Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[the other bob wilson]

A big adjustment to previous figures from Wuhan overnight;-

"alert Wuhan (China), the epicenter of the pandemic, today reported 1,290 additional deaths that had not been previously counted and reported, bringing the total number of deaths in Wuhan from 2,579 to 3,869, an increase of 50%, as the result of a revision by the Wuhan New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention and Control. As part of this revision, 325 additional cases in Wuhan were also added. Separately, China's National Health Commission (NHC) reported 26 new cases (and no deaths) in its daily report."

Taken from;-

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/china/

[goats]

Denmark Germany Austria Poland starting to open up.....we need to get testing and tracing so we can join them......

[lardy]

Denmark Germany Austria Poland starting to open up.....we need to get testing and tracing so we can join them......

I think the UK is a while off opening up, but more testing and tracing is the way to do it.

[Eric Cartman]

Denmark Germany Austria Poland starting to open up.....we need to get testing and tracing so we can join them......

We had nearly 5000 new cases yesterday and that is without a great deal of community testing. How can we trace contact for that many people?

[goats]

We had nearly 5000 new cases yesterday and that is without a great deal of community testing. How can we trace contact for that many people?

More like get everything ready to do this in a week or two when new infections should be getting lower due to the lockdown.

[the other bob wilson]

The Guardian is running what they call an exclusive claiming that medical staff are being told to wear aprons while treating COVID 19 patients if they run out of gowns, as it appears some hospitals are going to do within hours;-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-without-gowns

[CCFCC3PO]

The Guardian is running what they call an exclusive claiming that medical staff are being told to wear aprons while treating COVID 19 patients if they run out of gowns, as it appears some hospitals are going to do within hours;-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-without-gowns

Shambles isn't it?

[the other bob wilson]

Shambles isn't it?

Yep, Hancock was talking as if lack of PPE was not an issue a fortnight ago.

[CCFCC3PO]

Yep, Hancock was talking as if lack of PPE was not an issue a fortnight ago.

I see all the talk was of a vaccine taskforce today. It's almost like we are being told to look a long way into the distance so that we can miss the horrors that are in our direct line of sight. I don't have much confidence that Labour would have done a better job, but I am fairly confident they couldn't have done much worse.

[ToTaL ITK]

I see all the talk was of a vaccine taskforce today. It's almost like we are being told to look a long way into the distance so that we can miss the horrors that are in our direct line of sight. I don't have much confidence that Labour would have done a better job, but I am fairly confident they couldn't have done much worse.

This is a first test for every government in the world and it's interesting see how they react.
It's hard to know who would have done what, but there have been some right f#ck ups

[CCFCC3PO]

So, the WHO have poured cold water on the usefulness of anti-body tests.

But the WHO cautioned against investing too much in these tests.

Speaking in Geneva, the WHO's Dr Maria van Kerkhove said there was "no evidence" that having had the virus would guarantee immunity.

She said initial evidence did not suggest large numbers of people were developing antibodies after having the virus, meaning the chances of creating "herd immunity" were not high.

This is concerning, we really need to see evidence that the virus provides some sort of immunity. Otherwise, we may be facing periods of lockdown for a long time.

[goats]

So, the WHO have poured cold water on the usefulness of anti-body tests.



This is concerning, we really need to see evidence that the virus provides some sort of immunity. Otherwise, we may be facing periods of lockdown for a long time.

We need the vaccine anyway for the old and vulnerable, let’s hope the oxford uni one is the real deal. Say they are producing a million by September, that’s how confident they are.

[CCFCC3PO]

We need the vaccine anyway for the old and vulnerable, let’s hope the oxford uni one is the real deal. Say they are producing a million by September, that’s how confident they are.

They currently rate their chances of success at 80%. That is a low figure for this field of work. There is still a lot that is unknown about the disease. If immunity cannot be guaranteed after recovering from covid-19, does that make it more difficult to produce an effective vaccine? If the virus mutates in the meantime, does that make the vaccine ineffective?

[jon1959]

They currently rate their chances of success at 80%. That is a low figure for this field of work. There is still a lot that is unknown about the disease. If immunity cannot be guaranteed after recovering from covid-19, does that make it more difficult to produce an effective vaccine? If the virus mutates in the meantime, does that make the vaccine ineffective?

Is 80% chance of success a low figure?

I was listening to a radio interview earlier today with an expert (now they are back in fashion) and she said that most attempts at a vaccine will fail - but that there are usually a range of vaccine projects going on in parallel and it is the chance of one of them working that is important.

In the past we have had a 40 year wait with no vaccine for AIDS but quite quick progress on vaccines for Ziko and Ebola (both getting to clinical trial stage within a year). Add to that the massive level of international collaboration, new technical and clinical advances, governments helping to underwrite costs (including speculative production costs before the vaccine has been proved) and it feels as if we should have some grounds for cautious optimism. Replaying the track record of vaccine searches from decades past may not be the best guide to what will happen this time.

I have no expertise at all in this and no more knowledge than the average web surfer and news watcher - but there is a mood music out there from people who will not want to be associated with failure than makes me more positive than some on here.

[CCFCC3PO]

Is 80% chance of success a low figure?

I was listening to a radio interview earlier today with an expert (now they are back in fashion) and she said that most attempts at a vaccine will fail - but that there are usually a range of vaccine projects going on in parallel and it is the chance of one of them working that is important.

In the past we have had a 40 year wait with no vaccine for AIDS but quite quick progress on vaccines for Ziko and Ebola (both getting to clinical trial stage within a year). Add to that the massive level of international collaboration, new technical and clinical advances, governments helping to underwrite costs (including speculative production costs before the vaccine has been proved) and it feels as if we should have some grounds for cautious optimism. Replaying the track record of vaccine searches from decades past may not be the best guide to what will happen this time.

I have no expertise at all in this and no more knowledge than the average web surfer and news watcher - but there is a mood music out there from people who will not want to be associated with failure than makes me more positive than some on here.

At least you now acknowledge that the Zika vaccine wasn't produced in 7 months.. It was a shame that your research stopped after 3 Google clicks, and in your haste to score some sort of victory, you provided false information. Currently there is no Zika vaccine, people are given advice on how to avoid mosquito bites when travelling to infected countries.

I qualify my skepticism for the production of a vaccine by September or by next April or next October by three things. The first being that the quickest vaccine produced took significantly longer than 18 months. The second by the sheer volume that needs to be produced - 6 billion, although I appreciate people will be thinking of their own country only. The third by the track record so far, "antibody tests in weeks" and the lack of tests.

I am not saying that a vaccine in record time is impossible. I just think there should be more caution because a lot of people seem to be thinking that it is set in stone. You are right in that previous vaccine production times are not, necessarily, an indicator of future success. However, it does illustrate the difficulties in producing a vaccine.

[CCFCC3PO]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ine-covid.html

This is an interesting article I think.

[Elwood Blues]

You mean Her Majesty's Opposition would be doing what opposition parties have been doing for centuries?

The opposition has to tread a fine line between being supportive but critical where necessary.

To be fair I think Labour have done this pretty well most of the time and have made some fair points.

Don't agree with him on the exit plan though.

They should perhaps keep the opposition parties informed on a confidential basis but I don't think the plan should be disseminated more widely until later in thr next three weeks because I am sure it will.ned to be amended in that timr

[xsnaggle]

The opposition has to tread a fine line between being supportive but critical where necessary.

To be fair I think Labour have done this pretty well most of the time and have made some fair points.

Don't agree with him on the exit plan though.

They should perhaps keep the opposition parties informed on a confidential basis but I don't think the plan should be disseminated more widely until later in thr next three weeks because I am sure it will.ned to be amended in that timr

The problem with that at the moment is that there doesn't seem to be much confidentiality going on in the labour party at the moment. They cannot even keep their own internal reports internal. But that said it is better to keep the opposition in the picture. KS should be made a member of the Privy council soon and that will give him more person al confidential access.

[CCFCC3PO]

The problem with that at the moment is that there doesn't seem to be much confidentiality going on in the labour party at the moment. They cannot even keep their own internal reports internal. But that said it is better to keep the opposition in the picture. KS should be made a member of the Privy council soon and that will give him more person al confidential access.

Sir Keir Starmer has been on the Privy council sine July 2017.

[dandywarhol]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-new...demic-21881239

Running out of gowns.

[surge]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-new...demic-21881239

Running out of gowns.

Welsh govt spokesperson: "The Welsh govt is keen to reassure everyone it has PPE stock and we currently do not anticipate any disruption to supply. We therefore do not expect this alert to be enacted in Wales at the present time."

https://twitter.com/i/status/1251250729823715329

Can't help but think some of that was talking to the suppliers more than the public.

[Gofer Blue]

This is an interesting overview of vaccine production:

https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/behind-the...s-complicated/

The video was produced by GSK 4 years ago.

As a retired industrial pharmacist who has had a lot of experience in the manufacture of sterile injectable products (not vaccines per se but the production process of the finished product would be essentially the same) I would say that in parallel with the current R&D that's going on, the newly formed vaccine team need to be thinking well ahead to the more mundane but critical question of manufacturing facilities and supply of packaging materials.

Vaccines will be need to be processed in specialist aseptic facilities. There will be a requirement for tens of millions of vials (for the UK alone) which will need to be pre-sterilised along with the other component parts such as rubber stoppers, alu caps, and disposable syringes. A lot of these components are imported from abroad, in particular glass vials from the main suppliers like Schott and St Gobain. We could find ourselves in competition with other countries as we are with PPE at the moment, so we need to get talking to these companies asap!

If the product needs to be freeze dried then freeze drying capacity is an absolutely critical factor. Industrial freeze driers are not off-the-shelf items! If freeze dried then we will also need vials of water for injection to reconstitute the product - essentially doubling the number of vials needed!

Hopefully the vaccine team will include experts from manufacturing and not just R&D, so we don't find ourselves in the situation where we have a brilliant vaccine but nowhere to manufacture/fill it!

[CCFCC3PO]

This is an interesting overview of vaccine production:

https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/behind-the...s-complicated/

The video was produced by GSK 4 years ago.

As a retired industrial pharmacist who has had a lot of experience in the manufacture of sterile injectable products (not vaccines per se but the production process of the finished product would be essentially the same) I would say that in parallel with the current R&D that's going on, the newly formed vaccine team need to be thinking well ahead to the more mundane but critical question of manufacturing facilities and supply of packaging materials.

Vaccines will be need to be processed in specialist aseptic facilities. There will be a requirement for tens of millions of vials (for the UK alone) which will need to be pre-sterilised along with the other component parts such as rubber stoppers, alu caps, and disposable syringes. A lot of these components are imported from abroad, in particular glass vials from the main suppliers like Schott and St Gobain. We could find ourselves in competition with other countries as we are with PPE at the moment, so we need to get talking to these companies asap!

If the product needs to be freeze dried then freeze drying capacity is an absolutely critical factor. Industrial freeze driers are not off-the-shelf items! If freeze dried then we will also need vials of water for injection to reconstitute the product - essentially doubling the number of vials needed!

Hopefully the vaccine team will include experts from manufacturing and not just R&D, so we don't find ourselves in the situation where we have a brilliant vaccine but nowhere to manufacture/fill it!

The Oxford University team appear to have thought of the manufacturing element of the process, and have the potential to produce 1 million doses. Let's say that their vaccine is a complete success, is that something that they "own" and sell on to other pharmaceutical companies around the world? Or is it something that becomes public domain, allowing countries to produce their own vaccines locally (where possible)?

[Gofer Blue]

The Oxford University team appear to have thought of the manufacturing element of the process, and have the potential to produce 1 million doses. Let's say that their vaccine is a complete success, is that something that they "own" and sell on to other pharmaceutical companies around the world? Or is it something that becomes public domain, allowing countries to produce their own vaccines locally (where possible)?

One would hope in the current situation that the latter would be the case!

[Baloo]

Why do you speak to people like that? Why be such an arse?

It’s noticeable that your rarely witness self-inflated pomposity from the authorities in these fields.