic. Unfortunately this isnt the case with this government, it is a big part of their cynical playbook. They rely on weak questioning from the media and a fast news cycle which disposes of the 'bad news' story as soon as it appears.

They don't deserve a shred of sympathy because as usual it was entirely their perogative to set the stage the way they have. Another way to look at this is that if someone is deliberately seeking sympathy then they probably don't deserve it.

[the other bob wilson]

For clarification Dr Susan Hopkins of Public Health England stated this morning the mutation in question was first known about in October based on a September sample. Apparently there are very many mutations in existence and each one is investigated by Public Health England and their research partners including Imperial College. As the virus progressed the task was to establish whether the increasing numbers suffering from COVID could be linked to one of the mutated virus under investigation which took some time and eventually led to the release on Friday of the results as you acknowledge.

I don't think it was a question of "let's wait and see" as more often than not the mutations under investigation have little or no effect on the virus spreading. It just so happens that they found one that affected virus transmission and that was linked to the increasing numbers and caused the government to introduce the new restrictions one day later.

And for further clarification, Andrew Marr also interviewed the WHO's "technical lead" with the virus yesterday and she said they had been aware of the mutation for "several weeks". Also, a study by scientists that I can't find a link for at the moment said that the mutation was first noticed in September, while this piece from the Financial Times;-

https://www.ft.com/content/a0bef737-...3-0649dc5989a0

states that the mutation was responsible for twenty eight per cent of new cases in early November in London and over sixty per cent in the same city by the week ending December 9 - if Johnson, and the leaders of the devolved Governments, hadn't been made aware of those figures at the time, then some very serious questions need to be asked of the relevant scientific communities as to why they hadn't. Far more likely for me is that the leaders of the various Governments were aware of what was happening and yet we still got the plans for the five day Christmas "break" being announced.

This brings me on to Eric Cartman's point about how Johnson especially has talked about the pandemic. Because he's someone who, it seems, has to sugar coat bad news with a "but" which has never turned out to come to fruition when it comes to Covid, we've had plenty of big promises and predictions which have come to nothing over a period of at least nine months.

It seems pretty clear that the extent of the problem caused by the new variant only became clear on Friday and so, finally, we saw some decisive action from Johnson and his Government in announcing the plans to try and tackle it the following day - credit to them for that, but they, and, to a lesser extent the devolved Governments, were dragging their feet prior to Friday's revelation and I think that might have had something to do with the hope that the researchers would come back with something to say that the mutation may not be as bad as they feared it was.

[the other bob wilson]

I actually felt sorry for Matt Hancock on the Andrew Marr programme this morning. He looked close to tears at one point - what a thankless job. It is unusual for a politician to come out and say that actually it is dear old Joe Public to blame for the spread of the virus by their selfish attitude; however Hancock was visibly annoyed when he saw the video of the mass exodus at one of the London main line stations and actually said so too!

I didn't. Hancock wasn't above helping his mate the landlord get a very lucrative PPE contract and defended Cummings' jaunt up to Durham which, for me, has always been the single biggest reason for the breakdown in trust that has occurred between people and Government which has occurred since then. The attitude of "if it was alright for Dominic Cummings it's alright for me" was, I'm pretty sure, in the minds of some of those people Hancock branded as selfish for catching those trains on Saturday night - if the public are now behaving in a way which is helping the spread of the virus, there is no way the UK Government can say that their actions through 2020 have had nothing to do with such behaviour.

[billy.ronson]

So does the new strain knock "Herd immunity" on the head? Forget politics, (England, Wales and Scotland leaders are all different parties and none have succeeded in controlling the virus) the UK has done an awful job of dealing with this virus since day one. A pity the EU and other countries didn't lock us down in spring when this first started or in the summer when people were flying everywhere to create these new strains!!

[goats]

So does the new strain knock "Herd immunity" on the head? Forget politics, (England, Wales and Scotland leaders are all different parties and none have succeeded in controlling the virus) the UK has done an awful job of dealing with this virus since day one. A pity the EU and other countries didn't lock us down in spring when this first started or in the summer when people were flying everywhere to create these new strains!!

Don’t know, as it’s the same virus it’s probably the same outcome. We should have been devious like the Chinese and covered it up

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Don’t know, as it’s the same virus it’s probably the same outcome. We should have been devious like the Chinese and covered it up

Lockdowns haven't worked. They've actually accelerated the spread - here and also in other European countries. Whilst isolated cases of bad behaviour have occurred, the pubs, bars, cafes, restaurants have helped keep people take enjoyment in a 'controlled' environment. The blanket closure/restrictions have driven them behind closed doors in houses and flats instead, in close proximity to friends and family - of all ages. Wasn't it in early March we were going to 'flatted the curve' ?

I think folk are beginning to realise that 'lockdowns' are now as much politically as medically motivated.

[Vindec]

I didn't. Hancock wasn't above helping his mate the landlord get a very lucrative PPE contract and defended Cummings' jaunt up to Durham which, for me, has always been the single biggest reason for the breakdown in trust that has occurred between people and Government which has occurred since then. The attitude of "if it was alright for Dominic Cummings it's alright for me" was, I'm pretty sure, in the minds of some of those people Hancock branded as selfish for catching those trains on Saturday night - if the public are now behaving in a way which is helping the spread of the virus, there is no way the UK Government can say that their actions through 2020 have had nothing to do with such behaviour.

There is a lot of speculation about Hancock giving contracts to his mates.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-establishment

https://www.ft.com/content/7bf2fbdc-...4-fac15ecfc222

These articles are at first sight compelling and will be investigated when full details of the contracts are revealed.

What is of no doubt is the failure of the Government to deal appropriately with the Cummings debacle. He should have been sacked there and then. However, it's a big leap to suggest that those catching trains on Saturday have anything to do with the Cummings affair. It might be used as an excuse by those transgressing the rules but that doesn't wash with me.

Seeing those on London train stations probably didn't give Cummings a second thought; their driving force was to get home for Xmas and had nothing to do with Cummings. Irrespective of Cummings they would have gone anyway. Indeed the youngsters cavorting around the streets in the North of England on the weekend probably had never heard of Cummings.

While the public in general have obeyed the restrictions throughout the various lockdowns there are very many individuals that have ignored the rules and have rightfully been branded idiots as indeed was Cummings.

[caerkid]

I was in fact criticising Sir Keir for slagging off the UK Government when not saying anything when the Labour administration in Wales does something similar. I realise he has no actual control over the Welsh government but you would have thought they would have both sung from the same hymn sheet.

"I presume That If Keir Starmer is criticising Boris about the late Christmas change, he has also been on the phone to tell Mark Drakeford off for doing the same???

And to be fair whenever the Tories trot out their stock response to Starmer that "this isn't the time to play politics" and everyone should "get behind the government" they always caveat it with the statement "* doesn't apply in countries where we are the opposition"

[lardy]

Lockdowns haven't worked. They've actually accelerated the spread - here and also in other European countries. Whilst isolated cases of bad behaviour have occurred, the pubs, bars, cafes, restaurants have helped keep people take enjoyment in a 'controlled' environment. The blanket closure/restrictions have driven them behind closed doors in houses and flats instead, in close proximity to friends and family - of all ages. Wasn't it in early March we were going to 'flatted the curve' ?

I think folk are beginning to realise that 'lockdowns' are now as much politically as medically motivated.

This is not correct. A lockdown does not increase the spread of the virus.

Logically that makes no sense, and there's no evidence for it.

And I've no idea how they are politically motivated

[the other bob wilson]

There is a lot of speculation about Hancock giving contracts to his mates.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-establishment

https://www.ft.com/content/7bf2fbdc-...4-fac15ecfc222

These articles are at first sight compelling and will be investigated when full details of the contracts are revealed.

What is of no doubt is the failure of the Government to deal appropriately with the Cummings debacle. He should have been sacked there and then. However, it's a big leap to suggest that those catching trains on Saturday have anything to do with the Cummings affair. It might be used as an excuse by those transgressing the rules but that doesn't wash with me.

Seeing those on London train stations probably didn't give Cummings a second thought; their driving force was to get home for Xmas and had nothing to do with Cummings. Irrespective of Cummings they would have gone anyway. Indeed the youngsters cavorting around the streets in the North of England on the weekend probably had never heard of Cummings.

While the public in general have obeyed the restrictions throughout the various lockdowns there are very many individuals that have ignored the rules and have rightfully been branded idiots as indeed was Cummings.

I took care to say some of those catching trains will have thought of Dominic Cummings, but, when you think back to the spring, high profile people such as that Professor Ferguson and the lady who is Chief Medical Officer of Scotland, to name but two, had to resign after breaking the rules. then we saw politicians like Robert Jenrick and Stephen Kinnock brazening it out before Cummings, frankly, took the piss out of us all. The spring lockdown was, generally, well observed and, for a while, an "all in it together" attitude prevailed, but Cummings especially changed all of that as people twigged that, at has always been the case, there is one rule for almost all of us and another one for the favoured few - that's what drives the sort of actions seen on Saturday night in London.

[the other bob wilson]

So does the new strain knock "Herd immunity" on the head? Forget politics, (England, Wales and Scotland leaders are all different parties and none have succeeded in controlling the virus) the UK has done an awful job of dealing with this virus since day one. A pity the EU and other countries didn't lock us down in spring when this first started or in the summer when people were flying everywhere to create these new strains!!

This is a part of this whole thing which has always baffled me. A brand new lethal virus arrives on the scene at the end of 2019 and within no time we have all sorts of people stating with great certainty what will be happening in the coming months and years. Even genuine experts when it comes to the science surely could not have been totally sure what was going to happen, yet throughout 2020 we have had people on this football messageboard who have claimed they know precisely what is happening and what will happen.
I'm not an expert, but, as far as herd immunity goes, the same question has always occurred to me and I'm unaware of it ever having been answered. If we've been living through the first wave of a new virus, how can the sort of people who got to make what is now looking like a disastrous decision in Sweden have been able to say for certain that you will not get Covid once you've had it? There is evidence of people catching the virus twice, so, even if this is only happening to a small number, doesn't this knock the whole concept of herd immunity on the head?

[Allez Allez Allez]

This is not correct. A lockdown does not increase the spread of the virus.

Logically that makes no sense, and there's no evidence for it.

And I've no idea how they are politically motivated

Thanks for pulling him up on his misinformation which has, most likely, come from a source that is politically motivated.

Lockdowns would be more effective if people followed the rules, of course. The reason they are put in place is to restrict those people who have a sense of moral duty to their fellow citizens. For others, they carry on as usual and moan about there being nowhere to drink and down the road there are ITUs full of dying people.

[Allez Allez Allez]

This is a part of this whole thing which has always baffled me. A brand new lethal virus arrives on the scene at the end of 2019 and within no time we have all sorts of people stating with great certainty what will be happening in the coming months and years. Even genuine experts when it comes to the science surely could not have been totally sure what was going to happen, yet throughout 2020 we have had people on this football messageboard who have claimed they know precisely what is happening and what will happen.
I'm not an expert, but, as far as herd immunity goes, the same question has always occurred to me and I'm unaware of it ever having been answered. If we've been living through the first wave of a new virus, how can the sort of people who got to make what is now looking like a disastrous decision in Sweden have been able to say for certain that you will not get Covid once you've had it? There is evidence of people catching the virus twice, so, even if this is only happening to a small number, doesn't this knock the whole concept of herd immunity on the head?

Herd immunity is only ever possible, or discussed, with vaccination in mind.

The latest strain is unlikely to mean the vaccine becomes ineffective, but the virus is showing that it may be capable of vaccine escape in a few more mutations. However, the vaccines that we have are likely to be effective with tweaks thanks to the genome profiling that is taking place. The most worrying issue is, would we fall into a place where we needed 2 vaccine programs (old covid and new covid). Also antibodies of sufferers of other strains of covid seem less effective when battling the new strain.

[billy.ronson]

Seeing I am only just recovering from having Covid then I guess I have to hope it was the new strain?

[Hilts]

Lockdowns haven't worked. They've actually accelerated the spread - here and also in other European countries. Whilst isolated cases of bad behaviour have occurred, the pubs, bars, cafes, restaurants have helped keep people take enjoyment in a 'controlled' environment. The blanket closure/restrictions have driven them behind closed doors in houses and flats instead, in close proximity to friends and family - of all ages. Wasn't it in early March we were going to 'flatted the curve' ?

I think folk are beginning to realise that 'lockdowns' are now as much politically as medically motivated.

Youve had a mare here

[Taunton Blue Genie]

One thing for everyone to bear in mind is that even if we are vaccinated against the virus and are immune to it, it will still be possible to of pass on the virus to others by transference by hand e.g. by our touching something tangible that has the virus on it and then going onto touch something else. We are well aware of this concept already, of course, but some people may forget about it in the excitement of getting a vaccination. And as for dating sites, it's best to go for much older women as they will be immunised first.....

[Allez Allez Allez]

One thing for everyone to bear in mind is that even if we are vaccinated against the virus and are immune to it, it will still be possible to of pass on the virus to others by transference by hand e.g. by our touching something tangible that has the virus on it and then going onto touch something else. We are well aware of this concept already, of course, but some people may forget about it in the excitement of getting a vaccination. And as for dating sites, it's best to go for much older women as they will be immunised first.....

Yes, I think that needs to be communicated by the Government in a better way.

The Oxford vaccine has shown signs of reducing transmission, but there isn't a lot of data at the moment.