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I did. Using the comparative updated PHW data the UK death total today is 47136. Wales deaths sadly 2491.Originally Posted by Rjk
That's 5.28% of the total, about average for our population size. Certainly well above the 3.3% you mentioned.
As far as the ONS report from Cyril the coaches is concerned I looked at it briefly and noted that whilst Wales had less excess deaths than England in the Jan- June 2020 period there were a lot of important variables not included. The level of obesity in patients treated, the BAME status...these are things that we already know make a significant difference to outcomes.
At the end of all this none of the UK home countries has done very well in handling this pandemic, and its not over yet!
you are comparing different things there, the 2491 figure is all deaths where Covid 19 was mentioned at all, whereas the 47136 is where covid is deemed to be the cause of death.
the total figure for the uk where covid is mentioned is a lot higher, and the figure for wales where covid is deemed to be the cause of death is around about 1500.
You shouldn't combine the two
see easier post which shows PHE data sources and PHW data sources. Im trying to compare apples with apples. The 2491 figure for Wales is comparable to the PHE figures for data sources, and the PHW site itself states that the Wales data is only for hospital and care homes so not complete
Aren’t the figures where COVID is said be the cause of death untrustworthy as well. People who were on the verge of dying with other illnesses who tested positive for COVID just ticked off as a COVID death.
I think the total excess deaths is the most sensible comparison.
No, you are comparing a figure for all cases that mention covid 19 to all ones that deem it to be the cause of death
Yes, the England figures include anyone who ever tested positive for Covid whether treated or asymptomatic. If they died from other causes like an accident or heart attack they are included as Covid deaths.
the cleanest data is the excess deaths, which Wales accounts for about 3% of the total for the UK
The PHW data is tested or suspected who died in hospital or nursing homes. The ONS data all deaths where covid confirmed or suspected. The Wales official figures are the PHW ones, The England official figures include the broader group including ONS data.
For comparison the Wales ONS data must be used to compare with England PHE data.
The PHW website explains their calculations very clearly
This is taken directly from the ONS site on the latest numbers by country that gives the like for like comparison that Rjk is referencing.
In England, including deaths that occurred up to 17 July 2020 but were registered up to 25 July, of those we have processed so far, the number involving COVID-19 was 48,790; the comparative number of death notifications reported by the DHSC on GOV.UK was 40,680.
In Wales, including deaths that occurred up to 17 July but were registered up to 25 July, of those we have processed so far, the number involving COVID-19 was 2,501; the comparative number of death notifications reported by the DHSC on GOV.UK was 1,546 and PHW numbers, which come from the same source as the DHSC figures but are continuously updated, showed 1,547 deaths.
There will be a vaccine within twelve months.
Experts say it is mutating into a less dangerous virus and less and less people will die from it, so it will become less of a problem over time, until next year when we can vaccinate against it.
I didn't check the date of the post, but some people still believe this is the case, and many people say they wouldn't have the vaccine anyway!
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