The U.K. is currently on the exact same trajectory for deaths as Italy

[Croesy Blue]

https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus...tory_as_italy/

Don’t let anyone tell you statistical models don’t mean anything. They’ve been saying this for a month.

Please stay safe,at this rate the country will have another 3000+ deaths in 2 weeks.

[Baker]

Literally just read this too. Posted about it in the COVID thread.

It's extremely alarming. Thousands of people in the UK will die guaranteed due to no-one taking it seriously enough. It will literally take losing a loved one for some of these people to take it seriously. Maybe even not then.

[Croesy Blue]

My grandparents are very ill and I’ve come to the conclusion there’s a very good chance I won’t get to see them again or attend their funerals. There staying in but one of them has to go to the hospital, so quite likely to get it.

I don’t know what’s wrong with people, some pubs have been leaving the back doors open for people to go drinking.

[Baker]

Sorry to hear that.

It's awful hearing similar stories of people dying alone and funerals being ruined. It'll honestly take an army to force people indoors and I for one would welcome this measure with open arms.

[Croesy Blue]

I think it’s coming tbh. I reckon tomorrow London will be locked down and then the rest of the country will follow.

[Rock_Flock_of_Five]

My grandparents are very ill and I’ve come to the conclusion there’s a very good chance I won’t get to see them again or attend their funerals. There staying in but one of them has to go to the hospital, so quite likely to get it.

I don’t know what’s wrong with people, some pubs have been leaving the back doors open for people to go drinking.

Is that right about some pubs leaving the back door open? That's shocking, the landlords should be told they'll lose their licence if they try to defy the government's orders to close their doors.

[BLUETIT]

Is that right about some pubs leaving the back door open? That's shocking, the landlords should be told they'll lose their licence if they try to defy the government's orders to close their doors.

Haven’t looked into this, but is there some kind of fine or threat of imprisonment in place ???

[Maurice Swan]

Think compulsory reading should be:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ust-start.html

How can people still think it is not serious? It IS existence threatening to life as it is known.

[B. Oddie]

Is that right about some pubs leaving the back door open? That's shocking, the landlords should be told they'll lose their licence if they try to defy the government's orders to close their doors.

Yes, and on this occasion I can say that the Royal Oak in Bryn nr Maesteg was one.

[Maurice Swan]

Also just read the Bill before Parliament tomorrow...this includes many worrying checks on liberty, including:

"The bill will also allow people to be detained under mental health laws if one doctor deems that they are in need of urgent treatment, rather than two."

Very worrying.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/e...esponse-plans:

[CCFCC3PO]

https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus...tory_as_italy/

Don’t let anyone tell you statistical models don’t mean anything. They’ve been saying this for a month.

Please stay safe,at this rate the country will have another 3000+ deaths in 2 weeks.

Key words there.... AT THIS RATE.

It could be even worse, or it could be better. The model has so many parameters, and the growth is seen to be exponential, that just altering one parameter could have huge consequences.

I will now only go to the shops for food. Apart from that, I am staying in although there are open areas I can walk around as well, so will do that.

[Croesy Blue]

That graph is 2 days behind and we have had the exact same numbers for the 2 following days.

Incubation period is 2 weeks and we haven’t done any more than Italy did so realistically we are getting exactly the same for the next 2 weeks unless we get a miracle.

We aren’t even on lockdown yet and London is more dense than any Italian city. I’d say more likely it’ll be worse at this rate.

[CCFCC3PO]

That graph is 2 days behind and we have had the exact same numbers for the 2 following days.

Incubation period is 2 weeks and we haven’t done any more than Italy did so realistically we are getting exactly the same for the next 2 weeks unless we get a miracle.

We aren’t even on lockdown yet and London is more dense than any Italian city. I’d say more likely it’ll be worse at this rate.

I think London is extremely worrying, like you say any action will take at least 2 weeks to have an impact. I just think that, at this early stage, there are not enough data points. One of the issues we will have is compliance. Some people will say "They closed the pubs last weekend, people are still dying, so it's not working" and will start to not comply. We are in for a sobering 2 weeks at the least, and I wouldn't mind guessing that the panic buying frenzy may be a hotbed for virus spread.

But, have you seen the Spanish figures? Their rate of rise is steeper than the Italian's. Like I say, the UK figures could get better, the public (albeit in small numbers) will have seen what is happening in other countries who are ahead of us in the curve. I put my dad on lockdown last Sunday (ahead of the Government announcement) and I have been working from home 2 weeks (ahead of the announcement). I've spoken to others who have done the same. I reckon there should be a lockdown in all major cities or areas with a high population density (rather than a national lockdown).

[CCFCC3PO]

That graph is 2 days behind and we have had the exact same numbers for the 2 following days.

Incubation period is 2 weeks and we haven’t done any more than Italy did so realistically we are getting exactly the same for the next 2 weeks unless we get a miracle.

We aren’t even on lockdown yet and London is more dense than any Italian city. I’d say more likely it’ll be worse at this rate.

No cause for celebration, but figures today at 281 compared to Italy on 366.

[dml1954]

In the interests of balance and not wishing to deny the seriousness of the situation, Italy has the second oldest (over 65’s) population in the World. Uk is 24th. Japan is 1st but has had very few virus cases reported. The figures mean little in terms of predicting what will happen and it is difficult to compare them country to country. There is no way of knowing if UK will follow Italy or not. Infection and death rates are still low in comparison to overall population.

[Croesy Blue]

In the interests of balance and not wishing to deny the seriousness of the situation, Italy has the second oldest (over 65’s) population in the World. Uk is 24th. Japan is 1st but has had very few virus cases reported. The figures mean little in terms of predicting what will happen and it is difficult to compare them country to country. There is no way of knowing if UK will follow Italy or not. Infection and death rates are still low in comparison to overall population.

Still think this?

[dml1954]

Still think this?

Yes. It all still applies just as much now as it did when I posted it. Who knows where the figures will end up. We are following Italy but still well behind them in deaths figures and it appears our figures are slowing like theirs.

[Organ Morgan.]

This article published earlier, if accurate, would explain why Italian numbers are increasing.

Israeli doctor in Italy: We no longer help those over 60 - https://www.jpost.com/International/...over-60-621856

[Baker]

This article published earlier, if accurate, would explain why Italian numbers are increasing.

Israeli doctor in Italy: We no longer help those over 60 - https://www.jpost.com/International/...over-60-621856

Its the same here with people over 70 pretty much. Most of them won't survive the process. My good friend working on the frontline of the NHS told me the same. As things get worse he mentioned it wouldn't surprise him if we lower it to 60 also as there's no equipment around. 60 is not old let's be honest. It's haunting to think my parents wouldn't even be given the chance to live in Italy right now.

[Croesy Blue]

There is no way of knowing if UK will follow Italy or not. Infection and death rates are still low in comparison to overall population.

All wrong I’m afraid. People need to be careful.

[dml1954]

All wrong I’m afraid. People need to be careful.

Please tell me what is wrong with the paragraph you refer to. Where have I said that people don't need to be careful ? Lets have some balance is all I am saying. You have no idea whether we will follow Italy or not but keep referring to it as if we are/will.

[Tuerto]

Please tell me what is wrong with the paragraph you refer to. Where have I said that people don't need to be careful ? Lets have some balance is all I am saying. You have no idea whether we will follow Italy or not but keep referring to it as if we are/will.

I agree with you. We do need some balance on here. Most people are being as sensible as possible, some aren't, we can't change that, all we can do as individuals is stay calm, try to do the right thing and help others out where possible. Posting what could be on here isn't particularly helpful in my opinion, there are alot of people who read this board who may be stuck at home, elderly, sick, vulnerable and worried shitless over all of this. I'm not saying that people shouldn't post their opinions and thoughts, what i am saying is that we do have a duty to those who may be in a worse situation than many of us and who read this board as an outlet for information and a way of getting away from the day to day worries. People need to be careful with their words.

[the other bob wilson]

I agree with you. We do need some balance on here. Most people are being as sensible as possible, some aren't, we can't change that, all we can do as individuals is stay calm, try to do the right thing and help others out where possible. Posting what could be on here isn't particularly helpful in my opinion, there are alot of people who read this board who may be stuck at home, elderly, sick, vulnerable and worried shitless over all of this. I'm not saying that people shouldn't post their opinions and thoughts, what i am saying is that we do have a duty to those who may be in a worse situation than many of us and who read this board as an outlet for information and a way of getting away from the day to day worries. People need to be careful with their words.

[Croesy Blue]

This article published earlier, if accurate, would explain why Italian numbers are increasing.

Israeli doctor in Italy: We no longer help those over 60 - https://www.jpost.com/International/...over-60-621856

It doesn’t say they aren’t helping them just respirators are going to people under 60 as priority.

[Baloo]

In the interests of balnce and not wishing to deny the seriousness of the situation, Italy has the second oldest (over 65’s) population in the World. Uk is 24th. Japan is 1st but has had very few virus cases reported. The figures mean little in terms of predicting what will happen and it is difficult to compare them country to country. There is no way of knowing if UK will follow Italy or not. Infection and death rates are still low in comparison to overall population.

I believe Germany has the 3rd highest over 65 population and a fraction of deaths compared to Italy and significantly lower than the UK to date. It also has a high number of cases. It looks like there are many more complex factors involved here.