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The basis of it seems to be that the current vaccines get a lower infection rate quicker by a single dose but it needs to be ready to make it work. The idea that competing commercial entities will be happy to engineer the optimal outcome for people once they have approved vaccines for commercial use is for the fairies!Originally Posted by Tuerto
There was a doctor on the BBC making the point that the initial dose gave the most protection (51%) so it would be better to give more people the initial dose now
Whether or not that'll work or if its a good idea, I have no clue
The theory has some support from the world of health see below however it comes with a caveat at the end :
"""His proposal was backed up by Professor David Salisbury, the man in charge of immunisation at the Department of Health until 2013.
He told Today the numbers were "straightforward".
"You give one dose you get 91% [protection] you give two doses and you get 95% - you are only gaining 4% for giving the second dose," he said.
"With current circumstances, I would strongly urge you to use as many first doses as you possibly can for risk groups and only after you have done all of that come back with second doses."
However, he acknowledged this would be harder to do with the Oxford University vaccine, where the efficacy of two doses is 60%.""
It's all very well for people who've not got direct responsibility to make comments, but in the UK then only people with all the data are Pfizer and the MHRA. The go ahead for a two dose schedule was given by the MHRA and that is the licensed product.
If there is merit in one dose then MHRA would have to approve it otherwise it would be deemed unlicensed use of the product, and should anything go wrong Pfizer would have no responsibility. Indeed the responsibility for use of an unlicensed product usually rests with the prescriber, and such should only be used when there is no clinical alternative.
When you weigh up the length of time it might take to get approval for a one dose vaccine when all those in the pipeline seems to be based on two dose regime anyhow, then it does not seem a practical alternative for what is a short term problem.
Currently Wales share of the Pfizer vaccine alone is enough to cover 1m of the population with two doses. ( ie 5% of 40m doses) Currently the problem is that we are only giving 12,000 injections a week in Wales and unless that steps up rapidly, with second injections needed soon for the groups who have had their first, we are only protecting 6,000 people a week
Isn’t half a dose, then a whole one of the Oxford vaccine producing 92%? Surely this with its far simpler rollout is the one we need to roll out ASAP. Let’s hope the rumours of this happening in January and Feb are true
Glad that Rishi managed to get out of tier 4 the day before so he could secure himself a nice relaxing break
What a mess.
— Nadia Whittome MP (@NadiaWhittomeMP) December 23, 2020
Over 500 MPs couldn’t get into today's “all MPs meeting” about the Covid emergency. Then it was “ended by host”.
Still no answers on vaccine strategy, financial support or exiting Tier 4.
The meeting was run by the minister responsible for logistics... pic.twitter.com/N8Lt2jLodt
ONS estimating that one in sixty had Covid in Wales last week - surely those figures suggest the new variant is prevalent in this country already?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55437183
2+2=5
Looks encouraging;-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ing-to-disease
It may be the new variant, it may be people ignoring the rules, it may be both. Our FM said that for Christmas Day only you can visit one other household, but no overnight stays.
Of the five houses directly opposite where I live, two households have gone away for Christmas, and a third household has guests staying over Christmas.
Small sample but it shows just 40% compliance with the rules. No wonder it's spreading.
Coronavirus: Fresh air 'forgotten weapon' in fight: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55435914
But Dr Hughes - who has become known as "Dr Fresh Air" for his campaigning on the issue - believes it should say "hands, space, face, replace.
He says replacing stale air in a room with fresh air from outside can massively reduce the chances of people becoming infected.
Dr Fitzgerald says it is not about throwing every window open wide all day, but making sure there's enough of a crack to let in fresh air.
And the answer is to add another layer.
"I'd recommend wearing a woolly jumper rather than just a short-sleeved top.
"But that's what we should be doing anyway, to save on heating bills and reduce our energy demand as we all do our bit to tackle climate change."
Dr Hughes says airing rooms for a few minutes several times a day won't lose much heat but will keep people safer.
And his idea for a Christmas gift? Thermal underwear.
The FT charts (not pretty reading for Wales) show that something dramatic happened at the start of December to make Wales' figures sky rocket. Guess that was either the relaxing after the firebreak or the new strain :
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart
Wales seems to have the SE England strain that UK government (speaking on behalf of England) are particularly worried about and a new Welsh strain which isn't yet causing such great concern, but as of yet no evidence of the new SA strain.Our ‘Welsh’ 501Y variant is causing some confusion, we now definitely have two 501Y variants in the country. I’ve had to clarify that a few times. With SA 501Y also trying to join the party. https://twitter.com/SmallRedOne/stat...82107576741895
Another thing ruined by Brain's.
I know about 5 people who had the virus in the last 2 weeks, only known five in total before so it must be the new variant maybe?
Despite most in mid 40’s and one mid 50’s and BAME, symptoms were very mild they say.....weaker strain or just all lucky?
Are you talking about new cases there? If you are, the fire break had been over for.close to a month earlier this month, so, for me, that would suggest that the new strain was responsible! but, then again, there doesn’t seem to be much in the media about the new strain in Wales.
Not quite with this 51% lark. Does it mean 51% of the people who get it are fully protected or that everyone who gets it is only half protected? Imagine the doctor saying, we are going to amputate your leg and there is a 51% chance we'll finish doing it
Yeah, the new cases line is almost vertical from start of December onwards (and the death count is now equally as worrying). Had meant to quote your original post about the new strain in my post sorry. Maybe it's a combination of both ?
Hard to know if England are just a few weeks behind that trajectory for having a later lockdown (though it looks that way to me) or if it is currently worse in Wales for some reason.
If we actually had media in Wales I think there would be a lot more coverage of the fact that we're now the country with the 2nd worse cases rate in the world. Most of the people I speak to seem oblivious to just how bad it is right now here in Wales specifically.
FFS. Weve got no chance. Some people just dont give a sh!t.
Trust in the British people.
I went to my parent's house. The next door neighbour is vulnerable, he lives on his own.
He had his 2 daughters, 1 son, 4 grand kids and 2 great grand-kids around. That was 7 households visiting his. It's been like it there since it started. Some people are playing with fire, no doubt about it, and will only learn if the virus hits. With 1 in 65 people in Wales, probably even more where I live, with the virus symptomatically or asymptomatically there is, theoretically, a 9 in 65 chance that he was visited by someone with the virus.
His 2 daughters and 2 grand kids are there again today (4 households).
Some people are beyond stupid. While most people are sensible this I'm alright Jack attitude is sickening, selfish and totally irresponsible.
It defies belief. I hope they werent there at the same time.?
They were, and just realised I had left out a son-in-law in the list. For some reason the one daughter and one son didn't bring the other half. If the old guy gets it, he's going to struggle at best.
It is completely selfish. There is a chance they will all get it, and not one of them gets ill. Well done to them. But, what they are doing is helping the virus breed. Half of them on the dole or "sickness" benefits, so their next pay cheque is guaranteed. The rest of us go week to week wondering if it is our turn to see our company make cuts.
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