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Thread: Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

  1. #1276

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    I expected a very big spike in death toll today after the long weekend, as there is normally one after every weekend, but sad though each death is it doesn't look as bad as it could be. Perhaps we are getting over the top of the curve?
    Perhaps I missed it, but I've not seen any acknowledgement of the bulk of the 400 plus additional deaths outside of hospitals announced by the ONS earlier in the week. In saying that, I believe the daily figures from Scotland and Wales have been adjusted to include them (I'm pretty sure both countries recorded their biggest number of daily deaths on Wednesday), but not England and Northern Ireland which probably means that at least three quarters of those deaths are missing from the total shown here;-

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

    As can be seen though, with the exception of one day (which included a one off adjustment) the new cases figures for this month have remained fairly steady even though the number of people being tested has been rising.

  2. #1277

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Denmark Germany Austria Poland starting to open up.....we need to get testing and tracing so we can join them......

  3. #1278

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by goats View Post
    Denmark Germany Austria Poland starting to open up.....we need to get testing and tracing so we can join them......
    We had nearly 5000 new cases yesterday and that is without a great deal of community testing. How can we trace contact for that many people?

  4. #1279

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by goats View Post
    Denmark Germany Austria Poland starting to open up.....we need to get testing and tracing so we can join them......
    I think the UK is a while off opening up, but more testing and tracing is the way to do it.

  5. #1280

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
    We had nearly 5000 new cases yesterday and that is without a great deal of community testing. How can we trace contact for that many people?
    More like get everything ready to do this in a week or two when new infections should be getting lower due to the lockdown.

  6. #1281

    Re: Coronavirus update

    The Guardian is running what they call an exclusive claiming that medical staff are being told to wear aprons while treating COVID 19 patients if they run out of gowns, as it appears some hospitals are going to do within hours;-

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-without-gowns

  7. #1282
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    The Guardian is running what they call an exclusive claiming that medical staff are being told to wear aprons while treating COVID 19 patients if they run out of gowns, as it appears some hospitals are going to do within hours;-

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-without-gowns
    Shambles isn't it?

  8. #1283

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO View Post
    Shambles isn't it?
    Yep, Hancock was talking as if lack of PPE was not an issue a fortnight ago.

  9. #1284
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    Yep, Hancock was talking as if lack of PPE was not an issue a fortnight ago.
    I see all the talk was of a vaccine taskforce today. It's almost like we are being told to look a long way into the distance so that we can miss the horrors that are in our direct line of sight. I don't have much confidence that Labour would have done a better job, but I am fairly confident they couldn't have done much worse.

  10. #1285

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO View Post
    I see all the talk was of a vaccine taskforce today. It's almost like we are being told to look a long way into the distance so that we can miss the horrors that are in our direct line of sight. I don't have much confidence that Labour would have done a better job, but I am fairly confident they couldn't have done much worse.
    This is a first test for every government in the world and it's interesting see how they react.
    It's hard to know who would have done what, but there have been some right f#ck ups

  11. #1286
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    So, the WHO have poured cold water on the usefulness of anti-body tests.

    But the WHO cautioned against investing too much in these tests.

    Speaking in Geneva, the WHO's Dr Maria van Kerkhove said there was "no evidence" that having had the virus would guarantee immunity.

    She said initial evidence did not suggest large numbers of people were developing antibodies after having the virus, meaning the chances of creating "herd immunity" were not high.
    This is concerning, we really need to see evidence that the virus provides some sort of immunity. Otherwise, we may be facing periods of lockdown for a long time.

  12. #1287
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ine-covid.html

    This is an interesting article I think.

  13. #1288

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO View Post
    So, the WHO have poured cold water on the usefulness of anti-body tests.



    This is concerning, we really need to see evidence that the virus provides some sort of immunity. Otherwise, we may be facing periods of lockdown for a long time.
    We need the vaccine anyway for the old and vulnerable, let’s hope the oxford uni one is the real deal. Say they are producing a million by September, that’s how confident they are.

  14. #1289
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by goats View Post
    We need the vaccine anyway for the old and vulnerable, let’s hope the oxford uni one is the real deal. Say they are producing a million by September, that’s how confident they are.
    They currently rate their chances of success at 80%. That is a low figure for this field of work. There is still a lot that is unknown about the disease. If immunity cannot be guaranteed after recovering from covid-19, does that make it more difficult to produce an effective vaccine? If the virus mutates in the meantime, does that make the vaccine ineffective?

  15. #1290
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO View Post
    They currently rate their chances of success at 80%. That is a low figure for this field of work. There is still a lot that is unknown about the disease. If immunity cannot be guaranteed after recovering from covid-19, does that make it more difficult to produce an effective vaccine? If the virus mutates in the meantime, does that make the vaccine ineffective?
    Is 80% chance of success a low figure?

    I was listening to a radio interview earlier today with an expert (now they are back in fashion) and she said that most attempts at a vaccine will fail - but that there are usually a range of vaccine projects going on in parallel and it is the chance of one of them working that is important.

    In the past we have had a 40 year wait with no vaccine for AIDS but quite quick progress on vaccines for Ziko and Ebola (both getting to clinical trial stage within a year). Add to that the massive level of international collaboration, new technical and clinical advances, governments helping to underwrite costs (including speculative production costs before the vaccine has been proved) and it feels as if we should have some grounds for cautious optimism. Replaying the track record of vaccine searches from decades past may not be the best guide to what will happen this time.

    I have no expertise at all in this and no more knowledge than the average web surfer and news watcher - but there is a mood music out there from people who will not want to be associated with failure than makes me more positive than some on here.

  16. #1291

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    You mean Her Majesty's Opposition would be doing what opposition parties have been doing for centuries?
    The opposition has to tread a fine line between being supportive but critical where necessary.

    To be fair I think Labour have done this pretty well most of the time and have made some fair points.

    Don't agree with him on the exit plan though.

    They should perhaps keep the opposition parties informed on a confidential basis but I don't think the plan should be disseminated more widely until later in thr next three weeks because I am sure it will.ned to be amended in that timr

  17. #1292
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Elwood Blues View Post
    The opposition has to tread a fine line between being supportive but critical where necessary.

    To be fair I think Labour have done this pretty well most of the time and have made some fair points.

    Don't agree with him on the exit plan though.

    They should perhaps keep the opposition parties informed on a confidential basis but I don't think the plan should be disseminated more widely until later in thr next three weeks because I am sure it will.ned to be amended in that timr
    The problem with that at the moment is that there doesn't seem to be much confidentiality going on in the labour party at the moment. They cannot even keep their own internal reports internal. But that said it is better to keep the opposition in the picture. KS should be made a member of the Privy council soon and that will give him more person al confidential access.

  18. #1293

  19. #1294

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by dandywarhol View Post
    Welsh govt spokesperson: "The Welsh govt is keen to reassure everyone it has PPE stock and we currently do not anticipate any disruption to supply. We therefore do not expect this alert to be enacted in Wales at the present time."

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1251250729823715329
    Can't help but think some of that was talking to the suppliers more than the public.

  20. #1295
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by jon1959 View Post
    Is 80% chance of success a low figure?

    I was listening to a radio interview earlier today with an expert (now they are back in fashion) and she said that most attempts at a vaccine will fail - but that there are usually a range of vaccine projects going on in parallel and it is the chance of one of them working that is important.

    In the past we have had a 40 year wait with no vaccine for AIDS but quite quick progress on vaccines for Ziko and Ebola (both getting to clinical trial stage within a year). Add to that the massive level of international collaboration, new technical and clinical advances, governments helping to underwrite costs (including speculative production costs before the vaccine has been proved) and it feels as if we should have some grounds for cautious optimism. Replaying the track record of vaccine searches from decades past may not be the best guide to what will happen this time.

    I have no expertise at all in this and no more knowledge than the average web surfer and news watcher - but there is a mood music out there from people who will not want to be associated with failure than makes me more positive than some on here.
    At least you now acknowledge that the Zika vaccine wasn't produced in 7 months.. It was a shame that your research stopped after 3 Google clicks, and in your haste to score some sort of victory, you provided false information. Currently there is no Zika vaccine, people are given advice on how to avoid mosquito bites when travelling to infected countries.

    I qualify my skepticism for the production of a vaccine by September or by next April or next October by three things. The first being that the quickest vaccine produced took significantly longer than 18 months. The second by the sheer volume that needs to be produced - 6 billion, although I appreciate people will be thinking of their own country only. The third by the track record so far, "antibody tests in weeks" and the lack of tests.

    I am not saying that a vaccine in record time is impossible. I just think there should be more caution because a lot of people seem to be thinking that it is set in stone. You are right in that previous vaccine production times are not, necessarily, an indicator of future success. However, it does illustrate the difficulties in producing a vaccine.

  21. #1296
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by xsnaggle View Post
    The problem with that at the moment is that there doesn't seem to be much confidentiality going on in the labour party at the moment. They cannot even keep their own internal reports internal. But that said it is better to keep the opposition in the picture. KS should be made a member of the Privy council soon and that will give him more person al confidential access.
    Sir Keir Starmer has been on the Privy council sine July 2017.

  22. #1297

    Re: Coronavirus update

    This is an interesting overview of vaccine production:

    https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/behind-the...s-complicated/

    The video was produced by GSK 4 years ago.

    As a retired industrial pharmacist who has had a lot of experience in the manufacture of sterile injectable products (not vaccines per se but the production process of the finished product would be essentially the same) I would say that in parallel with the current R&D that's going on, the newly formed vaccine team need to be thinking well ahead to the more mundane but critical question of manufacturing facilities and supply of packaging materials.

    Vaccines will be need to be processed in specialist aseptic facilities. There will be a requirement for tens of millions of vials (for the UK alone) which will need to be pre-sterilised along with the other component parts such as rubber stoppers, alu caps, and disposable syringes. A lot of these components are imported from abroad, in particular glass vials from the main suppliers like Schott and St Gobain. We could find ourselves in competition with other countries as we are with PPE at the moment, so we need to get talking to these companies asap!

    If the product needs to be freeze dried then freeze drying capacity is an absolutely critical factor. Industrial freeze driers are not off-the-shelf items! If freeze dried then we will also need vials of water for injection to reconstitute the product - essentially doubling the number of vials needed!

    Hopefully the vaccine team will include experts from manufacturing and not just R&D, so we don't find ourselves in the situation where we have a brilliant vaccine but nowhere to manufacture/fill it!

  23. #1298

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO View Post
    At least you now acknowledge that the Zika vaccine wasn't produced in 7 months.. It was a shame that your research stopped after 3 Google clicks, and in your haste to score some sort of victory, you provided false information. Currently there is no Zika vaccine, people are given advice on how to avoid mosquito bites when travelling to infected countries.

    I qualify my skepticism for the production of a vaccine by September or by next April or next October by three things. The first being that the quickest vaccine produced took significantly longer than 18 months. The second by the sheer volume that needs to be produced - 6 billion, although I appreciate people will be thinking of their own country only. The third by the track record so far, "antibody tests in weeks" and the lack of tests.

    I am not saying that a vaccine in record time is impossible. I just think there should be more caution because a lot of people seem to be thinking that it is set in stone. You are right in that previous vaccine production times are not, necessarily, an indicator of future success. However, it does illustrate the difficulties in producing a vaccine.
    Why do you speak to people like that? Why be such an arse?

  24. #1299

    Re: Coronavirus update

    NEW: The inside story of the Ventilator Challenge - the muddled thinking, the wasted time the political egoism. It's a mad tale. Stay with me. Me with my superb
    @ft colleague @Michael_Pooler 1/Thread
    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status...34219139665920

  25. #1300

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Croesy Blue View Post
    Why do you speak to people like that? Why be such an arse?
    It’s noticeable that your rarely witness self-inflated pomposity from the authorities in these fields.

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